Project Partners EAST AFRICAN CIVIL SOCIETY FOR SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND CLIMATE ACTION (EASE&CA) PLAN FOR 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIO IN KENYA BY 2050 AUGUST 2020 Prepared by: SusWATCH Kenya P.O.Box 7659- 40100. Kisumu, Kenya Tel: +254202584757 Website: suswatchkenya.org Supported by CISU Table of Contents ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 5 1.0 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 6 1.1 Objective of the Study ................................................................. 7 1.2 Methodology of the study .............................................................. 8 2.0 ENERGY STATUS IN KENYA ............................................................. 9 2.1 ESTIMATED RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL ..................................... 12 2.1.1 Biogas ................................................................................. 12 2.1.2 Biomass ............................................................................... 12 2.1.3 Wind Power .......................................................................... 13 2.1.4 Solar Energy ......................................................................... 14 2.1.5 Geothermal energy potential ..................................................... 15 2.1.6 Hydroelectricity ..................................................................... 16 2.2 FUTURE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ENERGY DEMANDS............................ 16 2.2.1 Household cooking demands ...................................................... 17 2.2.2 Household light and electricity ................................................... 23 2.2.3 Service sector, cooking demand .................................................. 24 2.2.4 Service sector, light and electricity demand ................................... 25 2.2.5 Industry, fuel demand.............................................................. 26 2.2.6 Industry, electricity demand ...................................................... 26 2.2.7 Transport demands ................................................................. 27 2.2.8 Other demands ...................................................................... 30 2.2.9 Total Final Energy demand ........................................................ 31 3.0 THE SCENARIOS AND THE RENEWABLE ENERGY USE ............................. 34 3.1 Large-Scale Power Supply Options ................................................. 35 3.2 Development of wind power ......................................................... 40 3.3 Development of solar power ........................................................ 41 3.4 Development of geothermal power ................................................ 41 4.0 ENERGY BALANCES, CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMY .............................. 43 4. 1 Electricity Sector ..................................................................... 43 4.2 Total, primary energy demand ...................................................... 44 Kenya’s 100% Renewable Energy Plan-2020 East African CSOs for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action (EASE-CA) Project Page 1 4.3. Biomass sustainability ............................................................... 45 4.4 CO2 emissions from Energy .......................................................... 46 4.5 Scenario Economies ................................................................... 47 5.0 ACTORS and RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................... 50 5.1 The Scenario actors ................................................................... 50 5.1.1 The working terrain ................................................................ 51 5.2 Policy Recommendations ............................................................. 52 REFERENCES ................................................................................. 55 Annex 1. Assumptions for the calculation of demands ............................... 57 A1.1 Demands for Cooking ................................................................ 57 A1.2. Biomass Demand Distribution on Sectors ....................................... 59 A1.3 Development of Final Energy Demand ........................................... 60 Annex 2.1 Development forecasts for Kenya .......................................... 61 Annex 3.1 Technology and energy cost forecasts ..................................... 64 Annex 4: Kenya Policy Frameworks ..................................................... 69 Annex 5 Official plans for Kenya ........................................................ 71 A5.1 Power development plans .......................................................... 71 A5.2 Actions in energy demand .......................................................... 76 ENERGY ACCESS IN KENYA ................................................................ 84 A6.1 Status summary ...................................................................... 84 A6.2 Gender and Energy……………………………………………………………………………………….….83 A6.3 Existing Plans/Strategies ........................................................... 87 A6.4 Clean Cooking ........................................................................ 90 A6.4.1 existing plans/strategies for clean cooking ................................... 90 A6.5 Existing Gaps ......................................................................... 90 A6.5.1 Universal Access - Electricity .................................................... 90 A6.5.2 Universal Access – Clean Cooking ................................................ 93 A6.6 High Impact Initiatives for Energy Access ....................................... 94 A6.6.1 Increasing Access to Modern Clean Cooking .................................. 94 A6.6.2 Increasing Access to Modern Electricity ....................................... 95 A6.7 Relevant High-Impact Opportunities ............................................. 96 Kenya’s 100% Renewable Energy Plan-2020 East African CSOs for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action (EASE-CA) Project Page 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Sustainable Environmental Development Watch (Suswatch) Kenya would like to thank its fellow partners to the Project: The East African Civil Society for Sustainable Energy & Climate Action - EASE &CA PROJECT namely: INFORSE, JEEP, Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy (NFRE), TaTEDO and Uganda Coalition for Sustainable Development (UCSD) for the valuable comments and inputs to the draft report. We are equally indebted to all the CSOs, Local and the National Government of Kenya especially the Ministry of Energy, and Ministry of Environment and Forestry for actively participating in providing us with the relevant information that informed the development of this report. Finally, we thank the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs through CISU’s Civil Society Fund that provided support that has enabled this report to be done as part of the EASE & CA project. August 2020 Authors: Justus M. Munyoki, Sustainable Environmental Development Watch Kenya P.O. Box 7659- 40100. Kisumu, Kenya Tel: +254202584757 Gunnar Boye Olesen INFORSE Secretariat www.inforse.org EASE-CA Project Partners are: UCSD, JEEP, SusWatch Kenya, TaTEDO, INFORSE & INFORSE-East Africa, and Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy. The EASE-CA Project is supported by CISU’s Civil Society Fund, Denmark. More on the EASE-CA Project: www.inforse.org/africa/EASE.htm Kenya’s 100% Renewable Energy Plan-2020 East African CSOs for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action (EASE-CA) Project Page 3 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BAU Business-As-Usual CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent INFORSE International Network For Sustainable Renewable Energy GESIP Green Economy Strategy and Implementation Plan GHG Green House Gas CCAK Clean Cook stove Alliance of Kenya GW Gigawatt MtCO2e Metric tons of Carbon dioxide equivalent ME&F Ministry of Environment and Forestry MEP Ministry of Energy and Petroleum MW Megawatt MRV Measuring, Reporting and Verification NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan NDC Nationally Determined Contribution PA Paris Agreement SDGs Sustainable Development Goals KOSAP Kenya off-Grid Solar Access Project UNDP United Nations Development Programme GPOBA Global Partnership of Output Based Aid LMCP Last Mile Connectivity Programme NES National Electrification Strategy KenGen Kenya Electricity Generation Company Kenya’s 100% Renewable Energy Plan-2020 East African CSOs for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action (EASE-CA) Project Page 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report gives an overview of the Kenyan situation regarding energy supply and demand , and presents a scenario for how Kenya can move into a 100% renewable energy economy until 2050 and at the same time move from a lower middle income country into an upper middle income country as well as reduce biomass use for energy to sustainable levels. Kenya has vast potentials for renewable energy and has been ranked fifth globally in an annual Bloomberg index measuring investments and opportunities in clean energy, two facts that together give a good basis for realizing a development as described in the 100% renewable energy scenario in this report. The report focuses on how to supply the energy for Kenya’s development with renewable energy and how to Increase energy use with modern, energy efficient technologies. In addition to the scenario for transition to 100% renewable energy, the report also includes a business as usual scenario for how