<p> Time Series p.1</p><p>FORECASTING SALES OF MOSQUITO REPELLENT</p><p>#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 Original 4-Quarter 4-Quarter Seasonal Seasonal De- De- Prediction Irregular Data Moving Centered Irregular Index Seasonal- Seasonal- #7x#5/100 #1/#8 x 100 Average Moving Value (Adjusted ized ized (quarters) Average #1/#3 X median ) Data Trend 100 (#1/Index)</p><p>2001 21 73.3 28.6 30.7 22.5 93.3 42 33.75(1-4) 127.6 32.9 34.7 44.3 94.8 60 37.25(2-5) 35.50 169.01 166.0 36.1 38.6 64.1 93.6 12 38.75 30.97 33.1 36.3 42.6 14.1 85.1</p><p>2002 40.25(3-6) 44.12 79.33 102.6 35 48.00(4-7) 47.7 46.5 34.1 54 48.25 111.92 42.3 50.4 64.3 84.0 48.50(5-8) 49.00 185.71 100.8 91 49.50(6-9) 54.8 54.4 90.3 14 53.00 26.42 42.3 58.3 19.3 72.5</p><p>2003 56.5(7-10) 59.75 65.27 85.4 39 63.00(8-11) 53.2 62.3 45.7 82 66.00 124.24 64.3 66.2 84.5 97.0 69.00(9-12) 73.88 158.36 100.5 117 78.75(10-13) 70.5 70.1 116.4 38 86.75 43.80 114.8 74.1 24.5 155.1</p><p>2004 94.75(11-14) 97.12 80.31 136.4 78 99.50(12-15) 106.4 78..0 57.2 146 98.50 148.22 114.4 82.0 104.6 139.6 97.5(13-16) 94.50 143.92 95.4 136 91.50(14-17) 81.9 85.9 142.6 30 87.50 34.29 90.6 89.8 29.8 101.0 83.50(15-18) 2005 54 86.50 62.43 73.7 93.8 68.8 78.5 89.50(16-19) 91.4 114 89.25(17-20) 89.38 127.55 89.3 97.7 124.7 160 96.4 101.7 168.8 94.8 29 97.6 105.6 35.0 82.9 Medians of Column #4 Trend with winter 2001 = period one Trend of Deseasonalized Q1 72.30 linear, y = 28.6 + 3.71t, r2 = .231 y = 26.8 + 3.94t, r2 = .682 Q2 125.90 quadratic, y = 12.2 + 8.2t - .214t2, r2 = .251 Q3 163.68 exponential, In y = 3.36 + .0578t, r2 = .203 Q4 32.63 y = 28.79(1.059)t 394.51 Time Series p.2 FORECASTING VACANCIES AT CASTLE POINT YEAR Vacancies 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Forecast Error2 Forecast Error2 Forecast Error2 Forecast Error2 Forecast Error2</p><p>1996 59 54 25</p><p>1997 46 59 169 62 256 70 576</p><p>1998 64 56 50 196 71 49 59 25</p><p>1999 95 68 56 1521 57 1444 60 1225 79 256 75 400</p><p>2000 92 84 68 576 77 225 84 64 87 25 101 81</p><p>2001 95 94 84 121 88 49 90 25 96 1 98 9</p><p>2002 108 98 94 196 94 196 94 196 104 16 101 49</p><p>2003 110 104 98 144 101 81 104 36 112 4 112 4</p><p>2004 125 114 104 441 107 324 108 289 121 16 114 121</p><p>2005 121 119 114 49 117 16 120 1 129 64 126 25</p><p>Sum of Squared Errors 3048 2335 2201 712 1290</p><p>Mean Square Error 435 334 245 71 143</p><p>1. 3 point moving average to smooth 5. Linear trend with 1996 as period one Yt = 45.4 + 8.38t 2. Forecasting by M.A. (3 point) 6. Autoregression (one period)</p><p>3. Weighted (1,2,3) moving average forecast Yt = (20.1 + .850 Yt-1) 4. Exponential smoothing with  = 0.7</p>