User Needs and High-Level Requirements for Next Generation Observing Systems for the Polar Regions D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Report February, 2016 Prepared for: European Space Agency Prepared by: Polar View Earth Observation Limited Polaris: Next Generation Observing Systems for the Polar Regions European Space Agency D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Revision 2.1 February, 2016 REVISION HISTORY VERSION NAME COMPANY DATE OF CHANGES COMMENTS Release to team for 1.0 Ed Kennedy PVEO September, 2015 input 1.1 David Arthurs PVEO November, 2015 Reorganization 1.2 Ed Kennedy PVEO November, 2015 Additional edits 2.0 Ed Kennedy PVEO January, 2016 Release to ESA 2.1 Ed Kennedy PVEO February, 2016 Minor edits DISTRIBUTION LIST ORGANIZATION NAME NUMBER OF COPIES European Space Agency Ola Gråbak 1 electronic copy European Space Agency Arnaud Lecuyot 1 electronic copy Steering Committee 1 electronic copy Polaris: Next Generation Observing Systems for the Polar Regions European Space Agency D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Revision 2.1 February, 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 2 STUDY METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 2 3 DRIVERS OF INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS .................................................................... 5 3.1 Science Drivers ................................................................................................... 5 3.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes .................................................. 6 3.1.2 Land Surface and Use Changes ....................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Ocean (Sea) State Changes.............................................................................. 7 3.1.4 Coastal Zone Changes ..................................................................................... 8 3.1.5 Ecosystem Changes ......................................................................................... 8 3.1.6 Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes ................................................... 8 3.1.7 Sea Ice Changes ............................................................................................... 9 3.1.8 River/Lake Ice Changes ................................................................................. 10 3.1.9 Snow Changes ............................................................................................... 10 3.1.10 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes ............................................................... 10 3.1.11 Permafrost Changes ...................................................................................... 11 3.2 Operational Drivers .......................................................................................... 11 3.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment ............................................................... 12 3.2.2 Engineering Design ........................................................................................ 13 3.2.3 Operations Planning ...................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Route Planning .............................................................................................. 16 3.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations ................................................................... 17 3.2.6 Risk Management .......................................................................................... 19 3.2.7 Emergency Response .................................................................................... 20 3.2.8 Search and Rescue......................................................................................... 21 3.2.9 Weather Forecasting ..................................................................................... 22 3.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation .......................................................................... 23 4 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS......................................................... 25 4.1 Scientific User Community Requirements ....................................................... 25 4.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Change Information ............................. 25 4.1.2 Land Surface and Use Change Information ................................................... 27 4.1.3 Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information ..................................... 27 4.1.4 Ecosystem Change Information .................................................................... 28 4.1.5 Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information .............................. 28 4.1.6 Sea Ice Change Information .......................................................................... 29 4.1.7 River/Lake Ice Change Information ............................................................... 29 4.1.8 Snow Change Information ............................................................................. 30 4.1.9 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Change Information ............................................ 31 4.1.10 Permafrost Change Information ................................................................... 31 4.2 Operational User Community Requirements................................................... 31 i Polaris: Next Generation Observing Systems for the Polar Regions European Space Agency D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Revision 2.1 February, 2016 4.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment Information .......................................... 31 4.2.2 Engineering Design Information ................................................................... 32 4.2.3 Operations Planning Information .................................................................. 33 4.2.4 Route Planning Information .......................................................................... 33 4.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations Information ............................................... 34 4.2.6 Risk Management Information ..................................................................... 35 4.2.7 Emergency Response Information ................................................................ 36 4.2.8 Search and Rescue Operations Information ................................................. 36 4.2.9 Weather Forecasting Information ................................................................. 37 4.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation Information ...................................................... 39 4.3 User Requirements Spanning Multiple Domains ............................................. 42 4.3.1 Sea Ice ............................................................................................................ 43 4.3.2 River and Lake Ice .......................................................................................... 43 4.3.3 Snow .............................................................................................................. 43 4.3.4 Atmosphere ................................................................................................... 43 4.3.5 Ice Sheet ........................................................................................................ 43 4.3.6 Permafrost ..................................................................................................... 43 4.3.7 Land ............................................................................................................... 43 4.3.8 Glaciers and Ice Caps ..................................................................................... 44 4.3.9 Oceans ........................................................................................................... 44 4.3.10 Icebergs ......................................................................................................... 44 5 REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 45 5.1 Current Information Requirements ................................................................. 45 5.2 Deficiencies in Available Information Products and Services .......................... 53 5.3 Future Information Requirements ................................................................... 55 5.4 Political, Economic, Social/Cultural and Technological (PEST) Trends ............ 58 5.4.1 Impacts of Political/Policy Trends ................................................................. 58 5.4.2 Impacts of Economic Trends ......................................................................... 63 5.4.3 Impacts of Technological Trends ................................................................... 65 5.4.4 Impacts of Social/Cultural Trends ................................................................. 66 APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES TO SCIENCE DRIVERS ..................................................................... 68 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes ..................................................................... 68 Land Surface and Use Changes .......................................................................................... 72 Ocean (Sea) State Changes................................................................................................. 73 Coastal Zone Changes ........................................................................................................ 75 Ecosystem Changes ...........................................................................................................