<p> EMERGING LANDSCAPES, EVOLVING PRIORITIES: ASSESSING THE INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN LAND COVER CHANGE AND THE MANAGEMENT OF INTRODUCED SPECIES AND HABITATS ON THE TURNER RANCHES IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO</p><p>A proposal to the College of Arts & Sciences University of New Mexico 14 May 2012</p><p>PI: K. Maria D. Lane, Ph.D. Department of Geography & Environmental Studies University of New Mexico</p><p>Co-PI: Christopher D. Lippitt, Ph.D. Department of Geography San Diego State University</p><p>Budget Overview Personnel $8,290.88 Travel $1,871.96 Total* $10,000.00</p><p>*Note: Amount in excess of maximum award will be requested as a supplement from departmental funds or will be provided through the PI’s professional travel account. Budget Explanation</p><p>With this proposal, we are seeking a maximum award of $10,000. This award will be used to fund a graduate research assistant and to support research travel from UNM to the Ladder and Armendaris Ranches. Projected expenses total $10,162.84. The small amount exceeding the maximum award will be requested as a supplement from PI’s departmental funds or will be provided through the PI’s professional travel account.</p><p>Personnel: Graduate Research Assistant ($8,290.88) A graduate research assistant will be hired to work under the direct supervision of Dr. Christopher Lippitt to conduct the following parts of the research: identification and processing of data sources, remote sensing analysis, creation of a land cover map. The appointment will be made for 10 hours/week in both fall 2012 and spring 2013, with a monthly stipend of $737.50. (This is one-half of the standard rate paid for 20-hour/week TA and RA appointments in the Department of Geography). This appointment will include the standard fringe rates and health insurance, as shown. </p><p>Research Assistant, 8/2012-5/2013 $6,637.50 Stipend = $737.50/month for 9 months Fringe on RA Salary (1%) $66.38 Health insurance $1,587 $675 for Fall 2012 and $912 for Spring/Summer 2013 TOTAL $8,290.88</p><p>Travel: In-State Travel ($1,871.96) Project staff will travel to the ranches to meet with and interview ranch managers and biologists, both before after the creation of a land cover map. Each visit will require a two-day trip, with one day spent at the Ladder Ranch and one day spent at the Armendaris Ranch. Two nights of lodging will be required in Truth or Consequences, NM. Rates for lodging, M&IE, and mileage comply with the UNM Business Policies and Procedures Manual and federal GSA rates.</p><p>August 2012 – 2 days, 2 nights, 3 personnel Purpose: visual assessment of land cover, interviews with ranch managers and biologists Attendees: Maria Lane, Chris Lippitt, Student RA Lodging: 3 rooms, 2 nights each @ $77 = $462 M&IE: 2 days x 3 participants @ $46/person/day = $276 Mileage: 298 miles roundtrip x $0.51/mile = $151.98 May 2013 – 2 days, 2 nights, 4 personnel Purpose: present and review land cover map with ranch managers, evaluate potential future projects, interview ranch managers and biologists about land cover mapping results Attendees: Maria Lane, Chris Lippitt, Caitlin Lippitt, Chris Duvall Lodging: 3 rooms, 2 nights each @ $77 = $462 M&IE: 2 days x 4 participants @ $46/person/day = $368 Mileage: 298 miles roundtrip x $0.51/mile = $151.98</p><p>22 TOTAL $1,871.96Research Plan</p><p>Abstract The goal of the proposed research is to link spatially explicit data on land cover patterns to a historical and perceptual timeline of land management practices on the Ladder and Armendaris Ranches in southern New Mexico. Data gathered through spatial-scientific and social-scientific methods will be quantitatively integrated to identify key historical-ecological relationships between species introductions, habitat management decisions, and past land cover change within the two ranches’ boundaries. By assembling these baseline data for the Turner Ranches, this preliminary project will lay the foundation for a larger, longer-term research program that examines the Turner Ranches within a spatially-linked corridor of protected public lands stretching along New Mexico’s southern Rio Grande Valley. Future investigations will focus on key relationships identified in this initial study, integrating more extensive qualitative data with finer-grained spatial analysis in order to (1) determine whether and to what extent the unique private ownership status of the large Turner landholdings has impacted its conservation potential compared to nearby publicly- held protected tracts, and (2) predict potential vegetative and land cover changes throughout the corridor under various scenarios for environmental (climate) and economic change. A major thrust of the proposed project is to develop robust methods for analyzing coupled human-environment systems that can then be productively applied to both publicly- and privately-held conservation lands, taking into account political, legal, and economic structures that constrain and/or enable various forms of land management and environmental change.