Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies Socio-economic and ecological evaluation and modelling methodologies Date 29th February 2008 Report Number T10-07-13 Revision Number 1_2_P10 Deliverable Number: D10.1 Due date for deliverable: November 2007 Actual submission date: November 2007 Sue Tapsell FHRC/MU FLOODsite is co-funded by the European Community Sixth Framework Programme for European Research and Technological Development (2002-2006) FLOODsite is an Integrated Project in the Global Change and Eco-systems Sub-Priority Start date March 2004, duration 5 Years Document Dissemination Level PU Public PU PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) Co-ordinator: HR Wallingford, UK Project Contract No: GOCE-CT-2004-505420 Project website: www.floodsite.net Task 10 Deliverable D10-1 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 DOCUMENT INFORMATION Title Socio-economic and ecological evaluation methodologies Lead Author Sue Tapsell Sally Priest, Dennis Parker, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Christophe Viavattene, Theresa Wilson, John Handmer - FHRC/MU Arjan Wijdeveld, Marjolein Haasnoot, Reinaldo Penailillo - WL | Delft Hydraulics Contributors Frank van den Ende, RIZA, Dutch Governmental Institute Paul van Noort, , RIZA, Dutch Governmental Institute Frank Messner, Volker Meyer, Dagmar Haase, Sebastian Scheuer, Anne Schildt - UFZ Celine Lutoff, Isabelle Ruin - INPG Distribution Public Document Reference T10-07-13 DOCUMENT HISTORY Date Revision Prepared by Organisation Approved by Notes 30/11/07 1_0_P10 S. Tapsell FHRC/MU 10/12/07 1_1_P10 S. Tapsell FHRC/MU 29/02/08 1_2_P10 S. Tapsell FHRC/MU 1_3_P01 Paul Samuels HR Final Formatting Wallingford ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The work described in this publication was supported by the European Community’s Sixth Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of the Integrated Project FLOODsite, Contract GOCE-CT- 2004-505420. DISCLAIMER This document reflects only the authors’ views and not those of the European Community. This work may rely on data from sources external to the FLOODsite project Consortium. Members of the Consortium do not accept liability for loss or damage suffered by any third party as a result of errors or inaccuracies in such data. The information in this document is provided “as is” and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and neither the European Community nor any member of the FLOODsite Consortium is liable for any use that may be made of the information. © FLOODsite Consortium T10_07_13_Methodologies_D10_1_V_1_3_P01.doc 29th February 2008 ii Task 10 Deliverable D10-1 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 SUMMARY Theme 1 of the FLOODsite project provides new knowledge and understanding to derive risk analyses for flood prone areas. With the recognition that it is not possible to protect from all floods, innovative ways need to be found to manage the associated risks and likely consequences. The overall objective of Task 10 within this Theme is to focus research efforts on innovative methods to understand, model and evaluate socio-economic and ecological flood damages; this report presents the results of key research from four projects (Activities) conducted under Task 10 of the FLOODsite project. These reports are: 1. Building a model to estimate Risk to Life for European flood events (project document T10- 07-10) 2. Modelling the damage-reducing effects of flood warnings (project document T10-07-12) 3. Toxic Stress: the development and use of the OMEGA modelling framework in a case study (project document T10-07-14) 4. GIS-based Multicriteria Analysis as Decision Support in Flood Risk Mangement (project document T10-07-06). Each of these Activities comprises a separate, and substantial, research project in its own right encompassing the use of different disciplines and approaches and different teams of researchers. Detailed Milestone reports have been produced for each of the Activities. These reports should be referred to for full accounts of the individual research projects, including full literature reviews, research methodologies, results and discussions. The research covered in this Deliverable report encompasses research on socio-economic and ecological evaluation and modelling methodologies focusing on risk receptors, that is: people, buildings and the environment. Activity 1 focuses very much on the social impacts and damages – those to human life and health. The emphasis in Activity 2 is largely on assessing economic and financial damages and the benefits of flood warning systems. Activity 3 focuses specifically on ecological damages to the natural environment, including habitats and species. Finally, Activity 4 focuses on developing a multi-criteria approach to evaluation of various types of flood damages, which can include those addressed within the other Activities, thus drawing together the diverse elements of the research Task. The research objectives also directly relate to the European Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (EU 2007/60/EC of 23 October 2007), in particular with reference to Articles 1, 4, 6 and 7. The overall combined results from the research should lead to a better understanding and quantification of flood impacts and therefore the provision of evaluation methodologies, techniques and approaches to guide end-users in decisions on levels of investment, preparedness planning and emergency response strategies in future flood risk management across Europe. T10_07_13_Methodologies_D10_1_V_1_3_P01.doc 29th February 2008 iii Task 10 Deliverable D10-1 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 T10_07_13_Methodologies_D10_1_V_1_3_P01.doc 29th February 2008 iv Task 10 Deliverable D10-1 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 CONTENTS Document Information ............................................................................................................................ ii Document History ................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgement................................................................................................................................... ii Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................................. ii Summary ............................................................................................................................................ iii Contents ..............................................................................................................................................v 1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................13 1.1 Background...................................................................................................................13 1.2 Purpose and objectives .................................................................................................14 1.2.1 European Floods Directive..............................................................................14 1.3 Structure of report.........................................................................................................15 2 Activity 1: Building models to estimate loss of life for flood events........................................16 2.1 Introduction and Context ..............................................................................................16 2.2 Aims of Activity 1 ........................................................................................................16 2.3 Structure........................................................................................................................17 2.4 Floods and risk to life or injury ....................................................................................17 2.5 Factors affecting cause of death or injury.....................................................................18 2.5.1 Examples of common flood scenarios in Europe............................................20 2.6 Methods to calculate flood risks to people ...................................................................20 2.6.1 The ‘Flood risks to people’ methodology .......................................................21 2.6.2 Quantifying the risk to people for a single event ............................................24 2.6.3 Risk to People mapping ..................................................................................24 2.7 Initial model adaptation of the Risk to People model to the European context............27 2.8 Methodology and data collection..................................................................................28 2.8.1 Data collection methods..................................................................................28 2.8.2 Limitations and problems arising from data collection...................................29 2.8.3 Usability of Continental European data for Risk to People methodology ......29 2.9 Analysis of the circumstances and causes of European flood-related deaths...............32 2.9.1 Reporting of fatalities......................................................................................32