WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT FOR UTILITY-SCALE CLEAN ENERGY PROJECT: THE CASE OF SAO VICENTE ISLAND ABDULMUTALIB YUSSUFF SUPERVISED BY: PROF. ABIOLA JOHN KEHINDE A Thesis presented to the University of Lagos in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Chemical Engineering Department of Chemical Engineering University of Lagos, Akoka Lagos, Nigeria 2015 DECLARATION The work described herein was undertaken at the Chemical Engineering Department of the University of Lagos between July 2014 and December 2014. Part of the project was carried out during a training workshop jointly organized by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE), and Columbia University in the City of New York. The training workshop on energy infrastructure planning was organized for the Fellows of the ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency from 4th-8th of August, 2014 in Sao Vicente, Cape Verde. ...................................... Abdulmutalib Yussuff Wednessday12th August 2015 i CERTIFICATION Abdulmutalib Yussuff 129041109 …………………... ………..… Candidate Matric. No. Signature Date Certified by: Professor Abiola John Kehinde …………………… ………….. Supervisor Signature Date Certified by: …………………… ………….. Professor A O Denloye Signature Date Head of Department Chemical Engineering ii DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis TO All members of my family iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Firstly, I would like to express my thanks to my supervisor Professor KEHINDE Abiola John. I am extremely grateful for his support, invaluable guidance and for his continuing help. I would also like to thank my advisor Dr. Mohammed Awwal Usman for his valuable suggestions. iv ABSTRACT Accurate wind resource assessment is of high importance in wind power project development. This thesis estimates the annual energy yield and emission reduction potential for a grid connected 5.95 MW wind power plant at the Island of Sao Vicente in Cape Verde. Wind speed data from Sao Vicente wind farm is processed and analyzed in R (Statistical software). The maximum annual wind energy potential at the site is 53,470.2 MWh, but analysis shows that the turbine can harness an estimated 14,185 MWh per annum. The estimated annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions displacement is 10,071 tonnes of CO2. In monetary terms, the GHG displacement is worth € 60,428 per annum based on the European trading system of € 6 per tonne CO2. The estimated investment cost of the 5.95MW wind power project is € 15.5 million against the estimated investment cost of similar project in Germany of € 10 million based on the investment benchmark of $ 1,800/kW published by the Fraunhofer Institute and also in comparison with a typical Vestas wind turbine cost of $1,800/kW. The difference in investment cost between Cape Verde and Germany is attributed to additional cost of breaking the complex terrain barriers to the good wind site in Sao Vicente; importation of turbine and equipment parts; foreign consultancy services and manpower; pre-feasibility and feasibility studies to identify suitable sites. With the prevailing electricity tariff of € 0.28 per kWh in Cape Verde, it was estimated that the wind power project will break-even within 4 years with or without carbon credit. This indicates that the project is financially viable. In the context of Nigeria’s coastal area of Lagos, wind resource potential lies within Class 1 (<5 m/s) at a hub height of 74 metres. This indicates that wind power project could be realized using a turbine with a cut-in speed below 3 m/s in best case scenario. The implication is that more numbers of small wind turbines will be needed to reach utility-scale. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION.......................................................................................................................i CERTIFICATION...................................................................................................................ii DEDICATION.........................................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT.........................................................................................................iv ABSTRACT..............................................................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS........................................................................................................vi CHAPTER ONE.......................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION AND PROJECT RATIONALE.............................................................1 1.1 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................1 1.2 PROBLEM BACKGROUND AND IDENTIFICATION.............................................8 1.3 PROJECT OBJECTIVE.................................................................................................9 1.3.1 General Objective...............................................................................................9 1.3.2 Specific Objective ..............................................................................................9 1.4 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT AND PROJECT ENVIRONMENT...................9 1.5 PROFILE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT IN CAPE VERDE……..13 1.6 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................13 CHAPTER TWO....................................................................................................................14 LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL BACKGROUND...............................14 2.1 WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT...........................................................................14 2.2 CHARACTERISATION OF OBSERVED WIND RESOURCE................................17 2.2.1 DATA RECOVERY........................................................................................17 2.2.2 MEAN AND ANNUALIZED MEAN WIND SPEED....................................18 2.2.3 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION AND WEIBULL PARAMETERS.............19 2.2.4 WIND POWER DENSITY..............................................................................27 2.2.5 WIND SHEAR.................................................................................................28 2.2.6 ROUGHNESS CLASSES AND ROUGHNESS LENGTHS…………..……30 2.2.7 EXPONENT TURBULENCE INTENSITY...................................................32 2.2.8 MEAN AIR DENSITY....................................................................................32 2.2.9 WIND ROSE....................................................................................................33 2.3 SELECTION OF SITES FOR WIND FARM PROJECT...........................................34 2.4 IMPORTANT STAGES IN WIND POWER PROJECT DEVELOPMENT..............36 vi 2.4.1 WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT...............................................................37 2.4.2 PERMITTING……………..............................................................................37 2.4.3 FINANCING/DUE DILIGENCE.....................................................................37 2.4.4 CONSTRUCTION...........................................................................................38 2.4.5 OPERATION AND DECOMMISIONING.....................................................39 2.5 CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM.................................................................39 2.6 EMISSION REDUCTION ANALYSIS......................................................................43 2.7 SATELLITE WIND MAP AND WIND RESOURCE POTENTIAL……………….44 2.8 UTILITTY-SCALE WIND ENERGY PROJECT IN NIGERIA……….……..……..44 CHAPTER THREE ..............................................................................................................46 DATA VALIDATION AND ANALYSIS……………….....................................................46 3.1 DATA RECOVERY ...................................................................................................46 3.2 WIND POWER CURVE.............................................................................................47 3.2.1 EMPIRICAL WIND FARM POWER CUREVE……………………………47 3.2.2 WIND FARM POWER CURVE WITH ENERGY BENCHMARKS…...….47 3.2.3 WIND SPEED DATA CORRECTION….…………………………………..48 3.3 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION..............................49 3.4 IMPACTS OF DATA CORRECTION ON TURBINE PERFORMANCE…...…….50 3.5 MEAN WIND SPEED ESTIMATION FOR THE SITE…………………………….51 3.6 ENERGY YIELD ESTIMATION FOR THE SITE…………………………...…….52 3.7 POTENTIALS FOR UTILITY-SCALE WIND ENERGY IN NIGERIA……..……52 3.8 CERTIFIED EMISSION REDUCTION (CER) ANALYSIS.....................................53 CHAPTER FOUR..................................................................................................................54 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION.............................................................................................54 CHAPTER FIVE ...................................................................................................................56 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION....................................................................56 5.1 CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………56 5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS………………………………………………….…………57 APPENDICES........................................................................................................................59 Appendix