</p><p>Understanding Landscape Change in Coupled Human-Environment Systems Research agendas in the fields of Geography and Sustainability Science have been dominated recently by attempts to understand landscape change at a variety of spatial scales. Work in land- change science (LCS) has typically focused on the structural and functional aspects of environmental change, using GIS and Remote Sensing technology to quantify and assess the consequences of changing land uses and land covers, often at broad international or global scales (Turner et al. 2008). Work in political ecology (PE), on the other hand, has been more attuned to the political-economic and social causes of ecological change, focusing more typically on qualitative investigation of individual land managers or organizational structures within sub- national or local contexts. (e.g. Zimmerer and Bassett 2003, Liverman 2004). Although these two research strands have often struggled to find common theoretical and methodological ground, recent calls for their integration (especially Turner and Robbins 2008) have gained traction by emphasizing the importance of understanding both causes and consequences of ecosystem vulnerability to biophysical (e.g. climate) change as well as to political-economic and social change. This most recent work has begun to integrate diverse methodologies to understand coupled human-environment systems in more complex ways. Fine- grained investigations of explanatory factors in the political and social realms, for example, have been successfully quantified to allow their incorporation into regression analytics that are commonly used in LCS (e.g. Aldrich et al. 2012, Brenner 2011). The proposed project aims to contribute to this integrated and interdisciplinary scholarship by developing new methods for understanding key relationships between protected areas’ management practices and environmental change within their boundaries. The spatial data collected in this study will be generated through remote sensing, which provides a uniquely synoptic sample and historical record of land cover and habitat status </p><p>3 (Townshend et al. 1991). This unique historical record has permitted the analysis of changes in land cover and use over time (e.g., Pontius et al. 2008, Stow et al. in press, Coulter et al. 2011) and provided calibration for inference into likely land cover conditions in the future (Franklin 1995). United States Geological Survey (USGS) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) operated sensor programs such as Landsat and MODIS are explicitly designed and operated to provide a continuous and comparable record of land cover and use over time. Since the inception of the Landsat program in 1972, the sensor has provided a record of land surface status at approximately 60 meter, and later 30 and 15 meter, ground sampling distances and has thus permitted quantitative estimates of land cover type at those spatial resolutions (Blaschke et al. 2001). Linear spectral unmixing (SMA), a technique borrowed from chemistry, has been shown to reliably permit the estimation of fractional land cover estimates within a pixel (i.e., sample) and thus permit the estimation of land cover as a proportion of each pixel (Small et al. 2001). SMA allows remote sensing to break from the ontology of land cover as discrete units (i.e., pixels) with a single membership category and to instead adopt the more biologically and ecologically appropriate ontology of land cover as a continuously varying property at the course spatial scales observed by LandSat (Strahler et al. 1986). Fractional land cover estimates produced through SMA have been show to provide reliable estimates of sub-pixel land cover proportion and improved estimates of land cover change when compared to pixel based approaches (e.g., Roberts et al. 1998, Rogan et al. 2002, Powell et al. 2007). The accurate characterization of land cover and/or use has been shown to be critical to the reliable inference of land cover and/or use over space and time (Pontius 2000, Pontius and Lippitt 2006, Pontius et al. 2008). The research described in this proposal is therefore intended not only to provide a record of land cover status to assess the impact of various management practices through time, but also to permit the modeling of land cover under various climatic conditions and management practices in the future. This record of land cover status will be reviewed with ranch managers and biologists at the Turner Ranches, as a means of generating and testing new methods that jointly analyze management practice and paradigms alongside the realities of environmental change.