RUSSIA’S RESURGENCE: Return of a Superpower? D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 4 - S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 1 ABOUT STRATFOR Stratfor is the world’s leading online publisher of geopolitical intelligence. Our global team of intelligence professionals provides our Members with unbiased, nonpartisan insights into political, economic and military developments to reduce risks, identify opportunities and stay aware of happenings around the globe. Stratfor provides special printed reports as well as breaking intelligence 24/7/365 on our Web site www.stratfor.com. Corporate, academic and government/military Membership options are available by emailing [email protected] or calling 512-744-4300. Individual Memberships are available at www.stratfor.com/join. Stratfor provides three types of intelligence products: • Situational Awareness. News is a commodity that you can get anywhere on the Internet. Situational awareness is knowing what matters, and an intelligence professional’s responsibility -- Stratfor’s responsibility -- is to keep you apprised of what matters without wasting your time with clutter. We provide near real-time developments from revolutionary movements to military invasions. Celebrity arrests and mudslinging in Washington and Brussels don’t make the cut. • Analyses. Stratfor tells its Members what events in the world actually mean. We also tell you when events are much ado about nothing. Oftentimes the seemingly momentous is geopolitically irrelevant and vice versa. We discern what’s important objectively -- without ideology, a partisan agenda or a policy prescription. • Forecasts. Knowing what happened yesterday is helpful; knowing what’s going to happen tomorrow is critical. Stratfor’s intelligence team makes definitive calls about what’s next. These aren’t opinions about what should happen; they’re analytically rigorous predictions of what will happen. Stratfor provides published intelligence and customized intelligence services for private individuals, global corporations and divisions of the U.S. and foreign governments around the world. Stratfor intelligence professionals routinely appear at conferences and as subject-matter experts in mainstream media. Stratfor was the subject of a cover story in Barron’s titled “The Shadow CIA.” Stratfor was founded by Dr. George Friedman in 1996. Stratfor is privately owned and has its headquarters in Austin, Texas. 2 RUSSIA’S RESURGENCE: Return of a Superpower? Russia’s military intervention in Georgia in August 2008 and the brief war that followed took much of the world by surprise -- including many political leaders in Washington, who had long been intent on the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and other issues. But Russia’s unmistakable self-assertion on the world stage was anything but sudden. It was years in the making -- finding its roots in a crisis over Kosovo and further solidified by events like Ukraine’s Orange Revolution -- and telegraphed with increasing urgency in the weeks leading up to the Georgia war. Governments around the world and the mainstream media who cover them are still adjusting to the new geopolitical reality that Russia declared and asking how it will affect long-term trends and strategies. The articles contained in this research package, however, comprise an overview of Stratfor forecasts and analyses on the Russian resurgence, dating back several years before it became a fait accompli. A word on organization: All articles within this sample were published between December 2004 and September 2008. Among these, we are highlighting a few particular pieces for your attention, as “Recommended Reading.” These have been placed at the beginning of the package. All other articles are reproduced here in reverse chronological order, as an aid for your research. Individual articles may contain hyperlinks to further analyses from Stratfor’s larger body of work, which we invite you to explore. RECOMMENDED READING: The Medvedev Doctrine and American Strategy - Sept. 2, 2008 .................................7 Russia's Great-Power Strategy - Feb. 14, 2007..........................................................12 Russia's Geopolitical Imperatives - Sept. 18, 2007.....................................................16 Russia: What Now? - July 4, 2006.............................................................................20 Realism in Russia - Nov. 17, 2005............................................................................24 V-E Day: A Call to Action for the Russian Nation? - May 11, 2005.............................29 Russia: After Ukraine - Dec. 11, 2004......................................................................32 MORE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS: Czech Republic: Russia's Increasing Intelligence Activities - Sept. 