VOL. 97 NO. 13 1 JUL 2016 Career Paths for African-American Students Did Solar Flares Cook Up Life? High Energy Growth Forecast Through 2040 VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AT PLATE BOUNDARIES Give Your Research the Visibility it Deserves Abstract Submission Deadline: 3 August Submit by 27 July and Win Big Submit your abstract by 27 July for the chance to win Fall Meeting VIP status, including front row seats for two at all keynote lectures, and more fallmeeting.agu.org Earth & Space Science News Contents 1 JULY 2016 PROJECT UPDATE VOLUME 97, ISSUE 13 9 Creating Career Paths for African-American Students in Geosciences A new initiative at Stony Brook University teaches marketable skills, engages students in research projects, and fosters professional career tracks of underrepresented minorities. NEWS 6 Advisory Panel Calls for Large Increase for Ocean Exploration The recently established Ocean Exploration Advisory Board also urged the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 12 to increase its role in federal coordination of exploration. COVER RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT Understanding Volcanic Eruptions Researchers Attribute Where Plates Meet 31 Human Infl uence on Climate Back to 1930s A new project clarifies the relationships between tectonics and A new study finds that humans likely have volcanic systems and how they influence hazards on Italy’s Mount triggered the past 16 record-breaking hot Etna and Vulcano and Lipari islands. years on Earth, up to 2014. Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 1 Contents DEPARTMENTS Editor in Chief Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ [email protected] Editors Christina M. S. Cohen Wendy S. Gordon Carol A. Stein California Institute Ecologia Consulting, Department of Earth and of Technology, Pasadena, Austin, Texas, USA; Environmental Sciences, Calif., USA; wendy@ecologiaconsulting University of Illinois at cohen@srl .caltech.edu .com Chicago, Chicago, Ill., USA; [email protected] José D. Fuentes David Halpern Department of Meteorology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pennsylvania State Pasadena, Calif., USA; University, University davidhalpern29@gmail Park, Pa., USA; .com [email protected] Editorial Advisory Board M. Lee Allison, Earth and Space John W. Lane, Near-Surface Geophysics Science Informatics Jian Lin, Tectonophysics Mark G. Flanner, Atmospheric Figen Mekik, Paleoceanography Sciences and Paleoclimatology Nicola J. Fox, Space Physics Jerry L. Miller, Ocean Sciences and Aeronomy Michael A. Mischna, Planetary Sciences Steve Frolking, Biogeosciences Thomas H. Painter, Cryosphere Sciences Edward J. Garnero, Study of the Philip J. Rasch, Global Environmental 30 Earth’s Deep Interior Change Michael N. Gooseff, Hydrology Eric M. Riggs, Education Brian C. Gunter, Geodesy Adrian Tuck, Nonlinear Geophysics Kristine C. Harper, History Sergio Vinciguerra, Mineral 18–28 AGU News of Geophysics and Rock Physics Susan E. Hough, Natural Hazards Andrew C. Wilcox, Earth and Planetary How on Earth to Decide Where on Emily R. Johnson, Volcanology, Surface Processes Mars to Land?; Recognizing 2015 Geochemistry, and Petrology Earle Williams, Atmospheric Keith D. Koper, Seismology and Space Electricity Reviewers for AGU. Robert E. Kopp, Geomagnetism Mary Lou Zoback, Societal Impacts and Paleomagnetism and Policy Sciences 30–32 Research Spotlight Staff Streamlining Rapid Tsunami Production and Design: Faith A. Ishii, Production Manager; Melissa A. Tribur, Senior Production Specialist; Liz Castenson, Editorial and Production Coordinator; Elizabeth Forecasting; Researchers Attribute Jacobsen, Production Intern; Yael Fitzpatrick, Manager, Design and Branding; Valerie Human Influence on Climate Bassett and Travis Frazier, Electronic Graphics Specialists Back to 1930s; The Role of Water Editorial: Peter L. Weiss, Manager/Senior News Editor; Mohi Kumar, Scientific Content Editor; Randy Showstack, Senior News Writer; JoAnna Wendel, News Writer; in Earth’s Tectonic Plumbing Amy Coombs and Elizabeth Deatrick, Editorial Interns Systems; Martian Carbonates Marketing: Angelo Bouselli, Marketing Program Manager; Jamie R. Liu, Manager, 7 Spotted by the Orbiter; Improving Marketing the Identification of Extreme U.S. Advertising: Christy Hanson, Manager; Tel: +1-202-777-7536; Email: advertising@ agu.org Precipitation Trends. 3–6 News ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is also High Energy Growth, Fossil Fuel 33–35 Positions Available granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books and Dependence Forecast Through Current job openings in the Earth journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office. 