</p><p>Turner Ranches in Southern New Mexico: A Unique Study Area The Turner Ranches of southern New Mexico are unique in several ways, most notably as very large private landholdings that are managed for multiple uses typically associated with similarly- sized public protected lands. The Ladder and Armendaris ranches are both managed for profit, with bison production and ecotourism/hunting reportedly generating primary receipts, but the ranches also host the Turner Endangered Species Fund with its variety of conservation-oriented species reintroduction efforts (Miller et al. 2007, List et al. 2007, Truett 2010). This unique combination of private ownership, for-profit status, and conservation-oriented species management within a single property boundary raises considerable political-ecological interest in terms of the structural, political, and economic constraints on habitat management within the ranches. In addition, the ranches’ spatial location within a quasi-corridor of protected lands managed by public agencies raises the possibility for examining differential land cover impacts on the basis of structural influences or managerial decisions. From Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge to Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge and the Jornada Experimental Range, the Turner Ranches are surrounded by public lands that operate under different management paradigms, economic constraints, and governance structures. This project intends to develop 44 methods for understanding the relationships between management practice and environmental change on the most politically complicated of these landholdings, with broader intentions of using these methods to eventually understand past and present change throughout the corridor. The Ladder and Armedaris Ranches (and, indeed, the entire corridor of interest) are primarily dominated by desert ecosystems, occupying the north-western perimeter of the Chihuahuan desert. Like much of the Chihuahuan desert, the land cover is dominated by desert grassland and shrubland, with smaller portions of pinyon juniper woodland. Higher elevation areas of both ranches contain ponderosa pine and mixed coniferous forest. The predicted transition of much of the southwestern United States to warmer drier climate (Seager et al. 2007) mean that many of these higher elevation areas, which are typically characterized by a cool mesic climate, will likely transition to become more like their lower elevation counterparts. The ongoing climatic changes in the desert southwest (Mote et al. 2005) suggest that these predictions are coming to fruition and will likely require adaptations in management strategy with respect to both commercial, introduced, and protected species at the ranches in the southwest at large. </p><p>Workplan and Timeline The primary work to be completed with the proposed budget involves creation of a land cover map and compilation of qualitative interview data from ranch managers and biological personnel working within the Ladder and Armendaris Ranches.</p><p>Phase 1: August 2012 The research team will visit both ranches to visually assess land cover conditions, gather information from Turner Endangered Species Fund personnel about species introduction operations, and interview ranch managers about their historical and current land management approaches. This qualitative data collection will focus on generating narrative accounts of biologists’ and ranch managers’ activities, constraints, and perceptions of the ways their activities impact vegetative patterns and land cover changes. Qualitative data will be gathered via open-ended interviews with individual personnel.</p><p>Phase 2: August 2012 – May 2013 Landcover mapping will be conducted primarily by a supervised graduate research assistant, who will gather data and create a land cover map of both ranches using freely available remotely sense data. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) image data will be acquired from the Environmental Resources and Observation Center (EROS) for time periods prior to and following the introduction of managed species. To better understand the impact the of introduced species and new land management practices, the proportion of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, bare soil, and shadow will be estimated from the time series of moderate resolution remote sensing samples. Specifically, Linear spectral unmixing (Small 2001, Rogan et al. 2002) will be used to estimate the relative fraction of the above described endmembers and subsequently provide a synoptic record of bio-physically interpretable estimates of land cover and habitat status over time. The estimation of subpixel land cover status will require: 1) the identification and evaluation of appropriate image data from the EROS data center, 2) geometric and radiometric normalization of image data to permit comparable estimates of land cover fractions over time (Aplin 2006), 3) the collection and verification of ground reference data to support model calibration and validation, and 4) estimation of fractional land cover by linear spectral unmixing.</p><p>5 Phase 3: May 2013 To finalize the proposed project, the research team will visit both ranches to present the new land cover map and to interview ranch managers and biological personnel about how the remotely sensed map product influences their initial perceptions of land cover change. In addition, this followup visit will be used to evaluate the potential for future projects that would involve a larger interdisciplinary team of UNM faculty and students in the analysis of land management decision- making and environmental change on protected lands in southern New Mexico.