Forecasting Demonstration Project - Sydney 2014 Editors: Alan Seed, Aurora Bell, Peter Steinle, Susan Rennie May 2019 Bureau Research Report – 046 FDP- SYDNEY 2014 Sponsor Dr Ray Canterford, Division Head; Hazards, Warnings and Forecasts Project Staff Aurora Bell, Deryn Griffiths, Peter Steinle, Charles Sanders, Xiao, Alan Seed, Phil Purdam, Nathan Faggian, Shaun Cooper, Sandy Dance, Morwenna Griffiths, Kevin Cheong, Mark Curtis, Justin Peter, Susan Rennie, Michael Foley, Tim Hume, James Sofra, Phillip Riley, Chris Ryan, Beth Ebert, Martin Cope, Alan Wain, Andrew McCrindell, Harald Richter, Hei Meng Wong, Tennessee Leeuwenburg, David Scurrah, Tom Pagano, Jack Wells, Andrew Donaldson, James Kelly, Ian Senior, John Bally Project Managers Claire Cass, Aoife Murphy, Stephen Lellyett, Howard Jacobs Operational Forecasters Mick Logan, Kylie Egan, Peter Clegg, Dean Narramore, David Grant, Rob Taggart, Katarina Kovacevic, Claire Yeo, Phil King, James Taylor, Sarah Chadwick, Melanie Web, Mohammed Nabi, Lily Simeonova, Alicia Tuppack Enquiries should be addressed to: Dr Alan Seed Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289, Melbourne Victoria 3001, Australia Contact Email: [email protected] National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Editors: Alan Seed, Aurora Bell, Peter Steinle, Susan Rennie Title: Forecasting Demonstration Project – Sydney 2014 ISBN: 978-0-9942757-1-4 i FDP- SYDNEY 2014 Series: Bureau Research Report - BRR046 Copyright and Disclaimer © 2019 Bureau of Meteorology. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved, and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of the Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. ii FDP- SYDNEY 2014 Contents 1. Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 1 2. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3 3. Aims, objectives and activities......................................................................... 6 4. SREP systems tested during fdp ..................................................................... 7 5. Downstream prototype systems ...................................................................... 9 6. Pre-FDP Workshops ........................................................................................ 10 7. FDP Wiki- blog and Share-Point ..................................................................... 12 8. FDP Participants ............................................................................................. 12 9. FDP Visits ........................................................................................................ 12 10. FDP Presentations .......................................................................................... 13 11. FDP Mid-day Model Discussion ..................................................................... 13 12. Summary of the operational phase of the FDP ............................................. 14 13. Verification and Evaluation ............................................................................ 17 13.1 Rainfields3 .............................................................................................................. 17 13.2 Convective Weather Outlook .................................................................................. 17 13.3 Aviation Evaluation ................................................................................................. 17 13.4 Objective Verification .............................................................................................. 18 13.5 Subjective and Qualitative Evaluation .................................................................... 21 14. FDP Major Findings......................................................................................... 29 14.1 Summary................................................................................................................. 29 14.2 CSM RUC ............................................................................................................... 31 14.3 Nowcast Systems ................................................................................................... 31 iii FDP- SYDNEY 2014 14.4 Radar Network ........................................................................................................ 31 14.5 Subjective Evaluation ............................................................................................. 31 14.5.1 Strengths of the RUC .......................................................................................... 31 14.5.2 Actions to make the RUC fit for purpose ............................................................. 32 14.6 Knowledge gaps in the use of RUC in a Nowcasting Service ................................ 32 15. Appendices ...................................................................................................... 34 15.1 List of Acronyms ..................................................................................................... 34 15.2 Point Based Verification .......................................................................................... 35 15.2.1 Method ................................................................................................................ 35 15.2.2 Guidance ............................................................................................................ 35 15.2.3 Verification Regions ............................................................................................ 35 15.2.4 Verification Scores .............................................................................................. 36 15.2.5 Direct Model Output: ACCESS City and ACCESS RUC ..................................... 36 15.2.6 Post Processed Guidance .................................................................................. 40 15.3 Use of Rapid Update Cycle Predictions in the GFE ............................................... 45 15.3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 45 15.3.2 Incorporating RUC Guidance into the GFE ......................................................... 45 15.3.3 Outcomes from the Forecast Demonstration Project .......................................... 46 15.3.4 Limitations ........................................................................................................... 46 15.3.5 Successes and Transition to Operations ............................................................ 47 15.4 Performance of the Met Office Convective Diagnosis Procedure during the Sydney Forecast Demonstration Project ............................................................................. 48 15.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 48 15.4.2 CDP diagnostic in MOGREPS-G ........................................................................ 48 15.4.3 Objective lightning verification............................................................................. 49 15.4.4 Lightning case study ........................................................................................... 50 15.4.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 51 15.4.6 References ......................................................................................................... 52 15.5 NTFGS/CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES: EVALUATION ....... 53 15.5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 53 15.5.2 Reliability of Calibrated Thunder ......................................................................... 54 15.5.3 Relative operating characteristic of Calibrated Thunder ..................................... 55 15.5.4 Summary ............................................................................................................ 56 15.5.5 Refrences ........................................................................................................... 56 15.6 The Air Quality Sub-Project of the Sydney Forecast Demonstration Project ......... 58 15.6.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 58 15.6.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 59 15.6.3 Performance assessment ................................................................................... 67 15.6.4