<p> Sea Level Rise Threatens Nile Delta Ecosystems and Livelihoods Submitted by Crystal Davis on Mon, 2007-08-27 18:37.</p><p>The Nile Delta is one of the most heavily populated and intensely cultivated areas on earth. Despite covering only 2.5 percent of Egypt's total land area, the Nile Delta harbors over one-third of the national population and nearly half of all crops. Standing less than two meters above sea level, however, it is also extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Various United Nations and World Bank studies have begun modeling potential consequences of sea level rise on Egyptian livelihoods and the economy, reinforcing the importance of adaptation as a vital strategy for those countries standing to suffer most from global warming.</p><p>Predicting Sea Level Rise</p><p>The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), reflecting the views of scientists from over 130 countries, confirmed that global sea level has already been rising at an average rate of 1.7 mm per year during the 20th century. With continued growth in global greenhouse gas emissions and associated warming, sea level could rise by another one to three meters this century. Most of this anticipated increase is attributable to glacier melt and thermal expansion of oceans. The additional possibility of warmer temperatures unexpectedly breaking up the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, still widely debated among climate scientists, could lead to a devastating five-meter increase.</p><p>Past, Present and Predicted Sea Level Trends</p><p>Source: IPCC, 2007.</p><p>The Nile Delta Study With just a one-meter rise in the Mediterranean Sea, the Nile Delta stands to suffer tremendously. Rising seas would destroy parts of the protective offshore sand belt, which has already been weakened by reduced sediment flows resulting from the construction of the Aswan Dam in 1970. Without this sand belt, water quality in coastal freshwater lagoons will be altered (threatening one-third of Egypt's fisheries), groundwater will be salinated, and recreational tourism and beach facilities will be inundated. Furthermore, a predicted 6.1 million people will be displaced and 4,500 square kilometers of cropland will be lost. Estimated impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeds six percent for a one-meter rise and 16 percent for five-meters (World Bank, 2007). Vulnerability and Adaptation For countries such as Egypt, developing adaptation strategies to deal with impending climate change will be vital. In the coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, for example, authorities are spending US$300 million to construct concrete sea walls to protect beaches from rising seas. Egypt's ministry of environmental affairs is also preparing a "national strategy study" on adaptation, including a vulnerability index to pinpoint the most endangered regions.</p><p>Source: Davis, Crystal. "Sea Level Rise Threatens Nile Delta Ecosystems and Livelihoods." WRI. 27 August 2007. 20 Aug 2008 <http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/235>.</p>