WC_TR.12 Production Foregone Model September 8, 2015 Technical Reports for Deepwater Horizon Water Column Injury Assessment WC_TR.12: Evaluation of Production Foregone as the Result of Direct Kill of Fish and Invertebrate Individuals Authors: Deborah French McCay, Richard Balouskus, M. Conor McManus, Melanie Schroeder, Jill Rowe, and Erin Bohaboy Revised: Septembers, 2015 Project Number: 2011-144 RPS ASA 55 Village Square Drive, South Kingstown, Rl 02879 DWH-AR0285169 WC_TR 12 Production Foregone Model September 8, 2015 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................1 2 Introduction and Objectives ................................................................................................................4 3 Production Foregone Model ...............................................................................................................6 3.1 Description of Production Foregone Model ............................................................................ 6 3.1.1 Approach ............................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2 Model Equations ..................................................................................................................7 3.2 Mortality and Growth Models ................................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 First Year Growth and Mortality M odels .........................................................................9 3.2.1.1 Models used for Fish ....................................................................................................10 3.2.1.1.1 Fish - Life Table Equations ................................................................................. 11 3.2.1.1.2 Fish - Initial Lengths .............................................................................................13 3.2.1.2 Models used for Invertebrates .....................................................................................14 3.2.1.2.1 Invertebrate - Life Table Equations ...................................................................14 3.2.1.2.2 Penaeid Shrimp .....................................................................................................16 3.2.2 Age 1 + Mortality M odel.....................................................................................................17 3.2.2.1 Fish................................................................................................................................. 17 3.2.2.2 Invertebrates ................................................................................................................. 18 3.2.3 Mortality Variance Estimates .......................................................................................... 19 3.3 Development of Life Tables and Production Foregone Calculations .............................. 19 4 Life History Parameter Model Inputs ............................................................................................. 21 4.1 Description of Parameters ........................................................................................................21 4.1.1 Early Life History Param eters .........................................................................................21 4.1.2 Age 1+ Life History Parameters .................................................................................. 22 4.2 Life History Parameters Literature Review ..........................................................................23 4.2.1 Data Sources and Availability of Needed Information ................................................ 23 4.2.2 Development of Life History Parameters for Model Input ...........................................24 4.3 Applied Life History Parameter Model Inputs .......................................................................26 5 Model Results .................................................................................................................................... 27 5.1 Evaluation of Life Table Model ................................................................................................27 5.1.1 Models .................................................................................................................................27 5.1.1.1 Fecundity Model 1 .......................................................................................................27 5.1.1.2 Fecundity Model II ..................................................................................................... 27 5.1.1.3 Matrix Model (Lambda) ...............................................................................................28 5.1.2 Results of Life Table Tests ...............................................................................................28 RPS ASA South Kingstown, Rl, USA 2 DWH-AR0285170 WC_TR 12 Production Foregone Model September 8, 2015 5.1.3 Comparisons of Modeled Survival Rates to Empirical Data .......................................29 5.2 Production Foregone per Individual ......................................................................................29 6 References ........................................................................................................................................33 Appendix A. Production Foregone: Comparison of Natural Mortality (M)Models .......................... 37 A.1 Literature Review of Available Natural Mortality Models ........................................................ 37 A.1.1 Fish........................................................................................................................................... 37 A. 1.1.1 Fish - Egg Natural Mortality Models .............................................................................37 A. 1.1.2 Fish - Larval Natural Mortality M odels ........................................................................38 A. 1.1.3 Fish - Juvenile and Adult Natural Mortality Models .................................................. 41 A.1.2 Invertebrate - Natural Mortality Models ............................................................................ 48 A. 1.3 Catch Curve Analysis ........................................................................................................49 A. 1.3.1 General Catch Curves ................................................................................................... 49 A. 1.3.2 Larval Catch Curves .......................................................................................................50 A.2 Evaluation of Life Table and First Year Survival Models used in Production Foregone Calculations ........................................................................................................................................... 52 A.2.1 Fish - First Year Survival Model Comparisons ................................................................ 52 A.2.2 Fish - Age 1+ Mortality Models ........................................................................................... 60 A.2.3 Invertebrates ........................................................................................................................... 64 A.3 Reference ...................................................................................................................................... 67 Appendix B. Production Foregone: Life History Parameters by Taxonomic Group - Available D ata ............................................................................................................................................................ 71 Appendix C. Production Foregone: Life History Parameters by Taxonomic Group - Model Input D ata ............................................................................................................................................................ 71 Appendix D. Production Foregone: Life History Parameters by Taxonomic Group - References ....................................................................................................................................................................71 Appendix E. Summary of Model Results - Life Table and Production Foregone per Individual by Species Group ..........................................................................................................................................71 Appendix F. Model Results - Production Foregone Model Workbooks by Taxon, Season and Size ............................................................................................................................................................. 71 Appendix G. Guidance for Navigating the Production Foregone Model Workbooks ....................72 RPS ASA South Kingstown, Rl, USA III DWH-AR0285171 WC_TR 12 Production Foregone Model September 8, 2015 List of Figures Figure A-1. Comparison of first year mortality models for red snapper (spring) with hatch length of 2 mm. Each model is plotted from hatch to 365 days. (McGurk 1986 larvae-Lorenzen 1996 is indistinguishable from McGurk 1986 larvae-McGurk 1987 fish) ....................................................... 55 Figure A-2. Comparison of first year mortality models for red snapper (spring) with hatch length of 2.0 mm. Each model is plotted from hatch to 50 days. (McGurk 1986 larvae-Lorenzen 1996 is indistinguishable from McGurk 1986 larvae-McGurk 1987 fish) ......................................................