State Steering in Polycentric Governance Systems: Climate Policy Integration in Ontario and California’s Transportation Sectors Colleen Kaiser A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario March 2020 © Colleen Kaiser 2020 Abstract The post-Kyoto era of climate governance has witnessed a dramatic increase in the number and diversity of actors and organizations, resulting in a complex institutional regime that displays the essential features of polycentric governance (Keohane and Victor 2011; Abbott 2012; 2018). The complexity of polycentric climate governance systems makes them hard to describe and compare. That being said, they are also everywhere (Harford 2013). As our current reality, polycentric climate governance systems require research attention even though their ‘messy’ nature presents unique research challenges. This research furthers work by Elinor Ostrom and others on operationalizing polycentric climate governance, given the complexity and ‘institutional void’ associated with polycentric governance systems. In particular, this research argues that the state is a unique actor within polycentric climate governance systems, and serves a critical and exclusive function in crafting and enforcing overarching rules within which all other actors operate. A key focus in this research is climate policy integration and its drivers that are comparatively analyzed for the climate-transport governance regimes of the two case studies underpinning this research: Ontario, Canada and California, U.S.A. Additionally, the research introduces a novel approach for evaluating the degree of polycentricity in each case’s climate governance system. Finally, the research evaluates the degree to which overarching rules enhance these systems in relation to varying contexts. Ultimately, a polycentric approach to climate change governance is found to be a best fit strategy for pursuing low-carbon transitions. This is especially the case in contexts characterized by separation of powers type governance system, where there are especially high degrees of regulatory capacity, and a consistent and robust social consensus supporting climate change action. In particular, the ability of these systems to maintain a low- carbon governance orientation in the face of technological and political disruption, and also promote innovation, coalition and capacity building, makes them well-suited to managing the challenges inherent to steering low-carbon transitions. Governments should recognize the complexity of current climate change governance systems, understand their unique roles within these systems, and work purposefully to develop and implement overarching rules leverage the benefits of these systems and mitigate their inefficiencies. ii Aknowledgements Thank you to my partner, Lyja, my friends, family and committee members for all your support. Special thanks to Dr. Mark Winfield for his consistent encouragement and thoughtful guidance. iii Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ii Aknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. viii Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Climate Change and Polycentric Governance Systems ..........................................................1 Logic of Inquiry and Theoretical Context: ..............................................................................3 Relation and Advancements in the Field: State Steering in Polycentric Governance Systems ........................................................................................................................................5 Evaluating overarching rules: Environment/Climate Policy integration (EPI/CPI) ............... 7 Overview of this Dissertation: ...................................................................................................8 Why transportation? ................................................................................................................ 9 Why Ontario and California? ................................................................................................ 10 Brief Introduction to the Case: Ontario, Canada .................................................................. 11 Brief Introduction to the Case: California, U.S.A. ............................................................... 15 Outline of the Dissertation .................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2: Research Design and Methodology ........................................................................ 22 Strategies of Inquiry and Framework for Analysis: .............................................................22 Analysis: Key Explanatory Variables Influencing CPI Efforts in Each Case: ..................24 Problem characteristics and the transaction costs of change ................................................ 25 Institutional context: ............................................................................................................. 26 Structure of the regional economy ........................................................................................ 30 Framing and high-level political commitment ...................................................................... 31 Public opinion, regional narratives and social consensus ..................................................... 34 Relationships between variables ........................................................................................... 35 Evaluating the Extent of CPI in Each Jurisdiction’s Road Passenger Transportation Sector: .......................................................................................................................................35 Measuring Degrees of Polycentricity and Evaluating Operationalization via Overarching Rules ..........................................................................................................................................36 Delineating degrees of polycentricity in each climate change governance regime .............. 36 Evaluating overarching rules in operationalizing a polycentric approach to climate change governance ............................................................................................................................ 40 Supporting Method: Primary Qualitative Analysis .............................................................42 Chapter 3: The Problem of Global Climate Change: Collective Action Theory and Understanding the Failure to Mitigate Global Climate Change ............................................ 44 Collective Action Dilemmas: Key Concepts and the Atmosphere as the Global Commons ....................................................................................................................................................44 iv Collective action theory: When will individuals cooperate? ................................................ 45 A game theoretic approach to collective action dilemmas ................................................... 48 Chapter 4: The Rise of Networked Governance: Operationalizing a Polycentric Approach to Combating Global Climate Change Through State Steering ............................................. 55 The Evolution in Modes of Governance: Polycentric Governance Systems and the Rise of Networked Governance ...........................................................................................................55 Hierarchy/bureaucracy-based models ................................................................................... 56 New public management/market-based models ................................................................... 57 New governance/network-centered model ........................................................................... 58 Polycentric Governance Systems: An Overview ...................................................................60 Advantages and disadvantages of polycentric governance systems for the provision of ecosystem services ................................................................................................................ 61 A polycentric approach to climate change ............................................................................ 65 Climate/Environmental Policy Integration: Introduction to the Evaluation Frame .........67 Climate policy integration (CPI) ........................................................................................... 70 Evidence of underperformance with EPI/CPI ....................................................................... 73 CPI in the Road Passenger Transportation Sector ...............................................................73