Ukraine Scenario 1) Background a. Donetsk and Luhansk are rebel-held parts of Ukraine, and have been since 2014. The regions have ethnic Russian majorities and rebelled over attempts to ban Russian as an official language and curtail trade across the Russian border. Many of the rebels advocate secession. b. Ukraine’s state power company claimed the regions were some $431 million in debt over non- payment of bills. Russia says that they will be providing power through pre-existing lines effective immediately to avoid loss of electricity to some 3 million people in the effected areas. c. The decision by the Ukrainian government to cut power to the region appears to be an attempt to put pressure on the secessionist movement, though ironically by forcing them to turn to Russia for electricity, they may further enhance the region’s link to the Russian Federation. Source: “Russia to Supply Electricity to Eastern Ukraine After Kiev Cuts Power: Ukraine Says Regions Weren't Paying Their Bills,” Jason Ditz, Posted on April 25, Anti-War.com website: https://news.antiwar.com 2) Context a. Areas in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas Region) have had power cut by pro-Ukrainian (Kiev Government) groups that control the highest capacity power generation stations in the country. These are the 4 operational nuclear power stations in western Ukraine which includes the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Station, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe generating 6,000 MW. This leaves the Russian controlled areas with a small number of lower capacity coal generation facilities to power the Donbas region with additional power provided by Russian power plants to support the area. b. The training support provided by US and NATO forces to the Ukrainian MOD over time has made them a formidable force that the Russian Army has chosen not to take on in direct confrontations. In support of the pro-Russian Ukrainian groups, the Russian Government has engaged Cossack and Chechen mercenaries to engage in Unconventional Warfare (UW) tactics that leave the host nation populace feeling harassed and menaced. The mercenaries regularly target an array of infrastructure, stores and supply chains making day-to-day existence more challenging for pro-Ukrainian populations in the AO. 3) Operational Tasks a. The operational goal in this scenario is to have CATs and the G9 staff able to support the G2 and G3, and potentially other warfighting functions, as they train the Ukrainian MOD on ways to support unconventional warfare by: 1. Understanding the mercenary threat and their TTPs (intel task) 2. Gain situational awareness of infrastructure and food/water/medical supply stores within the AO (CA task) 3. Determine where there might be knowledge gaps and perform follow-on surveys for a more complete operational picture of infrastructure and food/water/medical supply stores (CA task) 4. Determine critical infrastructure and food/medical/water stores and their vulnerabilities, along with the degree of impact each entity would have on the vulnerable populations (CA task -> Evaluation) 5. Develop relevant aspects of the civil considerations for the AO along with center of gravity analysis (CA task) 6. Perform traditional assessments on most likely and most dangerous COAs for Russian mercenary forces against critical infrastructure and stores (Intel task) b. Unclassified tasks within the overarching operational goal include: 1. Maintain the CA Area Study 2. Query CCAS for existing survey data and PAI on infrastructure and food/water/medical supply stores within the Donbas Region 3. Perform a gap analysis within the CAIM to determine a data collection plan 4. Populate CCAS with standardized Civil Surveys for immediate interoperability with UAP Oblasts And Territories Of Ukraine By Population Population Urban Rural Rank Prefecture (2015) population population 1 Donetsk Oblast 4,387,702 3,973,317 414,385 2 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 3,258,705 2,724,872 533,833 3 Kyiv (Municipality) 2,900,920 2,900,920 -N/A- 4 Kharkiv Oblast 2,720,342 2,193,027 527,315 5 Lviv Oblast 2,535,476 1,545,628 989,848 6 Odessa Oblast 2,387,282 1,592,602 794,680 7 Luhansk Oblast 2,263,676 1,963,808 299,868 Crimea (Autonomous 8 Republic) 1,963,770 1,231,648 732,122 9 Zaporizhia Oblast 1,755,663 1,355,126 400,537 10 Kyiv Oblast 1,731,673 1,077,600 654,073 11 Vinnytsia Oblast 1,604,270 813,906 790,364 12 Poltava Oblast 1,440,684 892,177 548,507 13 Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast 1,382,721 603,858 778,863 14 Khmelnytskyi Oblast 1,296,103 729,963 566,140 15 Zakarpattia Oblast 1,259,497 466,985 792,512 16 Zhytomyr Oblast 1,249,225 734,462 514,763 17 Cherkasy Oblast 1,246,166 707,539 538,627 18 Rivne Oblast 1,162,049 553,247 608,802 19 Mykolaiv Oblast 1,159,634 791,227 368,407 20 Sumy Oblast 1,115,051 764,436 350,615 Population Urban Rural Rank Prefecture (2015) population population 21 Ternopil Oblast 1,066,523 475,443 591,080 22 Kherson Oblast 1,063,803 651,241 412,562 23 Chernihiv Oblast 1,047,023 676,001 371,022 24 Volyn Oblast 1,042,855 545,568 497,287 25 Kirovohrad Oblast 974,724 612,237 362,487 26 Chernivtsi Oblast 910,001 391,491 518,510 27 Sevastopol (Municipality) 381,685 358,029 23,656 Note: Between the Donetsk and the Luhansk Oblast there were 6.5M people in the eastern most oblast in Ukraine. (World Atlas website - https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/oblasts-and-territories-of-ukraine-by- population.html) Donbass Region ethnic breakdown: According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 58% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 56.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively. [45] Modern Donbass is a predominately Russophone region. According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast. [46] The proportion of native Russian-speakers is higher than ethnic Russians because some ethnic Ukrainians and other nationalities also indicate Russian as their mother tongue. (Wikipedia – Donbass - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbass).