MANAGEMENT RETIREMENT ANNUITIES SHARE VIEWS ON: HOW TO ACE A TAX-SMART TIP VODACOM YOUR FIRST FROM PSG’S TRENCOR 100 DAYS SCHALK LOUW PPC FIND US AT: ENGLISH EDITION fin24.com/finweek 16 February 2017 PLAYING DIRTY WITH CLEAN ENERGY HOW GOVERNMENT IS PUTTING JOBS AND INVESTMENT AT RISK COLLECTIVE INSIGHT INSIGHT INTO SA INVESTING FROM LEADING INFORMATION PROFESSIONALS OVERLOAD NAVIGATING YOUR WAY THROUGH THE NOISE Inside 18 Coming to grips with big data 20 What is the big deal about big data? 22 Age of automation 24 R26.23 (excl. VAT) Welcome to the Second Information Age 26 Algorithms versus human judgment – whom do we trust? 28 Information deluge the new normal 31 Big data in investment finance: A cautionary comment 33 Beware the noise R29.90 (incl. VAT) Other countries: SA: DON’T LET BIG DATA BAFFLE YOU contents Opinion 4 Paradiplomacy and paranoia from the editor The week in brief 6 News in numbers 8 Cash for your car JANA MARAIS Marketplace 9 Fund Focus: Rewarding long-term investors should one invest in the age of Trump? US hedge fund 10 House View: Tax-free portfolio, DRDGold nager Seth A. Klarman’s views on this issue have set Wall 11 Killer Trade: Is Trencor headed for calmer waters? eet abuzz afterr The New York Times published extracts 12 Simon Says: Kumba Iron Ore, Vodacom, Dawn, Hudaco of his January letter to investors. In the letter, Klarman Industries, PPC h warned about the “perilously high valuations” of the equity market, saying 13 Invest DIY: The ins and outs of doubling up on shares investors were discounting the major risks brought by US President Donald 14 Investment: Best-kept secret: Direct shares in your Trump’s proposed policies. retirement annuity Klarman runs Baupost Group, a hedge fund based in Boston, which 15 Technical Study: Lonmin is rapidly burning cash manages about $30bn. He is highly regarded in the investment world and 16 Directors & Dividends: Dealings and payouts has an impressive track record: he’s lost money in only three of the past 34 years, according to The New York Times. At the moment, about 30% of his Collective Insight fund’s money sits in cash, it reported. 17 Information Overload: Navigating your way through Looking at equity markets around the world, Klarman’s view seems to be the noise a dissenting one – global equity markets continued to rally in January on the 18 Introduction: Coming to grips with big data expectation that Trump’s policies will bring about faster economic growth, 20 Insurance: What is the big deal about big data? COLLECTIVE lower taxes and deregulation in the US. The JSE, for example, returned INSIGHT 22 Decision-making: Age of automation INFORMATION 4.3% in January – more than in the entire 2016 – mainly thanks to strong OVERLOAD Welcome to the Second Information Age NAVIGATING YOUR WAY 24 Analysis: THROUGH THE NOISE Inside resource and industrial stocks. The MSCI All Countries World Index returned 26 Facing the Unknown: Algorithms versus human judgment 2.7% in US dollar-terms in January, following a 2% gain in December. – whom do we trust? Klarman, however, believes Trump is very bad news for investors, who 28 Active Management: Information deluge the new normal have been “mostly ignoring the risks from America-first protectionism and 31 Investment Strategies: Big data in investment finance: A the erection of new trade barriers”, he said, also cautioning against Trump’s cautionary comment proposed tax cuts. “The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high 33 Conclusion: Beware the noise volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty. Not only is Trump shockingly unpredictable, he’s apparently deliberately so; he Cover says it’s part of his plan,” Klarman wrote. 34 Energy: Government plays dirty with renewables Old Mutual Multi-Managers’ Dave Mohr and Izak Odendaal echoed similar sentiments in a recent investment note, saying while the outlook for the US In Depth economy remains positive, policy uncertainty is high. “The modern era has 38 Commodities: Mining on the up never before experienced such unpredictability from the Oval Office,” they said. If things go wrong, Klarman believes it could spell the start of the On the money decline of the dollar as the dominant global currency, a rapid rise in interest 40 Spotlight: Shwe’s fashion revolution rates and inflation, and global malaise. 42 Insurance: Keep those back-to-varsity blues at bay Oxford Economics also warned that 2017 may be a tougher year than 43 Technology: Amazon’s e-book policy puts the squeeze people expect, with global spending power expected to grow by 2.2%, the on publishers weakest rate in eight years. Consumers in many countries will face higher 44 Management: How to ace your first 100 days interest rates and fuel costs and weak wage growth. Their advice? Keep 45 Crossword and quiz ■ those belts tightened. 