WHY EUROPE SHOULD EMBRACE TURKEY Katinka Barysch, Steven Everts and Heather Grabbe The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to improving the quality of the debate on the European Union. It is a forum for people with ideas from Britain and across the continent to Why Europe discuss the many political, economic and social challenges facing Europe. It seeks to work with similar bodies in other European countries, North America and elsewhere in the world. The CER is pro - E u ropean but not uncritical. It re g a rds European integration as largely beneficial but recognises that in many respects the Union does not work well. The CER there f o re aims to pro m o t e should new ideas for re f o rming the European Union. Director: CHARLES GRANT ADVISORY BOARD embrace PERCY BARNEVIK......................................... Board member, General Motors and Former Chairman, AstraZeneca CARL BILDT............................................................. Chairman, Kreab Group and Former Swedish Prime Minister ANTONIO BORGES..................................................................................................... Former Dean of INSEAD Turkey NICK BUTLER (CHAIR).......................................................................... Group Vice President, Strategy, BP p.l.c. LORD DAHRENDORF ................................... Former Warden of St Antony’s College, Oxford & EU Commissioner VERNON ELLIS............................................................................................ International Chairman, Accenture RICHARD HAASS.................................................................................. President, Council on Foreign Relations LORD HANNAY................................................................................... Former Ambassador to the UN & the EU IAN HARGREAVES........................................................ Group Director of Corporate and Public Affairs, BAA plc LORD HASKINS OF SKIDBY.......................................................................... Former Chairman, Northern Fo o d s FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG......................................................... D i r e c t o r, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique C ATHERINE KELLEHER........................................................... Visiting Research Professor, US Naval War College LORD KERR............ D i r e c t o r, Rio Tinto, Shell, and Scottish Investment Trust and Former Ambassador to the EU & the US, and Former Permanent Under Secretary, FCO FIORELLA KOSTORIS PADOA SCHIOPPA.............................................. P r o f e s s o r, La Sapienza University, Rome RICHARD LAMBERT.............. Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England and former editor, FT PASCAL LAMY................................................................................................ Former European Commissioner D AVID MARSH.................................................................................................... Pa r t n e r, Droege & Comp. AG DOMINIQUE MOÏSI................................................ Senior Advisor, Institut Français des Relations Internationales JOHN MONKS.............................................................. General Secretary, European Trade Union Confederation DAME PAULINE NEVILLE-JONES................................ Chairman, QinetiQ p.l.c. and former Political Director, FCO WANDA RAPACZYNSKI.................................................................. President of Management Board, Agora SA Katinka Barysch, Steven Everts LORD ROBERTSON OF PORT ELLEN..Deputy chairman, Cable and Wireless, and former Secretary General of NATO LORD SIMON OF HIGHBURY..................................... Former Minister for Trade and Competitiveness in Europe and Heather Grabbe PETER SUTHERLAND.......................................................... Chairman, BP p.l.c. & Goldman Sachs International ADAIR TURNER................................................................................. Vice Chairman, Merrill Lynch Holdings Ltd ANTÓNIO VITORINO...................................................................................... Former European Commissioner Published by the Centre for European Reform (CER), 29 Tufton Street, London, SW1P 3QL Telephone + 44 20 7233 1199, Facsimile + 44 20 7233 1117, [email protected], www. c e r. o r g . u k © CER SEPTEMBER 2005 ★ ISBN 1 901229 63 7 ABOUT THE AUTHORS AUTHORS’ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Katinka Bary s c h is chief economist at the Centre for Euro p e a n The CER would like to thank APCO Europe and the Open Society R e f o rm, where she also runs the CER re s e a r ch programmes on Institute for their support of the CER Turkey programme. The Russia, China and Tu r k e y. She previously worked for the Economist authors are grateful to the many policy-makers, officials, academics Intelligence Unit. Her CER publications include: ‘Embracing the and journalists who have contributed their views to the chapters of dragon: the EU’s partnership with China’ (with Charles Grant and this pamphlet. They would also like to thank the CER staff for Mark Leonard, May 2005); ‘The EU and Russia: strategic partners commenting on drafts, as well as editing and designing this pamphlet. or squabbling neighbours?’ (May 2004) and ‘Does enlarg e m e n t matter for the EU economy?’ (March 2003). The opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily re fle c t those of APCO Europe or the Open Society Institute. Steven Evert s is an adviser to Javier Solana, the EU’s high re p r esentative for foreign and security policy. He wrote his ★ contribution to this pamphlet when he was senior re s e a rch fellow at the CER. While at the CER he also wrote ‘Engaging Iran: a test case for EU foreign policy’ (March 2004); ‘The EU and the Middle East: a call for action’ (January 2003) and ‘Shaping a credible EU fore i g n policy’ (January 2002). The views expressed in his chapter are his own and do not represent those of any institution. Heather Grabbe is a member of the cabinet of the Commissioner for enlargement, Olli Rehn. She was the CER’s deputy director until December 2004. Her CER publications include ‘The constellations of Europe: how enlargement will transform the EU’ (April 2004); ‘Who’s ready for enlargement?’ (with Katinka Barysch, November 2002) and ‘Profiting from EU enlargement’ (July 2001). The chapters in this pamphlet, written when she was at the CER, reflect her personal views and not those of any institution. ★ Copyright of this publication is held by the Centre for European Reform. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non- commercial use. Any other use requires the prior written permission of the Centre for European Reform. Contents About the authors Authors’ acknowledgements 1 Introduction by Katinka Barysch 1 2 From drift to strategy: the case for Turkey’s accession by Heather Grabbe 11 3 The economics of Turkish accession by Katinka Barysch 23 Box on Turkey and EU foreign policy by Charles Grant 43 4 An asset but not a model: Turkey, the EU and the wider Middle East by Steven Everts 47 5 When negotiations begin: the next phase in EU-Turkey relations by Heather Grabbe 69 1 Introduction by Katinka Barysch Many Turks heaved a sigh of relief in December 2004, when EU leaders declared that Turkey could start accession negotiations in October 2005. Some 40 years after the EU had first opened up the p rospect of membership, that goal finally appeared to be within re a c h . Yet as the opening of those accession talks approaches, the mood in Turkey is decidedly sombre. The EU is preoccupied with its own i n t e rnal problems, following the collapse of its constitutional tre a t y and bitter rows over the EU budget. Recent polls show that a majority of West Europeans are now against Turkish membership. Germ a n y ’s likely next chancellor, and most of the plausible candidates for F r a n c e ’s presidential elections, are openly arguing for a ‘privileged p a rtn ership’ instead of full EU membership. Meanwhile, re f o rm s within Turkey have slowed, and the Turkish public is becoming less enthusiastic about EU accession. One thing is clear: Turkish accession will be a long and often difficult journ e y. And it is only just beginning. Despite all the difficulties, it is important to remember the o p p o rtunities that Tu r k e y ’s accession offers for both sides. The chapters in this pamphlet look at Turkish EU entry from various angles, and they all conclude that Turkey is more likely to be an asset for the EU than a burden. Of course, Tu r k e y ’s entry will change the EU. But, as Heather Grabbe argues in Chapter 2, the cosy, cohesive club that many of Tu r k e y ’s opponents seek to defend ceased to exist a long time ago. With 25 (soon to be 27) members, the EU is already becoming more diverse and flexible. Turkey will reinforce these existing trends rather than take the EU into a completely new d i rec tion. In economics, a young and fast-growing Turkey could add new dynamism to a slow-growing and ageing EU economy. In Chapter 3, I argue for the EU’s existing members to take a long-term 2 Why Europe should embrace Turkey I n t r o d u c t i o n 3 view: will the EU still have reasons to worry about Tu r k i s h debt relief in Africa. Grabbe argues that the Turkish government membership in 10 to 15 years time? If Germany, France and other should redouble its efforts to explain to the country’s people and EU countries have not overcome their economic