THREATS OF RUSSIAN HARD AND SOFT POWER IN GEORGIA Tbilisi 2016 THREATS OF RUSSIAN HARD AND SOFT POWER IN GEORGIA European Initiative - Liberal Academy Tbilisi is a non-governmental, nonprofit organisation, committed to promote core democratic values, supporting peace-building and European and Euro-Atlantic integration and with that foster- ing the democratic development. The views, opinions and statements expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs only and do not necessarily reflect the position of ”The German Marshal Fund of The United States” . Therefore, the ”The German Marshal Fund of The United States” is not responsible for the content of the information material. Project Director: Lasha Tughushi Reviewer: Davit Aprasidze Administrative Supervisor:Ana Tsikhelashvili Project team: Russian Soft Power:Lasha Tugushi, Malkhaz Gagua, Gogita Gvedashvili, Nino Lapachi Economic Analysis: Giorgi Gaganidze Security Perceptions of the Russian - Georgian Confrontation Process:Giorgi Dzebisashvili Military Threats from Russia, Conflict zones; and its Regional Dimension:Giorgi Muchaidze Political and Socioeconomic Situations in the Conflict Regions:Levan Geradze Security Sector: Davit Sikharulidze Editing: Irina Kakoiashvili, Alina chaganava, Alastair George Maclaud Watt, Inge Snip Design: Elena Eltisheva , Aleko Jikuridze, Translation: Tamar Neparidze, Lali Buskivadze © European Initiative - Liberal Academy Tbilisi 50/1 Rustaveli av.,0108, Tbilisi, Georgia Tel/Fax: + (995 32) 293 11 28 Website http://www.ei-lat.ge Email: [email protected] THREATS OF RUSSIAN HARD AND SOFT POWER IN GEORGIA PREface Russia has been playing an extremely negative role in Georgia’s modern development. This is demonstrated by the de-facto annexation of almost 20% of the territory of Georgia, and also by constant attempts to change the foreign policy choices that Georgia has made, as well as their excessive interference in the domestic political processes and explicit usage of various methods of influence, including aggression. Russia has been doing this since 1990, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and, since then, changes of power in Moscow have only intensified this behavior. Russia’s action regarding Georgia is not unique. Russia treats its own neighbors the same way, including those who they consider to be their official allies. Russia’s goal is to have satellite states in the territory of the former Soviet empire, which should act as a certain buffer in relation to the rest of the world. By ‘reviving’ the superstate status of Moscow, the Russian authorities try to overshadow the necessity of reforms in the country and to divert the public opinion from domes- tic problems to foreign affairs. Regardless of what motivates Russia, as Georgia experiences the same impact – the existence of a successful democratic state perceived by Russia’s ruling regime as a direct threat and thus uses every mechanism to oppose it. Despite the above-mentioned issues, recently there has been a certain trend of “understanding” Russia among the Georgian political elite and society. Social surveys prove that Georgia’s Western choice is still irreversible. Nevertheless, the same polls indicate that the number of supporters of a so-called northern vector has increased as well. Today, we often hear the opinion that Russia is maybe not the best, but still the most pragmatic choice for Georgia among the available options, because, according to this school of thought, the European and Euro-Atlantic integration lacks prospects. On the other hand, there are some new features in the foreign policy methodology of Russia. Parallel to its hard power, Moscow is increasingly referring to some kind of mixture of so-called soft power in the international arena. This mixture, as a rule, is a varied form of economic and ideological penetration. For this, Russia finds what it considers ‘fertile’ soil within the territory of the former Soviet Union, where Russian language is still used for international communication in much of the society, and ‘linkages’ to the Soviet period still exist. This paper does not necessarily aim at ‘understanding’ Russia – as we have already mentioned, our main assumption is that the interests of present-day Russia diametrically oppose even the existence of an independent and democratic Georgia. The purpose of this research is to better un- derstand the types of political-economic or other leverages that Moscow uses, which can be used to influence the ongoing political processes in Georgia; to evaluate and measure the present-day situation, as well as the threats and risks that may emerge in the nearest future. The paper was prepared by a group of experts and the working process consisted of several stag- es. First of all, we selected the areas that we thought would most clearly demonstrate that Rus- sia has been using complex methods with regards to Georgia. Alongside elaboration of primary sources within the remit of the research, there were field studies conducted in the regions popu- lated by ethnic minorities (Kvemo Kartli and Samtskhe-Javakheti). Several focus group discussions 3 THREATS OF RUSSIAN HARD AND SOFT POWER IN GEORGIA were held and face-to-face in-depth interviews were arranged with decision makers and experts in Georgia. The following dominant narratives were identified for assessing Russia’s influences and leverages for affecting political processes in Georgia: • Russia’s ‘soft power’: influence on the media, political organizations and civil society; • Economic relations between Georgia and Russia; • Russia’s hard power: occupied territories and security. The paper provides a detailed study of the impact of Russian propaganda on the Georgian media, and presents significant information about the Russian funding and involvement of pro-Russian discourse in political parties and community organizations. The paper analyzes the economic relations between Russia and Georgia in details including trade relations between the two countries, dynamics of investment and financial relations, as well as the current situation in this respect in several important industries of the economy. Obviously, we could not avoid the annexation processes that takes place in conflict zones taking place there, which is not limited to dislocating Russian military officers in the region only, and aims at turning the local institutions and society into a supplement to Russia. The paper also speaks about the threats that are related to the probability of direct aggression against Georgia by Russia, actions of Moscow in the region – not only in the North Caucasus, but also in Armenia (where the Russian military bases are located) and in Azerbaijan. The paper includes an analysis of threats and risks, and also provides recommendations for ad- dressing them. This research is intended for the public sector, as well as for the NGOs and interna- tional organizations, the media and other stakeholders. This paper could not cover all the aspects of Russia-Georgia relations. The main purpose of the re- search was to study the existing and possible mechanisms of the Russian influence. In this respect, and especially considering its complex nature, the research is a novelty by itself. However, further study needs to be conducted in many different directions. 4 THREATS OF RUSSIAN HARD AND SOFT POWER IN GEORGIA ConTEnts Preface .................................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter I 1. Russian ‘Soft Power’ .......................................................................................................... 7 1. 1. Russian Propaganda in Georgia ...........................................................................................9 1.2. Russian-language media in Georgia ..................................................................................12 1.3. Russian Propaganda in the Georgian Media .....................................................................17 2. International Instruments of Russian Propaganda.......................................................... 19 2.1 Asymmetric information war.............................................................................................. 21 2.2 Response of International Community to the Russian Propaganda ...................................22 3. Russian NGOs and Their Georgian Counterparts ............................................................ 23 Gorchakov Fund ........................................................................................................................23 Russkiy Mir (the Russian World - Русский Мир) .......................................................................25 Russian World in Georgia .........................................................................................................26 Lev Gumilyov Center ................................................................................................................26 Rossotrudnichestvo – Ros-Cooperation ....................................................................................26 Multinational Georgia’s Anti-fascist Coalition ...........................................................................26 3.1 Russian Money in Georgia ...................................................................................................30 4. Political Landscape of Georgia .......................................................................................... 32 Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia ....................................................................................32