IAEA-TECDOC-504 EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY DATA SOURCES REPOR TECHNICAA F TO L COMMITTEE MEETING ORGANIZED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY AND HELD IN VIENNA, 1-5 FEBRUARY 1988 A TECHNICAL DOCUMENT ISSUED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, VIENNA, 1989 IAEe Th A doe t normallsno y maintain stock f reportso thin si s series. However, microfiche copie f thesso e reportobtainee b n sca d from INIS Clearinghouse International Atomic Energy Agency Wagramerstrasse5 P.O. Box 100 A-1400 Vienna, Austria Orders should be accompanied by prepayment of Austrian Schillings 100, in the form of a cheque or in the form of IAEA microfiche service coupons orderee b whic y hdma separately fro INIe mth S Clearinghouse. EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY DATA SOURCES IAEA, VIENNA, 1989 IAEA-TECDOC-504 ISSN 1011-4289 Printed by the IAEA in Austria April 1989 PLEAS AWARE EB E THAT MISSINE TH AL F LO G PAGE THIN SI S DOCUMENT WERE ORIGINALLY BLANK CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................ 9 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 11 . 2 ROL RELIABILITF EO Y DATA ...................................................................3 1 . 2.1. Probabilistic safety assessment .................................................................3 1 . 2.2. Use f reliabilito s desigP y datNP nn i a ........................................................4 1 . f reliabilito e 2.3Us . operatioP y datNP n ai n .....................................................6 1 . 2.3.1. Operational management ...............................................................6 1 . 2.3.1.1. Maintenance schedules ......................................................6 1 . 2.3.1.2. Optimisation of test intervals ............................................... 17 2.3.1.3. Outage times ..................................................................8 1 . 2.3.1.4. Spare parts ....................................................................8 1 . 2.3.1.5. Availability of plant .......................................................... 19 2.3.2. Safety management .....................................................................9 1 . 2.3.2.1. Backfitting and/or design improvements ................................9 1 . 2.3.2.2. Accident management ........................................................ 19 2.4. Reliability data requirements ...................................................................0 2 . 2.4.1. Initiating events ........................................................................... 20 2.4.2. Failure data ................................................................................ 21 2.4.3. Testing ..................................................................................... 21 2.4.4. Repair and recovery data ............................................................... 23 2.4.4.1. Repair times ..................................................................3 2 . 2.5. Issue datn o s a collection, evaluatio utilizatiod nan n .......................................4 2 . 2.5.1. Data collection ...........................................................................4 2 . 2.5.1.1. Availability/incompletenes f dato s a ......................................4 2 . 2.5.1.2. Inconsistency of data ......................................................... 25 2.5.1.3. Statistic uncertaintied an s s .................................................5 2 . 2.5.1.4. Random/dependent failures ................................................. 26 2.5.1.5. Engineering judgement ...................................................... 26 2.5.2. Data evaluation ..........................................................................7 2 . 2.5.2.1. Sources of reliability data ................................................... 27 2.5.2.2. Factors affecting failure data ............................................... 29 2.5.2.3. Categorization of initiating events ......................................... 29 2.5.3. Use of data ................................................................................ 30 2.5.3.1. Generic vs. specific .......................................................... 30 2.5.3.2. Limitatio f dato n a ...........................................................1 3 . 2.5.3.3. Validation .....................................................................1 3 . 2.5.3.4. Historica r improveo l d data ...............................................2 3 . 3. DATA BASE FORMULATION ...................................................................... 33 3.1. Statu characteristicd an s f reliabilito s y data base Memben si r States ...................3 3 . 3.2. Component failure description ..................................................................6 5 . 3.3. Modes of data collection ......................................................................... 60 3.4. Structure and organization for data collection ................................................ 69 3.5. Quality assurance (QA) in data collection, validation and screening .................... 79 3.6. Characteristic f computeo s r system r datfo sa transmissio storagd nan e ................1 8 . 3.7. Potential application date th a f baseo s s .......................................................2 9 . Componene 3.8Th . t Event Data Bank (CEDE Europeae th f o ) n Reliability Data System (ERDS) .............................................................................4 9 . 3.9. Current problem areas ...........................................................................5 9 . 4 DATA MANAGEMEN ANALYSID TAN S ......................................................7 9 . 4.1. Computerized data base management systems ..............................................7 9 . 4.2. Data base security ................................................................................. 98 4.3. Statistical treatment to generate usable parameters .......................................... 99 4.3.1. Statistical treatmen f dato t a ...........................................................9 9 . 4.3.2. Assessment of running times and number of demands ........................... 99 4.3.3. Bayesian data uptading .................................................................. 100 4.3.4. Combining data from various sources ..............................................1 10 . 4.4. Expert opinion .....................................................................................3 10 . 4.4.1. Artificial intelligence applie dato dt a bases enquir treatmend yan f o t reliability parameters derived from expert judgement by making use of fuzzy setpossibilitd an s y theory .....................................................3 10 . 4.4.2. Aggregatio f experno t opinion ........................................................4 10 . 4.5. Reliability parameter data bases ................................................................ 105 4.5.1. Informatio reliabilitn o n y data bases ................................................5 10 . 4.5.2. CEDE - Reliability Data Book (RDB) ............................................. 112 4.5.3. IAEA generic component reliability data base ..................................... 113 4.6. Special studie evaluato st e dat r initiatinafo g events (IE) .................................4 11 . 4.7. Special studie evaluato t s e reliability datreliabilitd aan y indicators ....................5 11 . 4.7.1. Generatio f safetno y system reliability indicators .................................5 11 . 4.8. Data base network for reliability improvement .............................................. 117 4.9. Current problem areas ............................................................................ 121 4.9.1. Information barrier — The need for a communications network system ...... 121 4.9.2. Problem areas connecte f dgenerio wite hus c data bases .......................2 12 . 4.9.3. Problem areas connected with combinatio f datno a sources ....................3 12 . 5. FUTURE TRENDS ...................................................................................... 125 REFERENCES .................................................................................................7 12 . APPENDIX: PAPERS PRESENTE MEETINE TH T DA G Reliability data and safety evaluation of nuclear power plants — Status and trends in the German Democratic Republic .............................................. 131 /. Rumpf, J. Sydow Present status of the nuclear power reliability data bank in Japan .................................... 139 OhtaK. Development of FREEDOM/CREDO database for LMFBR PSA .................................... 155 Nakai,R. Setoguchi,K. Yasuda,H. H.E. Knee Reliability data source Pake th sn i sNuclea r Power Plant .............................................5 16 . Hollô,E. TôthJ. FOREWORD Reliability dctta play n importana s t rol Nuclean i e r Power Plant safety d avaan i lability. n planI t design reliability data art- use o evaluatt d e safetth e y implications of various redundancy strategies. En ploint operation reliability dottd arc needed for the evaludtion of maintenance schedules, allowable outage o optimi/t time d an s e test intervals. Other use f realiabilito s y data include: root caus d failuran e e trend «•analysis, common cause failure analysis, plant performance indicators ctnd optimisatio f sparo n e parts inventory f particulaO . f o r e importancus e th s i e reliability data in probabilistic safety