Climate proofing rural resource protection policies and strategies in Wales Science Report: SC030298/SR SCHO0407BMGV-E-P The Environment Agency is the leading public body protecting and improving the environment in England and Wales. It’s our job to make sure that air, land and water are looked after by everyone in today’s society, so that tomorrow’s generations inherit a cleaner, healthier world. Our work includes tackling flooding and pollution incidents, reducing industry’s impacts on the environment, cleaning up rivers, coastal waters and contaminated land, and improving wildlife habitats. This report is the result of research commissioned and funded by the Environment Agency’s Science Programme. Published by: Authors: Environment Agency, Rio House, Waterside Drive, Edwards-Jones G, Harris I M, Dyer J & Wragg A Aztec West, Almondsbury, Bristol, BS32 4UD Tel: 01454 624400 Fax: 01454 624409 Dissemination Status: www.environment-agency.gov.uk Unrestricted ISBN: 978-1-84432-699-0 Keywords: climate change, policy, risk assessment, Wales, countryside © Environment Agency – April 2007 Research Contractor: All rights reserved. This document may be reproduced Prof Gareth Edwards-Jones, with prior permission of the Environment Agency. School of the Environment and Natural Resources, University of Wales, Bangor, The views and statements expressed in this report are Deiniol Road, Bangor, Gwynedd, N. Wales, LL57 2UW those of the author alone. The views or statements expressed in this publication do not necessarily Project Managers: represent the views of the Environment Agency and the Dr Harriet Orr, Environment Agency Research Fellow, Environment Agency cannot accept any responsibility for Geog. Dept, such views or statements. Lancaster University, LA1 4YB and This report is printed on Cyclus Print, a 100% recycled Dr Clive Walmsley, Counntryside Council for Wales, stock, which is 100% post consumer waste and is totally Maes Y Ffynnon, Penrhosgarnedd chlorine free. Water used is treated and in most cases Bangor, Wales, LL57 2DW returned to source in better condition than removed. Science Project Number: Further copies of this report are available from: SC030298 The Environment Agency’s National Customer Contact Centre by emailing: Product code: SCHO0407BMGV-E-P [email protected] or by telephoning 08708 506506. ii Science Report: Climate proofing rural resource protection policies and strategies in Wales Science at the Environment Agency Science underpins the work of the Environment Agency. It provides an up-to-date understanding of the world about us and helps us to develop monitoring tools and techniques to manage our environment as efficiently and effectively as possible. The work of the Environment Agency’s Science Group is a key ingredient in the partnership between research, policy and operations that enables the Environment Agency to protect and restore our environment. The science programme focuses on five main areas of activity: • Setting the agenda, by identifying where strategic science can inform our evidence-based policies, advisory and regulatory roles; • Funding science, by supporting programmes, projects and people in response to long-term strategic needs, medium-term policy priorities and shorter-term operational requirements; • Managing science, by ensuring that our programmes and projects are fit for purpose and executed according to international scientific standards; • Carrying out science, by undertaking research – either by contracting it out to research organisations and consultancies or by doing it ourselves; • Delivering information, advice, tools and techniques, by making appropriate products available to our policy and operations staff. Steve Killeen Head of Science Science Report: Climate proofing rural resource protection policies and strategies in Wales iii Executive summary Public policy plays an important role in adapting to climate change. This project assessed the capacity and resilience of six natural resource policies, strategies and plans to function in changed climates in 2020 and 2050. The schemes chosen for analysis were: • Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) • Welsh agri-environment schemes (Tir Gofal) • Woodlands Strategy • Biomass Action Plan • Catchment Abstraction Management Strategies (CAMS) • Catchment Flood Management Plans (CFMP), These collectively cover nature conservation, water resource management, flood protection and economic and recreational use of the countryside. Each of these initiatives was analysed using a common framework, which assessed the vulnerability of key components of each policy to climate change. Overall policy vulnerability was then considered as the sum of its key components, so that if one or more component had a high probability of failure, then the overall policy was considered to be vulnerable. The project used the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) risk assessment methodology, developing risk assessment matrices which demonstrate how generic policy analysis can be used to assess vulnerability to climate change and guide adaptation at a scale useful to resource managers and policy makers. The study created the first database of climate change impacts on socio-economic indicators for Wales. Future climate and socio-economic scenarios were considered for 2020 and 2050 (developed from UKCIP02 and UKCIP socio-economic scenarios) and applied to a case study in the River Usk Catchment, South Wales. Results are presented for each policy area. SSSI policy is not robust in conditions of climate change. Major risks relate to the inability of the policy to guarantee the survival of Britain’s wildlife. This aspect may fail as species disperse in response to climate and communities currently protected by SSSI change in nature. Policy adaptation is limited as the policy is firmly site-based, while the future distribution of species across the UK is uncertain. However, SSSI sites could play an important role in landscape scale approaches to conservation, including developing sufficient levels of connectivity. Enabling species to move and colonise new habitats, is key to a more appropriate policy which would interact positively with others. Welsh agri-environment policies have a potentially resilient structure. Regular review of management practices and payments renders them potentially well suited to adapt to changing climatic and socio-economic conditions. However, the policy assumes farmers will adopt it voluntarily. Continuation of these policies depends on positive attitudes towards environmental protection and farming and proven success in enhancing biodiversity. Agri-environment schemes in general have the potential to enhance the performance of other policies through components which seek or need to act at landscape scales. After some modification, targeted agri-environment schemes could help develop landscape level planning and in this way, would contribute to maintaining the resilience of other policies discussed here. iv Science Report: Climate proofing rural resource protection policies and strategies in Wales The success of the Woodland Strategy for Wales depends on the future demand for timber products, the world price for timber and future levels of environmental awareness. Policy components seeking to develop new woodland could enhance biodiversity by reinforcing strategies that enhance habitat connectivity. However, conflicts may arise between new woodlands managed for timber and biodiversity conservation. There is great potential for landscape level planning of new woodlands to support other conservation and water resource policies, but more research is needed. The resilience of the policy will also relate to the provenance of trees, planting urban and shade trees, maximising carbon sequestration and ensuring that new plantings consider fire management. The Biomass Action Plan depends on viable markets for biomass products, to encourage investment by farmers to help meet climate policy targets. There are potential environmental problems associated with wide scale planting of commercial biomass crops and some of these may be exacerbated under climate change, such as water use and soil management. However, strategic landscape planting of biomass could potentially support the woodland strategy, conservation policy and water resource planning. The vulnerability of this policy depends on political attitudes and market trends. CAMS is only one part of the overall UK water resource planning framework, and in itself is a flexible policy with regular review periods which should reduce its vulnerability to climate change. However, the policy faces a serious challenge in seeking to balance social and environmental demands on water resources under a changed climate of decreased rainfall. There is an urgent need to encourage water efficiency and enhance water storage in many catchments. There may also be a need to restrict further urban developments in some catchments. Only if water demand is managed can the ecological aspirations of CAMS and wider water resource planning be met. CFMP policy is resilient, with regular reviews of activities, and has the potential to become a very inclusive and participatory process, as is being attempted in Wales. However, it has a high risk of failure due to uncertainty in predicting the likely frequency, magnitude and social and economic impact of future floods. CFMPs could potentially interact with other land use policies, such as developing woodlands in key places to increase infiltration of water