UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE Assessment of Shipping’s Efficiency Using Satellite AIS data Tristan Smith, Eoin O’Keeffe, Lucy Aldous and Paolo Agnolucci Prepared for the International Council on Clean Transportation March 2013 CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................................. i LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................... vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 1 OBJECTIVE ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 METHOD .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 FURTHER WORK .................................................................................................................................................. 2 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. METHODS AND DATA FOR ESTIMATING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ......................................... 8 1.1. METHOD FOR TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY CALCULATION ...................................................................... 9 1.2. DATA SOURCES AND MISSING DATA APPROACH .................................................................................. 9 1.2.1. Main engine power ................................................................................................................... 10 1.2.2. Boiler fuel consumption .......................................................................................................... 10 1.2.3. Main engine % MCR in the design condition and design speed ....................................... 11 1.2.4. Main engine specific fuel consumption ................................................................................. 11 1.2.5. Fuel type of main engine and main engine type................................................................... 12 1.2.6. Auxiliary engine assumptions .................................................................................................. 15 1.3. METHOD FOR OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY CALCULATIONS............................................................. 15 1.4. DATA SOURCES AND MISSING DATA APPROACH ................................................................................ 17 1.4.1. Identification of vessel state using AIS data ......................................................................... 18 1.4.2. Derivation of operational data ................................................................................................ 20 1.4.3. Extrapolation of operational parameters .............................................................................. 23 1.4.4. Generating the region to region flows ................................................................................... 24 1.4.5. Loading condition ..................................................................................................................... 24 1.4.6. Days at sea .................................................................................................................................. 25 1.4.7. Operating speed ........................................................................................................................ 25 1.4.8. Reliability indicators.................................................................................................................. 25 1.4.9. Speed impact parameter ........................................................................................................... 26 1.4.10. Loading condition impact parameter ..................................................................................... 28 1.4.11. Condition impact parameter ................................................................................................... 28 1.4.12. Main engine specific fuel consumption impact parameter ................................................. 30 1.4.13. Weather impact parameter ...................................................................................................... 31 1.5. DATA AND METHOD APPLICATION IN THIS STUDY ........................................................................... 32 1.5.1. Payload capacity ........................................................................................................................ 32 1.5.2. Coverage of the global fleet..................................................................................................... 33 1.5.3. Missing dwt ................................................................................................................................ 33 1.5.4. Missing speed ............................................................................................................................. 35 1.5.5. Missing design draught ............................................................................................................. 35 1.5.6. Missing data, all variables, with respect to gross tonnage .................................................. 37 2. CALCULATIONS OF WORLD FLEET ENERGY EFFICIENCY .................................................... 38 2.1. AGGREGATIONS INTO FLEET STATISTICS ........................................................................................... 39 2.2. FILTERING ................................................................................................................................................. 39 2.3. COMPARISON WITH NUMBERS OF SHIPS REPORTED IN IMO 2ND GHG ........................................ 40 2.4. VESSEL SPEEDS AND SLOW STEAMING................................................................................................. 42 2.5. FUEL CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................... 50 2.6. CAPACITY UTILISATION AND TRANSPORT WORK .............................................................................. 54 2.7. FLEET ENERGY EFFICIENCY DATA AND COMPARISON WITH IMO 2ND GHG STUDY ................ 58 2.8. SHIPPING ROUTES AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY .................................................................................... 68 2.9. UNCERTAINTY .......................................................................................................................................... 69 2.9.1. Uncertainty in an individual ship‘s technical efficiency estimate ...................................... 70 2.9.2. Uncertainty in an individual ship‘s operational and normalised operational efficiency estimate ..................................................................................................................................................... 70 2.9.3. Implications of individual ship‘s estimated uncertainty to the study of fleet aggregate statistics .................................................................................................................................................... 71 3. SHIP EFFICIENCY AND PRICES ............................................................................................................. 72 3.1. IMPORTANCE OF EFFICIENCY AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A TWO-TIER MARKET .......................... 74 3.2. RATIONALE OF THIS STUDY ................................................................................................................... 75 3.3. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH AND GUIDE FOR INTERPRETING TABULAR RESULTS............... 78 3.3.1. Mean comparison...................................................................................................................... 78 3.3.2. Regression analysis .................................................................................................................... 79 3.4. IMPACT OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY ON THE TIME CHARTER MARKET .............................................. 80 3.4.1. Evidence from the industry press .......................................................................................... 80 3.4.2. Results from mean comparison and regression analysis ..................................................... 81 3.5. IMPACT OF EFFICIENCY ON THE NEW AND SECOND HAND MARKETS .......................................... 84 3.5.1. Evidence from the industry press .......................................................................................... 84 3.5.2. Results from mean comparison and regression analysis ..................................................... 84 3.6. IMPACT OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY ON THE DEMOLITION MARKET ................................................. 92 3.6.1. Evidence from the industry press .......................................................................................... 92 3.6.2. Results from mean comparison .............................................................................................