2040; Did Solar Flares Cook Up Life and space sciences. Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published semi-monthly, on the 1st and 15th of the month by the American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, on Earth?; Storms Cause Infrequent USA. Periodical Class postage paid at Washington, D. C., and at additional mailing Turbulence for Aircraft, New Study offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Member Service Center, 2000 36 Postcards from the Field Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. 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Barbagallo facebook.com/AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos linkedin.com/company/american-geophysical-union youtube.com/user/AGUvideos 2 // Eos 1 July 2016 NEWS High Energy Growth, Fossil Fuel Dependence Forecast Through 2040 he world’s energy consumption will The EIA report includes some details from through 2040 coming from China, India, Indo- increase by 48% between 2012 and 2040, the Paris agreement but notes uncertainty nesia, and other developing countries in Asia. Twith fossil fuels accounting for more about whether countries will meet their cli- EIA’s Sieminski said at the briefing that than 75% of world energy use in 2040, accord- mate targets. EIA head Adam Sieminski said at some global issues increase the uncertainty of ing to the U.S. Energy Information Adminis- the briefing that incorporating country cli- the forecast, including economic growth rates tration (EIA). Fossil fuels supplied 83% of mate pledges into the forecast “is compli- in China and elsewhere, technological innova- global energy demand in 2015. cated” but that the next IEO in 2017 “will tions, the future of nuclear generating capac- Energy- related carbon dioxide (CO2) emis- probably have more to say” about those com- ity, the implementation and strength of cli- sions will increase 34% during that time span, mitments. mate policies, and unrest in oil-​­producing with annual emissions rising from 32 billion countries. metric tons in 2012 to 43 billion metric tons in Renewables on a Fast Track 2040, the agency projects. Coal will continue According to the EIA, renewable energy will be to generate the most energy-related​­ CO2 the fastest growing energy source, climbing by By Randy Showstack, Staff Writer emissions worldwide, although its share will 2.6% per year, and decline from 43% in 2012 to 38% in 2040, nuclear energy will according to International Energy Outlook 2016 increase from 4% to (IEO), an EIA report released in May at a brief- 6% of the energy pie. ing in Washington, D. C. (see http:// bit . ly/ Coal, which the EIAreport -2016). report deemed “the world’s slowest Meeting Climate Targets growing energy The numbers in the 11 May report “indicated source,” will rise by the challenge for the world to reduce global about 0.6% per year. CO2 emissions substantially by 2040 and In 2040, coal, natural beyond,” Jan Mares, senior policy adviser gas, and renewables with Resources for the Future, told Eos. The each will contribute organization is a Washington, D. C.–based just under 30% of the U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. think tank that focuses on natural resources world’s net electricity Fossil fuels continue to play a key role in meeting energy demands through 2040, and environment issues. Other energy and generation, the according to EIA’s energy outlook. Btu = British thermal unit (~1055 joules). climate analysts said the new projections report states. indicate that the means of energy production Cleetus told Eos need to shift soon if the world is to achieve that the EIA forecast climate targets. likely underestimates “The low hanging fruit, which is substitut- contributions from ing [natural] gas for coal, seems to be on track renewables and and looks pretty robust,” David Goldwyn, energy efficiency and president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, an does not address the international energy advisory consultancy, implications of rising told Eos. “But it’s also clear that we need a big methane emissions technological step change to get to 2 degrees associated with natu- [Celsius] or even frankly to stabilize emissions ral gas use. The fore- at the level we have right now. We’re not there cast “illustrates the yet, and the growth in renewables, which is pitfalls of an over- mostly hydro, is not going to get us there.” reliance on natural “A business- as- usual scenario, with no new gas as we shift away policies beyond those that exist right now, from coal,” she also would be disastrous from a climate perspec- said. tive,” Rachel Cleetus, lead economist and cli- mate policy manager for the Union of Con- Asian Energy cerned Scientists, told Eos.