25, 2008..............38 Russia: Reading the Naval Deployment to Venezuela - Sept. 22, 2008......................40 Russia, Turkey: A Reduction in Tensions - Sept. 19, 2008..........................................42 Lebanon, Russia: Reports of a Cold War Redux - Sept. 15, 2008...............................44 Georgia, Russia: South Ossetia and Abkhazia's Options - Sept. 11, 2008..................46 Germany, Finland: Choosing a Course on Russia - Sept. 10, 2008.............................48 Russia: A Naval Foray to the Caribbean - Sept. 8, 2008............................................50 Russia: Dipping into the Revenue Candy Jar - Sept. 4, 2008......................................52 Cuba, Russia: Assertive Once More in Latin America - Sept. 4, 2008..........................55 3 Russia: Western Businesses and the Return of the Cold War Mentality - Sept. 2, 2008............................................................................................................57 Tajikistan: Reconsidering Russia - Aug. 29, 2008.......................................................61 Geopolitical Diary: Turkey's Options - Aug. 29, 2008.................................................64 Geopolitical Diary: The Black Sea and Reviving the Cold War - Aug. 26, 2008...........................................................................................................66 Russia: The Georgian Pandora's Box - Aug. 25, 2008................................................68 Germany: Merkel's Choice and the Future of Europe - Aug. 20, 2008........................70 Ukraine: Yushchenko, Timoshenko and Kiev's Future - Aug. 19, 2008.......................73 Azerbaijan: The Stark New Energy Landscape - Aug. 15, 2008..................................75 Geopolitical Diary: Countermoves to a Russian Resurgence - Aug. 15, 2008..............78 U.S., Saudi Arabia: Holding the Chechen Card - Aug. 14, 2008..................................80 Geopolitical Diary: From Tbilisi to Tehran, History Resumes - Aug. 14, 2008.............83 The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power - Aug. 12, 2008..........................85 Georgia, Russia: The Twilight Hour - Aug. 12, 2008...................................................90 Ukraine: Heading Toward a Redefinition - Aug. 11, 2008...........................................91 Georgia, Russia: Checkmate? - Aug. 11, 2008 ..........................................................93 Red Alert: Hostilities Erupt in South Ossetia - Aug. 7, 2008.......................................95 Russia: The Significance of Missiles in Belarus - July 29, 2008...................................96 Russia: What About Subs Instead of Planes in Cuba? - July 24, 2008.........................99 Cuba: The Prospects for a Russian Revival - July 24, 2008.......................................102 Cuba, Russia: Rumors and Reality About Russian Bombers - July 24, 2008..............104 Geopolitical Diary: The Multiple Messages Of Military Movement In Georgia - July 16, 2008...........................................................................................................106 Georgia: The Saber-Rattling Gets Louder - July 7, 2008...........................................108 Russia: Medvedev's Whistle Stop Tour - July 3, 2008...............................................110 Georgia, Russia: Violence in Response to a Regional Redefinition - June 30, 2008...113 Russia: Problems in the Winners' Circle - June 13, 2008..........................................115 Russia: The Message of Victory Day - May 8, 2008..................................................118 EU, Russia: Obstacles to a Partnership Agreement - April 25, 2008..........................120 Georgia: Russia's Response to the United States - March 20, 2008..........................122 Georgia, Russia: South Ossetia Calls for Sovereignty - March 5, 2008.....................124 Georgia: Abkhazia Mobilizes - Feb. 29, 2008............................................................125 Russia: Putin's Directional Silence at the CIS Summit - Feb. 22, 2008.....................126 Kosovar Independence and the Russian Reaction - Feb. 20, 2008............................128 Armenia: Russia's Strengthening Hand - Feb. 19, 2008............................................132 Geopolitical Diary: Parsing Russia's Arms-Control Offer - Feb. 11, 2008...................134 Geopolitical Diary: Bolstering Russia's Image -- and Its Intel? - Feb. 1, 2008..........136 4 Russia: Kosovo and the Nuclear Option - Jan. 21, 2008...........................................138 Russia: Shifts in the Early-Warning Radar Network - Jan. 17, 2008..........................139 Russia: The Struggles Within -- Part II - Jan. 10, 2008.........................................141 Russia: The Struggles Within -- Part I - Jan. 9, 2008...............................................145