IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9

IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 1 Index1NC...... 4Uniqueness...... 5-9Link - Welfare...... 10-12Link – Social Services...... 13-17 Link – Education...... 18 Link – Health care...... 19Impacts Impact – Turns the Case...... 20 Impact – Turns Healthcare...... 21Impact Module – Economy...... 22 Impact Ext – Economy...... 23 Impact Ext – Economy Impacts...... 24 Impact Ext – Economy...... 25Impact Module – Californian Economy (1/2)...... 26 Impact Module – Californian Economy (2/2)...... 27 Impact Ext- California Key to US Economy...... 28 Impact Ext- Immigration hurts California’s economy...... 29 Impact – Econ key to Heg...... 30Impact Module – Warming (1/2)...... 31 Impact Module – Warming (2/2)...... 32 Ext- Immigration  Warming...... 33 AT: We still emit CO2...... 34 AT: Other Countries...... 35 AT: China...... 36 Warming = Anthropogenic/happening now (1/2)...... 37 Warming = Anthropogenic/happening now (2/2)...... 38Impact Module – Terrorism...... 39 Impact Ext – Terrorism...... 40 Impact Ext – Terrorism...... 41 Impact Ext – Terrorism...... 42 Impact Ext – Terrorism...... 43Impact Module – Environment...... 44 Impact Ext – Environment...... 45 Impact Ext – Environment...... 46Last printed 1 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 2Impact Ext – Environment...... 47 Impact Ext – Environment...... 48Impact Module – Pollution...... 51 Impact Module – Crime...... 52Impact Module – Disease...... 53 Impact Ext – Disease...... 54 Impact Ext – Disease...... 55 Impact Ext – Disease...... 56 Impact Ext – Disease...... 57 Impact Ext – Disease...... 58 Impact Ext – Disease...... 59 Impact Ext – Disease...... 60 Impact – Disease => Poverty...... 61 Impact – Disease => State failure...... 62 Disease Impacts...... 63 Disease Impacts...... 64Impact Module – Drug Trafficking...... 65 Impact Ext – Drug Trafficking...... 66 Impact Ext – Drug Trafficking...... 67 Impact – Sex trafficking...... 68 Impact Ext – Sex Trafficking...... 69 Impact – Sex Crimes...... 70 AT: Immigrants Help the Economy...... 712NC Blocks 2NC Overview...... 72 Uniqueness Extensions...... 73 AT: OUR AFF solves the Impact...... 74 AT: Immigration will increase when the economy improves...... 75 A/T: Other Things Are Magnets...... 76 2NC Disad Turns Case...... 77 2NC Disad Turns Case...... 78 2NC “mexico econ is worse means disad inev.”...... 79 AT: Magnet Theory Not True...... 80 Generic Social Services Link Ext...... 81 Link Ext. – Jobs...... 82 2NC Healthcare Links...... 83AFF ANSWERS Aff Uniqueness...... 84 Aff Uniqueness...... 85 AFF – Economy...... 86 AFF – Economy...... 87Last printed 2 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 3AFF – Economy...... 88 Immigration Good- Economy/ AT: DA Turns the Case (1/2)...... 89 Immigration Good- Economy/ AT: DA Turns the Case (2/2)...... 90 Immigration Good- Economy...... 91 Immigration Good – Economy...... 92 Immigration Good – Economy...... 93 Aff: Immigration K2 Economy...... 94 AFF – No Link – Social Services...... 95 AFF – No Link – Social Services...... 96 AFF – No Link – Welfare...... 97 AFF – No Link – Welfare...... 98 AFF – No Link - Healthcare...... 99 AFF - No Link – Healthcare...... 100 AFF – Immigration =/= enviro collapse...... 101 AFF – No Access to Welfare...... 102 AFF – Welfare Magnet False...... 103 AFF – AT: Immigrants => unemployment...... 104 AFF – Impact Inev: Push factors...... 105 AFF – Impact Inev...... 106 AFF – Drug Trafficking Good...... 107 Aff- immigration inevitable...... 108Last printed 3 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 4 1NCImmigration is declining - the recession and lack of jobs NYT 5 – 14 – 09 . The New York Times. [“Mexican Data Show Migration to U.S. in Decline”] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/us/15immig.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=MexicaN%20dATA%20sHOW %20mIGRATION%20TO%20u.s.%20IN%20dECLINE&st=cse MEXICALI, Mexico — Census data from the Mexican government indicate an extraordinary decline in the number of Mexican immigrants going to the U nited S tates. The recently released data show that about 226,000 fewer people emigrated from Mexico to other countries during the year that ended in August 2008 than during the previous year, a decline of 25 percent . All but a very small fraction of emigration, both legal and illegal, from Mexico is to the United States. Because of surging immigration, the Mexican-born population in the United States has grown steeply year after year since the early 1990s, dipping briefly only after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, census data in both countries show. Mexican and American researchers say that the current decline, which has also been manifested in a decrease in arrests along the border, is largely a result of Mexicans’ deciding to delay illegal crossings because of the lack of jobs in the ailing American economy. The trend emerged clearly with the onset of the recession and, demographers say, provides new evidence that illegal immigrants from Mexico, by far the biggest source of unauthorized migration to the United States, are drawn by jobs and respond to a sinking labor market by staying away. “ If jobs are available, people come ,” said Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. “If jobs are not available, people don’t come.”Increasing social services draws unproductive immigrants which crowds out social services Steven Malanga, Staff writer, 06 [How Unskilled Workers Hurt Our Economy, http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_3_immigrants_economy.html, City Journal] If the benefits of the current generation of migrants are small, the costs are large and growing because of America's vast range of social programs and the wide advocacy network that strives to hook low-earning legal and illegal immigrants into these programs. A 1998 National Academy of Sciences study found that more than 30 percent of California's foreign-born were on Medicaid—including 37 percent of all Hispanic households - compared with 14 percent of native-born households. The foreign-born were more than twice as likely as the native-born to be on welfare, and their children were nearly five times as likely to be in means-tested government lunch programs. Native-born households pay for much of this, the study found, because they earn more and pay higher taxes - and are more likely to comply with tax laws. Recent immigrants, by contrast, have much lower levels of income and tax compliance (another study estimated that only 56 percent of illegals in California have taxes deducted from their earnings, for instance). The study's conclusion: immigrant families cost each native-born household in California an additional $1,200 a year in taxes.Immigration's bottom line has shifted so sharply that in a high-immigration state like California, native-born residents are paying up to ten times more in state and local taxes than immigrants generate in economic benefits. Moreover, the cost is only likely to grow as the foreign-born population - which has already mushroomed from about 9 percent of the U.S. population when the NAS studies were done in the late 1990s to about 12 percent today – keeps growing. And citizens in more and more places will feel the bite, as immigrants move beyond their traditional settling places. From 1990 to 2005, the number of states in which immigrants make up at least 5 percent of the population nearly doubled from 17 to 29, with states like Arkansas, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Georgia seeing the most growth. This sharp turnaround since the 1970s, when immigrants were less likely to be using the social programs of the Great Society than the native-born population, says Harvard economist Borjas, suggests that welfare and other social programs are a magnet drawing certain types of immigrants - nonworking women, children, and the elderly - and keeping them here when they run into difficulty. Almost certainly, immigrants' participation in our social welfare programs will increase over time, because so many are destined to struggle in our workforce. Despite our cherished view of immigrants as rapidly climbing the economic ladder, more and more of the new arrivals and their children face a lifetime of economic disadvantage, because they arrive here with low levels of education and with few work skills—shortcomings not easily overcome."[insert impact module]Last printed 4 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 5 UniquenessIllegal immigrants are not crossing the border now because of the bad economy Dominic Rushe 5/17/09; “Without the Mexicans, US dream is dead” The Sunday Times (London) http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T7019326754&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T7019326757& cisb=22_T7019326756&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=332263&docNo=18AT LAST America seems to have found a solution to the problem of illegal immigration: blow up the economy. Newly released census data from the Mexican government has revealed a big fall in the number of Mexicans making their way to America. Border patrols vans are coming back empty after combing the desert that separates the States from Mexico in vain. "Wet backs" are no longer braving the waters of the Rio Grande in the hope of a better life in the Land of the Free. The 600 miles of border wall the US has spent so much trying to construct is now more a hindrance to the local jaguar population than a boost to national security. According to the latest statistics, the number of Mexicans heading north, illegally and legally, has fallen by 25% during the year to August 2008, compared with the previous year. This is a fall of about 226,000 people. But if it was not obvious before, Mexicans come here to work and not to sponge off the US government. Driven out by the economic mess in its homeland, the Mexicanborn population in America has been rising since the early 1990s, dipping briefly only after the attacks of September 11, 2001, according to census data in both countries. Oddly, for a country founded on immigration, the debate over illegal workers has become rabid in recent years. Mexicans have been blamed for a fictitious rise in leprosy as well as the recent outbreak of swine 'flu. In part, it is no doubt a reaction to the fact that America is rapidly becoming more Hispanic. Last year, Jose was the most popular name for baby boys born in Texas, beating Jacob, Daniel and Christopher. Angel, Juan, Diego and Luis all made the top 20. Jose has been the top boy's name in Texas since 1996. In fact, most of those Joses are not illegal, many are not even Mexican. But that is not to say that America does not have a problem with illegal immigrants. Mexicans account for 32% of immigrants in America, and more than half of them lack legal status, according to the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan think-tank. There are still at least 11m illegal immigrants here and, while their numbers are not growing, they do not seem to be dropping either. Arizona's state prisons hold 6,100 illegals, which is about 15% of the inmate population. The Department of Corrections estimates it will spend $128m (¤94m) this year incarcerating illegal immigrants. The bill could fall as Mexicans abandon plans to jump the border for fear of not finding a job in America. Let's hope the economy picks up soon and Mexicans come flooding back across the border to build our homes, mow our lawns and wash our dishes. It is the American dream..Last printed 5 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 6 UniquenessEconomic crisis proves illegal immigration will decline Preston 5-14-09 (Julia, New York Times, “Mexican Data Show Migration to U.S. in Decline,” http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/us/15immig.html? _r=1&hp) [Charlie Stephens]The recently released data show that about 226,000 fewer people emigrated from Mexico to other countries during the year that ended in August 2008 than during the previous year, a decline of 25 percent. All but a very small fraction of emigration, both legal and illegal, from Mexico is to the United States. Because of surging immigration, the Mexican-born population in the United States has grown steeply year after year since the early 1990s, dipping briefly only after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, census data in both countries show. Mexican and American researchers say that the current decline, which has also been manifested in a decrease in arrests along the border, is largely a result of Mexicans’ deciding to delay illegal crossings because of the lack of jobs in the ailing American economy. The trend emerged clearly with the onset of the recession and, demographers say, provides new evidence that illegal immigrants from Mexico, by far the biggest source of unauthorized migration to the United States, are drawn by jobs and respond to a sinking labor market by staying away.Squo economy means immigrant rates go down News 21 ‘08 (Amy Crawford, News 21 Reporter, project sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation and Knight Foundation, featuring innovative approaches to storytelling and reporting from more than fellows associated with top U.S. journalism programs. 9-29-08. “How Will Economy Affect Immigration.” http://news21blog.org/2008/09/29/how-will-the-economy-affect-immigration/) New census figures that came out earlier this month showed drastically reduced immigration numbers in 2007. Demographic experts attributed this decline to an economic slowdown. As a recent editorial in Scripps papers put it, “We’ve discovered something more effective than a wall and workplace raids at discouraging illegal immigrants from trying to enter the United States and encouraging those already here to leave—a bad economy.” At Forbes, Edward Alden points out that more than half of our PhD students are foreign-born. With a weaker economy, they will have fewer reasons to stay.Economic crisis proves illegal immigration will slow USA Today, 6/29/09 (“Recession freezes immigration debate but points to answers”, Lexis) [Charlie Stephens] Even before rising unemployment began to affect Americans, Mexicans were reacting to the changing jobs climate. Data just out from the Mexican government show 226,000 fewer people emigrated from Mexico in the year ended August 2008 than during the prior year. That's a 25% drop. The decline confirms what has been generally accepted for years: Jobs and the willingness of U.S. employers to hire illegal immigrants are the fuel that powers the system. Cut off the supply, and you can slow the illegal flow. Which points to workplace enforcement as a key part of the equation. Yet scores of high-profile workplace raids netted fewer than 6,000 illegal workers last year. Last printed 6 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 7 Uniqueness11% decline of illegal immigrants since 2007 – enforcement proves Preston, staff writer, 2008 (Julia, 7/31/2008, New York Times, Lexis) [Charlie Stephens]The number of illegal immigrants in the country has dropped by as much 1.3 million in the past year, an 11 percent decline since a historic peak last August, an immigration research group in Washington said in a report released Wednesday. The report, by Steven A. Camarota and Karen Jensenius of the Center for Immigration Studies, found ''strong indications'' that stepped-up enforcement by immigration authorities had played a major role in the decline. The report, which is based on monthly census surveys as recent as May, added to a growing body of studies indicating that the population of illegal immigrants in the United States is dropping significantly.First illegal immigration decline in four years – economy and enforcement proves Frank, staff writer, 09 (Thomas, 2/24/09, USA Today, “Number of illegal immigrants declines; Better apprehension and rising unemployment in USA cited,” Lexis) [Charlie Stephens]The number of illegal immigrants in the USA fell for the first time in at least four years, as the nation's tough economy discourages people from sneaking into the USA, the Homeland Security Department said Monday. The decline still left the country with 11.6 million illegal residents in January 2008, down from a record 11.8 million a year earlier, according to a Homeland Security report. There were about 4 million illegal residents in 1990, according to federal agencies and researchers. Homeland Security spokesman Mike Keegan said rising unemployment led to fewer people trying to sneak across the border. Keegan also said the department is doing a better job stopping people from entering the country illegally and apprehending illegal residents in the USA.Enforcement and Economy means 40 year low in illegal immigration Hsu, staff writer, 5/21/09 (Spencer S., 5/21/09, Washington Post, “Arrests on Southern Border Drop; 27% decline Marks Fewest Seizures by Agents Since 1976,” Lexis) [Charlie Stephens] The number of arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border has dropped 27 percent this year, a decline that could put the figure at its lowest level since the early 1970s, federal officials said yesterday. The decline accelerates a three-year-old trend that experts attribute to the economic downturn, with stronger U.S. immigration enforcement measures also playing a role. U.S. Border Patrol Chief David V. Aguilar released the data to the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, refugees and border security, noting that the number of Border Patrol agents has more than doubled from 9,000 in 2001 to a projected 20,000 by September. The government also has completed 626 miles of fencing and vehicle barriers. It plans 661 miles of barriers on the 2,000-mile frontier. "By several measures, the border is far more secure than it has ever been and, with our help, will soon be even more secure," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the panel, which held the first of four hearings scheduled to take place before the August recess. Aides said the hearings are meant to build a case for overhauling immigration laws.Last printed 7 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 8 UniquenessEconomy and enforcement makes 3 year low in illegal immigration Dinan, 3/1/09 [Stephen, Washington Times, “llegal population down slightly in U.S,” Lexis) [Charlie Stephens]The federal government last week confirmed that after years of increases, the illegal-immigrant population in the U.S. dropped for the first time, between 2007 and 2008 - about the time that both a recession and tougher immigration enforcement began. In a report, the Department of Homeland Security's Office of Immigration Statistics said the illegal-immigrant population in January 2008 was 11.6 million - or 200,000 smaller than a year earlier. DHS demographers didn't hazard a guess as to why the population dropped, and cautioned against reading too much into one year's figures. But the findings seem to confirm projections from both liberal and conservative analysts