EUROPEAN CHOICE AS A STRATEGY FOR WHY THE DONBAS IS POLITICALLY INERT deSPITE FRANCIS FUKUYAMA ON THE ROLE YANUKOVYCH TO WIN FREQUENT PROTESTS AND FRUSTRATION OF THE MIddLE CLASS IN deMOCRATIC THE UPCOMING ELECTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT TRANSFORMATIONS № 17 (59) SEPTEMBER 2013 THE LAST TSAR? WHILE RUSSIA IS REACHING OUT FOR ITS NEIGHBOURS, ITS INTERNAL PROBLEMS ARE UNRESOLVed WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist AND MOUNTING FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION |CONTENTS BRIEFING POLITICS Who Will Win the Game? As the European Choice Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius for Yanukovych as draws closer, doubts fade that Kyiv a weighty bonus and Brussels will sign the Association to help him in the Agreement. The next question is how next presidential they see its implementation election 4 6 FOCUS Oil addiion Russian economy is heavily dependent on the price of fuels. So far, Russia has managed to avoid GDP decline thanks to the financial resources it accumulated earlier. How long will they la? The Klondike for the Opposition: After Gas: Heavy Real growth, %, year on year Growth in %, year on year 15 100 Indury Protest sentiments are escalating dependence on exports GDP 80 10 60 in the Donbas. Distrust for of fuels brings Russian 5 40 0 politics and inert opposition economy to the verge 20 -5 0 make the dissent purely of a deep recession -10 Oil prices * (right-hand scale) Gas prices * -20 (right-hand scale) pragmatic and local -15 -40 -20 -60 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12 * Eimates are based on WTI crude oil spot prices and monthly prices of Russian natural gas on the German border Sources: Russian Federal State Statiics Service, indemundi.com, own eimates Resetting to a Cold Peace: Janusz Leonidas Donskis Bugajski on what will be testing the on how Europe lost temperature between Washington and Armenia Moscow in the near future 14 17 Phantoms of Disintegration: Derussification: The Kremlin’s ineffective Revanchist ambitions and regional policy and the the intent looming economic troubles to retain Muslim peoples fuel sparks of separatism within its orbit aggravate ethnic and religious 18 tensions in Russia 20 SOCIETY HISTORY Francis Fukuyama on The Cross Versus the Crescent middle class as the driver Moon: The Battle of Vienna of democracy, the role of as the last chord in the trust for the state and the Ottoman invasion to Europe, end of history and Ukrainian Cossacks in it 21 24 CULTURE & ARTS Harmonizing Ethno Chaos: Dig Deeper: DakhaBrakha’s Marko An intimate story of a Halanevych talks about solitary traveler from post-modernist folklore and Gogol Bordello music tastes in Ukraine 28 30 NAVIGATOR A Guide to Majestic Wooden Churches: Lucrative Lifesavers: Slender Gothic towers, lavish Baroque The hopes and perils iconostases and pre-Christian domes of betting on cancer hidden in the mountains along the treatments Polish-Ukrainian border 32 35 E-mail [email protected] Tel. (044) 351-13-87 www.ukrainianweek.com The Ukrainian Week № 17 (59) September 2013 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH Print Novy Druk LLC, 1 Mahnitohorska str., Kyiv, 03056, Ukraine Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Ordering number 13-7776 Sent to print on 19 September 2013 Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Print run 15 000. Free distribution State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Head of editorial board Roman Tsupryk Our partner Editors Anna Korbut, Natalia Romaneс, Shaun Williams № 17 (59) SEPTEMBER 2013|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|3 BRIEFING| 13-19 September Shell is authorized Russia The mass media reports that the Sci- to start exploration launches a ence, Education and Youth Depart- then extract shale “milk war” ment of the Kyiv City State Administra- gas at Yuzivka Field against tion compiles lists of school students in Donetsk and Lithuania whose parents are journalists.These Kharkiv Oblasts dossiers may be used against journalists WHO WILL WIN THE GAME? As the November Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius draws closer, doubts fade that Kyiv and Brussels will sign the Association Agreement. How they see its implementation, is the question current interests of the govern- Author: The recent challenge from Rus- dum on Ukraine’s membership in ment. According to the more prag- Oleksandr sia has only reinforced motivation the Eurasian Customs Union and matic interests of Europeans, it Kramar to sign the Association Agreement the Cabinet of Ministers unani- should give more chances for a rel- this November. The unanimity with mously approved the draft EU- atively quick change of the current which the European Parliament Ukraine Association Agreement. In authoritarian political elite in came out against Russian pressure addition, the Verkhovna Rada be- Ukraine through the