NATIONAL COOPERATIVE TRANSIT RESEARCH rEt'.-E\19™- c/IJ/ 2 0 /"Qc ~ ~~ u ~ J'..oOt?r, · L.1 ~~1 - ~~ !!_DN RfSEAHC~ ~// Report 1 5 ~--~ Transit Capital Investment To Reduce Operating Deficits - Alternative Bus Replacement Strategies R. W. DRAKE Fleet Maintenance Consultants, Inc. Houston, Texas D. W. CARTER Price Waterhouse and Transportation Finance Group Oakland, California J. J. GAUDETTE Transportation Finance Group Denver, Colorado AREAS OF INTEREST Finance Vehicle Characteristics (Public Transit) RESEAR CH SPONSORED BY THE URBAN MASS TRANSPORTATION ADMINISTRATION OF THE US DEPARTMENT OF TRANSP ORTA T ION TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL WASHINGTON , D.C . JANUARY 1988 NATIONAL COOPERATIVE TRANSIT RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Administrators, engineers, and many others in the transit in­ NCTRP REPORT 15 dustry are faced with a multitude of complex problems that range between local, regional, and national in their prevalence. Project 31-2 FY '84 How they might be solved is open to a variety of approaches; ISSN 0732-4839 however, it is an established fact that a highly effective approach ISBN 0-309-04571-1 to problems of widespread commonality is one is which oper­ Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 88-50067 ating agencies join cooperatively to support, both in financial Price: $10.40 and other participatory respects, systematic research that is well designed, practically oriented, and carried out by highly com­ petent researchers. As problems grow rapidly in number and NOTICE escalate in complexity, the value of an orderly, high-quality The project that is the subject of this report was 11 part of the National Cooperative cooperative endeavor likewise escalates. Transit Research &. Development Program conducted by the Transp0rtation Re· search Bour<! with the approval or the Govern ing Board of the National Research Recognizing this in light of the many needs of the transit Councn. Such approvn.I reflects the Governing Board's judgment that the program industry at large, the Urban Mass Transportation Administra­ concerned is of national importance and appropriate wi ih respect to both the tion, U.S. Department of Transportation, got under way in 1980 purposes and resources of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and the National Cooperative Transit Research & Development Pro­ to review this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with gram (NCTRP). This is an objective national program that due consideration for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The provides a mechanism by which UMTA's principal client groups opinions and conclusion expressed or implied are those of the research agency lhnt performed the research, and, whi le they have been accepted as nppropriBte across the nation can join cooperatively in an attempt to solve by the technical committee, they arc not necessarily those of the Transportation near-term public transportation problems through applied re­ Research Board, the National Research Council, or the Urban Mass Tran por­ search, development, test, and evaluation. The client groups tation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. Each ri:port is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical commiuee thereby have a channel through which they can directly influ­ according to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research ence a portion ofUMTA's annual activities in transit technology Bonrd Execulivc Committee and the Governing Board or the Nationa.I Research Cuuncil. development and deployment. Although present funding of the The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of NCTRP is entirely from UMTA's Section 6 funds, the planning Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with leading to inception of the Program envisioned that UMTA's the Academy's purposes or furthering knowledge and of advising the P~deral Government. Tb.e Council has become the principal operating agency of both the client groups would join ultimately in providing additional sup­ National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the port, thereby enabling the Program to address a large number conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and of problems each year. engineering communities. It is dminisr.red jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of The NCTRP operates by means of agreements between Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of UMTA as the sponsor and (1) the National Research Council the National Academy of Sciences. The Transportation Research Board evolved in 1974 from the Highway Re­ as the Primary Technical Contractor (PTC) responsible for ad­ search Board which was established in 1920. The TRB incorporates all former ministrative and technical services, (2) the American Public HRB activities and also performs additional functions under a broader scope Transit Association, responsible for operation of a Technical involving all modes of transportation and the interactions of transportation with society. Steering Group (TSG) comprised of representatives of transit operators, local government officials, State DOT officials, and officials from UMTA's Office of Technical Assistance. Special Notice Research Programs for the NCTRP are developed annually The Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, by the Technical Steering Group, which identifies key problems, and the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (sponsor of the ranks them in order of priority, and establishes programs of National Cooperative Transit Research & Development Program) do projects for UMTA approval. Once approved, they are referred not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names to the National Research Council for acceptance and admin­ appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity istration through the Transportation Research Board. and completeness of project reporting. Research projects addressing the problems referred from UMT A are defined by panels of experts established by the Board Published reports of the to provide technical guidance and counsel in the problem areas. The projects are advertised widely for proposals, and qualified NATIONAL COOPERATIVE TRANSIT agencies are selected on the basis of research plans offering the RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM greatest probabilities of success. The research is carried out by these agencies under contract to the National Reserch Council, are available from: and administration and surveillance of the contract work are the responsibilities of the National Research Council and Board. Transportation Research Board The needs for transit research are many, and the National National Research Council Cooperative Transit Research & Development Program is a 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. mechanism for deriving timely solutions for transportation prob­ Washington, D.C. 20418 lems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. In doing so, the Program operates complementary to, rather than as a substitute for or duplicate of, other transit research programs. Printed in the United States of America FOREWORD Public transit officials concerned with cost control will be interested in this report on bus replacement and rehabilitation strategies. The methodology presented in the By Staff report provides decision-makers with useful information on trade-offs between the Transportation expected capital and operating cost for (1) continued operation of an existing vehicle, Research Board (2) replacement with a new vehicle, and (3) rehabilitation of the existing vehicle. The methodology should also prove helpful in evaluating the justification for procurement of a higher initial cost vehicle by taking into consideration lower operational and maintenance costs over time, thus providing a "best buy" over a lower initial cost vehicle. Given the considerable cost of operating, maintaining, and replacing buses today, methods which provide guidance on the replacement or rehabilitation of buses have the potential for significant cost savings. In the past these methods have been hand­ icapped because of the difficulty of estimating maintenance costs over time, both for buses that have been rehabilitated and those that have not. This study (NCTRP Project 31-2, "Transit Capital Investment to Reduce Operating Deficits: Alternative Bus Replacement Strategies") attempted to overcome that deficiency by determining a statistically significant correlation between operating and maintenance costs and vehicle age. However, due to data limitations, no such correlation was found. Despite this constraint, the approach presented allows an operator to examine the cost im­ plications of varying vehicle retirement or rehabilitation age from that normally used. This report presents the results of a survey of a number of transit agencies concerning their current replacement and rehabilitation practices. In addition, oper­ ating and maintenance cost data by individual subsystem were collected and analyzed from 11 transit agencies. The information is presented on the basis of cost per mile versus age and cumulative mileage. Data are also provided on the cost of rebuilding four major components: engine, transmission, body, and frame. A method was developed to determine useful bus life which accounts