outside government. "Our OIS report indicates a drop of approximately 200,000 in the illegal-immigrant population in the U.S. The department's increased border security and interior-enforcement efforts, along with the state of the economy, may contribute to this," said Amy Kudwa, spokeswoman for DHS.Illegal immigration decreasing Meckler and Simpson, 5/21/09 (Laura and Cam, staff writers, Wall Street Journal, “White House, Lawmakers to meet on immigration,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124286885555741791.html?mod=relevancy) [Charlie Stephens]Federal data released Wednesday suggest illegal immigration into the U.S. is approaching a low for modern times, a decline analysts have pegged to the recession. Apprehensions along the border with Mexico are down 27% during the current fiscal year compared with the same period a year ago, even as enforcement efforts have been increased. If the trend continues, this year's decline would be steeper than the 24.5% drop in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.More illegal immigrants are leaving than coming Iliff, staff writer, 2/9/09 (Laurence, Dallas Morning News, “Recession slows illegal border crossings,” http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/mexico/stories/DN-immigration_09int.ART.State.Edition1.4c445b0.html) [Charlie Stephens] Analysts agree that the number of illegal Mexican immigrants in the U.S. is falling for the first time in a long time as young people stay put in places like San Luis Potosí and do not replenish those who return home for a variety of reasons, some of them economic ones. Meléndez, the 18-year-old from Villa Juárez, said word from his friend in Dallas is that the employment situation is dicey for illegal workers. "She says she's working just two days a week, so I am trying to make it here for now," he said. "Maybe I'll go later." At the same time that many would-be immigrants are staying put, a recent study suggested that an exodus of immigrants from the U.S. was under way, although other U.S. and Mexican authorities dispute that. Citing U.S. Census Bureau data, a July study by the "pro- immigrant, low-immigration" Center for Immigration Studies found that the Hispanic illegal immigrant population had "declined by 11 percent through May 2008 after hitting a peak in August 2007." The decline, it said, was 1.3 million people – from 12.5 million to 11.2 million – and was mostly "illegal immigrants leaving on their own."Last printed 8 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 9Uniqueness Immigration has been substantially reduced Mcclathy Newspapers, 7/23 (Mcclathy Newspapers, 7/23/09 The McClatchy Company is the third-largest newspaper company in the United States, a leading newspaper and internet publisher dedicated to the values of quality journalism, free expression and community service http://www.mcclatchy.com) Their job prospects battered by a deep recession, fewer immigrants are being caught trying to cross illegally into the United States than at any time since the 1970s, two reports based on new federal data say. But it remains unclear whether many illegal immigrants already here are heading back home. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border are down 34 percent over the past two years, according to new U.S. Department of Homeland Security data — and on pace to be even lower in fiscal 2009. With record removals of unauthorized migrants in the U.S. and increased spending on border security, the economic and enforcement barriers to crossing into California and other Southwestern states have rarely been higher, federal officials and immigration experts say. "It’s far riskier to cross the border, it costs more, and the rewards are simply not there — the jobs that have driven people here for 40 years," said Al Camarillo, a Stanford historian who follows Latin American immigration. A new Pew Research Center report estimates that for the 12 months ending in February 2009, the net migration between Mexico and the U.S. — the number of people coming to the U.S. minus those returning to Mexico — was about 203,000, less than half of the 547,000 two years earlier. Last printed 9 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 10 Link - WelfareThe aff creates an immigration magnet- multiple warrants Borjas, Professor of Economics and Social Policy at Harvard- 97 (George J. Borjas an American economist and the Robert W. Scrivner Professor of Economics and Social Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, 1997, http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~gborjas/Papers/NR061697.htm) The welfare state can also have a magnetic effect on immigrants. Welfare programs in the United States, though not generous by Western European standards, stack up pretty well when compared to the standard of living available in most of the world's less-developed countries. While it is true that many immigrants come to the United States for job opportunities, decades of economic research into the determinants of migration decisions have demonstrated that it is potential income that is the significant factor. And the welfare state provides a lot of income opportunities , especially for persons with few skills. As a result, the question is not whether magnetic effects exist -- they do. Rather, the question is whether these magnetic effects are numerically important. Three different types of magnetic effects influence immigrant behavior. It is possible that welfare programs attract persons who otherwise would not have migrated to the United States. This is the magnetic effect most people have in mind, but is also the one about which there is least empirical evidence. Second, the safety net might also discourage immigrants who "fail" in the United States from returning to their home countries. A recent study (by economists Randall Olsen and Patricia Regan of Ohio State University) provides the first hint of such a magnetic effect by showing that the probability of out-migration is greatly reduced if the household receives public assistance in the United States. Finally, magnetic effects arise from the huge disparities between different states' welfare benefits. In 1970, California's AFDC benefit level was only 68 per cent that of the median state; twenty years later it was 2.5 times that of the median state. By 1990, California's benefit package was the second most generous in the nation (surpassed only by Alaska's). It turns out that the fraction of new immigrants not on welfare who chose to live in California dropped between 1980 and 1990, from 30.1 to 28.9 per cent. But the fraction of new immigrants on welfare who chose to live in California rose sharply, from 36.9 to 45.4 per cent. The evidence, therefore, suggests a clustering effect upon immigrant welfare recipients as California's benefit level rose above that of other states. The existence of ethnic networks and magnetic effects implies that immigrants respond to variations in welfare benefits. As a result, it should not be too surprising that the welfare problem in the immigrant population has grown considerably in the past two decades.Immigrants are drawn to America through social services Gorak, Executive Director of the Midwest Coalition to Reduce Immigration, 08 (Dave Gorak, Executive Director of the Midwest Coalition to Reduce Immigration. He also spoke at a roundtable on immigration integration http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc_18_4/tsc_18_4_gorak.shtml) These immigrants, while like previous newcomers in certain respects, are in fact dramatically different because they have the luxury of a welfare safety net to prop them up if they fail to achieve their version of a better life. This luxury wasn’t available to many of the 24 million immigrants who came here during the 1880–1924 “Great Wave” but returned to their own countries during economic downturns. Malanga writes, for example, that almost 60 percent of foreigners in this country during the Great Depression packed up and left. In short, immigrants in the past arrived willing to risk all for the opportunity to better themselves; today’s arrivals come with a sense of entitlement because of the services now available to them, including “free” education and health care and (in certain states) driver’s licenses and in-state tuition rates. Our government’s willingness to spare no effort to coddle Hispanics, which includes refusing to enforce its own immigration laws, has done much to shatter the unity and quality of life in many communities, including Selma, Calif., Hanson’s own hometown. What’s taken place in Selma during the past 50 years led to Hanson’s celebrated work, MexiforniaLast printed 10 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 11Link – WelfareWelfare encourages illegal immigration and creates a market for illegal foreign labor Paul, Texas member of congress, 05 (Raun Paul, Republican member of congress from texas, 8/9/05 http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul269.html) We must end welfare state subsidies for illegal immigrants. Some illegal immigrants – certainly not all – receive housing subsidies, food stamps, free medical care, and other forms of welfare. This alienates taxpayers and breeds suspicion of immigrants, even though the majority of them work very hard. Without a welfare state, we would know that everyone coming to America wanted to work hard and support himself. Our current welfare system also encourages illegal immigration by discouraging American citizens from taking low-wage jobs. This creates greater demand for illegal foreign labor. Welfare programs and minimum wage laws create an artificial market for labor to do the jobs Americans supposedly won’t do.Welfare programs attract illegal immigrants Borjas, Professor of Public Policy, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2003 (George J., “Welfare Reform and Immigrant Participation in Welfare Programs,” http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi- bin/fulltext/119926497/PDFSTART) [Charlie Stephens]There is also concern over the possibility that the relatively generous welfare programs offered by the United States have become a magnet for immigrants. The magnet hypothesis has several facets. It is possible, for example, that welfare programs attract immigrants who otherwise would not have migrated to the United States; or that the safety net discourages immigrants who “fail” in the United States from returning to their source countries; or that the huge interstate disparity in welfare benefits affects the residential location choices of immigrants in the United States and places a heavy fiscal burden on relatively generous states. In short, the welfare state creates a magnet that influences the migration decisions of persons in the source countries, potentially changing the composition and geographic location of the immigrant population in the United States in ways that may not be desirable. The potential magnetic effects of welfare raise questions about both the political legitimacy and the economic viability of the welfare state: Who is entitled to the safety net that American taxpayers pay for? And can the United States afford to extend that safety net to the rest of the world? Surprisingly, and despite their potential significance, few studies attempt to determine if such magnetic effects exist or if they are empirically important.Link – WelfareWelfare is the only illegal immigrant magnet- empirically proven Scaliger, 8 (Charles, teacher and freelance writer, The New American, FindArticles.com. "Avoiding extreme solutions: in trying to solve the problem of illegal immigration, both extremes—opening our southern border completely or imposing police-state controls—must be avoided" http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JZS/is_5_24/ai_n25020141/ March 3, 2008)Illegal immigration, smuggling, and other illicit border activities on a small scale have always been facts of life that no amount of border vigilance can wholly prevent. So are wars, famines, and other crises abroad that drive people to emigrate. The Irish potato famine in the 19th century was a case in point; so were the Mexican Civil War, the World Wars, and the Cold War. All of these crises prompted immigrants--sometimes in very large numbers--to seek refuge in America. Yet illegal immigration always amounted to a comparatively minuscule percentage of the whole. Even the long and bitter Mexican Civil War created no massive exodus of beleaguered Mexicans willing to enter the United States illegally, despite the fact that Mexico then was far worse off than it is now, and crossing the Rio Grande unnoticed was far simpler.Last printed 11 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 12Welfare Magnet. The ongoing flood of illegal immigrants, many but by no means all originating from south of the border (large numbers also arrive from Asia, often via Canada, which has much laxer immigration standards), cannot, therefore, be blamed on the usual suspects -- war, poverty, and despotism abroad . Something else has changed in recent decades, and it has little to do with perennial corruption and poverty in Mexico. That something is the burgeoning American welfare state, a bloated, unconstitutional application of federal power that offers largesse to Americans and non-Americans alike, combined with a perversely tolerant climate of border law enforcement. A Mexican or other foreign national choosing to enter the United States illegally can expect to find a job, free medical care, free schooling for his children, and eventually may become the beneficiary of amnesty legislation . The single most important solution to the illegal-immigration crisis is to remove the legal and political incentives for illegal immigration. Not only would this discourage future illegal immigration, it would cause many illegal immigrants already here to self-deport. Yet many in Washington and in state houses across the land, reluctant to diminish the welfare spoils system of which the political class itself is the chiefest beneficiary, are now considering measures that will endanger our freedoms in the name of curbing both illegal immigration and one of its potentially deadly handmaidens, terrorist activity. These measures will compound the very problem that the politicos created, and generate new problems besides. Last printed 12 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 13 Link – Social ServicesIllegal immigrants exploit loopholes – makes social services a magnetWyans, Staff Writer, 2008 [Jacon Wyans, Push-Pull Factors That Led to Mexican Immigration to California Throughout the Twentieth Century, http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1041416/pushpull_factors_that_led_to_mexican.html, September 24 2008, Associated Press] In addition to the fact that American companies make a compelling environment to attract Mexican labor, the United States government also provides attractive incentives for Mexicans to immigrate to the US.[22] Once in the United States, Mexican immigrants are able to exploit loopholes in government policies.[23] Through this process, Mexican immigrants had been able to garner access to various social and health services that allowed them to notably improve their standard of living. The ability of Mexican immigrants to exploit these loopholes is what eventually led to the passage of California's Proposition 187. This legislation notably decreased the services that were available to Mexican immigrants and expedited the process of deportation for illegal immigrants.[24] Although this legislation was subsequently dropped during the appeals process, the message sent clearly elucidated the problems that exist within the context of the loopholes that have been made available to Mexican immigrants.Last printed 13 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 14 Link – HealthcareHealthcare will be an immigration magnet McKinley, a bureau chief of the New York Times, 07 (Jesse Mckinley, He is the San Francisco bureau chief of The New York Times. Previously, he was an arts reporter at the Times, 1/10/07 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/us/10health.html) Chief among the challenges, politicians and policy analysts said Tuesday, is the enormous number of political players — from big labor and big insurance to small-county government — that would be affected by any universal health care bill. “I cannot think of another topic that requires so many people to be heard to build consensus,” said one Democratic lawmaker, Don Perata, Senate president pro tem. “You’d have to rent out Madison Square Garden to get them all in there.” Mr. Schwarzenegger’s plan would extend care to the 6.5 million Californians who currently have no insurance, including an estimated one million illegal immigrants. That is just one of the elements to which Republicans are objecting. “Health coverage for illegal aliens is a nonstarter for us,” said Robert Huff, chairman of the Assembly’s Republican caucus. “It creates a magnet for them coming here rather than staying there.” Last printed 14 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 15 Link – Social ServicesIncreased social services results in illegal immigration which turns the case Gray 06 - Chief Policy Analyst of the Civitas Institute [Becky, "Civitas Institute: Higher Minimum Wage Would Be Magnet For Illegal Immigrants" http://www.wsoctv.com/news/9829933/detail.html]Raising the minimum wage, in addition to the other benefits provided by the state, could encourage a greater number of illegal immigrants to come to North Carolina. Keeping the minimum wage at the current rate of $5.15 per hour won’t end the allure for illegal immigrants, but it won’t encourage more to come.In the Senate Budget Bill (SB 1741), and in a free-standing bill before the House (HB 2174), legislators want to raise the minimum wage to $6.15 per hour, one dollar more than the federal rate. This would make North Carolina’s minimum wage the highest of surrounding states, the highest between Florida and New Jersey, and the 14th highest in the country. Six states have no minimum wage state laws. They let the free market determine what workers are paid. Twenty-seven states (N.C. currently among them) adhere to the rate set by the federal government — $5.15 per hour. Nineteen states have minimum wages higher than the federal level (N.C. would join these states). Of the five states with the highest illegal populations (estimated, no one really knows), four have minimum wage rates higher than North Carolina. The fifth is Texas, which many would argue is a magnet for illegals, regardless of its minimum wage, because of its proximity to Mexico. Ten million illegal immigrants live in the United States, although some estimates put that number at 20 million. They come to escape extreme poverty and poor living conditions. They come to America to work, and many send money back home to their families. North Carolina’s illegal immigrant population is estimated at 400,000- 600,000. They come here because of the generous