</p><p>Results and Significance The first objective of this project is to produce a detailed land cover map for both the Ladder and Armendaris Ranches. The resultant time series of fractional land cover estimates will permit: correlation of land cover changes to specific changes in management practice or species introductions, targeting of geographic areas for finer scale analysis, modeling of species distribution within the ranches, and estimation of climate change impacts under various management regimes. Produced maps will also be provided to ranch managers and are expected to aid in the interactive identification future research priorities and to provide an invaluable data set for both field and laboratory experiments with students. Finally, the inference of future land cover based on continuous fractional estimates of land cover is a novel methodological approach that products of the proposed research are intended to support. Second, this project will produce a detailed study of the ways managers and biological personnel on the Turner Ranches perceive the historical and current land-cover impacts of their species introduction and management initiatives. By generating a perceptual management- practice timeline that can be correlated to the spatial data of the land cover map, the study will identify key relationships between management practices and ecological changes. The end goal of these two research products is to develop a robust methodology that can be used to examine causes and consequences of ecological change throughout the Turner Ranches and surrounding protected lands. By analyzing land cover change and its relationship to management approaches on the Turner Ranches, we hope to lay the foundation for future scholarship that can analyze potential effects of biophysical/economic change on ecologically- similar sites, taking into account different management histories and conservation priorities.</p><p>Project Responsibilities Remote Sensing, Land Cover Mapping, and Vegetative Change Analysis Dr. C.D. Lippitt will be primarily responsible for the land cover mapping effort. He will select and train a qualified Research Assistant and will then supervise the collection of remote sensing data, image processing and the collection of field of reference data. Dr. Duvall will serve as a subject area adviser for the biogeographical patterns associated with animal habitats in arid landscapes. C.L. Lippitt will serve as a subject area adviser for remote sensing in arid landscapes at various spatial scales. </p><p>Analysis of Historical and Modern Landscape Management Practices Dr. Lane will be primarily responsible for collecting historical and qualitative data related to the management perspectives and strategies use to guide species introductions at the Turner Ranches. She will guide the overall research objectives linking the land cover mapping to the management decisions, working in concert with Dr. C.D. Lippitt to develop and test various methodological options that link the qualitative and spatial data sets.</p><p>66 Long-term Potential This proposal seeks to establish baseline data on landscape scale processes and management regimes at Ladder and Armendaris ranches to lay the foundation for a larger, longer-term research program that examines the Turner Ranches within a spatially-linked corridor of protected public lands stretching along New Mexico’s southern Rio Grande Valley. Future investigations will focus on key relationships identified in this initial study, integrating more extensive qualitative data with finer-grained spatial analysis in order to (1) determine whether and to what extent the unique private ownership status of the large Turner landholdings has impacted its conservation potential compared to nearby publicly-held protected tracts, and (2) predict potential vegetative and land cover changes throughout the corridor under various scenarios for environmental (climate) and economic change. A major thrust of the proposed project is to develop robust methods for analyzing coupled human-environment systems that can then be productively applied to both publicly- and privately-held conservation lands, taking into account political, legal, and economic structures that constrain and/or enable various forms of land management and environmental change. In follow-on research, we seek to establish an interdisciplinary long term research program analyzing the coupled human-environment system of the Southern Rio Grande Valley. Through a combination of qualitative documentation of management regimes and quantitative analysis of the interaction between landscape change processes and changes in management practice, a long term education and research program focusing on human-environment interaction under various management practices will be established. Specifically, we will seek funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to establish an REU (Research Experience for Undergraduates) Site based at the Turner Ranches. The REU site proposal will provide for the involvement of faculty and undergraduate