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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. C O R P O R A T I O N The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force Lauren Caston, Robert S. Leonard, Christopher A. Mouton, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, S. Craig Moore, Raymond E. Conley, Glenn Buchan PROJECT AIR FORCE The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force Lauren Caston, Robert S. Leonard, Christopher A. Mouton, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, S. Craig Moore, Raymond E. Conley, Glenn Buchan Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Caston, Lauren. The future of the U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile force / Lauren Caston, Robert S. Leonard, Christopher A. Mouton, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, S. Craig Moore, Raymond E. Conley, Glenn Buchan. pages cm ISBN 978-0-8330-7623-6 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Intercontinental ballistic missiles—United States. 2. Minuteman (Missile) I. Rand Corporation. II. Title. UG1312.I2C38 2014 358.1'75482097301—dc23 2014002883 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS BOSTON, MA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface The most recent Nuclear Posture Review calls upon the Department of Defense, and therefore the U.S. Air Force, to initiate studies of the future intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force with “the objec- tive of defining a cost-effective approach that supports continued reduc- tions in U.S. nuclear weapons, while promoting stable deterrence.” In support of this work, the Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration (AF/A10) and Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) asked the RAND Corporation to examine future ICBM design, basing, and employment options for an ICBM fleet designed to meet evolving U.S. operational requirements. In this report, we present the analysis and findings of RAND’s fiscal year (FY) 2011 study intended to lay the groundwork for the upcoming Analysis of Alternatives (AoA). It is the job of this AoA to evaluate alternatives based on technical feasibility, operational effectiveness, and cost. The potential development of a new ICBM poses important questions that demand comprehensive answers requiring objective assessment and rigorous analysis. It is important to start off on the right foot when thinking about this complex and vitally important issue. Considering the longevity of Minuteman, the decisions we make today will likely shape a central component of the U.S. strategic force for decades to come. In this study, we examine ICBMs in the context of current and future national security challenges. We then identify criteria we believe to be important in carrying out an ICBM AoA. iii iv The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force The research was performed as part of a FY 2011 study, “Next- Generation ICBM: Maintaining Stability Using a New Land-Based Deterrent Force,” which was conducted within the Force Moderniza- tion and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Roles of Strategic Nuclear Forces .............................................. 1 Deterring a Nuclear Attack on the United States .............................. 3 Preventing an Arms Race ......................................................... 5 Compatibility with Future Arms Control Agreements ........................ 6 Maintaining Warfighting Capabilities .......................................... 7 Deterring Regional Nuclear Powers ............................................. 8 An ICBM for a New Generation of Challenges ...............................10 Purpose and Organization of This Report .....................................12 CHAPTER TWO A Framework for ICBM Design Decisions ..................................15 CHAPTER THREE ICBM Basing .....................................................................21 Survivability of the Current Silo-Based Force ................................ 22 Increased Accuracy ............................................................ 23 Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles ......................25 Launch Under Attack ..........................................................25 v vi The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force The Impact of Arms Control ................................................. 30 Options for Basing Alternatives .................................................35 Conclusion .........................................................................45 Chapter FOUR Effectiveness and Lethality ....................................................49 ICBM Propulsion ................................................................ 50 ICBM Boost Characteristics ....................................................55 Avoiding Overflight of Russia and China ................................... 56 Plane Changes .................................................................. 56 Southern Launches .............................................................59 Alternative Launch Locations .................................................61 Geographical Coverage of the Current Minuteman III ICBM Force ....63 Geographical Coverage with Expanded Basing .............................63 Improving Missile Accuracy .................................................. 64 Maneuvering Flight and Reentry Vehicles .....................................67 ICBM Payload .....................................................................73 Conclusion .......................................................................