Medicaid benefits, a plethora of social services, schools for their children, easy drivers’ license requirements, lax voting laws, and most importantly, jobs. Most illegals fill the lowest paying jobs the market has to offer. Who benefits when the pay for these jobs is raised? The workers at the bottom of the pay scale, and a great many of them are illegal immigrants. Not only would the illegal immigrant workforce benefit immediately, but, since North Carolina would be offering the highest minimum wage in the region, the $6.15 starting pay rate would be a magnet for illegals to choose North Carolina as their new, albeit illegal, home. Last year the legislature proposed offering in-state tuition to illegal immigrants. Now these same legislators want to raise the minimum wage for jobs that would most benefit illegals. Why does the leadership in the General Assembly continue to want to provide more and more benefits to people who are here illegally — all paid at taxpayers’ expense? When low skilled illegal workers flood the workplace, the value of all low skilled workers is diminished — it hurts American workers. A minimum wage keeps rates artificially low, and since there are more workers than jobs available, unemployment goes up. When unemployment goes up, there is more demand for social services and welfare. Until meaningful immigration reforms are established, making North Carolina more attractive to illegal workers, by raising the minimum wage, is bad public and economic policy.Last printed 15 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 16 Link – Social ServicesGiving illegal immigrants access to social services would cause 100 million more immigrants Rector, Senior Research Fellow in Domestic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, 06 (Robert E., "Importing Poverty: Immigration and Poverty in the United States: A Book of Charts" http://www.heritage.org/research/immigration/sr9.cfm) [Charlie Stephens]The U.S. offers enormous economic opportunities and societal benefits. Hundreds of millions more people would immigrate to the U.S. if they had the opportunity. Given this context, the U.S. must be selective in its immigration policy. Policymakers must ensure that the interaction of welfare and immigration does not expand the welfare-dependent population, thereby hindering rather than helping immigrants and imposing large costs on American society.Social services attract illegal immigrants Malanga, 2006 (Steven, How Unskilled Immigrants Hurt Our Economy,” City Journal, http://www.city- journal.org/html/16_3_immigrants_economy.html ) [Charlie Stephens] Immigration's bottom line has shifted so sharply that in a high-immigration state like California, native-born residents are paying up to ten times more in state and local taxes than immigrants generate in economic benefits. Moreover, the cost is only likely to grow as the foreign-born population - which has already mushroomed from about 9 percent of the U.S. population when the NAS studies were done in the late 1990s to about 12 percent today – keeps growing. And citizens in more and more places will feel the bite, as immigrants move beyond their traditional settling places. From 1990 to 2005, the number of states in which immigrants make up at least 5 percent of the population nearly doubled from 17 to 29, with states like Arkansas, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Georgia seeing the most growth. This sharp turnaround since the 1970s, when immigrants were less likely to be using the social programs of the Great Society than the native-born population, says Harvard economist Borjas, suggests that welfare and other social programs are a magnet drawing certain types of immigrants - nonworking women, children, and the elderly - and keeping them here when they run into difficulty. Almost certainly, immigrants' participation in our social welfare programs will increase over time, because so many are destined to struggle in our workforce. Despite our cherished view of immigrants as rapidly climbing the economic ladder, more and more of the new arrivals and their children face a lifetime of economic disadvantage, because they arrive here with low levels of education and with few work skills—shortcomings not easily overcome."Last printed 16 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 17 Link – Social ServicesImmigrants see welfare benefits as an economic form of income and migrate to obtain it Cebula and Koch, Department of Economic at Emory, 89 (Richard J. Cebula and James V. Koch, They are both from the department of Economics at Emory University http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdf?vid=2&hid=105&sid=22898449-bd6b-4a42-b5e1-d2d92a103ade%40sessionmgr111)Given the existence of enormous geographic welfare differentials in the United States, it would seem reasonable to inqake:'Why should welfare differentials thusly affect migration of the poor?' In response to this question, Brehm and Saving (1964: 1003) argue that'... the demand for government assistance programs . may be looked upon as a special case of the demand for leisure ....' After a theoretical and empirical analysis, Brehm and Saving (1964: 1018) conclude that welfare'... recipients are like the remainder of consumers in that they react to economic incentives.' Traditionally, the migration literature has argued that income differentials are to be viewed as a critical determinant of location decisions. What Brehm and Saving (1964) are suggesting is that, at least for wouldbe or actual welfare recipients, welfare benefits are an extension of or form of income; hence, given that there exist large geographic welfare differentials in the United States, we would expect wouldbe or actual welfare recipients to respond to such differentials, ceteris paribus. In point of fact, much of the literature dealing with migration and welfare either implicitly or explicitly takes the view that welfare is seen by the poor as being a form of income per se or as being a form of longterm actual or potential unemployment compensation. In any event, it follows that, ceteris paribus, areas with higher welfare benefits are likely to be more attractive to poor migrants than areas with lower welfare benefits. Last printed 17 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 18 Link – Education Current status of the American education system is preventing oversee immigration Mazzarol and Soutar, graduates of the school of management at UWA, 02 (Tim Mazzarol and Geoffrey N. Soutar 2002, http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb? index=0&did=209677251&SrchMode=1&sid=1&Fmt=4&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=124836256 6&clientId=4347 ) Why do students choose to study overseas? Demand for education, particularly higher education, has traditionally been driven by expectations of its ability to raise the economic and social status of the graduate. For people in less developed countries, limited access to education in their own countries led to a significant rise in the number of international students studying overseas. Between 1960 and 1970, the average growth in international student flows was around 9 per cent, and continued at about 6 per cent from 1970 to 1980 (Hughes, 1988). While there is some evidence of a slowing in the overall flow of international students during the 1980s and 1990s (Kemp, 1995), a global industry has been created. The global pattern of international student flows may be explained by a combination of "push and pull" factors that encourage students to study overseas. "Push" factors operate within the source country and initiate a student's decision to undertake international study. "Pull" factors operate within a host country to make that country relatively attractive to international students. Some of these factors are inherent in the source country, some in the host country and others in the students themselves. A "push-pull" model of international education flows Many factors influence the demand for international education. A lack of access to higher education among many countries in Asia and Africa has been a key driver for much of the student flow that has taken place over the second half of the twentieth century. Historical or colonial links between host and home countries have played an important role in determining the direction of much of the international student flow. Other factors influencing the selection of a country study destination have been a commonality of language, the availability of science or technology-based programs and the geographic proximity of the home and host countries. In addition, perceptions of the quality of the tertiary education system available in the home country; the relative wealth of the home country population and the GNP growth rate in the home country all have an impact (Lee and Tan, 1984). Agarwal and Winkler (1985) studied the demand for an international education in the USA among students from 15 developing countries throughout the post- Second World War era. They found the proportion of international students seeking to undertake higher education in the USA had declined for most countries in later years. While noting that international student flows had risen strongly since the 1950s, the later slow down was linked to the rising cost of a US university education and improvements in higher education opportunities in source countries. Their study suggested the principal flow drivers were per capita income in the home country, the price or cost of education, the education opportunities available in the home country and the expected benefits of studying abroad. Last printed 18 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 19 Link – Health careHealth coverage incentivize illegal immigration Birkey, 9 (Andy, journalist with a degree in sociology and urban studies, Minnesota Independent, “Bachmann: Children’s health insurance a “magnet” for “illegal aliens””March 21, 2009, quoting Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann, http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/article/2009/03/18/bachmann-children%E2%80%99s-health- insurance-%E2%80%9Cmagnet%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%9Cillegal-aliens%E2%80%9D.html?print=1) Minnesota’s most outspoken member of Congress, Republican Michele Bachmann, took to the House floor Monday evening to lambaste Democrats on everything from gay marriage and abortion to taxes, immigration and Mountain Dew. At one point she said the State Childrens Health Insurance Program, recently reauthorized by Congress, would be a “magnet” for “illegal aliens.” Bachmann: “[B]ecause now President Obama even voted for the SCHIP bill, which we all know will now for the first time swing the door wide open for illegal aliens. I know one thing: The people in my district are not interested in paying for the health care for illegal aliens that are coming across our border to be yet one more magnet to bring people in that should come here legally.” On taxes and Mountain Dew: “Congress just had a sugar high. It’s as though every member of Congress just ingested a 24-pack of Mountain Dew and said, ‘Hallelujah. I’m on a sugar high. We’re going to spend money, and we’re going to rev this economy up.’ Well, I’m telling you, if you had a 24-pack of Mountain Dew, you would not only be on a sugar high, you would be zooming, but you would crash. And that’s about what we are going to be seeing. That crash is called taxes, Mr. Speaker. And the American people haven’t seen anything yet when they open up their tax bills.” On the French Revolution: “I know these Minnesota accents are a little tough to get through, but I also want to mention, just for point of reference, I am a federal tax attorney. That’s my background. That’s what I do. Taxes are us. “But the Obama administration has taken a completely different view. They have taken the view of the French Revolution, which is to tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend. And now they have even taken another cue from them — off with their heads.Last printed 19 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 20 Impact – Turns the CaseImmigration crowds out social services – turns case Rector 06 - Senior Research Fellow in Domestic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. [Robert E., "Importing Poverty: Immigration and Poverty in the United States: A Book of Charts" http://www.heritage.org/research/immigration/sr9.cfm]Because immigrants have comparatively low education levels, they have a high propensity to be poor and thus to receive welfare benefits. The fiscal impact of this is somewhat offset by the fact that illegal immigrants, who constitute around a third of all immigrants, are ineligible for most welfare programs. Welfare benefits are only part of the costs that low-skill immigrants impose on government. The National Academy of Sciences estimated that, on average, each immigrant without a high school education creates a net cost to gov ernment (i.e., benefits received minus taxes paid) of $89,000 over the course of his or her lifetime. The net cost to government of low- skill immigrants is so large that even when the projected taxes and benefits of the immigrant’s descendents over the next 300 years are added into the calculation, the long-term net present value to the govern ment of immigrants without a high school education remains negative.[20]Illegal immigration increases demand for education and healthcare services – turns case Federation for American Immigration Reform 05 ["Illegal Immigration is a Crime" http://www.fairus.org/site/News2? page=NewsArticle&id=16663&security=1601&news_iv_ctrl=1007] Apologists for illegal immigration try to paint it as a victimless crime, but the fact is that illegal immigration causes substantial harm to American citizens and legal immigrants, particularly those in the most vulnerable sectors of our population — the poor, minorities, and children. Illegal immigration causes an enormous drain on public funds. The seminal study of the costs of immigration by the National Academy of Sciences found that the taxes paid by immigrants do not begin to cover the cost of services received by them. The quality of education, health care and other services for Americans are undermined by the needs of endless numbers of poor, unskilled illegal entrants. Additionally, job competition by waves of illegal immigrants desperate for any job unfairly depresses the wages and working conditions offered to American workers, hitting hardest at minority workers and those without high school degrees.Immigration increases poverty – overloads services turning case Meese and Spalding, Chairman of the CLJS and Director of Simon Center for American Studies, 07 (Edwin Meese III and Mathew Spalding Ph.D. Chairman of the Center for Legal and Judicial Studies and Director of B. Kenneth Simon Center for American Studies. May 10, 2007, “Where We Stand: Essential Requirements for Immigration Reform,” http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/bg2034.cfm) Government provides a generous system of benefits and services to both the working and the non-working poor. While government continues its massive efforts to reduce overall poverty, immigration policy in the United States tends to produce results in the opposite direction, increasing rather than decreasing the poverty problem. Immigrants with low skill levels have a high probability of poverty and of receiving benefits and services that drive up governmental welfare, health, social service, and education costs.Last printed 20 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 21 Impact – Turns Healthcare Illegal immigrants hurt the healthcare system, take jobs, and smuggle drugs Associated Content 1/24/08; “Effect of Illegal Immigration on America” Business & Finance Section, http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/556869/effects_of_illegal_immigration_on_america.html?cat=17My family and I came to America as illegal immigrants. We came here without Visa or green card as with many people I know for better life, education, job, and environment. My parents had to work under cold eyes of their fellow workers for two years in which we paid tax and obtained a visa. After those harsh two years, we became legal immigrants of America. I have been an illegal immigrant once and I know better than anyone the hard-work and time that illegal immigrants have to spend under the harsh eyes of the fellow neighbors and colleagues. I never understood why we had to be so hated. For this reason, I have decided that I wanted to find out that reason. After days of research, I understand that reason. Illegal immigration does hurt America. First, illegal immigration has detrimental effects on the quality of healthcare on America. According to Rand study, "undocumented immigrants are younger and healthier, and they use the health-care system less often. The study estimates that undocumented immigrants ages 18 to 64 cost the health system about $6.5 billion a year in 2000 dollars. The cost to taxpayers is about $1 billion in 2000 dollars, or $11 per household." (Perkes) Thus, illegal immigration has been shown to cause some medical consequences including importation of diseases such as polio, plague, dengue fever, drug-resistant tuberculosis, the chagas disease, and others, which are often described to be serious according to World Net Daily.Next, illegal immigration has various effects on economy of America. According to Borjas, illegal immigrants work for far less than average American citizen. For that reason, illegal immigrants are favored by business owners, since business owners can operate their business for far less than hiring to do the same work by the American citizen. The reason that illegal immigrants work for less is because illegal immigrants do not have to pay tax, so the minimum wage law does not apply to them. Also, the illegal immigrants will do any job that they can find, and often they do not have the education to do any high paying jobs. So, the poor who will do any job that they can find, even minimum wage jobs, will have trouble finding jobs due to business owners who will hire illegal immigrants to save the money. Illegal immigration is also connected with many illegal activities which are harmful to the United States. First, according to Olga R. Rodriguez, "Mexican traffickers supplied 77% of the cocaine, 53% of the methamphetamine and approximately 50% of the heroin that enters the U.S." So, the illegal immigrants, who are largely Mexican, are connected with most of trafficking of drugs which are connected with many of the illegal activities that go on in the United States. Also, according to a Maldon Institute report, MS 13 "appears to be in control of much of the Mexican border and, in addition to its smuggling and contraband rackets, the gang collects money from illegal immigrants that it helps [move] across the border into the United States. Its members have committed murders, severing limbs, assault, robbery, and rape and are protected by international law with El Salvadore." (Domash)In conclusion, the illegal immigration really does hurt America. I was actually relieved that what my family did does not have any grave effects on America. I think that illegal immigration is bad, but I still think that the illegal immigrants are human that deserve what we all have, especially the rights we have here in America. They also should be given a chance to live in America.Last printed 21 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 22 Impact Module – EconomyIllegal immigration devastate the economy– low wages and competing jobs American Chronicle 08 (Dave Gibson, American Chronicle, 6-11-08, “Jobs American’s Won’t Do?” http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/64701) The federal indictment read: "It was part of the conspiracy for Peabody Corp. to systematically hire citizens of Mexico and other countries who had illegally entered into the United States for purposes of employment." The Peabody Corporation operated eight trawlers used for scallop fishing. The U.S. Attorney´s sought the surrender of $6.9 million, which amounted to the profits Peabody made during the period in question. We have been constantly told by the open borders crowd that illegal aliens only do dirty low-wage jobs such as housekeeping, landscaping, and crop-picking. We have also been told that illegal aliens do not take jobs away from Americans because no American wants to do those very menial jobs. This indictment of the Peabody Corp. is a great example of just how hollow that argument really is. The fact is that illegal aliens do take jobs away from Americans. