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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. STRIKINGFIRST Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy KARL P. MUELLER JASEN J. CASTILLO FORREST E. MORGAN NEGEEN PEGAHI BRIAN ROSEN Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Striking first : preemptive and preventive attack in U.S. national security policy / Karl P. Mueller ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3881-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. National security—United States. 2. Preemtive attack (Military science) 3. United States—Military policy. 4. United States—Defenses. I. Mueller, Karl P. UA23.S835 2006 355'.033573—dc22 2006016181 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Pete Soriano © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Following the terrorist attacks against the United States on Septem- ber 11, 2001, preemptive and preventive attack became the subjects of extensive policy attention and debate as the nation embarked on a global campaign against al Qaeda, associated terrorist groups, and their sponsors and supporters. U.S. leaders recast the national secu- rity strategy to place greater emphasis on the threats posed by violent nonstate actors and by states from which they might acquire nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, and promised that the United States would take advantage of opportunities to strike at potential adversaries before they attacked. In response to this shift in policy emphasis, RAND Project AIR FORCE conducted a study, titled “Preemptive and Preventive Mili- tary Strategies in U.S. National Security Policy,” to examine the nature and implications of this doctrine of preemption. This study focused on addressing three central questions: First, under what conditions is preemptive or preventive attack worth considering or pursuing as a response to perceived security threats? Second, what role should such “first-strike” strategies be expected to play in future U.S. national secu- rity policy? Finally, what implications do these conclusions have for planners and policymakers in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) and the other armed services as they design military capabilities and strategies to sup- port national policy and deal with emerging security threats in the next decade? The research reported here was sponsored by the Director of Oper- ational Planning, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. iii iv Striking First RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Table ................................................................ ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................xxvii Glossary .........................................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attacks......................... 1 Introduction ........................................................................ 1 The Doctrine of Preemption and the U.S. National Security Strategy ...... 3 Preemption and Prevention ....................................................... 6 Preemptive Attack ............................................................... 6 Preventive Attack ................................................................ 8 Anticipatory Attack.............................................................10 Anticipatory Attack Versus Operational Preemption.......................14 Studying Preemptive and Preventive Attack ...................................15 CHAPTER TWO The Best Defense? When and Why States Strike First....................19 Introduction .......................................................................19 Prevention and Preemption in International Politics ........................ 20 Preemptive War and First-Strike Advantage................................ 22 Preventive War and the Balance of Power ...................................29 The Costs, Benefits, and Risks of Anticipatory Attack .......................32 The Advantage of Striking First ...............................................33 v vi Striking First The Certainty of the Threat .................................................. 36 Weighing the Pros and Cons of Anticipatory Attack...................... 38 CHAPTER THREE Attacking in Self-Defense: Legality and Legitimacy of Striking First ............................ 43 The United States’ View of Anticipatory Attack.............................. 43 International Law ................................................................ 48 Legal Use of Force ............................................................... 50 Force Authorized by the Security Council...................................51 Self-Defense .....................................................................52 Proportionality ................................................................. 54 Necessity .........................................................................55 Alternative Standards for Anticipatory Self-Defense .......................59 Anticipatory Attack Against Nonstate Actors .............................. 66 Entering Other States to Attack Nonstate Actors...........................67 The Significance of Legality .....................................................71 The U.N. Security Council ....................................................74 The International Court of Justice ............................................74 The International Criminal Court ............................................75 Legitimacy ........................................................................ 86 Conclusion .........................................................................89 CHAPTER FOUR Preemptive and Preventive Strategies in Future U.S. National Security Policy: Prospects and Implications ..........................91 Striking First: Rhetoric and Reality ........................................... 92 Changing Perceptions of Power and Threats ................................93 Persistent Obstacles to Striking First ........................................ 94 Anticipatory Attacks After Operation Iraqi Freedom ..................... 96 Anticipatory Attack in Future