46 Piker EDITORIAL & SALES ENQUIRIES Editor Jana Marais Deputy Editor Anneli Groenewald Journalists and Contributors Simon Brown, Dan SUBSCRIBERS Fax SHOPS 087-740-1019 0864-575-918 0861-888-989 diBartolomeo, Peter Fabricius, Moxima Gama, Lloyd Gedye, Delphine Govender, Natalie Greve, Jana Jacobs, Niel [email protected] [email protected] Joubert, Charlie Mathews, David McKay, Neesa Moodley, Leevania Naicker, Daniel Polakow, Jon Pienaar, Bradley Preston, Ainsley To, Tony van Niekerk, Hannes Viljoen, Helena Wasserman Sub-Editors Stefanie Muller, Katrien Smit Share your thoughts with us on: Office Manager Thato Marolen Layout Artists Beku Mbotoli, Tshebetso Ditabo, Zandri van Zyl Advertising @finweek finweek finweekmagazine manager Paul Goddard [email protected] Sales Executive Tanya Finch [email protected] Publisher Sandra Ladas [email protected] General Manager Dev Naidoo Production Angela Silver FINWEEK SUBSCRIBES TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS CODE WHICH COMMITS US TO JOURNALISM THAT IS TRUE, ACCURATE, FAIR AND BALANCED. 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Published on behalf of Media24 by New Media Publishing (PTY) Ltd Johannesburg Office: Ground floor, Media Park, 69 Kingsway Avenue, Auckland Park, 2092 Postal Address: PO Box 784698, Sandton, Johannesburg, 2146 Tel: +27 (0)11 713 9601 Head Office: New Media House, 19 Bree Street, Cape Town, 8001 Postal Address: PO Box 440, Green Point, Cape Town, 8051 Tel: +27 (0)21 417 1111 Fax: +27 (0)21 417 1112 Email: [email protected] Executive Directors Group Commercial Director: John Psillos Managing Director: Bridget McCarney Non Executive Director: Irna van Zyl Printed by Paarlmedia and Distributed by On The Dot Website: http://www.fin24.com/finweek Overseas Subscribers: +27 21 405 1905/7 opinion By Peter Fabricius INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Paradiplomacy and paranoia Leaders of the DA recently met with foreign dignitaries abroad. The ANC’s overreaction to these events reveals confusion in government’s foreign policy – and considerable insecurity on the part of the ANC. uring the past few weeks, South Africa has Perhaps what has changed is that the ANC has grown witnessed two notable examples of what increasingly insecure as its power erodes and therefore has foreign-policy pundits call “paradiplomacy” – become more jealous of its prerogatives over foreign policy. the conduct of foreign relations by entities in a Msimanga’s visit to Taiwan no doubt rubbed salt in the d country other than the national government. wounds of its loss of the capital city in last August’s local First the DA’s Tshwane mayor Solly Msimanga visited government elections. Taiwan to meet his counterpart in the capital Taipei, and a few Though Maimane and Msimanga firmly denied they were weeks later DA party leader Mmusi Maimane travelled to Israel conducting separate DA foreign policy, would it have been to meet the country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. legitimate if they had been? The ANC exploded. Msimanga was accused of Solly Msimanga Leon certainly thinks so. “SA’s foreign policy is incoherent, undermining the ANC’s One China policy – i.e. the policy Mayor of Tshwane haphazardly implemented and its first principles are often that Taiwan is a “renegade province”, not a separate country. honoured only in the breach. Maimane was blasted for imperilling the ANC government’s “It is completely appropriate for the official opposition to supposed policy of isolating Israel. Some within the ruling party pursue foreign policy objectives consonant with its own values, even cried treason. Msimanga hastened to explain that he had especially as the party now controls four major cities and one not been conducting alternative foreign policy but was merely province. The ‘treason charge’ is utterly spurious…” trying to boost investments in his city. Maimane explained that Foreign policy pundits are not quite as unequivocal. he had met Netanyahu only to help advance the two-state Brazilian foreign policy academic Carlos Milani has noted solution to the Middle East crisis – which the ANC government in an article for the SA Institute of International Affairs also officially endorses. He said he had also hoped to meet (SAIIA) that, globally, diplomacy is becoming increasingly Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, but this decentralised, with sub-national entities – whether lower had not come off. levels of government or other interests, such as businesses – This brouhaha exposed confusion in the ANC conducting more of their own foreign relations. government’s policies. When asked how Maimane had violated Milani believes that ultimately such diplomacy should be government policy, official spokespeople could only cite guided by the foreign policy set by the national government.