Assessing Turkey’s Climate Change Commitments: The Case of Turkey’s Energy Policy Emre İŞERİ* and Defne GÜNAY** Abstract Key Words Climate change is increasingly recognized Sustainable Development, Climate Change, worldwide as a growing threat. The UN’s Energy Policy, Public Opinion, Turkey. sustainable development goals and the Paris Conference (COP 21) attest to this. Countries “A more immediate danger [than confront the challenge of managing the asteroids and nuclear war] is runaway trade-off between energy-intensive growth and climate change effects. In this historical climate change. A rise in ocean juncture, a renewable energy- based third temperature would melt the ice-caps, industrial revolution is underway. In the and cause a release of large amounts post-COP 21 period, it is now imperative to analyze the (non)-compliance of signatories of carbon dioxide from the ocean floor. to their commitments towards climate action. Both effects could make our climate Turkey is no exception to this trend. In this like that of Venus, with a temperature light, this paper examines the credibility of 1 Turkey’s compliance with its commitments at of 250 degrees.” Prof. Stephen Hawking the COP 21 with special focus on the public attitudes in Turkey towards climate change Introduction and the government’s (non)-adoption of climate action as a norm in its energy strategy As the globe confronts a “trilemma documents and its energy policy practices. It 2 concludes that regardless of Turkey’s COP of energy challenges” (fossil fuel 21 commitments and public perceptions based energy systems, soaring energy on climate change, Turkish policy makers consumption, and energy availability prioritize availability in its energy policy to foster economic growth. concerns), countries confront the daunting task of ensuring their “energy * Emre İşeri, Associate Prof. Dr., Yaşar securities” 3 by carefully managing the University, Department of International Relations, İzmir, Turkey. trade-off existing between energy- E-mail: [email protected] intensive growth and its environmental ** Defne Günay, Assistant Prof. Dr., Yaşar degradation effects (i.e. climate change).4 University, Department of International Relations, İzmir, Turkey. Actually, many scholars evaluate this E-mail: [email protected] debate on sustainable energy under 107 PERCEPTIONS, Summer-Autumn 2017, Volume XXII, Number 2-3, pp. 107-130. Emre İşeri & Defne Günay the topic of “the third industrial Sustainable energy related debates revolution”.5 In this parallel, renewable and policies at the domestic level have energy supplies and technological increasingly been embedded within advancements in efficiency (i.e. smart the international energy agenda.12 grids) in energy systems have been Indeed, a paradigm shift has been offering prospects for countries to taking place among domestic actors decouple economic growth and carbon towards a sustainable energy future. 6 emissions. It should be noted that Particularly domestic actors in strategies to decarbonize economic advanced democracies (e.g. Germany, growth do not solely address energy Australia, etc.) have been enquiring usage (e.g. coal consumption, energy sustainability of energy sources and efficiency, etc.), but also sustainability they have been deliberatively requesting problems directly/indirectly related future energy alternatives to fossil fuels with carbon emission levels such from their governments. Mainly due to 7 8 as industrialization, urbanization, governments’ difficulty to come up with 9 10 transportation, agriculture, and economically acceptable policies for the 11 live animal stocks. For sure, a cross- whole society, those public preferences country comparison of those factors’ for low-carbon economy have been changing emission levels through a translated into policy outcomes with longitudinal perspective would be different levels of success.13 Germany is meaningful, but due to the scope of this one of the success stories in this regard. special issue and objectives, this paper In December 1985, it was Science that mainly focuses on energy (particularly introduced climate change into the coal as the largest emitter) policy. public (media) discourse, and after its media coverage “success”, the issue has been translated in German politics, culminating in the phasing-out from Renewable energy supplies and nuclear and “Energiewende” (energy technological advancements transition) policy aims to accelerate in efficiency (i.e. smart grids) the country’s energy transition to a low in energy systems have been carbon economy.14 offering prospects for countries to decouple economic growth In this context, the credibility of Turkey’s and carbon emissions. commitment to fighting climate change in its energy policy is the focus 108 Assessing Turkey’s Climate Change Commitments of our critical approach in this paper. In this context, it can be argued that We assess the credibility of Turkey’s if the public views climate change as a COP21 commitment with reference security threat it may enable the issue to to public opinion on climate change gain political salience, or in some cases and the adoption of climate action allow the government to take military as a norm in Turkey’s energy policy or non-military measures against strategy documents and practices.15 climate change.19 Notwithstanding Although historically the impact of emerging international academic public opinion on foreign policy has literature on assessing the social been dismissed in the International impacts of energy policies,20 there are Relations literature, recent studies point few academic studies on Turkish public out that public opinion has significant attitudes towards climate change and influence on foreign policy, although their implications for Turkey’s energy 21 political elites also influence public policies. In this regard, this paper aims opinion.16 At a minimum, the public is to contribute to the scant literature by considered as a constraining factor for examining the credibility of Turkey’s the government during international climate change commitments with negotiations.17 From a rational choice reference to its energy policy. The paper perspective on compliance, one can hinges on the expectation that public argue that in a regime with regular acceptance of climate change as a elections, the incumbent government security threat would lead to a higher complies with international norms potential of compliance with the COP if there is public support for that 21 commitments by Turkey. particular international norm to get re- elected.18 Hence, the expectation is that the more the public and constituency Sustainable energy related support for compliance with Turkey’s debates and policies at the COP-21 commitments, the higher the domestic level have increasingly compliance of the government to be been embedded within the re-elected. In what follows we assess international energy agenda. Turkey’s case in this light and argue that public opinion does not lead to compliance as evidenced by Turkey’s On the other hand, in order to come energy policy strategy and practices. up with coherent domestic sustainable 109 Emre İşeri & Defne Günay energy policies to address serious risks climate change and Turkish policy- not only for current but also future makers’ COP 21 commitments, generations, it is obligatory to consult those have not been transformed into all domestic stakeholders, thereby, credible energy policy outputs by reach a consensus on energy politics. Turkey, which continues to prioritize Otherwise, it will not only create energy availability in order to foster “legitimacy deficit”,22 but also, problems the country’s high carbon-intensive associated with implementation as growth. revealed in the context of China’s 23 “authoritarian environmentalism”. Turkey’s Energy Policy at a Indeed, environmental sustainability Crossroads and gaining public consent have become criteria for successful energy In terms of primary energy, Turkey policies. Hence, as the focal actor in heavily relies on hydrocarbons (about energy policies, public opinion and 70-75%) to meet the country’s preferences, just like the sectors’ other increasing energy needs. As of players, have gained prominence in the September 2016, in the electricity 24 decision-making process. sector, Turkey’s generation mix is as To this end, the paper first briefly follows: 32,44% coal (lignite and hard coal), 32,40 % natural gas and liquefied overviews Turkey’s energy policy. natural gas (LNG), 26,20% hydro, and Secondly, it gives an account of how the 8,96 % renewables (primarily wind emerging international norm of climate 5,56%).25 Together with its pipeline action is putting pressure on countries politics,26 Turkey has prioritized the all around the world, Turkey is not exploitation of all types of energy an exception, while formulating their resources (nuclear,27 coal,28 and hydro29). energy policies. Then we survey public opinion on climate security in Turkey, Energy policies in Turkey have been followed by an analysis of the energy largely shaped by concerns related to strategy papers as well as Turkey’s supply component of energy security, energy policy practices to understand mainly due to paramount importance whether they comply with climate attributed to economic growth.30 norms. It concludes that regardless Despite the fact that Turkey has set of the Turkish public’s preference an energy efficiency target of 20% for environmental stewardship on energy intensity reduction in electricity