next presiden- and published a “practical support” gan to actively vote for laws that tial and parliamentary elections initiative for Eastern Partnership have to be passed before the sign- scheduled for 2015–2017 accord- participants, recorded in the Sep- ing. ingly, in what will then be an asso- tember 12 resolution, is notable. Recently, when accepting the ciated Ukraine. The release or During a discussion on the issue, credentials of ambassadors, Yanu- medical treatment abroad of Yulia the threat of a domino effect was kovych declared that: “… lately, we Tymoshenko is necessary. This will voiced after the announcement of and our EU partners have come to eliminate an important image-re- the Armenian President on Arme- the conclusion that Ukraine has lated irritant for European leaders, nia’s intent to drop EU Association achieved the criteria that comply first and foremost, Angela Merkel, in favour of membership in the Cus- with the Association Agreement who used their authority to de- toms Union with Russia. Calls came which is currently being prepared to help stabilize the countries that for the signing in Vilnius in No- are suffering economic and political vember.” These words, however, pressure from Moscow. A number tell more of the Ukrainian govern- of formulations of the final text of ment’s stance than the actual prog- the resolution, which Russian top ress in the execution of Füle’s list officials have already characterized or the criteria determined by the as a “hysterical reaction”, prove that EU Council last December. The the Kremlin’s actions have made the Ukrainian government’s compli- outcome of the Vilnius Summit ance with these requirements is more dependent on geopolitical re- a pre-condition for the signing of sistance, as well as that the Kremlin the Agreement. However, the EU is moving towards further confron- does not hide the fact that prior to tation. Under such conditions, the the summit, which is ten weeks European Parliament called on the away, the Ukrainian government European Commission and the Eu- will not fulfil all the conditions and ropean External Action Service Europeans will want at least (EEAS) to take action to protect the “progress” on this course. Ya- EU’s partners, and the EC and EU nukovych’s view is that ful- Council – to come up with specific filling several requirements, and effective measures to support in full or in part, should be partner-countries by means of tem- sufficient to demonstrate this porary application of relevant parts progress. The biggest stumbling of the Association Agreement and blocks are the approval of the DCFTA immediately after signing. Election Code and the resolu- In their turn, Viktor Yanu- tion of the Tymoshenko/se- kovych has tamed the anti-Euro- lective justice issue. The for- pean contingent in the Party of Re- mer should make it impos- gions, the Central Election Commit- sible to juggle election tee has rejected the Communist legislation prior to Party’s request to conduct a referen- each election to fit 4|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|№ 17 (59) SEPTEMBER 2013 |BRIEFING The Central ElectionC ommission The Anti-Monopoly The Party of Regions elects six ministers andF irstV ice Pre- rejects theC ommunistP arty’s Committee allows mier Serhiy Arbuzov to the party board. MPs Borys Kolesn- request to hold a referendum on Rinat Akhmetov to buy ikov and National Defence and Security Council Secretary An- Ukraine’s integration into the UkrTelecom, Ukraine’s driy Kliuyev are elected party deputy heads.T hese rotations CustomsU nion. The official reason biggest fixed line signal the Family’s growing influence in the party is violation of the submission operator mand the release of the imprisoned thus hopes to save face during the an interview for the Vesti (News) former prime minister. However, signing of the Agreement without newspaper, he commented on argu- for Yanukovych’s regime, the exe- full execution of the conditions de- ments supposedly made by Ukrai- cution of these two conditions is manded of Yanukovych. Its pretext nian officials in a discussion with obviously dangerous, because it is that the requirements can be ful- their Russian counterparts of pros- could complicate his staying in filled later as a necessary compo- pects of cooperation with the Cus- power after 2015. nent of ratification by the European toms Union once the Association For this reason, worth noting is Parliament. The EU will fully con- Agreement is signed: “First they say information on a possible change to trol the situation after such agree- that ‘we shall not be executing this enact several provisions of the Asso- ment is reached. On the one hand, it Agreement with the EU’, then they ciation Agreement temporarily can delay ratification by the Euro- convince us that ‘it will not be rati- prior to its ratification by all 28 EU pean Parliament until official Kyiv fied by European Parliaments’ and countries.