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average take home pay for a commercial fisherman is $29,000 annually. Additionally, I have been informed by some who work in this industry, that official figure is on the low-end. The U.S. Health and Human Services agency considers the poverty line for a family of four to be $20,650 and for one person to be $10,210. While it may be hard to imagine living on either of those incomes with their respective situations, it is easy to conclude that a take-home salary of $29,000 would be welcomed by many working-class Americans. The Peabody family has been able to pocket $7 million over the last few years because they have imported Third World laborers to work on their boats. They have basically eliminated their payroll. Unfortunately, they are not alone. Greedy employers all across this nation are hiring illegal aliens to provide them with the kind of dirt cheap labor on which Americans simply cannot support their families. It is impossible for American workers to compete with Third World labor.Failure to address econ problems is the root cause of wars Mead 09 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy, 2-4-09, “Only Makes You Stronger,” http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2) Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in these societies are often less established and more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than more established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads-- but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power . If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight. Last printed 22 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 23 Impact Ext – EconomyEconomy is drained by immigration Navarrette, The American Resistance, 03 (Ruben Navarrette Jr. The American Resistance, March 26, 2003, http://www.theamericanresistance.com/issues/economic_costs.html) Between 40 and 50 percent of wage-loss among low-skilled Americans is due to the in-migration of low-skilled workers. Many American workers lose their jobs through unfair competition. An estimated 1,880,000 American workers are displaced from their jobs every year by immigration and the cost for providing welfare and assistance to these Americans is over $15 billion a year - FAIR research. Immigration is a net drain on the economy; corporate interests reap the benefits of cheap labor, while taxpayers pay the infrastructural cost. FAIR research shows "the net annual cost of immigration has been estimated at between $67 and $87 billion a year. The National Academy of Sciences found that the net fiscal drain on American taxpayers is between $166 and $226 a year per native household. Even studies claiming some modest overall gain for the economy from immigration ($1 to $10 billion a year) have found that it is outweighed by the fiscal cost ($15 to $20 billion a year) to native taxpayers." $60 billion dollars are earned by illegal aliens in the U.S. each year. One of Mexico's largest revenue streams (after exports and oil sales) consists of money sent home by legal immigrants and illegal aliens working in the U.S. Economists say this will help Mexico reduce its $17.8 billion defecit and may bolster the peso. $10 billion dollars are sent back to Mexico annually, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, reported in an Associated Press article, up $800 million from the previous year. ($9 billion dollars were previously sent back annually, according to a September 25, 2002 NPR report). That figure equals what Mexico earns annually from tourism. This massive transfer of wealth from America - essentially from America's displaced working poor - goes directly to Mexico.Number 1 issue is job creation – immigrants hurt the economy Niolet, The Hotline Obsever, 08 (Charlotte Niolet, The Hotline Writer, November 3, 2008, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T7002350166&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T7002350175& cisb=22_T7002350174&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8295&docNo=6 Lexis) Topics that dominated in the GOP primary - illegal immigration, road construction, inefficiency and corruption" in state gov't - "still have their place" in Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory's (R) bid against LG Bev Perdue (D). "But it's the ailing economy, along with job creation, that has dominated McCrory's campaign rhetoric since before public school students went back to class this year." Pol strategist Brad Cone: "McCrory has benefited tremendously from his positioning on the issues. Even before the financial meltdown, (polls showed) the number one issue was jobs and the economy." Last printed 23 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 24 Impact Ext – Economy ImpactsContinued economic downturn will lead to major war Green and Schrage 09 (Michael Green, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven Schrage, the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee. Asia Times. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html) Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank and the US Central Intelligence Agency are just beginning to contemplate the ramifications for international stability if there is not a recovery in the next year. For the most part, the focus has been on fragile states such as some in Eastern Europe. However, the Great Depression taught us that a downward global economic spiral can even have jarring impacts on great powers. It is no mere coincidence that the last great global economic downturn was followed by the most destructive war in human history. In the 1930s, economic desperation helped fuel autocratic regimes and protectionism in a downward economic-security death spiral that engulfed the world in conflict. This spiral was aided by the preoccupation of the United States and other leading nations with economic troubles at home and insufficient attention to working with other powers to maintain stability abroad. Today's challenges are different, yet 1933's London Economic Conference, which failed to stop the drift toward deeper depression and world war, should be a cautionary tale for leaders heading to next month's London Group of 20 (G-20) meeting. There is no question the US must urgently act to address banking issues and to restart its economy. But the lessons of the past suggest that we will also have to keep an eye on those fragile threads in the international system that could begin to unravel if the financial crisis is not reversed early in the Barack Obama administration and realize that economics and security are intertwined in most of the critical challenges we face. A disillusioned rising power? Four areas in Asia merit particular attention, although so far the current financial crisis has not changed Asia's fundamental strategic picture. China is not replacing the US as regional hegemon, since the leadership in Beijing is too nervous about the political implications of the financial crisis at home to actually play a leading role in solving it internationally. Predictions that the US will be brought to its knees because China is the leading holder of US debt often miss key points. China's currency controls and full employment/export-oriented growth strategy give Beijing few choices other than buying US Treasury bills or harming its own economy. Rather than creating new rules or institutions in international finance, or reorienting the Chinese economy to generate greater long-term consumer demand at home, Chinese leaders are desperately clinging to the status quo (though Beijing deserves credit for short- term efforts to stimulate economic growth). The greater danger with China is not an eclipsing of US leadership, but instead the kind of shift in strategic orientation that happened to Japan after the Great Depression. Japan was arguably not a revisionist power before 1932 and sought instead to converge with the global economy through open trade and adoption of the gold standard. The worldwide depression and protectionism of the 1930s devastated the newly exposed Japanese economy and contributed directly to militaristic and autarkic policies in Asia as the Japanese people reacted against what counted for globalization at the time. China today is similarly converging with the global economy, and many experts believe China needs at least 8% annual growth to sustain social stability. Realistic growth predictions for 2009 are closer to 5%. Veteran China hands were watching closely when millions of migrant workers returned to work after the Lunar New Year holiday last month to find factories closed and jobs gone. There were pockets of protests, but nationwide unrest seems unlikely this year, and Chinese leaders are working around the clock to ensure that it does not happen next year either. However, the economic slowdown has only just begun and nobody is certain how it will impact the social contract in China between the ruling communist party and the 1.3 billion Chinese who have come to see President Hu Jintao's call for "harmonious society" as inextricably linked to his promise of "peaceful development". If the Japanese example is any precedent, a sustained economic slowdown has the potential to open a dangerous path from economic nationalism to strategic revisionism in China too. Dangerous states It is noteworthy that North Korea, Myanmar and Iran have all intensified their defiance in the wake of the financial crisis, which has distracted the world's leading nations, limited their moral authority and sown potential discord. With Beijing worried about the potential impact of North Korean belligerence or instability on Chinese internal stability, and leaders in Japan and South Korea under siege in parliament because of the collapse of their stock markets, leaders in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang have grown increasingly boisterous about their country's claims to great power status as a nuclear weapons state. The junta in Myanmar has chosen this moment to arrest hundreds of political dissidents and thumb its nose at fellow members of the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Iran continues its nuclear program while exploiting differences between the US, UK and France (or the P-3 group) and China and Russia - differences that could become more pronounced if economic friction with Beijing or Russia crowds out cooperation or if Western European governments grow nervous about sanctions as a tool of policy. It is possible that the economic downturn will make these dangerous states more pliable because of falling fuel prices (Iran) and greater need for foreign aid (North Korea and Myanmar), but that may depend on the extent that authoritarian leaders care about the well-being of their people or face internal political pressures linked to the economy. So far, there is little evidence to suggest either and much evidence to suggest these dangerous states see an opportunity to advance their asymmetrical advantages against the international system. Challenges to the democratic model The trend in East Asia has been for developing economies to steadily embrace democracy and the rule of law in order to sustain their national success. But to thrive, new democracies also have to deliver basic economic growth. The economic crisis has hit democracies hard, with Japanese Prime Minister Aso Taro's approval collapsing to single digits in the polls and South Korea's Lee Myung-bak and Taiwan's Ma Ying Jeou doing only a little better (and the collapse in Taiwan's exports - particularly to China - is sure to undermine Ma's argument that a more accommodating stance toward Beijing will bring economic benefits to Taiwan). Thailand's new coalition government has an uncertain future after two years of post-coup drift and now economic crisis. The string of old and new democracies in East Asia has helped to anchor US relations with China and to maintain what former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice once called a "balance of power that favors freedom". A reversal of the democratic expansion of the past two decades would not only impact the global balance of power but also increase the potential number of failed states, with all the attendant risk they bring from harboring terrorists to incubating pandemic diseases and trafficking in persons. It would also undermine the demonstration effect of liberal norms we are urging China to embrace at home. Protectionism The collapse of financial markets in 1929 was compounded by protectionist measures such as the Smoot-Hawley tariff act in 1932. Suddenly, the economic collapse became a zero-sum race for autarkic trading blocs that became a key cause of war. Today, the globalization of finance, services and manufacturing networks and the World Trade Organization (WTO) make such a rapid move to trading blocs unlikely. However, protectionism could still unravel the international system through other guises. Already, new spending packages around the world are providing support for certain industries that might be perceived by foreign competitors as unfair trade measures, potentially creating a "Smoot- Hawley 2.0" stimulus effect as governments race to prop up industries. "Buy American" conditionality in the US economic stimulus package earlier this year was watered down somewhat by the Obama administration, but it set a tempting precedent for other countries to put up barriers to close markets. Nations pushing the bounds of their trade commitments could overload the circuits of a system that can take two years to determine violations - more than enough time for a global meltdown.Last printed 24 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 25 Impact Ext – Economy Illegal immigration drains the economy C.A.I.R. Colorado Alliance for Immigration Reform, 2004; “Economic Costs of legal and illegal immigration” http://www.cairco.org/econ/econ.html The economic and social consequences of illegal immigration across the 1,940 mile long America- Mexico border are staggering. An average of 10,000 illegal aliens cross the border every day - over 3 million per year. A third will be caught and many of them immediately will try again. About half of those remaining will become permanent U.S. residents (3,500 per day). Currently there are an estimated 9 to 11 million illegals in the U.S., double the 1994 level. A quarter-million illegal aliens from the Middle-east currently live in the U.S, and a growing number are entering by crossing the Mexican border. FAIR research suggests that "between 40 and 50 percent of wage-loss among low-skilled Americans is due to the immigration of low-skilled workers. Some native workers lose not just wages but their jobs through immigrant competition. An estimated 1,880,000 American workers are displaced from their jobs every year by immigration; the cost for providing welfare and assistance to these Americans is over $15 billion a year." The National Research Council, part of the National Academy of Sciences, found in 1997 that the average immigrant without a high school education imposes a net fiscal burden on public coffers of $89,000 during the course of his or her lifetime. The average immigrant with only a high school education creates a lifetime fiscal burden of $31,000.8 80% of cocaine and 50% of heroin in the U.S. is smuggled across the border by Mexican nationals. Drug cartels spend a half-billion dollars per year bribing Mexico's corrupt generals and police officials, and armed confrontations between the Mexican army and U.S. Border Patrol agents are a real threat. There have been 118 documented incursions by the Mexican military over the last five years. Illegal aliens have cost billions of taxpayer-funded dollars for medical services. Dozens of hospitals in Texas, New Mexico Arizona, and California, have been forced to close or face bankruptcy because of federally-mandated programs requiring free emergency room services to illegal aliens. Taxpayers pay half-a-billion dollars per year incarcerating illegal alien criminals. Immigration is a net drain on the economy; corporate interests reap the benefits of cheap labor, while taxpayers pay the infrastructural cost. FAIR research shows "the net annual cost of immigration has been estimated at between $67 and $87 billion a year. The National Academy of Sciences found that the net fiscal drain on American taxpayers is between $166 and $226 a year per native household. Even studies claiming some modest overall gain for the economy from immigration ($1 to $10 billion a year) have found that it is outweighed by the fiscal cost ($15 to $20 billion a year) to native taxpayers." "In the NAFTA era, a staggering 87 percent of Mexico's imports go to the United States, while Mexicans living in the United States send home more than $8 billion annually. Fox has said he considers his constituency to include the 22 million to 24 million Mexicans and Mexican-Americans in the United States. Mexican candidates now make campaign stops in U.S. cities like Los Angeles, Phoenix and Fresno, Calif." (Mexico's muddle, Ruben Navarrette Jr., March 26, 2003) For more information, see The Washington Times article and series Chaos along the border, October 6, 2002, the FAIR reports Immigration and the Economy, Immigration Lowers Wages for American Workers, and the article Record amount of remittances sent from US to Mexico. Last printed 25 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 26 Impact Module – Californian Economy (1/2)Curbing illegal immigration is key to saving California’s economy U.S. Rep. Elton Gallegly 7/6/04; “California’s biggest threat is illegal immigration” Illegal immigration, more than any other single factor, is crippling major segments of California's economy, from health care to higher education to jobs. That's why, regardless of the security concerns -- and there are many -- Schwarzenegger should not sign any bill granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. This is not a Republican vs. Democrat issue. Exit polls conducted during last year's recall showed that 39 percent of the recall voters identified themselves as Republican. Yet 70 percent told pollsters the license law that was then in effect should be repealed... A driver's license would be one more enticement. Instead of offering driver's licenses, we must remove the enticements we now offer. Anyone, whether here legally or not, should not be denied emergency care. But illegal immigrants use hospital emergency rooms for general care. As a result, 82 percent of the state's emergency rooms lost money in 2002, according to the California Medical Association... Illegal immigration also hurts our native working poor's ability to attain Section 8 housing. By state law, illegal immigrants are barred from Section 8 housing. But the law is not enforced. So illegal immigrants fill public housing while a several-generation U.S. mother lives in her car with three children because she's on a six-year waiting list. In California, illegal immigrants attend state universities at in-state tuition rates. That's grossly unfair to a legal high school student who moves out of California for a year, then returns to attend college. That student will pay $16,956 a year more than an illegal student -- who shouldn't be entitled to attend anyway... It's impossible to return California's economy to a solid footing without addressing illegal immigration. It's true that the federal government needs to step up enforcement, and I am working with my congressional colleagues to do so. But as long as we offer free health care, jobs, heavily subsidized higher education, subsidized housing and other enticements, illegal immigrants will risk life and limb to come here. For the health of our state's economy, Schwarzenegger should declare any future driver's license bill dead on arrival and begin reversing state laws and policies that serve as a lure to illegal immigrants.Last printed 26 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 27 Impact Module – Californian Economy (2/2)California’s economy is key to the U.S. economy James Saft 3/15/08; “Californians leading the way to consumer bust” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-rtrcol16.1.12909110.htmlLONDON — As it did when the housing bubble began to burst, California is leading the way in the next leg: a consumer bust. Squeezed by rising unemployment, inflation in food and energy costs and plunging home values, Californians are cutting back on spending. Besides causing woes for state and local government, the cutback is giving California's economy another knock and makes further job losses, home repossessions and banking problems more likely. The figures are pretty bad. The median home price has fallen by 29 percent in the year to March, according to the California Association of Realtors, and repossessions are increasing. Unemployment hit 6.2 percent in March, up 1.2 percentage points from the same month last year. But most important, in the 10 months to the end of April, sales tax receipts in California are actually down in absolute terms. Gasoline tax receipts are essentially flat. When you factor in that there would have been considerable inflation during the period, and that some essentials like gasoline would have risen sharply in cost, the picture is clear: Californians are tightening their belts. And California matters. It accounts for 13 percent of the U.S. economy. It was also where more than a third of the non-mainstream home loans, like subprime and Alt-A, were made in 2006 and 2007, making it very important to the health of the banking system. "California is big enough that it is going to drag a lot of the nation down with it," said Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a consultancy in Los Angeles. "You can't have collapsing consumer demand in California and not expect it to have an influence." Thornberg sees a recession in California being closer to the recession of the early 1990s in severity rather than the briefer recession after the Internet boom ended. But while California is not suffering from an industrial bust, as it did when aerospace was hit after the Berlin Wall came down, its consumers are poorly set to weather a recession. "People have racked up a phenomenal amount of debt, savings rates have been at zero and the piper has to be paid," Thornberg said. Vallejo, a city in Northern California, said last week that it would file for bankruptcy, prompted by rising costs and falling tax receipts due to the housing slump. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to unveil plans for $15 billion in bonds backed by lottery revenues to help plug a state budget hole. A lottery jackpot is just about what the state needs right now, though the odds seem equally remote. The downturn is clear, too, from company results. Nordstrom, the department store chain, reported last week that same-store sales fell 6.5 percent in the first quarter, dragged down in part by lower numbers of shoppers visiting its stores in California, a state that accounts for about a third of its turnover. Starbucks blamed some of its recent disappointing performance on a new unwillingness among coffee drinkers in California and South Florida to pay top dollar for stimulants. At the lower end of the scale, Jack in the Box, the fast-food chain, said Wednesday that it had seen softer sales at restaurants in California. One particular area of concern is the way in which California's faltering economy and rising unemployment interact with falling home values to prompt greater rates of mortgage defaults. This could hit banks with exposure to California in their mortgage loan portfolios, not to mention Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "There is a very strong relationship between delinquencies and the coupling of job losses with falling home prices," Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Derek Chen of Barclays Capital in New York wrote in a note to clients. For example, in the areas of Modesto, Stockton and Merced, the unemployment rates are above 10 percent while more than 60 percent of loans are close to being underwater, or larger than the value of the house. Serious delinquencies in those areas are above 18 percent, while the national average is 3.6 percent, according to Barclays. But beyond the implications for banks, California can really be seen as the testing ground for what the U.S. consumer looks like in coming years, and how he or she manages. If, somehow, the move from spending to savings can be done gradually, the downturn in the United States may be gentle. If it happens quickly, watch out.Last printed 27 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 28 Impact Ext- California Key to US Economy California’s economy is key- GDP, tadx revenue, retail sales Williams, 6-29 (Juliet, “California's Ailing Economy Could Prolong US Recession” June 29, 2009, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/29/californias-ailing-econom_n_222616.html)Virtually all states are suffering in the recession, some worse than California. But none has the economic horsepower of the world's eighth-largest economy, home to one in eight Americans. California accounts for 12 percent of the nation's gross domestic product and the largest share of retail sales of any state. It also sends far more in tax revenue to the federal government than it receives _ giving a dollar for every 80 cents it gets back _ which means Californians are keeping social programs afloat across the country. While the deficit only affects the state, California's deepening economic malaise could make it harder for the entire nation's economy to recover. When the state stumbles, its sheer size _ 38.3 million people _ creates fallout for businesses from Texas to Michigan. "California is the key catalyst for U.S. retail sales, and if California falls further you will see the U.S. economy suffer significantly," said retail consultant Burt P. Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group. He warned of more bankruptcies of national retail chains and brand suppliers.Last printed 28 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 29 Impact Ext- Immigration hurts California’s economy California having budget issues to deal with immigration George Skelton, writer for the LA Times, June 29, 2009, To fix the budget, first fix the state, LA Times, http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-cap29-2009jun29,0,4866723.columnFrom Sacramento -- Once again, Capitol politicians are fighting over how to fix the chronically bleeding state budget . And again, the answer should be clear: It's unfixable. It will remain unfixable until California's system of governance is pulled apart and overhauled. Yes, illegal immigration is a drain on the state treasury -- maybe responsible for a fifth or more of the $24-billion deficit -- but there's little Sacramento can do about that. Washington sets most of the rules.Last printed 29 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 30 Impact – Econ key to HegEcon Collapse Destroys Heg Champion, Share International, 03 (Scott Champion, Share International, July 2003, http://shareno.net/dollarcollapse.htm) A collapsing US stock market would almost certainly usher in a period of deflation for the American economy. Recent statements by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and New York ‘Fed’ governor Bernacke make clear that the Fed is concerned about deflation and stands ready to print an unlimited supply of dollars to fight this eventuality. These statements are unprecedented in the 90-year history of the US Federal Reserve Bank and are tantamount to a declaration that they stand willing to destroy the value of the dollar in the event of a serious crisis. Today, many forces are coming together that could lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Among these are its oversupply, low interest rates, the need to fight deflation, continuing stock-market declines, and a potential derivatives meltdown [see Share International May 1990] It is highly likely that in the not-too-distant future all of these factors will come into play simultaneously. In addition, many of the world’s financiers, central bankers, and government officials cannot be pleased with the economic and foreign policies of the Bush administration. They well know that the continued recycling of capital into US assets serves, at least in part, to allow the US to dominate the world. If the people who control the world’s capital were to decide, for whatever reason, to cease buying Treasury securities and to liquidate those they own, the dollar would collapse and the US would experience an unprecedented economic shock. Were this to happen, the world would witness the end of American hegemony.War causes poverty, decreases human rights and democracy, and diverts resources from development – turns case Arab NGO Network for Development 06 (Arab NGO Network for Development, July 24, 2006, “Update From A Lebanon Under Unjustified Israeli War Rage,” http://www.samidoun.org/?q=node/31 ) The Global Call to Action against Poverty (GCAP) is circulating a draft petition to be signed by the willing members to express their solidarity with the Lebanese people and to condemn any military action in solving conflicts. The Global Call to Action Against Poverty (GCAP), is an alliance formed by NGOs, international networks, social movements, trade unions, women's organizations, faith based groups and other civil society actors working at the international, regional and national levels to eradicate poverty. It is worth noting that in March 2006, GCAP met in Beirut and issued a declaration, which highlights the way war increases poverty: “Armed conflicts, wars and their consequences destroy livelihoods, undermine democratic processes and human rights-including the right to self-determination- and divert resources that should be directed to development and social equity. Investing in human security best prevents conflicts and builds peace. The protection of people is a universal obligation of all states and international democratic institutions. Growing militarism and rearmament reduces political space and public accountability of states, diverts development financing and ultimately, renders lasting peace elusive and unrealizable. War and conflict disproportionately affect the security, dignity and future of women and children".Last printed 30 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 31 Impact Module – Warming (1/2)Immigration ensures the US can’t reduce CO2 emissions CAIR, 7 (Colorado allegiance for immigration reform, Mass Immigration's Impact on U.S. Energy Usage, 9- 17-2007, http://www.cairco.org/energy/energy.html) Increased population, not increased consumption, is almost entirely responsible for the one-third increase in U.S. energy usage since 1973. • In 2000 the U.S. used over 30 percent more energy than in 1973. But this is not because individuals are using more energy; it's entirely because there are more people. • Per capita motor gasoline consumption in the U.S. was virtually unchanged between 1974 and 2000 despite major improvements in the fuel efficiency of new vehicles. Per capita motor gasoline consumption was 471 gallons in 1974 and 463 gallons in 2000. Over this same time period the fuel efficiency of the U.S. passenger car fleet increased from 13.6 miles per gallon (mpg) to 21.4 mpg and the fuel efficiency of the light truck fleet (including vans and SUVs) increased from 11.0 to 17.1 mpg. • Immigration is the cause of 40 percent of U.S. population growth in the last quarter century and has been directly responsible for one-third of the increase in energy usage during that period. • Residential energy use has increased by 34 percent since 1973. Almost all of that entire increase was due to population growth. • "From 1970 to 2000, U.S. population growth was related to approximately 87% of the increase in total U.S. primary energy consumption. To date, since less than 10 percent of U.S. energy supply is derived from renewable sources, the increasing number of American energy consumers is pushing the country down an ever-more precarious, polluting path of dependency on fossil fuels. Not only will global oil and gas reserves be exhausted for all intents within this century, but their exploitation is altering the earth's atmospheric composition and probably its very climate."2 • The U.S. won't be able to meet emission-reductions goals unless we slow down immigration-driven population growth . Assuming that U.S. immigration levels continue at their current rate, meeting the Kyoto Protocol goals will require that per capita energy consumption in the year 2012 be reduced by 28 percent from the 2000 level. This would require major lifestyle changes for Americans and cause serious economic dislocations. • If immigration continues at current high levels, the U.S. will not be able to achieve any meaningful reductions in carbon dioxide emissions without serious economic and social consequences for American citizens. Warming is real, anthropogenic, and causes extinction Deibel, 07 (Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. “Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft”, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today) Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It is the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic warming is occurring. “ In legitimate scientific circles,” writes Elizabeth Kolbert, “ it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the fundamentals of global warming.” Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly, as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts “brutal droughts, floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century”; climate change could “literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria”; “glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected, and…worldwide, plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago”; “rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes”; “NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a close second”; “Earth’s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year” as disease spreads; “widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidad…killed broad swaths of corals” due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. “The world is slowly disintegrating,” concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. “They call it climate change…but we just call it breaking up.” From the founding of the first cities some 6,000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm, and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century, so there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant global warming; the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted above show, we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms, spread of disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species extinction , and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a [continues…no text removed]Last printed 31 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 32 Impact Module – Warming (2/2)[continues…no text removed] warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolina’s outer banks, swamp the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe warming could cost 13-26 percent of GDP. But the most frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming, based on positive feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. Past ice age transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures, took place in just decades, even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that “humankind’s continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earth’s climate and humanity’s life support system. At worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University, “we’re just going to burn everything up; we’re going to heat the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse.” During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but possibly end life on this planet. Global warming is the post-Cold War era’s equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and considerably better supported scientifically. Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame. It is a threat not only to the security and prosperity to the United States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.Last printed 32 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 33 Ext- Immigration  WarmingIllegal immigration causes warming since immigrants emit more CO2 in the US Kolankiewicz and Camarota, 8 (Leon Kolankiewicz- environmental scientist and national natural resources planner. He has a B.S. in forestry and wildlife management an M.S. in environmental planning, and Steven A. Camarota- Ph.D. from the University of Virginia in public policy analysis, Center for Immigration Studies “Immigration to the United States and World-Wide Greenhouse Gas Emissions” August 2008, http://www.cis.org/GreenhouseGasEmissions)Assuming no change in U.S. immigration policy, 30 million new legal and illegal immigrants are likely to settle in the United States in the next 20 years. 19 Primarily because of immigration (new immigrants plus their descendents), the U.S. population is projected to grow by more than 20 percent over this time period, or by at least 60 million.20 Even if per capita CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 20 percent in the United States over the next 20 years, total annual U.S. CO 2 emissions would remain the same . Total emissions are what matters for the global environment. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must include some understanding of how immigration and population growth contribute to greenhouse gas emissions . Overall, our findings indicate that the average immigrant (legal or illegal) in the United States produces somewhat less CO2 than the average native-born American. However, immigrants in the United States produce about four times more CO 2 in the United States as they would have in their countries of origin. The estimated 637 metric tons of CO 2 U.S. immigrants produce is 482 million tons more than they would have produced had they remained in their home countries. This 482 million ton increase represents about 5 percent of the increase in annual world-wide CO2 emissions since 1980. These figures do not include the impact of children born to immigrants in the United States. If they were included, the impact would be even higher. When it comes to dealing with global warming, environmentalists in the United States have generally chosen to adopt what might be described as piecemeal efforts to oppose new sources of fossil fuel-based energy, such as the construction of new coal-fired power plants. They have also supported energy conservation/efficiency (e.g., compact fluorescent light bulbs) and more use of renewable sources like wind and solar energy . But they have assiduously avoided the underlying issue of growing energy demand driven by immigration-fueled population growth. In response to concerns over immigrant- induced population growth, some American environmentalists have even argued that it does not matter where on the Earth people live because the world’s environment is so interconnected. This analysis has shown that when it comes to CO 2 emissions it matters a great deal where people live . Per capita CO 2 emissions are dramatically higher in the United States than in almost every immigrant-sending country . Large-scale immigration to the United States therefore has enormous implications for world-wide CO 2 emissions. Some may be tempted to see this analysis as “blaming immigrants” for what are really America’s failures. It is certainly reasonable to argue that Americans could do much more to reduce per capita emissions. And it is certainly not our intention to imply that immigrants are particularly responsible for global warming. As we report in this study, immigrants produce somewhat less CO2 on average than native-born Americans. But to simply dismiss the large role that continuing high levels of immigration play in increasing U.S. and worldwide CO2 emissions is not only intellectually dishonest, it is also counter- productive. One must acknowledge a problem before a solution can be found. The effect of immigration is certainly not trivial. If immigrants in the United States were their own country, they would rank seventh in the world in annual CO 2 output, ahead of such countries as Canada, France, and Great Britain. Unless there is a change in immigration policy, 30 million (legal and illegal) immigrants are likely to settle in the United States over the next 20 years. One can still argue for high levels of immigration for any number of reasons. However, one cannot make the argument for high immigration without at least understanding what it means for global efforts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Some involved in the global warming issue have recognized immigration’s importance. Chief U.S. climate negotiator and special representative for the United States, Harlan Watson, has acknowledged high immigration to the United States is thwarting efforts to slow its rising GHG emissions. “It’s simple arithmetic,” said Watson. “If you look at mid-century, Europe will be at 1990 levels of population while ours will be nearing 60 percent above 1990 levels. So population does matter.”21 This research confirms Watson’s observation.Last printed 33 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 34 AT: We still emit CO21. Only stopping immigration solves- our CAIR evidence indicates that emission reductions are impossible with high immigration rates 2. Obama will ensure a transition to renewables- this means immigration is the only issue not addressed Uydess, 7-6 (Steve- educator and freelance writer, Earth 9-11“Green Progress Report: Obama at Five Months” http://earth911.com/blog/2009/07/06/green-progress-report-obama-at-five-months/)The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (also known as the stimulus package) is filled with a host of environmental measures. The bill contains more than $70 billion in funding and $20 billion in tax incentives intended to develop, promote and support a green economy. Some of the highlights include: $25 billion to improve the nation’s electricity grid and to improve efficiency in government buildings and low-cost housing $10 billion toward research into renewable sources of electricity and automobile efficiency $20 billion for public transportation and rail improvements, including the development of high-speed rail lines Nearly $10 billion for environmental cleanup projects and to support clean water access, especially in rural communities $6 billion for climate research and to promote the development of science and engineering jobs within the U.S. Action From the Other Green Branch Last week the House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act, a massive bill that is the first of its kind to seriously regulate greenhouse gas emissions. While the bill still needs to make it through a debeply divided Senate, it contains bold steps intended to address global warming. Too bold, or not bold enough, depends on whom you ask, but the ball is moving, and we may soon see Obama sign into law a bill containing some version of the following provisions: Most notable is the cap-and-trade system, which allows companies who emit fewer greenhouse gasses (GHG) to swap with those who do, even as the net allowable limit shrinks from year to year. Eventually, the economic and legal incentives to shift away from GHG will turn industries away from their use. The bill requires the U.S. to reduce its GHG emissions to 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. Several provisions within the 1,300-page bill are intended to steer public utilities toward the use of renewable energy, while others deal with improving the energy efficiency of buildings (the largest emitters of GHG in the U.S.). Taxpayers will bear some of the costs of this shift, but most provisions are not set to go into effect until 2012 when, hopefully, the current economic crisis will have passed. Executive and Cabinet Power President Obama and his Cabinet have also been busy issuing orders to address a host of policies, from auto emissions to federal land management. Here are some highlights from his various departments: In May, the Obama administration issues new fuel efficiency standards for autos sold in the U.S., starting in 2012. They are among the toughest ever set, but they will yield a savings of nearly 2 billion barrels of oil –and the GHG emissions from their combustion– over the lives of these vehicles. The Interior Department reversed a Bush administration decision to allow oil drilling near Arches and Canyonland National Parks and tabled plans for offshore drilling. They also reversed rules allowing mountaintop removal coal mines to dump their waste near streams and have slowed the process of permitting companies to extract oil shale, a costly and environmentally devastating process. Obama has signaled that he intends to regulate the emissions of power plants as well, but that may be covered in the Clean Energy Act, assuming it eventually finds its way to his desk. All of these actions are encouraging signs that this administration takes climate change and resource management seriously, and with the Kyoto Protocol set to run out in 2012, the U.S. may emerge as a leader in December, when the world’s nations convene in Copenhagen to develop a new climate policy.Last printed 34 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 35Last printed 35 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 36 AT: Other Countries1.The impact is linear- the more we remove emissions, the smaller the impact is2. The U.S. emits most of the world’s CO2 James E. Hansen, head of NASA Goddard Institute and professor of Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 2008 (Briefing before the Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, US House of Representatives. “Twenty years later: tipping points near on global warming,” http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf)The fossil industry maintains its strangle-hold on Washington via demagoguery, using China and other developing nations as scapegoats to rationalise inaction. In fact, we produced most of the excess carbon in the air today, and it is to our advantage as a nation to move smartly in developing ways to reduce emissions. As with the ozone problem, developing countries can be allowed limited extra time to reduce emissions. They will cooperate: they have much to lose from climate change and much to gain from clean air and reduced dependence on fossil fuels. We must establish fair agreements with other countries. However, our own tax and dividend should start immediately. We have much to gain from it as a nation, and other countries will copy our success. If necessary, import duties on products from uncooperative countries can level the playing field, with the import tax added to the dividend pool.3. We produce a quarter of the world’s emissions CTA, 9/29/2004, “Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated With Global Climate Change”, International Center for Technology Assessment, (http://www.icta.org/doc/global%20warming %20rpg%20update.pdf)Estimates of the cost of global warming used for this report are based only on U.S. emissions and the resulting domestic externalities. Obviously this narrow estimate of the costs of climate change ignores the significant impact of U.S. emissions on the rest of the world. The United States produces approximately a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, even though the country’s population is less than 5% of the world total. Automobiles and other gasoline-powered vehicles account for more than 21% of U.S. CO2 emissions5 and more than 17% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.6 If China, for example, with almost one quarter of the world’s population and already in the grip of a severe environmental pollution crisis, were to match the per capita gasoline usage of the United States, the implications for global warming would be catastrophic. Americans continue to waste energy and emit greenhouse gases as if there were no climatic or environmental costs. U.S. political leaders have failed to recognize the long-term implications and communicate with industry and the public in order to formulate responsible energy and transportation policies.Last printed 36 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 37 AT: ChinaChina will radically decrease emissions for many reasons Elizabeth C. Economy, C. V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, September/October 2007 (Foreign Affairs)In the view of China's leaders, however, damage to the environment itself is a secondary problem. Of greater concern to them are its indirect effects: the threat it poses to the continuation of the Chinese economic miracle and to public health, social stability, and the country's international reputation. Taken together, these challenges could undermine the authority of the Communist Party. China's leaders are worried about the environment's impact on the economy. Several studies conducted both inside and outside China estimate that environmental degradation and pollution cost the Chinese economy between 8 percent and 12 percent of GDP annually. The Chinese media frequently publish the results of studies on the impact of pollution on agriculture, industrial output, or public health: water pollution costs of $35.8 billion one year, air pollution costs of $27.5 billion another, and on and on with weather disasters ($26.5 billion), acid rain ($13.3 billion), desertification ($6 billion), or crop damage from soil pollution ($2.5 billion). The city of Chongqing, which sits on the banks of the Yangtze River, estimates that dealing with the effects of water pollution on its agriculture and public health costs as much as 4.3 percent of the city's annual gross product. Shanxi Province has watched its coal resources fuel the rest of the country while it pays the price in withered trees, contaminated air and water, and land subsidence. Local authorities there estimate the costs of environmental degradation and pollution at 10.9 percent of the province's annual gross product and have called on Beijing to compensate the province for its "contribution and sacrifice." China's Ministry of Public Health is also sounding the alarm with increasing urgency. In a survey of 30 cities and 78 counties released in the spring, the ministry blamed worsening air and water pollution for dramatic increases in the incidence of cancer throughout the country: a 19 percent rise in urban areas and a 23 percent rise in rural areas since 2005. One research institute affiliated with SEPA has put the total number of premature deaths in China caused by respiratory diseases related to air pollution at 400,000 a year. But this may be a conservative estimate: according to a joint research project by the World Bank and the Chinese government released this year, the total number of such deaths is 750,000 a year. (Beijing is said not to have wanted to release the latter figure for fear of inciting social unrest.) Less well documented but potentially even more devastating is the health impact of China's polluted water. Today, fully 190 million Chinese are sick from drinking contaminated water. All along China's major rivers, villages report skyrocketing rates of diarrheal diseases, cancer, tumors, leukemia, and stunted growth. Social unrest over these issues is rising. In the spring of 2006, China's top environmental official, Zhou Shengxian, announced that there had been 51,000 pollution-related protests in 2005, which amounts to almost 1,000 protests each week. Citizen complaints about the environment, expressed on official hotlines and in letters to local officials, are increasing at a rate of 30 percent a year; they will likely top 450,000 in 2007. But few of them are resolved satisfactorily, and so people throughout the country are increasingly taking to the streets. For several months in 2006, for example, the residents of six neighboring villages in Gansu Province held repeated protests against zinc and iron smelters that they believed were poisoning them. Fully half of the 4,000-5,000 villagers exhibited lead-related illnesses, ranging from vitamin D deficiency to neurological problems. Many pollution-related marches are relatively small and peaceful. But when such demonstrations fail, the protesters sometimes resort to violence. After trying for two years to get redress by petitioning local, provincial, and even central government officials for spoiled crops and poisoned air, in the spring of 2005, 30,000-40,000 villagers from Zhejiang Province swarmed 13 chemical plants, broke windows and overturned buses, attacked government officials, and torched police cars. The government sent in 10,000 members of the People's Armed Police in response. The plants were ordered to close down, and several environmental activists who attempted to monitor the plants' compliance with these orders were later arrested. China's leaders have generally managed to prevent -- if sometimes violently -- discontent over environmental issues from spreading across provincial boundaries or morphing into calls for broader political reform. In the face of such problems, China's leaders have recently injected a new urgency into their rhetoric concerning the need to protect the country's environment. On paper, this has translated into an aggressive strategy to increase investment in environmental protection, set ambitious targets for the reduction of pollution and energy intensity (the amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP), and introduce new environmentally friendly technologies. In 2005, Beijing set out a number of impressive targets for its next five-year plan: by 2010, it wants 10 percent of the nation's power to come from renewable energy sources, energy intensity to have been reduced by 20 percent and key pollutants such as sulfur dioxide by 10 percent, water consumption to have decreased by 30 percent, and investment in environmental protection to have increased from 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent of GDP. Premier Wen Jiabao has issued a stern warning to local officials to shut down some of the plants in the most energy-intensive industries -- power generation and aluminum, copper, steel, coke and coal, and cement production -- and to slow the growth of other industries by denying them tax breaks and other production incentives. Last printed 37 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 38 Warming = Anthropogenic/happening now (1/2)Anthropogenic warming now- consensus and models Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, 2008 (Richard. Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto. Edited by Ernesto Zedillo. “Anthropogenic Climate Change?” Page 42-49) It is time to turn to statement B: human activities are altering the climate. This can be broken into two parts. The first is as follows: global climate is warming. This is by now a generally undisputed point (except by novelist Michael Crichton), so we deal with it only briefly. The two leading compilations of data measured with thermometers are shown in figure 3-3, that of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and that of the British Hadley Centre for Climate Change. Although they differ in the details, due to the inclusion of different data sets and use of different spatial averaging and quality control procedures, they both show a consistent picture, with a global mean warming of 0.8°C since the late nineteenth century. Temperatures over the past ten years clearly were the warmest since measured records have been available. The year 1998 sticks out well above the longterm trend due to the occurrence of a major El Nino event that year (the last El Nino so far and one of the strongest on record). These events are examples of the largest natural climate variations on multiyear time scales and, by releasing heat from the ocean, generally cause positive anomalies in global mean temperature. It is remarkable that the year 2005 rivaled the heat of 1998 even though no El Nino event occurred that year. (A bizarre curiosity, perhaps worth mentioning, is that several prominent "climate skeptics" recently used the extreme year 1998 to claim in the media that global warming had ended. In Lindzen's words, "Indeed, the absence of any record breakers during the past seven years is statistical evidence that temperatures are not increasing.")33 In addition to the surface measurements, the more recent portion of the global warming trend (since 1979) is also documented by satellite data . It is not straightforward to derive a reliable surface temperature trend from satellites, as they measure radiation coming from throughout the atmosphere (not just near the surface), including the stratosphere, which has strongly cooled, and the records are not homogeneous' due to the short life span of individual satellites, the problem of orbital decay, observations at different times of day, and drifts in instrument calibration.' Current analyses of these satellite data show trends that are fully consistent with surface measurements and model simulations ." If no reliable temperature measurements existed, could we be sure that the climate is warming? The "canaries in the coal mine" of climate change (as glaciologist Lonnie Thompson puts it) ~are mountain glaciers. We know, both from old photographs and from the position of the terminal moraines heaped up by the flowing ice, that mountain glaciers have been in retreat all over the world during the past century. There are precious few exceptions, and they are associated with a strong increase in precipitation or local cooling.36 I have inspected examples of shrinking glaciers myself in field trips to Switzerland, Norway, and New Zealand. As glaciers respond sensitively to temperature changes, data on the extent of glaciers have been used to reconstruct a history of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past four centuries (see figure 3- 4). Cores drilled in tropical glaciers show signs of recent melting that is unprecedented at least throughout the Holocene-the past 10,000 years. Another powerful sign of warming , visible clearly from satellites, is the shrinking Arctic sea ice cover (figure 3-5), which has declined 20 percent since satellite observations began in 1979. While climate clearly became warmer in the twentieth century, much discussion particularly in the popular media has focused on the question of how "unusual" this warming is in a longer-term context. While this is an interesting question, it has often been mixed incorrectly with the question of causation. Scientifically, how unusual recent warming is-say, compared to the past millennium-in itself contains little information about its cause. Even a highly unusual warming could have a natural cause (for example, an exceptional increase in solar activity). And even a warming within the bounds of past natural variations could have a predominantly anthropogenic cause. I come to the question of causation shortly, after briefly visiting the evidence for past natural climate variations. Records from the time before systematic temperature measurements were collected are based on "proxy data," coming from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and other sources. These proxy data are generally linked to local temperatures in some way, but they may be influenced by other parameters as well (for example, precipitation), they may have a seasonal bias (for example, the growth season for tree rings), and high-quality long records are difficult to obtain and therefore few in number and geographic coverage. Therefore, there is still substantial uncertainty in the evolution of past global or hemispheric temperatures. (Comparing only local or regional temperature; as in Europe, is of limited value for our purposes,' as regional variations can be much larger than global ones and can have many regional causes, unrelated to global-scale forcing and climate change.) The first quantitative reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere temperature of the past millennium, including an error estimation, was presented by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes and rightly highlighted in the 2001 IPCC report as one of the major new findings since its 1995 report; it is shown in figure 3_6.39 The analysis suggests that, despite the large error bars, twentieth-century warming is indeed highly unusual and probably was unprecedented during the past millennium. This result, presumably because of its symbolic power, has attracted much criticism, to some extent in scientific journals, but even more so in the popular media. The hockey stick- shaped curve became a symbol for the IPCC, .and criticizing this particular data analysis became an avenue for some to question the credibility of the IPCC. Three important things have been overlooked in much of the media coverage. First, even if the scientific critics had been right, this would not have called into question the very cautious conclusion drawn by the IPCC from the reconstruction by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes: "New analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the twentieth century is likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years." This conclusion has since been supported further by every single one of close to a dozen new reconstructions (two of which are shown in figure 3-6). Second, by far the most serious scientific criticism raised against Mann, Hughes, and Bradley was simply based on a mistake. 40 The prominent paper of von Storch and others, which claimed (based on a model test) that the method of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes systematically underestimated variability, "was [itself] based on incorrect implementation of the reconstruction procedure."41 With correct implementation, climate field reconstruction procedures such as the one used by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes have been shown to perform well in similar model tests. Third, whether their reconstruction is accurate or not has no bearing on policy. If their analysis underestimated past natural climate variability, this would certainly not argue for a smaller climate sensitivity and thus a lesser concern about the consequences of our emissions. Some have argued that, in contrast, it would point to a larger climate sensitivity. While this is a valid point in principle, it does not apply in practice to the climate sensitivity estimates discussed herein or to the range given by IPCC, since these did not use the reconstruction of Mann, Hughes, and Bradley or any other proxy records of the past millennium. Media claims that "a pillar of the Kyoto Protocol" had been called into question were therefore misinformed. As an aside, the protocol was agreed in 1997, before the reconstruction in question even existed. The overheated public debate on this topic has, at least, helped to attract more researchers and funding to this area of paleoclimatology; its methodology has advanced significantly, and a number of new reconstructions have been presented in recent years. While the science has moved forward, the first seminal reconstruction by Mann, Hughes, and Bradley has held up remarkably well, with its main features reproduced by more recent work. Further progress probably will require substantial amounts of new proxy data, rather than further refinement of the statistical techniques pioneered by Mann, Hughes, and Bradley. Developing these data sets will require time and substantial effort. It is time to address the final statement: most of the observed warming over the past fifty years is anthropogenic . A large number of studies exist that have taken different approaches to analyze this issue, which is generally called the "attribution problem." I do not discuss the exact share of the anthropogenic contribution (although this is an interesting question). By "most" I imply mean "more than 50 percent.” The first and crucial piece of evidence is, of course, that the magnitude of the warming is what is expected from the anthropogenic perturbation of the radiation balance , so anthropogenic forcing is able to explain all of the temperature rise. As discussed here, the rise in greenhouse gases alone corresponds to 2.6 W/tn2 of forcing. This by itself, after subtraction of the observed 0'.6 W/m2 of ocean heat uptake, would Cause 1.6°C of warming since preindustrial times for medium climate sensitivity (3"C). With a current "best guess'; aerosol forcing of 1 W/m2, the expected warming is O.8°c. The point here is not that it is possible to obtain the 'exact observed number-this is fortuitous because the amount of aerosol' forcing is still very' uncertain-but that the expected magnitude is roughly right. There can be little doubt that the anthropogenic forcing Last printed 38 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 39[CARD CONTINUES…NO TEXT DELETED] Warming = Anthropogenic/happening now (2/2) [CARD CONTINUED FROM ABOVE…NO TEXT DELETED] is large enough to explain most of the warming. Depending on aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity, it could explain a large fraction of the warming, or all of it, or even more warming than has been observed (leaving room for natural processes to counteract some of the warming). The second important piece of evidence is clear: there is no viable alternative explanation . In the scientific literature, no serious alternative hypothesis has been proposed to explain the observed global warming. Other possible causes, such as solar activity, volcanic activity, cosmic rays, or orbital cycles, are well observed, but they do not show trends capable of explaining the observed warming. Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured directly from satellites and shows the well-known eleven-year solar cycle, but no trend. There are various estimates of solar variability before this time, based on sunspot numbers, solar cycle length, the geomagnetic AA index, neutron monitor data, and, carbon-14 data. These indicate that solar activity probably increased somewhat up to 1940. While there is disagreement about the variation in previous centuries, different authors agree that solar activity did not significantly increase during the last sixty-five years. Therefore, this cannot explain the warming, and neither can any of the other factors mentioned. Models driven by natural factors only, leaving the anthropogenic forcing aside, show a cooling in the second half of the twentieth century (for an example, See figure 2-2, panel a, in chapter 2 of this volume). The trend in the sum of natural forcings is downward. The only way out would be either some as yet undiscovered unknown forcing or a warming trend that arises by chance from an unforced internal variability in the climate system. The latter cannot be completely ruled out, but has to be considered highly unlikely. No evidence in the observed record, proxy data, or current models suggest that such internal variability could cause a sustained trend of global warming of the observed magnitude. As discussed , twentieth century warming is unprecedented over the past 1,000 years (or even 2,000 years, as the few longer reconstructions available now suggest), which does not 'support the idea of large internal fluctuations. Also, those past variations correlate well with past forcing (solar variability, volcanic activity) and thus appear to be largely forced rather than due to unforced internal variability." And indeed, it would be difficult for a large and sustained unforced variability to satisfy the fundamental physical law of energy conservation. Natural internal variability generally shifts heat around different parts of the climate system-for example, the large El Nino event of 1998, which warmed, the atmosphere by releasing heat stored in the ocean. This mechanism implies that the ocean heat content drops as the atmosphere warms. For past decades, as discussed, we observed the atmosphere warming and the ocean heat content increasing, which rules out heat release from the ocean as a cause of surface warming. The heat content of the whole climate system is increasing, and there is no plausible source of this heat other than the heat trapped by greenhouse gases. ' A completely different approach to attribution is to analyze the spatial patterns of climate change. This is done in so-called fingerprint studies, which associate particular patterns or "fingerprints" with different forcings. It is plausible that the pattern of a solar-forced climate change differs from the pattern of a change caused by greenhouse gases. For example, a characteristic of greenhouse gases is that heat is trapped closer to the Earth's surface and that, unlike solar variability, greenhouse gases tend to warm more in winter, and at night. Such studies have used different data sets and have been performed by different groups of researchers with different statistical methods. They consistently conclude that the observed spatial pattern of warming can only be explained by greenhouse gases.49 Overall, it has to be considered, highly likely' that the observed warming is indeed predominantly due to the human-caused increase in greenhouse gases. ' This paper discussed the evidence for the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the effect of CO2 on climate, finding that this anthropogenic increase is proven beyond reasonable doubt and that a mass of evidence points to a CO2 effect on climate of 3C ± 1.59C global-warming for a doubling of concentration. (This is, the classic IPCC range; my personal assessment is that, in-the light of new studies since the IPCC Third Assessment Report, the uncertainty range can now be narrowed somewhat to 3°C ± 1.0C) This is based on consistent results from theory, models, and data analysis, and , even in the absence-of any computer models , the same result would still hold based on physics and on data from climate history alone. Considering the plethora of consistent evidence, the chance that these conclusions are wrong has to be considered minute. If the preceding is accepted, then it follows logically and incontrovertibly that a further increase in CO2 concentration will lead to further warming. The magnitude of our emissions depends on human behavior , but the climatic response to various emissions scenarios can be computed from the information presented here. The result is the famous range of future global temperature scenarios shown in figure 3_6.50 Two additional steps are involved in these computations: the consideration of anthropogenic forcings other than CO2 (for example, other greenhouse gases and aerosols) and the computation of concentrations from the emissions. Other gases are not discussed here, although they are important to get quantitatively accurate results. CO2 is the largest and most important forcing . Concerning concentrations, the scenarios shown basically assume that ocean and biosphere take up a similar share of our emitted CO2 as in the past. This could turn out to be an optimistic assumption; some models indicate the possibility of a positive feedback, with the biosphere turning into a carbon source rather than a sink under growing climatic stress. It is clear that even in the more optimistic of the shown (non-mitigation) scenarios, global temperature would rise by 2-3°C above its preindustrial level by the end of this century. Even for a paleoclimatologist like myself, this is an extraordinarily high temperature, which is very likely unprecedented in at least the past 100,000 years. As far as the data show, we would have to go back about 3 million years, to the Pliocene, for comparable temperatures. The rate of this warming (which is important for the ability of ecosystems to cope ) is also highly unusual and unprecedented probably for an even longer time. The last major global warming trend occurred when the last great Ice Age ended between 15,000 and 10,000 years ago: this was a warming of about 5°C over 5,000 years, that is, a rate of only 0.1 °C per century. 