UNCLASSIFIED Asymmetric Operations Working Group Ambiguous Threats and External Influences in the Baltic States and Poland Phase 1: Understanding the Threat October 2014 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Cover image credits (clockwise): Pro-Russian Militants Seize More Public Buildings in Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk). By Voice of America website (VOA) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VOAPro- Russian_Militants_Seize_More_Public_Buildings_in_Eastern_Ukraine.jpg. Ceremony Signing the Laws on Admitting Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation. The website of the President of the Russian Federation (www.kremlin.ru) [CC-BY-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ceremony_signing_ the_laws_on_admitting_Crimea_and_Sevastopol_to_the_Russian_Federation_1.jpg. Sloviansk—Self-Defense Forces Climb into Armored Personnel Carrier. By Graham William Phillips [CCBY-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia. org/wiki/File:BMDs_of_Sloviansk_self-defense.jpg. Dynamivska str Barricades on Fire, Euromaidan Protests. By Mstyslav Chernov (http://www.unframe.com/ mstyslav- chernov/) (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dynamivska_str_barricades_on_fire._ Euromaidan_Protests._Events_of_Jan_19,_2014-9.jpg. Antiwar Protests in Russia. By Nessa Gnatoush [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Euromaidan_Kyiv_1-12-13_by_ Gnatoush_005.jpg. Military Base at Perevalne during the 2014 Crimean Crisis. By Anton Holoborodko (http://www. ex.ua/76677715) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2014-03-09_-_Perevalne_military_base_-_0180.JPG. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Disclaimer: The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or any other government agency. This document is not a doctrinal publication but is the perception of those individuals involved in the Asymmetric Warfare Group. The intent is to share knowledge, support decisions, and impart information in an expeditious manner. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENT................................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................2 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: MOTIVATIONS DRIVING RUSSIA . .........................................................................................3 Geopolitical Factors .............................................................................................................................................4 Strategic Concerns Over Western Alignment and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ...............................4 The Crimean Peninsula and the Black Sea ........................................................................................................5 Economic Factors ..................................................................................................................................................5 Societal Factors .....................................................................................................................................................6 Russia’s Population Decline and Demographic Shift ........................................................................................6 Russian Identity and Shared Culture in Crimea ................................................................................................6 Political Factors .....................................................................................................................................................7 Russian Politics .................................................................................................................................................7 Ukrainian Politics..............................................................................................................................................7 Historical Factors and Justifications ......................................................................................................................7 Crimean History ...............................................................................................................................................7 Ukrainian Nationalism and Cultural Politics .....................................................................................................8 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................8 RUSSIA’S EVOLVING HYBRID WARFARE DOCTRINE ..................................................................................................10 Covert Origins .....................................................................................................................................................12 Formation of Coalitions and Unions/Political Opposition .............................................................................13 Conduct Information Warfare .......................................................................................................................13 Military Strategic Deterrence Measures ........................................................................................................14 Escalations ..........................................................................................................................................................14 Political and Diplomatic Pressure ...................................................................................................................14 Start of Conflict Activities/Crisis ..........................................................................................................................15 Strategic Deployment ....................................................................................................................................15 Actions of Opposition Forces/Conduct Military Operations ...........................................................................15 Resolution/Restoration of Peace ........................................................................................................................16 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................16 Timeline of Events ...............................................................................................................................................17 WHY THE BALTIC STATES AND POLAND SHOULD TAKE NOTICE ................................................................................22 Russia’s Military Policies .....................................................................................................................................23 Russia’s Compatriots in the Baltic States ........................................................................................................23 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Russian “Soft” Power ....................................................................................................................................29 Cybersecurity in the Baltics ...........................................................................................................................30 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................30 IMPLICATIONS FOR NATO .......................................................................................................................................33 NATO Expansion and Russian Response ..............................................................................................................33 NATO’s “Broken Promises” .................................................................................................................................35 NATO Expansion to the Baltic States ...................................................................................................................35 NATO’s Reassurance Measures in the Baltic States and Poland ..........................................................................36 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................36 THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW .........................................................................................................................38 Jus Ad Bellum Considerations .............................................................................................................................38 Use of Force ...................................................................................................................................................38