Autonomous Vehicle Technology A Guide for Policymakers James M. Anderson, Nidhi Kalra, Karlyn D. Stanley, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras, Oluwatobi A. Oluwatola C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr443-2 This revised edition incorporates minor editorial changes. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8398-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Advertisement from 1957 for “America’s Independent Electric Light and Power Companies” (art by H. Miller). Text with original: “ELECTRICITY MAY BE THE DRIVER. One day your car may speed along an electric super-highway, its speed and steering automatically controlled by electronic devices embedded in the road. Highways will be made safe—by electricity! 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RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report builds on RAND’s long tradition of research on advanced technologies. From our research on world-circling spaceships in 1946 to developing the conceptual foundations of the Internet in the early 1960s, RAND has long provided policymakers with guidance about tomorrow’s world. RAND’s recent research on the policy effects of autonomous vehicles includes Liability and Regulation of Autonomous Vehicle Technologies, by Nidhi Kalra, James M. Anderson, and Martin Wachs (2009), and The U.S. Experience with No-Fault Automobile Insurance: A Retrospective, by James M. Anderson, Paul Heaton, and Stephen J. Carroll (2010). Both publications are available on RAND’s website. This report results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. The RAND Transportation, Space, and Technology Program The research reported here was conducted in the RAND Transporta- tion, Space, and Technology Program, which addresses topics relating to transportation systems, space exploration, information and telecom- munication technologies, nano- and biotechnologies, and other aspects of science and technology policy. Program research is supported by government agencies, foundations, and the private sector. iii iv Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers This program is part of RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Envi- ronment, a division of the RAND Corporation dedicated to improving policy and decisionmaking in a wide range of policy domains, includ- ing civil and criminal justice, infrastructure protection and homeland security, transportation and energy policy, and environmental and nat- ural resource policy. Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, James Anderson, [email protected]. For more information about the Transportation, Space, and Technology Pro- gram, see http://www.rand.org/transportation or contact the director at [email protected]. This version of the report, RR-443-2, replaces an earlier version that contained an incomplete account of General Motor’s policy on its use of OnStar customer data in footnote 8 on page 69, none of which affected the findings of the report. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 What Are Autonomous and Automated Vehicles? ............................ 2 Why Is Autonomous Vehicle Technology Important Now? .................. 4 What Decisions Do Policymakers Face? ........................................ 6 CHAPTER TWO The Promise and Perils of Autonomous Vehicle Technology ............ 9 A Summary of the Social Costs of Driving ..................................... 9 Effects of Autonomous Vehicle Technology on Safety and Crashes ........12 Effect of Autonomous Vehicle Technologies on Mobility for Those Unable to Drive ..............................................................16 Congestion .........................................................................17 Potential Effects on Traffic Congestion ......................................17 Potential Effects on the Costs of Traffic Congestion ...................... 24 Land Use ...........................................................................25 Energy and Emissions Implications of Autonomous Vehicles .............. 28 Fuel Economy .................................................................. 28 Autonomous Vehicles Might Enable Alternative Fuels .....................33 How Will Travel Demand Affect Energy and Emissions? ................ 36 v vi Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers Costs and Disadvantages ........................................................ 38 Conclusion ........................................................................ 40 CHAPTER THREE Current State Law and Legislative Activity .................................41 Nevada’s Certificate of Compliance............................................ 42 Comparison of State Legislation ............................................... 43 Nevada (NRS 482.A and NAC 482.A) ..................................... 44 Florida (Fla. Stat. Title XXIII, Ch. 319, S 145) .............................45 California (Cal. Veh. Code, Division 16.6)................................. 46 Washington, D.C. (L19-0278) ................................................47 Ongoing Legislation in Other States .......................................... 48 Arizona (HB 2167) ............................................................ 48 Colorado (SB 13-016) ......................................................... 48 Hawaii (HB 1461) ..............................................................49 Massachusetts (HB 3369) ......................................................49 Michigan (SB 0169) ........................................................... 50 New Hampshire (HB 444) ................................................... 50 New Jersey (A2757) ........................................................... 50 New York (S4912) .............................................................. 50 Oklahoma (HB 3007) ..........................................................51 Oregon (HB 2428) .............................................................51 South Carolina (HB 4015) .....................................................51 Texas (HB 2932) ................................................................52 Washington (HB 1649) ........................................................52 Wisconsin (SB 80) ..............................................................52 Stakeholder Interviews............................................................53 Conclusion .........................................................................53 CHAPTER FOUR Brief History and Current State of Autonomous Vehicles ...............55 A Brief History ...................................................................55 Phase 1: Foundational Research .............................................. 56 Phase 2: Grand Challenges ................................................... 56 Phase 3: Commercial Development ..........................................57 State of Autonomous Vehicle Technology ......................................58 Contents vii Making Sense of the World ....................................................58 Integrity, Security, and Verification ...........................................70 Policy Implications ................................................................72 Conclusion .........................................................................74 CHAPTER FIVE The Role of Telematics and Communications .............................75 A Review of the Communications Technologies Used by Autonomous Vehicles ....................................................... 77 Commercial Wireless Services ................................................ 77 Dedicated Short-Range Communications ...................................79 Bluetooth .......................................................................