The State of Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Lakes Region Rachel M. Gregg, Kirsten M. Feifel, Jessi M. Kershner, and Jessica L. Hitt October 2012 Cover photo: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) The State of Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Lakes Region October 2012 Rachel M. Gregg, Kirsten M. Feifel, Jessi M. Kershner, and Jessica L. Hitt EcoAdapt PO Box 11195 Bainbridge Island, WA 98110 Please cite this publication as: Gregg, R. M., K. M. Feifel, J. M. Kershner, and J. L. Hitt. 2012. The State of Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Lakes Region. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA. Acknowledgements Thank you to the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation for providing financial support. We would especially like to thank Sam Passmore for his guidance. Thank you to our peer reviewers, Heather Stirratt (NOAA's National Ocean Service) and Molly Woloszyn (Midwestern Regional Climate Center/Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant), for their invaluable input and insights. Finally, thank you to the numerous individuals who contributed materials and participated in interviews and surveys for this project. We hope that our products will promote and support your adaptation efforts. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 4 Climate Change and the Great Lakes Region ........................................................................... 6 Air Temperature ........................................................................................................................................................... 10 Lake Temperature and Ice Cover .............................................................................................................................. 13 Precipitation .................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Lake Levels .................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Water Chemistry ........................................................................................................................................................... 17 Adaptation Projects and Programs in the Great Lakes Region .............................................. 20 Adaptation Projects and Initiatives ........................................................................................................................... 20 Capacity Building ..................................................................................................................................................... 22 Design or reform institutions ............................................................................................................................ 22 Conduct research, studies, and assessments ................................................................................................... 27 Conduct training and planning exercises ......................................................................................................... 31 Increase/improve public awareness, education, and outreach efforts ....................................................... 34 Create/enhance resources and tools ................................................................................................................ 36 Monitor climate change impacts and adaptation efficacy ............................................................................. 39 Policy.......................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Develop/implement adaptation plans ............................................................................................................. 41 Create new or enhance existing policies or regulations ................................................................................ 43 Develop/implement adaptive management strategies .................................................................................. 45 Natural Resource Management and Conservation ............................................................................................. 47 Incorporate climate-smart guidelines into restoration .................................................................................. 47 Enhance connectivity and areas under protection ......................................................................................... 48 Reduce local climate or related change ............................................................................................................ 49 Reduce non-climate stressors likely to interact with climate change .......................................................... 50 Infrastructure, Planning, and Development ........................................................................................................ 53 Make infrastructure resistant or resilient to climate change ......................................................................... 53 Community planning (developing climate-smart communities) .................................................................. 55 Create or modify shoreline management measures ....................................................................................... 57 Develop disaster preparedness plans and policies ......................................................................................... 58 Regional Challenges and Opportunities ................................................................................. 59 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 62 Appendices .............................................................................................................................. 63 A. Climate Change Adaptation Literature ............................................................................................................ 64 B. State of Adaptation Methodology .................................................................................................................... 65 C. Adaptation Case Studies from the Great Lakes Region (by strategy) ......................................................... 67 D. Adaptation Case Studies Compendium ........................................................................................................... 76 A Roadmap for Action: The Chicago Climate Action Plan ......................................................................... 79 Adapting to Climate Change in Ontario Parks ............................................................................................... 83 Addressing Climate Change Impacts in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement .............................. 87 Addressing Climate Change in the International Upper Great Lakes Study ............................................. 90 Assessing the Relative Coastal Vulnerability of National Park Units to Sea Level Rise and Lake Level Changes ................................................................................................................................................................. 92 Building Capacity for Climate-Resilient Communities and Water Conservation in the Huron River Watershed ............................................................................................................................................................. 94 Canada’s Regional Adaptation Collaboratives Climate Change Program .................................................. 97 ClimAID: Developing a Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment for New York State .. 99 Climate Adaptation in the City of Ann Arbor, Michigan ........................................................................... 103 Climate Change Adaptation Planning at the State Level in Minnesota .................................................... 106 Climate Change Adaptation Planning at the State Level in Pennsylvania ............................................... 109 Climate Change and Coastal Adaptation Options for the Great Lakes ................................................... 112 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Planning in Wisconsin’s Lake Michigan Coastal Communities ...................................................................................................................................................... 115 Climate Change, the Great Lakes, and Mining ............................................................................................. 117 Climate Consortium for Research Action and Integration (CC-RAI) ...................................................... 119 Creating a National Adaptation Strategy for the United States: The Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force ..................................................................................................................................... 121 Developing a Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Forest and Water Resources in Alger County, Michigan ............................................................................................................................................................. 124 Developing