Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ,-1LE COPY. I Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 4138-MAI STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT REPUBLIC OF MALAWI Public Disclosure Authorized January 28, 1983 Public Disclosure Authorized Education Projects Division Eastern Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Malawi Kwacha (MK) US$1.00 = HK 1.08 MK 1.00 = US$ 0.92 SDR 1.00 = US$ 1.10311 MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 square meter (m2) = 10.76 square feet (ft2) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.6214 mile (mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.471 acres (ac) ABBREVIATIONS EPD - Economic Planning Division of the Office of the President and Cabinet IPA - Institute of Public Administration JC - Junior Certificate MCA - Malawi College of Accountancy MCC - Malawi Correspondence College MCE - Malawi Certificate of Education MIE - Malawi Institute of Education MOE - Ministry of Education and Culture MOW - Ministry of Works PIU - Project Implementation Unit PSLC - Primary School Leaving Certificate PTTC - Primary T'eacherTraining College REPUBLIC OF MALAWI FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT REPUBLIC OF MALAWI Table of Contents BASIC DATA PAGE No. I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTAND MANPOWERNEEDS Geographic and Socio-Economic Setting .......... ........... 1 Development Objectives and Trends ......................... 1 Manpower Situation and Needs . ............................ 2 II. THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM Summary ........................... ...................... 3 Management of the Education System ......................... 3 Quality of Primary Education ........................... 4 Expansion of Secondary Education ........................... 6 Training of Mliddle and High Level Mlanpower ...... ........... 9 Financing of Education ................................... 10 Government Policies and Plans . .............................12 III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE, KNOWLEDGE,AND LENDING STRATEGY Past Experience and Lessons Learned ......... ............... 13 Bank Group Sector Knowledge ................................ 14 Bank Group Lending Strategy ............................... 15 IV. THE PROJECT Objectives ................................... 16 Primary Teacher Training ................................ 18 Correspondence Education ................................ 19 Secondary Education ................................... 20 Accountancy Education ................................... 21 Studies, Evaluation and Auditing .......... ............... 21 Female Participation in the Project ........ ............... 22 Monitoring of Education Financing .......... ................ 22 Summary of Technical Assistance and Training ................ 23 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visited Malawi in June 1982. The mission consisted of Mr. L. Wolff (Education Planner, mission leader), Ms. R. Brandenburg (Economist), Mr. K. Andersen (Architect, consultant), Mr. T. Derkx (Specialist in Non-formal Education, consultant), and Mr. P. Holzer (Specialist in Accountancy Education, consultant). The project was further discussed in the field in October 1982 by Mr. L. Wolff and Mrs. N. Shields (Economist). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. V. PROJECT COST AND FINAITCIAL PLAN PAGE No. Project Cost ... ..... .. .o.........eo.o.o..o...o. oooe.. 24 Financial Plan . .. ............. .... o..........o....26 VI. IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND REPORTING Implementation ............. I....................... 27 Procurement ......... .. ............................ 28 Disbursement ......................... n......... 29 Reporting and Auditing .. .. ............... ... 29 VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits .......... ......... ...... 30 Risks ................. .o7....... .O...o.......... e...... 31 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION . ............ ..... 31 ANNEXES Annex 1. Supporting Tables and Charts Table 1. Higher Level Employment in Selected Occupations, 1979 Table 2. Forecast of High and Middle Level Manpower 1980-1990 Table 3. Comparative Education Indicators Table 4. Enrollments and Internal Efficiency in Primary Education, 1980-1990 Table 5. Primary School Enrollments and Teacher Needs, 1979-1990 Table 6. Secondary School Enrollments and Teacher Needs, 1979-1990 Table 7. Enrollment in the Malawi Correspondence College, 1975-1981 Table 8. Estimated Expenditures, Ministry of Education and Culture, 1980-1990 Table 9. Summary of Estimated Project Costs Table 10. Baseline Costs by Component Table 11. Estimated Project Costs by Category Table 12. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements Chart 1. Full-time Enrollment and Population Pyramid, 1980 Chart 2. Structure of the Formal Education System Chart 3. Organization of the Ministry of Education and Culture Chart 4. Implementation Schedule Annex 2. Key Indicators for Project Implementation Annex 3. Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File MAP -- IBRD No. 16689 REPUBLIC OF MALAWI BASIC DATA General Area (including lake) 118,000 sq.km Area (land only) 94,000 sq.km Population (1981) 6.1 million GNP Per Capita (1981) US$200 Annual Growth Rate of Population (1966-1977) 2.9% Education School Year October-August Adult Literacy Rate (1977) 25% Gross Enrollment Ratios (1981): Primary Education (6-13 age group) 62.0% Secondary Education (14-17 age group) 4.0% Higher Education 0.4% Central Government Expenditures on Education as Percentage of Total Government Expenditures (1981) Capital 11.9% Recurrent 11.2% Total 11.4% Total Ministry of Education Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP (1981) 3.5% I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER NEEDS Geographic and Socio-Economic Setting 1.01 Malawi is a land-locked country in South Eastern Africa, bordered in the north and north-east by Tanzania, to the east, south, and south-west by Mozambique, and to the west by Zambia. It has a total area of about 118,000 km2 of which 24,000 km2 is lake surface. The land area consists of a central plateau, a mountainous northern region, southern low lands, and the lake shore districts. Malawi's main physical assets are moderately fertile soils, adequate water resources, and a climate favorable to a wide range of agricultural products, including tobacco, sugar cane, and cotton. Malawi's population, which was estimated to be about 6.1 million in mid-1981, grew at a rate of 2.9% from 1966-77 and population growth is now estimated at 3.4% p.a. With an average density of 59 persons per km2 of land area, Malawi is one of the most densely populated countries in Africa. However, the population is scattered and only 10% live in urban areas. 1.02 Malawi's GDP per capita in 1981 was estimated at US$200 equivalent. Between 1969 and 1979, Malawi made considerable economic progress and real GDP grew at an average of 5.5% p.a. However, in 1980, the economy of Malawi experienced a sharp break with past trends. Rates of growth in 1980 and 1981 are estimated at 0.2% and 0.9% respectively, resulting in decreases in per capita income. The economy has remained highly vulnerable to international price fluctuations, especially those of its two primary export commodities, tea and tobacco. Since 1978 the country's balance of payments situation has deteriorated, principally because of declines in commodity prices and a doubling of the fuel import bill. Transport difficulties through the Mozambique ports which serve Malawi have also slowed GDP growth. In response to this situation, in early 1982 the Government introduced short term demand management measures, including revenue increases and restraints on recurrent and capital expenditures. Development Objectives and Trends 1.03 The Statement of Development Policies 1971-1980 set out the Government's basic priorities for development and provided a framework for long-term development planning. The Government has not prepared a development statement for the 1980's similar to that of the 1970's but has produced rolling five year development plans concentrated on capital investments. Recently the Government prepared informal documents providing revenue and recurrent cost projections. These documents envisaged an average rate of growth in real GDP of 4.8% p.a. through 1985, lower than the 6.5% rate recorded throughout the 1960's and 1970's. The Government has since revised downward its projections and now expects 3% p.a. growth in GDP through 1985, resulting in a stagnation of per capita income. During this period the Government plans to hold the current account deficits at manageable levels through diversification and acceleration of agricultural export growth and improvement in the financial performance of the Government and para-statal enterprises. -2- Manpower Situation and Needs 1.04 Employment. Reliable data concerning employment and earnings in Malawi are available only for the formal sector of the economy, which accounts for little more than 10% of the total labor force. Preliminary estimates indicate that the volume of paid employment increased from about 339,000 in 1978 to only about 365,000 in 1981, a result of the overall slowdown in GDP growth. In 1980, it was estimated