RFNC Election 2018 Report NC House of Representatives With Democrats in 170 legislative seats, Republicans in 169, and even Libertarians filing in 35 legislative districts, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. And with no race on the ballot above Supreme Court, these elections will get more attention than ever before. This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling plus qualitative factors like local issues and relative candidate strength. In total, we think that 36 House races and 13 Senate races are shaping up to have competitive campaigns run by both of the major parties in districts that could conceivably go to either. We have also identified a handful of other races worth keeping an eye on for other reasons. A few caveats before we get to the districts: Expect the unexpected: If we’ve learned anything from the last two years it’s that changing political dynamics, both local and national, combined with some unpredictable court rulings mean any time you feel in control, something will upend all expectations. Republicans have shown they will do anything to rig the system to their favor making things unpredictable. Redrawn maps: while we have a high level of confidence in the data we’re using, the recent nature of the map redraw (with challenges to some district lines still under consideration) makes analysis with 100 percent accuracy incredibly difficult. The blue moon: The lack of a statewide race above the NC Supreme Court seat means that turnout will be even more difficult to predict than in any election past. We are largely looking to last year’s Gubernatorial race along with some key demographics as predictors, but those are far from perfect for this year’s blue moon election. During the last blue moon election in 2006 just 37% of voters showed up, the lowest since 1974 and 20% less than the lowest presidential election year. Libertarians and unaffiliateds: As we noted Libertarians have filed a record number of candidates; in addition, the threshold for unaffiliated candidates to qualify for the ballot has been lowered. Folks outside the two major parties are a huge segment of the electorate and those candidates could play a decisive role in this year’s elections. Unaffiliated candidates have until May 8 to file and until June 11 to collect signatures from 4% of registered voters in their district. These are analyses not endorsements: we’ve looked for races that could be competitive in the general and made some educated guesses in a few primaries, but that shouldn’t be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another. With those caveats out of the way, the second part of our report will take a look at 13 NC Senate districts that will have the most competitive general elections, and three other races worth keeping an eye on. District Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate County Makeup Bertie: 25% Camden: 15% Chowan: 21% 1 Ron Wesson Ed Goodwin Perquimans: 19% Tyrrell: 4% Washington: 17% 2 Darryl Moss Larry Yarborough Granville: 48% Person: 52% Gates: 15% Hertford: 28% 5 Howard Hunter Phillip Smith Pasquotank: 58% 6 Tess Judge Bobby Hanig Currituck: 32% Dare: 47% Hyde: 6% Pamlico:15% 7 Bobbie Richardson Lisa Stone Barnes Franklin: 79% Nash: 21% 12 George Graham Chris Humphrey Lenoir: 78% Pitt: 22% 19 Marcia Morgan Ted Davis New Hanover: 100% 20 Leslie Cohen Holly Grange New Hanover: 100% 21 Raymond Smith Robert Freeman Sampson: 19% Wayne 81% 35 Terence Everitt Chris Malone Wake: 100% 36 Julie von Haefen Nelson Dollar Wake: 100% 37 Sydney Batch John Adcock Wake: 100% 40 Joe John Marilyn Avila Wake: 100% 44 Billy Richardson Linda Devore Cumberland: 100% 46 Barbara Yates-Lockamy Brenden Jones Columbus: 42% Robeson: 58% 47 Charles Graham Jarrod Lowery Robeson: 100% 48 Garland Pierce Russell Walker Hoke: 56% Scotland: 44% 51 Lisa Mathis John Sauls Harnett: 27% Lee: 73% 59 Steven Buccini Jon Hardister Guilford: 100% 62 Martha Shafer John Faircloth Guilford: 100% 63 Erica McAdoo Steve Ross Alamance: 100% 64 Cathy Von Hassel-Davies Dennis Riddell Alamance: 100% 74 Terri LeGrand Debra Conrad Forsyth: 100% 75 Dan Besse Donny Lambeth Forsyth: 100% 82 Aimy Steele Linda Johnson Cabarrus: 100% 83 Gail Young Larry Pittman Cabarrus: 82% Rowan: 18% 93 Ray Russell Jonathan Jordan Ashe: 34% Watauga: 66% 98 Christy Clark John Bradford Mecklenburg: 100% 103 Rachel Hunt Bill Brawley Mecklenburg: 100% 104 Brandon Lofton Andy Dulin Mecklenburg: 100% 105 Wesley Harris Scott Stone Mecklenburg: 100% 115 John Ager Amy Evans Buncombe: 100% 116 Brian Turner Marilyn Brown Buncombe: 100% 118 Rhonda Schandevel Michele Presnell Haywood: 57% Madison: 29% Yancey: 14% 119 Joe Sam Queen Mike Clampitt Haywood: 40% Jackson: 42% Swain: 17% Race to Watch 3 Barbara Lee Michael Speciale Craven: 100% 67 Karen Webster Wayne Sasser Stanly: 60% Cabarrus: 40% Note: Incumbents are in bold Competitive Districts House District 1: Democrat Ron Wesson faces former state