Research Projects June, 29 – July, 5, 2013 National Research University Higher School of Economics Moscow 1 2 Contents Albiol, Judit: Business exits entail greater future levels of entrepreneurship? An empirical analysis at country level ............................................................................................. 5 Aymaliev, Ivan: Corruption, incompetence or unsuccessful reforms? Determinants of economic inefficiency in public procurement: evidence from Russia’s regions................................................................................................................................... 9 Bánnikova, Marina M.: Bribing parties in alternative parliament structures ........ 16 Baranov, Alexey; Nazrullaeva, Eugenia; Yakovlev, Andrei : Criminal Persecution of Business in Russia’s Regions: Private Interests vs. “Stick” System ............................ 22 Broms, Rasmus: Colonial Tax Effort and its Institutional Dividends ......................... 26 Bukowski, Paweł: Long-run persistence of the Empires. The impact of the Partition of Poland on education .............................................................................................. 31 Efobi, Uchenna; Beecroft, Ibukun; Oluwatobi, Stephen; Osabuohien, S. Evans: Dynamic Linkage between Politician Attributes and Debt Sustainability in Africa ................................................................................................................................................................. 41 Gavrilov, Alexander: Influence of ratio of system and interpersonal trust on character of state political system ........................................................................................... 49 Garifullina, Guzel; Buckley, Noah; Reuter, John; Shubenkova, Alexandra: Local Elite Quality: Does Selection Mechanism Matter? ....................................................................... 53 Juraqulova, Zarrina; Byington, Tori C.; Kmec, Julie A.: The Impacts of Marriage and Institutional Factors on Academics’ Perceptions of Career Success: An Ordered Logistic Regression Approach ................................................................................................... 58 Kirysheva, Irina: Optimal prize allocation in contests with sabotage ....................... 66 Kislitsyn, Dmirty: Firm’s political influence and political status of its board of directors members: case of Kemerovo region ................................................................ 69 Kochergina, Ekaterina: Why do we act heuristically? ...................................................... 72 Lazarov, Darko: The quality of Institutions and economic growth (panel regression analysis for sample of CEE countries in time series 1993-2007 and 2008-2011) ........................................................................................................................................ 76 Li, Yuanjing: Vertical Structure and Forward Contract in Electricity Market ....... 81 Matvyeyev, Yevheniy: Self-organization of economic actors in case of state institutions dysfunction. .............................................................................................................. 86 Morozov, Ilya: Oligopolistic Markets and Price Obfuscation ......................................... 89 Nelidov, Vadim: Game Theoretic Approach to Game Addiction ................................ 92 3 Osabuohien, Evans S.: Foreign Land Acquisitions in Nigeria: Forces from Above and Voices from Below ................................................................................................................. 96 Ostrovnaya, Maria; Podkolzina, Elena: Competition between electronic intermediaries in public procurement ................................................................................ 102 Pérez, Jessica, Diaz-Serrano, Luis: Do more educated leaders raise citizens’ education? ....................................................................................................................................... 107 Puzon, Klarizze Anne; Willinger, Marc: Institutions and resource windfalls: an experimental contest game ...................................................................................................... 114 Rassadovskaya, Anastasia; Aistov, Andrey: Comparative analysis of corruption perception and trust in Russia, other post-soviet countries and European Union .............................................................................................................................................................. 117 Saputra, Putu Mahardika Adi: The Decision to Export: Firm-Level Evidence from Indonesian Textile and Apparel Industry .......................................................................... 120 Syunyaev, Georgiy: Turnover of Ruling Elites and Property Rights Protection: Evidence from Russian Regions ............................................................................................. 124 Tran, Phuong Tra; Buso, Marco; Marty, Frédéric: Governments' use of Public Private Partnerships: Looking for Debt Hiding or Efficiency? .................................. 130 Tyurina, Elena: How does online marketplace environment impact on consumer behavior rationality? .................................................................................................................. 134 4 Albiol, Judit1: Business exits entail greater future levels of entrepreneurship? An empirical analysis at country level Abstract: Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data for 41 countries this study investigates the impact of business exit on entrepreneurial activity at the country level. The paper distinguishes between two types of entrepreneurial activity according with the motive to start a new business: entrepreneurs driven by opportunity and necessity motives. The findings indicate that exits have a positive impact on future levels of entrepreneurial activity in a country. For each exit in a given year, a larger proportion of entrepreneurial activity the following year. Moreover, this effect turns out to be higher for opportunity entrepreneurs. The findings indicate that both types of entrepreneurial activity rates are influenced by the same factors and in the same direction. However, for some factors we find a differential impact on the entrepreneurship. The results show some important implications given that business exit may be overcome when there is a necessity motivation. This has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. Introduction Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data for 41 countries this study investigates the impact of business exit on entrepreneurial activity at the country level. The paper distinguishes between two types of entrepreneurial activity according with the motive to start a new business: entrepreneurs driven by opportunity and necessity motives. Assessing the impact of entrepreneurial exit at macroeconomic level may be an interesting instrument in order to promote entrepreneurship. Also the dynamics of entrepreneurship, expressed as the rate of nascent entrepreneurship or the prevalence of young enterprises, show a wide-ranging diversity across nations. It is therefore crucial to understand what drives the entrepreneurial activity among different countries and years. Aim of the project This study aims to explain whether business exits imply, or not, a fall in future levels of entrepreneurial activity at macroeconomic level controlling for other factors as fear of failure, the lagged logarithm of the Gross domestic Product per capita in current international dollar, the interaction between the logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product per capita and exits, the total percentage of unemployment, the percentage of unemployment female labour force and the percentage of unemployment male labour force. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first panel data study that link previous exit rates to future levels of entrepreneurial activity at macroeconomic level. Methodology In order to analyse whether business exits imply, or not, a fall in future levels of entrepreneurial activity at macroeconomic level, we estimate the following panel regression model for 41 countries from 2002 to 2007. 1 [email protected], Universitat Rovira I Virgili, Reus; Spain 5 The general model is: (1) where the subscripts denote the country i (where i = 1, 2,…, N) and the time period t (where t = 1, 2,…, T) denotes a set of explanatory variables, is a normally distributed random error term, and , and are a set of parameters to be estimated. But as we must consider the effect country (for the differences and / or individual characteristics), unobserved heterogeneity between countries and the time effect, the error term is decomposed as follows: (2) where is a country-specific effect; is a time-specific effect and is a time-varying error term. In our case, the dependent variable is tea, more specifically . So, our regression model has the following specification: (3) (4) (5) The estimation of dynamic panel data models presents some econometric problems. First, the unobserved heterogeneity of the sample firms may cause bias in the estimation of the parameters. Second, the presence of the lagged dependent variable as an explanatory variable can imply correlation between this variable and the error term, which in turn creates a problem of endogeneity. With the aim of solving with these problems, we use the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) proposed in Arellano and Bond (1991) which is more efficient than other estimations