Distr. GENERAL LC/G.2378(SES.32/14) 4 June 2008 ENGLISH ORIGINAL: SPANISH DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON DEVELOPMENT IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 2008-271 This document was prepared under the supervision and coordination of Dirk Jaspers-Faijer, Director of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre (CELADE) - Population Division of ECLAC. Susana Schkolnik was in charge of drafting the study and worked in collaboration with Paulo Saad and Tim Miller. Also contributing to this document were Sandra Huenchuan, Ciro Martínez, Daniela González, Juan Chackiel, Guiomar Bay and Mauricio Holz. The support received from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in the preparation of this document is gratefully acknowledged. iii CONTENTS Page Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter I Trends in population dynamics ...................................................................................................... 3 A. Stages of demographic transition.......................................................................................... 3 1. Very advanced transition............................................................................................. 6 2. Advanced transition.................................................................................................... 6 3. Full transition.............................................................................................................. 7 4. Moderate transition..................................................................................................... 7 B. Factors affecting population growth or decline .................................................................... 8 1. Mortality patterns........................................................................................................ 8 2. Fertility patterns.......................................................................................................... 11 3. International migration................................................................................................ 14 4. Growth potential in the age structure .......................................................................... 15 C. Some consequences of demographic trends on the structure and size of the population in Latin America and the Caribbean ............................................................. 16 Chapter II Demographic scenarios for various stages of transition: a prospective vision up to 2100 ........ 21 A. Population growth at various points of fertility decline........................................................ 22 B. Trends in the main age groups.............................................................................................. 25 C. Ageing index and median age............................................................................................... 31 D. Dependency ratio and the demographic dividend................................................................. 34 1. Dependency ratio ........................................................................................................ 34 2. The demographic dividend.......................................................................................... 35 3. Alternative definitions of the dependency ratio .......................................................... 41 Chapter III The economic impact of the demographic dividend on social sectors......................................... 47 A. The general economic impact of the demographic dividend ................................................ 47 1. Economic dependency in early and later life .............................................................. 48 2. The economic magnitude of the demographic dividend ............................................. 50 B. The impact of the demographic dividend on three key support system................................ 56 1. The impact of changing age structure on public education......................................... 57 2. The impact of changing age structure on public pensions .......................................... 62 3. The impact of changing age structure on health care.................................................. 66 Chapter IV The background to demographic change....................................................................................... 73 A. Rights, poverty and inequity................................................................................................. 73 B. Vulnerable groups and changes in the family....................................................................... 77 1. Poverty and older persons ........................................................................................... 78 2. Poverty and gender...................................................................................................... 81 3. Poverty and indigenous peoples.................................................................................. 84 4. The family environment and changes in the role of women ....................................... 86 iv Page Chapter V Summary remarks ........................................................................................................................... 91 A. Categorization of countries by stage of demographic transition........................................... 91 B. Factors affecting population growth ..................................................................................... 92 C. The three main aspects of demographic change: ageing, the demographic dividend and changes in the burden on social sectors .......................................................... 93 1. Population ageing........................................................................................................ 93 2. The demographic dependency ratio and the demographic dividend........................... 94 3. Changes in burden on social sectors ........................................................................... 95 D. The background to demographic changes............................................................................. 97 1. Older persons.............................................................................................................. 98 2. Gender relations.......................................................................................................... 99 3. Indigenous peoples...................................................................................................... 100 4. Changes in the family environment and the role of women........................................ 101 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................... 103 Tables, figures and boxes Table I.1 Latin America and the Caribbean: countries according to total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth and rates of natural increase, 2005-2010............................ 4 Table I.2 Latin America and the Caribbean: life expectancy at birth by sex and infant mortality rate, 1950-2025 .............................................................................. 9 Table I.3 Latin America and the Caribbean: total fertility rate and births, 1950-2050 ................................................................................................................ 11 Table I.4 Latin America and the Caribbean: fertility rates by age of women, total fertility rate, percentage reduction and relative distribution, 1950-1955 to 2010-2015.......................................................................................... 13 Table I.5 Latin America and the Caribbean: total population and population by age groups, 1950, 2005 and 2050 ....................................................................... 16 Table II.1 Latin America and the Caribbean: population growth different periods and at various stages of demographic transition ...................................................... 24 Table II.2 Latin America and the Caribbean: population structure by countries, age groups and stages of demographic transition, 2005, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100............................................................................ 27 Table II.3 Latin America and the Caribbean: ageing index by stage of demographic transition, 1980, 2005, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100................................................. 32 Table II.4 Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): aspects of dependency ratio trends........................................................................................... 39 Table II.5 Latin America: characteristics of the dependency ratio according to different definitions.................................................................................................. 42 Table II.6 Latin America (selected countries): number of economically inactive people for every 100 economically active people, 1990-2050 ................................ 44 v Page Table IV.1 Latin America and the Caribbean: people living in poverty, by stage in the demographic transition, 1990 and 2006......................................................... 76 Table IV.2 Latin America and the Caribbean (15 countries): by incidence of poverty among older persons, about 2000 ............................................................... 78 Table IV.3 Latin America and the Caribbean (16 countries): by social security coverage, about 2000..............................................................................................