NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ÇINARCIK DAM FAILURE ON THE ORHANEL İ RIVER A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY FIRAT BA Ğ IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING JANUARY 2005 Approval of the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof.Dr. Canan ÖZGEN Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Erdal ÇOKÇA Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Asst. Prof. Dr. Zafer BOZKU Ş Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Mustafa GÖ ĞÜŞ (METU, CE) Asst. Prof. Dr. Zafer BOZKU Ş (METU, CE) Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nuray TOKYAY (METU, CE) Assoc. Prof. Dr. İsmail AYDIN (METU, CE) Dr. Mehmet Ali KÖKPINAR (DS İ) I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and pre- sented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all mate- rial and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name : FIRAT BA Ğ Signature : iii ABSTRACT NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE ÇINARCIK DAM FAILURE ON THE ORHANEL İ RIVER Ba ğ, Fırat M.Sc., Department of Civil Engineering Supervisor : Asst. Prof. Dr. Zafer BOZKU Ş January 2005, 131 pages This thesis analyzes the probable outcome of the fictitious failure of a dam under a set of pre-defined scenarios, within the framework of a case study, the case subject being the Çınarcık Dam located within Bursa Province of Turkey. The failure of the dam is not ana- lyzed neither structural nor hydraulic-wise but is assumed to be triggered when certain critical criteria are exceeded. Hence, the analyses focus on the aftermath of the failure and strive to anticipate the level of inundation downstream of the dam itself. For the pur- pose of the analyses, the FLDWAV software developed by the National Weather Service of USA is used to spatially and temporally predict the flow profiles, water surface eleva- tions and discharges occurring downstream of the Çınarcık Dam under the defined set of scenarios. Based on these analyses, indicative inundation maps and settlements under risk will be identified, and the thesis study will further address some available pre-event measures that may be taken in advance. Keywords: FLDWAV, Dam Failures, Breach, Numerical Simulation, Çınarcık Dam iv ÖZ ORHANEL İ NEH İRİ ÜZER İNDEK İ ÇINARCIK BARAJI YIKILMASININ NÜMER İK BENZE Şİ Mİ Ba ğ, Fırat Yüksek Lisans, İnşaat Mühendisli ği Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi : Yrd. Doç. Dr. Zafer BOZKU Ş Ocak 2005, 131 sayfa Bu tez çalı şması, önceden belirlenmi ş bir dizi senaryo çerçevesinde kurmaca bir baraj yıkılmasının olası etkilerini, bir durum çalı şması çerçevesinde analiz etmektedir. Durum çalı şmasının konusu Türkiye’nin Bursa İli’nde yer alan Çınarcık Barajı’dır. Barajın yıkıl- ması yapısal ya da hidrolik anlamda analiz edilmemekte; yıkılmanın belirli kritik kıstaslar aşıldı ğında tetiklendi ği varsayılmaktadır. Dolayısıyla analizler, yıkılmanın ardından ger- çekle şen olumsuz sonuçlara odaklanmakta ve barajın mansabındaki ta şkın düzeyini ön- görmeye çalı şmaktadır. Analizler sırasında Çınarcık Barajı’nın mansabında gerçekleşen akı ş profillerini, su yüzü kotlarını ve de şarj de ğerlerini, tanımlanan senaryolar çerçevesin- de uzamsal ve zamansal olarak tahmin etmek amacıyla, Amerika Birle şik Devletleri’nin resmi bir kurumu olan “National Weather Service” tarafından geliştirilmi ş olan FLDWAV yazılımı kullanılmı ştır. Bu analizler esas alınarak, gösterge düzeyinde ta şkın haritaları ve bunlara göre risk altında olan yerle şim yerleri tespit edilecektir. Tez çalı şması ayrıca olay öncesi alınabilecek mevcut bazı önlemlere de de ğinecektir. Anahtar Kelimeler: FLDWAV, Baraj Yıkılması, Gedik, Sayısal Benzetim, Çınarcık Barajı v To the welfare of people vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express his deepest gratitude to his supervisor Asst. Prof. Dr. Zafer Bozku ş for his guidance, advice, criticism, encouragements and insight throughout the research. The author would also like to thank the State Hydraulic Authority (DSİ) for the helpful as- sistance, and Kırsal ve Kentsel Geli şme Vakfı (Rural and Urban Development Founda- tion) for their understanding. The author is further grateful to Mrs. Nursun Do ğru for the motivation provided. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ..................................................................................................................... III ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................IV ÖZ .......................................................................................................................................V DEDICATION.....................................................................................................................VI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................VII TABLE OF CONTENTS...................................................................................................VIII LIST OF TABLES...............................................................................................................XI LIST OF FIGURES/LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS/LIST OF SCHEMES.............................XIII LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................XV CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY................................................................................ 2 2 DAM FAILURES ............................................................................................................ 3 3 CASE STUDY TOPIC: ÇINARCIK DAM........................................................................ 8 4 METHODOLOGY......................................................................................................... 14 4.1 AN OVERVIEW OF FLDWAV SOFTWARE ........................................................ 14 4.1.1 INITIAL CONDITIONS ............................................................................... 15 4.1.2 FLDWAV’s SOLUTION TECHNIQUE FOR SAINT-VENANT EQUATIONS.............................................................................................. 17 4.1.3 QUOTES AS TO FLDWAV FROM THE LITERATURE ............................ 19 4.2 MODELING DOMAIN........................................................................................... 20 4.3 INPUT PARAMETERS......................................................................................... 20 4.3.1 EXTERNAL DATA ..................................................................................... 21 4.3.2 INTERNAL DATA....................................................................................... 22 viii 4.4 MODELING SCENARIOS.................................................................................... 24 4.5 JUSTIFICATION OF PARAMETERS SET DURING MODELING....................... 28 4.5.1 JUSTIFICATION OF EXTERNAL DATA ................................................... 28 4.5.1.1 The Catastrophic Inflow Hydrograph (Storm/Runoff Flood) to the dam at upstream boundary: .......................................................... 28 4.5.1.2 Geometrical and Technical Data of Çınarcık Dam, which is located at the upstream end of the modeling reach...................... 30 4.5.1.3 Cross-sectional data for the reach (i.e. Orhaneli and Mustafakemalpa şa Creeks in the modeling domain).................... 32 4.5.1.4 Station Kms of Cross-sections...................................................... 36 4.5.1.5 Spillway Rating Curve of Çınarcık Dam........................................ 39 4.5.1.6 Discharge through the turbines..................................................... 40 4.5.1.7 Reservoir Surface Area vs Water Surface Elevation (WSEL) table for Çınarcık Dam .................................................................. 42 4.5.1.8 Topographic maps of the modeling domain of 1/100000 scale. ... 44 4.5.1.9 Monthly observed flow values for the Emet Creek, which was specified as a lateral flow to the Orhaneli Creek. ......................... 44 4.5.1.10 Manning Roughness.................................................................... 44 4.5.2 JUSTIFICATION OF INTERNAL DATA..................................................... 46 4.5.2.1 Initial Conditions............................................................................ 46 4.5.2.2 Breach Parameters ....................................................................... 46 4.5.2.2.1 Tony L. Wahl (2001) ................................................... 48 4.5.2.2.2 FLDWAV Manual (Fread et al, 1998) ......................... 51 4.5.2.2.3 Selected Breach Parameters...................................... 51 4.5.2.2.4 Breach Parameter Sensitivity...................................... 55 4.5.2.3 Failure Initiation Criteria ................................................................ 56 4.5.2.4 Finite Differentiation Technique .................................................... 56 ix 4.5.2.5 Type of Fluid ................................................................................. 58 4.5.2.6 Levee Modeling............................................................................