CSIS _______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775 -3270 Access Web: ww.csis.org Contact the Author: [email protected] The No rth African Military Balance: Force Developments in the Maghreb Anthony H. Cordesman Center for Strategic and International Studies With the Assistance of Khalid Al -Rodhan Working Draft: Revised March 28, 2005 Please note that this documen t is a working draft and will be revised regularly. To comment, or to provide suggestions and corrections, please e - mail the author at [email protected] . Cordesman: The Middle East Military Ba lance: Force Development in North Africa 3/28/05 Page ii Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 5 RESOURCES AND FORCE TRENDS ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 5 II. NATIONAL MILITAR Y FORCES ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 22 THE MILITARY FORCES OF MOROCCO ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 22 Moroccan Army ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 22 Moroccan Navy ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 23 Moroccan Air Force ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 25 Moroccan Paramilitary and Security Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 26 THE MILITARY FORCES OF ALGERIA ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 26 Algerian Army ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 26 Algerian Air Force ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 28 Alge rian Navy ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 29 Algerian Para military Forces and Internal Security ................................ ................................ ........................... 31 THE MILITARY FORCES OF LIBYA ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 31 Lib yan Army ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 31 Libyan Navy ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 33 Libyan Air Force ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 34 Libyan Land -Based Air D efenses ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 36 Libyan Paramilitary and Security Forces ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 37 THE MILITARY FORCES OF TUNISIA ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 37 Tunisian Army ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 37 Tunisian Navy ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 38 Tunisian Air Force ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 39 Tunisian Paramilitary Forces and Internal Security ................................ ................................ ........................... 39 III. FUTURE PATTERNS IN MILITARY DEVELOP MENT ................................ ................................ ............. 48 MAJOR TRENDS IN MAHGREB MILITARY FORCES ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 48 © Copyright 2005, A nthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Cordesman: The Middle East Military Ba lance: Force Development in North Africa 3/28/05 Page iii Table of Figures FIGURE 1.1 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 9 ALGERIAN , L IBYAN , M OROCCAN , AND TUNISIAN FORCES IN 2005 ................................ ................................ ............... 9 FIGURE 1.2 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 11 NORTH AFRICAN MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS TRANSFERS IN CONSTANT DOLLARS HAVE DROPPED TO LOW LEVELS BY GLOBAL STANDARDS ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 11 FIGURE 1.3 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 12 NORTH AFRICAN MILITARY EFFORTS DECLINED SHARPLY AS A PERCENT OF GNP, G OVERNMENT EXPENDITURES , IMPORTS , AND TOTAL POPULATION : 1985 -1999 ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 12 FIGURE 1.4 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 13 NORTH AFRICAN MILITARY EXPENDITURES BY COUNTRY : 1997 -2004 ................................ ................................ ....... 13 FIGURE 1.5 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 14 NORTH AFRICAN ARMS DELIVERIES ARE DECLINING , AND ARE A MINOR PORTION OF THE WORLD MARKET : 1985 - 1999 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 14 FIGURE 1.6 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 15 NORTH AFRICAN ARMS IMPORTS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL IMPORTS : 1985 -1999 ................................ ....................... 15 FIGURE 1.7 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 16 NORTH AFRICAN NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS AND DELIVERIES BY COUNTRY : 1988 -2003 ................................ ............ 16 FIGURE 1.8 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 17 NEW NORTH AFRICAN ARMS ORDERS BY SUPPLIER COUNTRY : 1988 -2003 ................................ ................................ 17 FIGURE 1.9 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 18 THE DECLINE IN LIBYAN SPENDING AND ARMS IMPOR TS : 1986 -1999 ................................ ................................ ......... 18 FIGURE 1.10 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .19 TRENDS IN NORTH AFRICAN MILITARY MANPOWER ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 19 FIGURE 1.11 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .20 TOTAL MANPOWER IN NORTH AFRICAN MILITARY FORCES IN 2005 ................................ ................................ ........... 20 FIGURE 1.12 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .21 TOTAL REGULAR MILITARY MANPOWER IN NORTH AFRICAN FORCES BY SERVICE IN 2005 ................................ ....... 21 FIGURE 2.1 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 40 MOROCCAN FORCE DEVELOPMENTS 1980 -2005 ................................ ................................ ...............................