Practicies Project Objective H2020-SEC-06-FCT-2016 Research and Innovation Action (RIA) Partnership against violent radicalization in cities Project Number: 740072 D3.2 – Risk mechanisms and desistance factors facing radicalization Version Def. 31 October 2018 Practicies | 740072 D3.2 – Risk mechanisms and desistance factors facing radicalization 1. Change Control 1.1. Document Properties Deliverable No. 3.2 Work Package No 3 Work Package Title Etiology of the processes of radicalisation and radicalisation levels tipping point Author/s Dounia Bouzar Contributor/s Laura Bouzar, David Cohen, Alain Ruffion Reviewer Séraphin Alava, Lluís Botifoll Official deliverable name The risk and protection factors report Date 31-10-2018 Dissemination Level Public 1.2. Revision History Version Date Comments 1st May 2017 Data transmission of the first 300 young people to Laura Bouzar for statistics 1. Based on interviews to 200 “jihadists” and 100 “Pietist Salafists” youngsters 2nd June 2017 Transmission of data from 150 other young people to the team of David Cohen for statistics 2. 150 “jihadists” 3rd December 2017 Cross Analysis of Statistics 1 and Statistics 2 4th January – June 2018 Main writing by Dounia Bouzar 5th June 2018 Writing of the DESISTANCE PRO grid with (and drafting of the annex "Particular focus on the role of the psychologist") by Laura Bouzar and Alain Ruffion 6th June 2018 Alain Ruffion 7th September 2018 General review by Séraphin Alava Final October 2018 Review ethics issues by Lluís Botifoll This document has been produced in the context of the Practicies Project. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 740072. All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubts, the European Commission has no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the authors view. Page 2 of 128 Practicies | 740072 D3.2 – Risk mechanisms and desistance factors facing radicalization 2. Contents 1. Change Control ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.1. Document Properties ......................................................................................................... 2 1.2. Revision History ................................................................................................................. 2 2. Contents ................................................................................................................................ 3 3. Executive summary ............................................................................................................... 5 4. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 5 5. Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 9 6. Semantic warnings .............................................................................................................. 11 7. Ethics issues ........................................................................................................................ 12 8. Study of the youngsters characteristics from our sample .................................................... 13 8.1. Presentation of the study sample ..................................................................................... 13 8.2. Methodological note ........................................................................................................ 19 9. The main macro and micro variables ................................................................................... 20 9.1 What has become of the young people studied, by what ideology have they went through and what has been their judicial follow-up? ............................................................................... 20 9.2. Variables related to the family context................................................................................ 25 9.3. Physical proximity with a radicalized ................................................................................... 31 9.4. The life story of the young person ....................................................................................... 33 9.5. Dynamic of variables related to the motives of commitment .............................................. 37 9.6. Dynamics implemented for each motive ............................................................................. 40 9.7. Comparison between the variables of "jihadists" and Pietist salafist ................................... 49 10. The crossed variables of becoming ...................................................................................... 51 10.1. The variables that would have a positive impact on the exit of radicalization .................... 53 10.2. Variables that would slow down the exit of radicalization ................................................. 56 10.4. The positive and negative variables of becoming .............................................................. 62 11. How to evaluate risk and protection factors for “jihadists”? ................................................ 65 11.1. The comprehension of “risk mechanisms” rather than risk factors .................................... 66 11.2. “Risk mechanisms” of radicalization illustrated by interactions that supplied those involvements ............................................................................................................................. 70 12. Seeking protection factors from “risk mechanisms” ............................................................ 76 13. The desistance Pro tool ....................................................................................................... 83 14. General remarks for primary prevention ............................................................................. 91 15. Annexes .............................................................................................................................. 99 Annex I. Special focus on the role of the psychologist by Alain Ruffion ...................................... 99 Annex II. The theme of the human being basic needs into the preventive and educational projects aimed at young people. .............................................................................................. 100 Annex III. Systematical integration of the key concept of resilience into public health systems. ................................................................................................................................................ 107 Page 3 of 128 Practicies | 740072 D3.2 – Risk mechanisms and desistance factors facing radicalization Annex IV. Integration of positive psychology as a preventive and educational resource .......... 110 Annex V. Integration of the contributions of positive psychology into the radicalization prevention ............................................................................................................................... 117 Annex VI. Global statistical tables ............................................................................................ 120 Page 4 of 128 Practicies | 740072 D3.2 – Risk mechanisms and desistance factors facing radicalization 3. Executive summary This report is composed of four parts. In the first part, we will characterize the main macro (socially-related) and micro (individual-related) variables, whose role in the radicalization process of 200 "pro-jihad" youngsters monitored by the CPDSI between April 2014 and August 2016 will be studied, stopped (by their parents or the police) before their departure to join Iraq or Syria, including some "going back individuals"1 who are not incarcerated. Another study was alongside conducted on 150 other young people monitored by the CPDSI under the same conditions and led to the same results2. Next, we will compare two groups of 100 “jihadists” and 100 “pietist” Salafist (both groups from middle class families) to characterize the values of the variables in each group, and to identify similarities and differences in attempting to identify the role of these variables in the intervention of violence. In a second part, it will be necessary to identify desistance factors by pointing to the significant variables called "of becoming"3: in other words, the social, psychological, medical, personal stories, family characteristics that can be notably found among young people who exited radicalization. Assuming that they had an impact on the future of the young individual, these variables will allow us to pounder on risk and desistance factors. In the third part, we present the construction of a tool likely to help professionals to identify and manage the degree of desistance of a radicalized followed: D3.1 – “The stages of the radical process”, which will be transformed into computer software for professionals. Finally, we share some remarks about primary prevention, along with two annexes, "Particular focus on the role of the psychologist" and "Global statistical tables" (from which some summary tables are drawn from this report). 4. Introduction Risk factors are defined as events or conditions associated with the increased