Economic Opportunities Analysis Section 12 of Newberg Inventory of Natural and Cultural Resources Originally Adopted by Newberg City Council January 3, 2006 (Ordinance No. 2006-2635) Revised May 20, 2013 (Ordinance No. 2013-2761) City of Newberg Economic Opportunities Analysis Table of Contents Table of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 3 I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 II. Economic Trends Analysis ..................................................................................................... 6 National, State and Regional Trends .......................................................................................... 6 Regional Economic Development Industry Clusters and Targeted Industries ......................... 12 Yamhill County Agri-Business ................................................................................................. 13 Regional Industrial Land Availability ...................................................................................... 16 Newberg Population Profile ...................................................................................................... 17 Historic and Future Growth Trends ...................................................................................... 17 Age Characteristics ............................................................................................................... 18 Educational Attainment and Income ..................................................................................... 19 Commuting Patterns.............................................................................................................. 21 Newberg Employment Characteristics ..................................................................................... 22 Historic Economy ................................................................................................................. 22 Current Economy .................................................................................................................. 23 Retail Conditions .................................................................................................................. 26 III. Assessment of Community Economic Development Potential ......................................... 27 State Employment Forecast ...................................................................................................... 27 Regional Employment Forecast ................................................................................................ 28 Newberg Employment Forecast ................................................................................................ 29 Employment by Land Use Type ........................................................................................... 30 Newberg’s Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages ........................................................ 32 Comparative Advantages ...................................................................................................... 32 Comparative Disadvantages .................................................................................................. 34 Special Opportunities ................................................................................................................ 35 Dental Equipment Cluster ..................................................................................................... 35 Alternative Energies.............................................................................................................. 36 South Industrial Area ............................................................................................................ 36 Aviation Related Industry ..................................................................................................... 37 Nursery and other Agricultural Products .............................................................................. 37 Wine/Tourism Industry ......................................................................................................... 38 Retail ..................................................................................................................................... 39 IV. Newberg’s Economic Development Strategy .................................................................... 40 Capitalizing on Comparative Advantages & Addressing Comparative Disadvantages ........... 40 Regional Focus.......................................................................................................................... 41 Locally Targeted Economic Development Industry Clusters (Targeted Industries) ................ 43 Comprehensive Plan Policies and Recommended Supportive Economic Development Actions ................................................................................................................................................... 44 V. Industrial and Commercial Land Needs and Supply ............................................................ 46 Section 12: Economic Opportunities Analysis | City of Newberg 1 Industrial Land Need................................................................................................................. 46 Industrial Employment Forecast ........................................................................................... 46 Industrial Site Suitability Requirements ................................................................................... 51 State Rules Governing Site Suitability Characteristics ......................................................... 51 Background on Newberg’s Industrial Site Characteristics ................................................... 52 Industrial Site Size ................................................................................................................ 54 Industrial District Size and Industrial/Commercial Proximity ............................................. 56 Topography ........................................................................................................................... 58 Proximity to UGB ................................................................................................................. 61 Proximity to Transportation and Services............................................................................. 61 Compatibility with Residential Uses .................................................................................... 63 Importance of Site Characteristics to Different Types of Targeted Industrial Uses ............. 65 Industrial Land and Sites ............................................................................................................ 7 2032 Industrial Site Need vs. Supply .................................................................................... 10 Commercial Land Need ............................................................................................................ 11 Commercial Employment Forecast....................................................................................... 11 Commercial Land and Site Sizes Needed ............................................................................. 11 Commercial Site Suitability Requirements ............................................................................... 14 Commercial Site Size ............................................................................................................ 15 Topography ........................................................................................................................... 15 Proximity to Transportation and Services............................................................................. 16 Compatibility with Adjacent Uses ........................................................................................ 17 Commercial Land and Sites ...................................................................................................... 17 2032 Commercial Site Need and Supply .............................................................................. 18 VI. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 21 Table of Tables Table 12- 1: Yamhill County Value of Agricultural Production, 2007 ........................................ 14 Table 12- 2: Newberg Census Populations .................................................................................. 17 Table 12- 3: Newberg Urban Area Population Forecast .............................................................. 18 Table 12- 4: Comparative Age Characteristics ............................................................................ 18 Table 12- 5: Comparative Educational Attainment ..................................................................... 19 Table 12- 6: Comparative Household Income ............................................................................. 20 Table 12- 7: Comparative Median Household Income ................................................................ 20 Table 12- 8: Newberg Employment 1978-2010 .......................................................................... 23 Table 12- 9: Estimated Newberg Employment