Bangladesh Asian Development Bank C1334 – January 2012 RFP HCU/CS-06 Strengthening of the Hydrocarbon Unit in the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (Phase II) Petroleum Refining & Marketing (Package # 06) Refinery Recommendation report in association with srgb Strengthening of Hydrocarbon Unit (Phase II) – Petroleum Refining & Marketing (Package # 06) Refinery recommendation report Table of Contents Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ 4 Refinery Executive summary .............................................................................7 1. Introduction...........................................................................................................13 1.1 Main Assessments of the current Refinery Operation .................................................................................13 1.2 Criteria that will guide the approach to future oil product supply ....................................................... 14 1.3 Assumptions that will underlie the recommendations................................................................................. 15 1.4 Variables that can be changed to increase / change output.................................................................. 15 1.5 Recommendations Structure....................................................................................................................................... 16 1.6 More about Key Considerations and Assumptions .......................................................................................19 1.6.1 Setting the volumetric basis for the petroleum demand.......................................................... 19 1.6.2 The improvement of the crude oil supply to Chittagong.......................................................... 21 1.7 Demand Volume Flexibility .......................................................................................................................................... 22 1.8 Conclusion on future Demand Volumes..............................................................................................................23 1.9 Alternative Energy Recommendations.................................................................................................................23 1.9.1 Electricity import...............................................................................................................................................23 1.9.2 Natural Gas Import.......................................................................................................................................... 24 1.9.3 LPG Imports.........................................................................................................................................................26 1.10 Widening the crude oil base slate with more suitable crudes.............................................................. 27 2. Analysis and detail Description of the Scenario’s....................................30 2.1 Scenario 1: Base Case.....................................................................................................................................................30 2.1.1 Current ERL Configuration and Purchase of Refined Products..........................................30 2.1.2 Supply and Demand Balance...................................................................................................................30 2.1.3 Limitations to scenario 1...............................................................................................................................32 2.1.4 Crude Oil Choice for this Scenario1......................................................................................................34 2.1.5 Product Qualities Scenario 1......................................................................................................................34 2.1.6 Efficiencies in Scenario 1 ............................................................................................................................. 35 2.1.7 Economics of Scenario 1..............................................................................................................................36 2.1.8 Required investments for Scenario 1.................................................................................................... 37 2.1.9 Scenario 1: financial result over a 10 year period..........................................................................38 2.1.10 Pro/strengths and contra/weaknesses of Scenario1...................................................................38 2.2 Scenario 2: Low investment Case aimed to return to positive refiners margins ........................40 2.2.1 Moderate Improvement of the existing ERL Refinery................................................................40 2.2.2 Refinery Configuration and Operation ................................................................................................. 41 2.2.3 Supply and Demand Balance...................................................................................................................43 2.2.4 Limitations to Scenario 2 ............................................................................................................................. 44 2.2.5 Crude oil choice for this Scenario 2 ..................................................................................................... 45 2.2.6 Product qualities Scenario 2 .....................................................................................................................46 2.2.7 Efficiencies in Scenario 2............................................................................................................................46 2.2.8 Economics of Scenario 2............................................................................................................................. 47 2.2.9 Required Investments for Scenario 2...................................................................................................50 2.2.10 Scenario 2: financial result over a 10 year period.........................................................................50 2.2.11 Pro/strengths and contra/weaknesses of Scenario 2 ................................................................. 51 SOFRECO - SRGB 1 Strengthening of Hydrocarbon Unit (Phase II) – Petroleum Refining & Marketing (Package # 06) Refinery recommendation report 2.3 Scenario 3: Modest Modernization and increase of production capacity at the current ERL refinery site............................................................................................................................................................................ 52 2.3.1 Brief Description................................................................................................................................................ 52 2.3.2 Refinery Configuration and Operation ................................................................................................ 53 2.3.3 Supply and Demand balance Scenario 3..........................................................................................59 2.3.4 Limitations to Scenario 3 .............................................................................................................................60 2.3.5 Crude Oil Choice for this Scenario 3....................................................................................................62 2.3.6 Product Qualities Scenario 3.....................................................................................................................63 2.3.7 Efficiencies in Scenario 3............................................................................................................................ 65 2.3.8 Economics of Scenario 3............................................................................................................................. 65 2.3.9 Required Investments for Scenario 3 ..................................................................................................69 2.3.10 Scenario 3: Financial Result over a 10 year period......................................................................70 2.3.11 Pro/strengths and contra/weaknesses of Scenario 3 ..................................................................71 2.4 Scenario 4: Full Modernization of ERL Refinery with addition of new units to be built in Chittagong ............................................................................................................................................................................. 72 2.4.1 Brief Description................................................................................................................................................ 72 2.4.2 Refinery Configuration and Operation ................................................................................................ 74 2.4.3 Supply and Demand Balance Scenario 4..........................................................................................88 2.4.4 Limitations to scenario 4..............................................................................................................................90 2.4.5 Crude Oil Choice for this Scenario 4.....................................................................................................91 2.4.6 Product Qualities Scenario 4.....................................................................................................................93