ferry director and Chowan County Commissioner Ed Goodwin. This open district is one of the three most impacted by the ruling against the unconstitutional racial gerrymanders of prior maps. HD1 incumbent Bob Steinburg chose to run for Senate rather than seek election in the new, Democratic leaning version of the district. Wesson has been a Bertie County commissioner, the most populous county in this district, since 2012. House District 2: Incumbent Republican Larry Yarborough will face Democrat Darryl Moss. Moss has served as Mayor of Creedmoor since 1999 and is a strong challenger, having seen the population of his town more than double while Mayor. Yarborough has been a loyal lieutenant to Speaker Moore since his election in 2014 when Democrat Winkie Wilkins retired. House District 5: Incumbent Democrat Howard Hunter has seen his district become more competitive in newly drawn maps. Hunter’s district as previously drawn was ruled an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and was “packed” with African American voters. Due to the redraw, HD5 now has just 60% of the voters that lived in the HD5 that Hunter ran for in 2016. Phillip Smith House District 6: After defeating clearly deeply unpopular incumbent Republican Beverly Boswell, Republican Bobby Hanig will face Democrat Tess Judge. Judge is a local business owner and wife of Warren Judge who passed away just days before Boswell won the district in 2016 in what was a surprisingly close victory. Hanig is a Currituck County Commissioner. House District 7: Incumbent Democrat Bobbie Richardson is running in this significantly redrawn district that retains less than a third of the voters from Richardson’s district under the previous map. Republican Lisa Stone Barnes, a Nash County Commissioner, will face Richardson in November. House District 12: Incumbent Democrat George Graham faces Republican Chris Humphrey in this newly “unpacked” district that was ruled an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Less than half voters in the new HD12 have previously seen incumbent George Graham on their ballot in prior elections. House District 19: Incumbent Republican Ted Davis, Jr. is another deeply unpopular incumbent whose failure to convince his Senate colleagues to take meaningful action on the GenX crisis combined with greater Democratic enthusiasm due to national factors puts this New Hanover district in play. Davis faces Democrat Marcia Morgan a retired U.S. Army Colonel, educator, and former Head Start teacher. House District 20: Incumbent Republican Holly Grange is seen as a rising star in the Republican House Caucus and has been featured heavily in Republican media relations and fundraising efforts. Grange serves as Deputy Conference Leader despite being in only her first full term as a legislator after being appointed to replace Rep. Rick Catlin in 2016. Democrat Leslie Cohen will face Grange in November. House District 21: Democrat Larry Bell’s retirement leaves this seat open. Democrat Raymond Smith, Vice-Chair of the Wayne County Board of Education, is a strong candidate to face Republican Robert Freeman in November. Freeman sits on the Wayne County Planning Board. Robert Freeman House District 35: Incumbent Republican Chris Malone faced a tough primary but will go on to face a rematch with lawyer and Wake Forest Chamber of Commerce board member Terence Everitt, a Democrat. This was one of the state’s most expensive matchups in 2016 and is shaping up to be that way again. HD35 in suburban Wake County has a higher-than-average college educated population, which could lead to higher-than-normal Democratic performance if national and current state trends hold. House District 36: Incumbent Republican Nelson Dollar is the most senior House Republican member of leadership in a competitive district. Dollar serves as both “unofficial gatekeeper” and key budget writer for House Republicans. Dollar has authored every budget since Republicans took control of the legislature in 2011. He will face Wake County PTA Council President Julie von Haefen, a Democrat, who has been outspoken in organizing against the unfunded class size mandate. House District 37: This seat is open due to the retirement of one-term incumbent Linda Hunt-Williams. Democrat Sydney Batch and Republican John Adcock are both attorneys. Adcock must contend with some of the highest Democratic enthusiasm in the state AND some of the highest disapprovals of the legislature, without any of the advantages of incumbency. Batch is a founder and senior partner of the law firm Batch, Poore, & Williams, PC and has served on the board of the Wake County Women’s Center. House District 40: Incumbent Democrat Joe John faces a rematch from Republican Marilyn Avila who he defeated in one of the state’s closest races in 2016. John is a former judge who has been a key voice in fighting against Republican efforts to politicize the courts, one of N.C.’s biggest emerging issues.