students in interdisciplinary mixed methods research focused on human-environment relations. We would work to include faculty and students from across campus in the REU site proposal (including from Earth & Planetary Sciences, Biology, History, and potentially Community and Regional Planning), emphasizing to NSF that the proposed REU site would contribute significantly to the training of underrepresented groups in both STEM disciplines and social sciences. Additional opportunities for research support include NSF Social, Economic, and Behavioral Science and GeoSciences programs, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the State of New Mexico. The proposed research program leverages NASA earth observation assets to understand the the effect of political, legal, and economic structures that constrain and/or enable various forms of land management and environmental change in the Southern Rio Grande Valley; research which has direct implications for land management in the state of New Mexico, demonstrates the utility of NASA assets for understanding complex coupled human-environment systems, and represents an ideal environment for educating future scientists in the type of integrated interdisciplinary approaches required to understand the complexities of interaction between humans and their environment. </p><p>7 Finally, the Turner Endangered Species Fund, a non-profit foundation that manages species introductions at Turner Ranches and seeks to exploit the unique environment and status of the ranches to further scientific understanding, will benefit directly from the proposed research and represents a potential future funding source and collaborator.Biographical Information K. Maria D. Lane, PI Dr. Lane has expertise in the historical geography of resource management in arid landscapes, with a particular focus on twentieth-century water management in the American Southwest. She has obtained grants from numerous agencies, most recently as the PI on a multi-year project funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), with support from its programs in both Science, Technology and Society as well as Geography and Spatial Sciences. Her NSF- supported work uses qualitative and archival methods to investigate water management in New Mexico, focusing on the legal-historical geographies of conflict, negotiation, and scientific knowledge production. This work has been published in Journal of Historical Geography and is forthcoming in Aether. Dr. Lane is also the author of several publications on the historical development of scientific thinking about arid-lands geography on the planet Mars, most notably the monograph Geographies of Mars: Seeing and Knowing the Red Planet (University of Chicago Press, 2011). Dr. Lane is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at UNM. She received her Ph.D. in Geography at the University of Texas-Austin in 2006, and a M.S.C.R.P. (Environmental Planning focus) at the University of Texas in 2000. </p><p>Christopher D. Lippitt, Co-PI Dr. C.D. Lippitt has expertise in remote sensing, species distribution modeling, and spatial analysis, with a focus on the exploitation of remote sensing data for time-sensitive analysis, time- series analysis, and the optimization of information delivery systems, particularly with respect to remote sensing. He has published in top journals for remote sensing (e.g., Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing), Geography (e.g., Annals of the Association of American Geographers) and ecological modeling (e.g., Ecological Modeling). He has collaborated on and investigated research funded through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and The European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC). He is also a American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Certified Mapping Scientist in remote sensing (CMS-RS # 188) and Robert N. Colwell Memorial Fellow. Dr. C.D. Lippitt is currently a Research Associate in the Department of Geography at San Diego State University, where he completed his Ph.D. in Geography in 2012. He also holds a M.A. in Geographic Information Science and B.A. in Geography from Clark University. He will join the UNM faculty as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies in Fall 2012.</p><p>Christopher S. Duvall, Investigator Dr. Duvall has expertise in the biogeography of multiple plant and animal species, as well as in the historical and cultural ecology of human-environment interactions across the Atlantic Basin, from arid West Africa to tropical Central America and the semi-arid American Southwest. He has published in numerous geography journals, including Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Journal of Historical Geography, Landscape Ecology, and Journal of Biogeography. </p><p>88 Dr. Duvall is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at UNM. He received his Ph.D. in Geography at the University of Wisconsin in 2006, and his M.S. in Environmental Studies at San Jose State University in 2000.</p><p>Caitlin L. Lippitt, Investigator C.L. 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