November 2007 BALTIMORE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiI I 12/12/2007 9:34:38 AM This page left blank intentionally. 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiII II 12/12/2007 9:34:49 AM Table of Contents | Transportation Outlook 2035 Table of Contents Executive Summary What is Transportation Outlook 2035? ..................................................................................... iii Introduction, Section 1 Planning Process For Transportation Outlook 2035 ..............................iv Introduction, Section 2 Will Transportation Outlook 2035 Be Successful? ...............................vii Introduction, Section 3 Addressing the Funding Shortfall ......................................................ix Chapter One Transportation Planning in the Baltimore Region ........................................................................3 Chapter 1, Section 1 The Baltimore Regional Transportation Board ......................................4 Chapter 1, Section 2 Metropolitan Planning Area .............................................................5 Chapter 1, Section 3 SAFETEA-LU ...............................................................................6 Chapter 1, Section 4 Regional Transportation Planning Process ...........................................9 Chapter 1, Section 5 Goals, Strategies, and Supporting Actions ......................................... 14 Baltimore Regional Transportation Board I 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiSec1:I Sec1:I 12/12/2007 9:34:49 AM TRANSPORTATION OUTLOOK 2035 | Table of Contents Chapter Two Snapshot of our multi-modal transportation system ..................................................................29 Chapter 2, Section 1 Highway Transportation System ...................................................... 31 Anne Arundel County ..............................................................32 Baltimore City .......................................................................32 Baltimore County ...................................................................33 Carroll County ..................................................................... 33 Harford County ..................................................................... 34 Howard County ......................................................................34 Chapter 2, Section 2 Public Transportation System ..........................................................36 Chapter 2, Section 3 Other Transportation Services .........................................................43 Chapter 2, Section 4 Bicycle and Pedestrian Transportation ..............................................45 Freight Movement ........................................................................ 46 Chapter Three Connecting Growth Management and Transportation .............................................................59 Chapter 3, Section 1 Smart Growth Priority Funding Areas Act .........................................60 Chapter 3, Section 2 Regional Coordination with Local Land Use ......................................60 Chapter 3, Section 3 Local Land Use Plans.................................................................... 62 Chapter 3, Section 3.1 Anne Arundel County .................................................................. 62 II Baltimore Regional Transportation Board 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiSec1:II Sec1:II 12/12/2007 9:34:49 AM Table of Contents | Transportation Outlook 2035 Chapter 3, Section 3.2 Baltimore County ........................................................................64 Chapter 3, Section 3.3 Carroll County ...........................................................................66 Chapter 3, Section 3.4 Harford County ..........................................................................67 Chapter 3, Section 3.5 Howard County .......................................................................... 70 Chapter 3, Section 3.6 City of Annapolis ........................................................................73 Chapter 3, Section 3.7 Baltimore City ............................................................................75 Chapter 3, Section 4 Consistency with State and Local Growth Patterns .............................77 Chapter Four Regional Trends and Challenges ...............................................................................................81 Chapter 4, Section 1 Socio-economic Trends ...................................................................82 Chapter 4, Section 1.1 The “Baby Boom” Impact ...............................................................83 Chapter 4, Section 1.2 Racial/Ethnic Trends .....................................................................84 Chapter 4, Section 1.3 Neighboring Influences ..................................................................85 Chapter 4, Section 2 Transportation Trends ...................................................................87 Baltimore Regional Transportation Board III 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiSec1:III Sec1:III 12/12/2007 9:34:50 AM TRANSPORTATION OUTLOOK 2035 | Table of Contents Chapter 4, Section 2.1 Key Indicators of Travel Demand .....................................................87 Chapter 4, Section 2.2 Other Travel Trends ......................................................................88 Chapter 4, Section 2.3 Freight Trends ............................................................................. 89 Chapter 4, Section 2.4 Safety Trends ...............................................................................92 Chapter 4, Section 2.5 Air Quality Trends .......................................................................93 Chapter 4, Section 3 Regional Challenges ......................................................................94 Chapter 4, Section 3.1 Transportation Choices ..................................................................94 Chapter 4, Section 3.2 Aging Infrastructure ..................................................................... 95 Chapter 4, Section 3.3 Socio-Economic Growth .................................................................96 Chapter 4, Section 3.4 New Military Employment .............................................................97 Chapter 4, Section 3.5 Demand For New Capacity .......................................................... 100 Chapter 4, Section 3.6 Goods Movement Explosion .......................................................... 100 Chapter 4, Section 3.7 Environmental Stewardship ..........................................................101 Chapter 4, Section 3.8 Sustainable Communities .............................................................102 IV Baltimore Regional Transportation Board 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiSec1:IV Sec1:IV 12/12/2007 9:34:51 AM Table of Contents | Transportation Outlook 2035 Chapter 4, Section 3.9 Impact of Maryland’s Structural Deficit ......................................... 106 Chapter Five Building the Regional Transportation Plan .............................................................................109 Chapter 5, Section 1 The Socio-economic Forecast .........................................................110 Chapter 5, Section 2 Financial Foundation ................................................................. 112 Chapter 5, Section 2.1 Significant demographic characteristics of the Baltimore region ........... 113 Chapter 5, Section 2.2 Financing Maryland’s transportation projects .................................. 114 Chapter 5, Section 2.3 Sources of Transportation Trust Fund monies ................................... 114 Chapter 5, Section 2.4 How monies in the trust fund are allocated ..................................... 115 Chapter 5, Section 2.5 Near term revenue assumptions for the state Transportation Trust Fund ....115 Chapter 5, Section 2.6 Long term revenue assumptions for the state Transportation Trust Fund 117 Chapter 5, Section 2.7 System preservation and operating needs ......................................... 117 Chapter 5, Section 2.8 Financial restraints guiding the 2035 Plan ..................................... 118 Chapter 5, Section 2.9 The methodology employed to develop the revenue forecast for the Baltimore region ...................................................................................... 118 Baltimore Regional Transportation Board V 2. Table of Contents - TO2035 FiSec1:V Sec1:V 12/12/2007 9:34:51 AM TRANSPORTATION OUTLOOK 2035 | Table of Contents Chapter 5, Section 2.10 Revenues anticipated for the Baltimore region ..................................120 Chapter 5, Section 3 Developing Project Costs ..............................................................122 Chapter 5, Section 4 Project Prioritization .................................................................123 Chapter 5, Section 4.1 Policy Prioritization Methodology ................................................. 124 Chapter 5, Section 4.2 Technical Prioritization Methodology .............................................125 Chapter 5, Section 4.3 Assessing a Final Score ................................................................ 125 Chapter 5, Section 5 Committed, Regionally Significant, Preferred Alternative and Illustrative Projects .................................................................................... 126 Chapter 5, Section 5.1 Committed Projects .................................................................... 126 Chapter 5, Section 5.2 Regionally Significant