52 The expected magnitude and rate of planetary warming is highly likely to come with major risk and impacts in terms of sea level rise (Pliocene sea level was 25-35 meters higher than now due to smaller Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets), extreme events (for example, hurricane activity is expected to increase in a warmer climate), and ecosystem loss. The second part of this paper examined the evidence for the current warming of the planet and discussed what is known about its causes. This part showed that global warming is already a measured and-well-established fact, not a theory. Many different lines of evidence consistently show that most of the observed warming of the past fifty years was caused by human activity . Above all, this warming is exactly what would be expected given the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, and no viable alternative explanation for this warming has been proposed in the scientific literature. Taken together., the very strong evidence accumulated from thousands of independent studies, has over the past decades convinced virtually every climatologist around the world (many of whom were initially quite skeptical, including myself) that anthro pogenic global warming is a realit y with which we need to deal.Last printed 39 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 40 Impact Module – TerrorismIllegal immigrants threaten military installations News Vine 2/ 18/08; “”Illegal Immigration and National Security – It is worse than you know” Opinion, http://purelypolitical.newsvine.com/_news/2008/02/18/1308483-illegal-immigration-and-national-security-it-is-worse-than-you-knowIt is estimated there are currently anywhere from 12 to 20 million illegal immigrants in America. While the millions of illegal Mexicans in America may not be a national security threat, they help create a need for false documentation and identities. This underground network is a great asset to those who are threats to us. Julie L. Myers, Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for ICE made a profound statement in June of 2006, following the arrest of twenty-two illegal immigrants who worked for a company that provided services for Camp Pendleton. She said, "Those who use fraud or false documents to gain employment mask not only their true identities, but also their motives. Moreover, they could be open to exploitation by terrorists or other criminals." The examples of illegal immigrants found working on military installations or for companies that provide services on military bases is incredible. In October 2005, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Department of Defense arrested dozens of illegal immigrants at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico and Navy, Marine and Army bases in California and Louisiana. One month later, ICE arrested a batch of illegal immigrants and their employers. This crew was working in San Diego at Naval Air Station North Island. In February 2006, nine illegal immigrants were arrested by ICE at the Dugway Proving Grounds. The nine were arrested "inside the perimeter of the highly sensitive site, which serves as a major chemical and biological testing center for the Department of Defense." When June rolled around, ICE arrested fourteen illegal immigrants working at Naval Surface Warfare Center in Indian Head, Maryland. For those who don't know, "the base designs, tests and manufactures explosive warheads and propellants and propulsion systems for guns, missiles, rockets and ejector seats in military aircraft." In July of the same year, ICE arrested fifty-eight illegal immigrants trying to enter Ft. Bragg, North Carolina. Furthermore, "Ft. Bragg safety officials have detained more than 150 persons attempting to gain access under false pretenses. The vast majority of the detainees were construction workers detained at gates to the installation." A month later, 15 illegals were arrested in Roswell. They were there to paint military aircraft, including the C- 130. Some were actually painting the aircraft when they were arrested. In January 2007, ICE arrested two men who were conspiring to hire illegal immigrants to work on Quantico Marine Base in Virginia. One of the men, Juan Martinez, had been deported once already, but re-entered the country illegally again. They arrested "14 undocumented workers were administratively arrested in Virginia, three at the Quantico Marine Base, three in Fredericksburg and eight at the apartment complex in Dumfries." ICE also arrested two illegal immigrants at Creech AFB in Indian Springs, Nevada. One of the men was "a member of MS-13, considered to be one of the most dangerous gangs operating in America. " Twenty-one illegal immigrants were arrested when they tried to enter Fort Benning in January of 2007. They were working on the soldier's barracks. The threat to military installations is real. There have been more than enough illegal aliens arrested in connection with our military installations to know that sooner or later someone with enough drive will end up killing someone on a base somewhere. It doesn't have to be an infiltration of a highly secured facility either. That wasn't the goal of the Fort Dix Six. They wanted "to hit a heavy concentration of soldiers ... This is exactly what we are looking for. You hit four, five or six Humvees and light the whole place [up] and retreat completely without any losses." [insert]Last printed 40 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 41 Impact Ext – Terrorism Illegal immigration spurs terrorism – creates market for illegal documents Romanian National Vanguard News Agency 2/16/09; “Millions of Mexican Illegal Aliens Endanger U.S. Security” http://news.ronatvan.com/2009/02/16/millions-of-mexican-illegal-aliens-endanger-us-security/WASHINGTON – The millions of Mexican illegal aliens in the United States endanger national security by creating a demand for false identity documents and smuggling networks that could also assist terrorists, experts said Tuesday. The three experts, speaking at a panel hosted by Nixon Center and Center for Immigration Studies, also said that amnesty for Mexican illegal aliens in the United States should not be considered until immigration enforcement at the U.S.-Mexican border is strengthened. Robert Leiken, a guest scholar at Nixon Center, said that Mexican illegal aliens themselves did not pose a terror threat. But operating in the shadow economy, they help to undermine the rule of law in the United States and in Mexico, he said. "Mexican immigrants are not a direct threat to homeland security," Leiken said. "The real problem is that a large illegal population creates an active market for illegal documents." Leiken said that helping Mexico guard its borders should be one of the most important items on the U.S.-Mexico foreign relations agenda, especially in light of Sept. 11. Another critical aspect of control should be increased immigration law enforcement within U.S. workplaces, he said. "Earned legalization must be sufficiently stringent as to discourage illegal immigration, something the 1986 'amnesty' failed to do. That is why the program must be linked not only to shared U.S. and Mexican border responsibility but also to regularly enforced employer sanctions," he said. George Grayson, a professor of government at the College of William and Mary, said that the Mexican Ministry of the Interior needed to improve the reach and the behavior of its border agents. His 2001 study of the conditions for illegal aliens at the Guatemalan-Mexican border showed that more than 100 criminal organizations continue to move migrants across the frontier, at times through the assistance of corrupt border officials. Middle Eastern, African, and Asian aliens are among the many passing through from Central America, creating a U.S. security threat, the experts said. Despite recent enforcement reforms and crackdowns by the United States and by Mexican President Vincente Fox, illegal immigration continues steadily, they said.Last printed 41 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 42Impact Ext – TerrorismImmigration hurts national security – makes US vulnerable Meese and Spalding, Chairman of the CLJS and Director of Simon Center for American Studies, 07 (Edwin Meese III and Mathew Spalding Ph.D. Chairman of the Center for Legal and Judicial Studies and Director of B. Kenneth Simon Center for American Studies. May 10, 2007, “Where We Stand: Essential Requirements for Immigration Reform,” http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/bg2034.cfm) Over the past several decades, however, immigra tion policy has become confused and unfocused to the point that there is widespread and deepening concern that our current policies regarding immigration are not working. Poorly designed policies and weak enforcement of immigration laws have led to disturb ing vulnerabilities in our security. Millions of illegal immigrants in our country belie the core principle of the rule of law and belittle the legal naturalization process. Continued large-scale immigration without effective assimilation threatens social cohesion and America's civic culture and common identity. At the beginning of this national debate, The Heritage Foundation described the principles that should inform immigration policy, suggested some considerations for policymakers, and proposed several first steps in developing such a policy.[1] Since then, several papers have been published applying these principles to particular aspects of the policy debate.[2] These principles have guided and will continue to guide Heritage Foundation analysis of this question, and they should guide lawmakers and policymakers in evaluating particular proposals that come before them. With Congress and the Administration set to consider once again a major immigration reform package, it is necessary to restate these principles and clarify how they should apply to the current debate. For the sake of immigrants and American citizens alike, any meaningful and long-term policy concerning immigration must be consistent with these principles and, thus, with the highest ideals and long-term good of the United States.Illegal immigration fosters terrorism Federation for American Immigration Reform 05; “Illegal Immigration is a Crime” Illegal immigration Undermines National Security, http://www.fairus.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=16663&security=1601&news_iv_ctrl=1007While most illegal immigrants may come only to seek work and a better economic opportunity, their presence outside the law furnishes an opportunity for terrorists to blend into the same shadows while they target the American public for their terrorist crimes. Some people advocate giving illegal aliens legal status to bring them out of the shadows, but, if we accommodate illegal immigration by offering legal status, this will be seen abroad as a message that we condone illegal immigration, and we will forever be faced with the problem.Last printed 42 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 43 Impact Ext – TerrorismIllegal immigration is a threat to national security and leads to terrorism David K. Rehbein 3/31/09; Rehbein is the national commander of the 2.6 million-member American Legion; “Illegal immigration is a threat to America’s national security” Tuscan Citizen, http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/ss/border/113329.phpThree of the convicted terrorists who plotted to kill innocent soldiers at Fort Dix, N.J., were illegal immigrants. Some of the 9/11 hijackers were undeniably illegal, though one could argue that all were here illegally since none told visa officials their true purpose for entering the country - to fly planes into buildings. A congressional report revealed that in 2005, border patrol agents apprehended 650 illegal immigrants from "special interest countries" (nations designated by the intelligence community as "countries that could export individuals that could bring harm to our country in the way of terrorism"). Simply put, illegal immigration is a threat to America's national security. As such, President Obama must make border security a top priority in his administration. In the October 2008 issue of The American Legion Magazine, then-Sen. Obama said, "I think that we've got to have surveillance, virtual patrols. We've got to crack down on the employers that are really the magnets for illegal immigration. That can reduce the flows along the borders. "Obviously, we got a national security and homeland security concern as well, but if border patrols are being pressured by huge volumes of illegal immigrants searching for work, that makes us more vulnerable in terms of looking after our potential security concerns." All are good ideas and The American Legion, an organization of 2.6 million wartime veterans, offers its complete support to the administration in enacting these initiatives. We call on Congress to accept its responsibility as outlined in the U.S. Constitution. That is, "to provide for the common defense," and, most important, to provide for the safety of the citizens of this country. America is struggling with a global economic crisis. But it also has a crisis in the form of illegal immigration, a problem that clearly has economic consequences as well. It's one that government at the federal level has failed to resolve and government at the local level is nearly powerless to address. Many at the highest levels of government seem fearful of making the hard choices necessary to assure the safety and well-being of American citizens and foreign immigrants, legal or illegal. The U.S. Code is clear and to the point: Illegal immigration is a violation of the law. And those groups or individuals who assist immigrants in illegally entering or residing in the United States also are in violation. So, what's the problem? In a word: enforcement. The laws are on the books, but they often are ignored. The American Legion advocates a broad-based policy. That policy starts with the simple premise that America is best served by enforcing the current laws that regulate legal immigration into this country. We recognize that it would be impractical to deport millions of people, but we have to at least start with a consensus that they need to follow an organized, legal path to citizenship. In the meanwhile, our borders need to be controlled. We cannot have porous borders, nor can those who are here illegally have full access to the benefits that our society offers those who are legal residents. The American Legion's basic rationale in its opposition to illegal immigration is sound, non-discriminatory and equitable. That means no amnesty, in any form or by any name. To pardon those who enter our country illegally or those who remain, illegally, beyond their legal status is unfair to law-abiding immigrants, and contrary to the best interests of a law-abiding society. America is a nation of immigrants, but we also are a nation of laws. And if we fail to protect our borders, we may not remain a nation at all.Last printed 43 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 44 Impact Ext – TerrorismIllegal immigration will lead to another terrorist attack on U.S. soil – terrorists exploit immigration loopholes Faye Bowers 3/22/05; Bowers is a staff writer for The Christian Science Monitor; “US-Mexican border as a terror risk” The Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0322/p01s01-uspo.htmlConcern is growing at the top levels of government about the US-Mexican border becoming a back door for terrorists entering the United States. While Al Qaeda infiltration across the nation's southern border has been a constant concern since 9/11, US officials cite recent intelligence giving the most definitive evidence yet that terrorists are planning to use it as an entry point - if they haven't already. As a result, a number of Republican and Democratic lawmakers - mainly from border states - are pushing to tighten checkpoints and other ways of monitoring the porous 1,400-mile boundary. The subject will also be central to President Bush's summit in Texas Wednesday with Mexican President Vicente Fox and Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin. "I'm worried about our border," Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona said at a March 17 Senate hearing on threats facing the US. "We have now hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people who are crossing illegally every year. And we are now seeing a larger number of people cross our southern border who are from countries of interest as opposed to just Latin American [countries]." The "countries of interest" that Senator McCain refers to are those so designated by the US government as known to house radical, if not terrorist, groups. One of the biggest concerns is that terrorists may exploit the current crossing procedures to make their way into the US. One way they might do this - and members of Congress say evidence is mounting that terrorists are trying this - is by paying smuggling networks, especially organized gangs. The other is through a loophole in the system to separate the large number of illegal Mexican migrants, who are automatically turned back at the borders, from citizens of other countries who are allowed in, pending immigration hearings. These others are referred to as "other than Mexicans," or OTMs, by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). They come from other Latin American countries as well as other parts of the world, many of them designated by the government as countries of "special interest." In 2004, some 44,000 OTMs were allowed into the US. It's not clear how many terrorists or people having connections to terror groups may have entered the US as OTMs. But FBI Director Robert Mueller, in a House Appropriations Committee hearing March 9, said he was aware that individuals from countries with known Al Qaeda ties had entered the US under false identities. Furthermore, in a Feb. 16 Senate hearing, Mr. Mueller cited the case of Mahmoud Youssef Kourani, who paid to be smuggled across the US-Mexico border in 2001. He pleaded guilty on March 1 to providing material support to Hizbullah and was sentenced to no more than five years in prison. The most recent sign, though, that terrorists may be thinking of entering the US from the south came from the mastermind of many of the terror attacks in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Last week, US officials revealed that Mr. Zarqawi may be planning to broaden his campaign to include strikes in the US - and suggested it would be easy to infiltrate the US through the southern border. Of the 44,000 OTMs who entered the US last year, it is not known how many were detained and how many remain free. Members of Congress are continuing to lean on government officials, asking for clear assessments of numbers as well as policies intended to thwart the entry of those who would harm the US. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California asked the DHS's Adm. James Loy at a hearing last month about the numbers of OTMs detained and those set free. He replied that he didn't have the numbers, and as of the end of last week, the senator's office said the DHS still hadn't provided her those numbers. But in response to a request from Rep. Solomon Ortiz (D) of Texas, the DHS supplied numbers of OTMs registered, by country of origin, who had been released on their own recognizance for fiscal years 2002, 2003, and 2004. The totals were 5,775, 9,139, and 30,756 respectively. Some countries, such as those known to export gang members, showed dramatic increases in numbers entering the US. The DHS document, for instance, shows 1,463 OTMs entering the US from El Salvador in 2002. That number increased to 7,963 in 2004. Some 2,539 OTMs entered the US from Honduras in 2002, and that number increased to 12,549 in 2004. Representative Ortiz, though, disputes many of the DHS numbers. He says he regularly hears reports of much higher figures from border patrol officials from his district in Texas, which includes the border-crossing area of Brownsville. "In the Brownsville sector alone, border patrol officials reported they caught 23,178 OTMs crossing through August 2004," Mr. Ortiz says. "Of those, 16,616 were released." Ortiz also points out that another loophole is entering Mexico through Brazil, where a visa is not required to travel to Mexico. "We believe there is an international Salafist jihadi movement with a goal to attack the near enemy and far enemy - the US," says Richard Shultz, an international security expert at Tufts University's Fletcher School in Medford, Mass. "These terrorists are smart. They study these issues and learn from one other. And one way in is right through the southern security perimeter."Last printed 44 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 45 Impact Module – EnvironmentImmigration causes overpopulation destroying the environment – turns case FAIR 09 (The Federation for American Immigration Reform, June 2009, “Immigration Hastens Environmental Damage” http://www.fairus.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=16924&security=1601&news_iv_ctrl=1009) When immigrants come to the United States, they do not maintain the traditional lifestyle of their home country. Rather, they quickly adapt to the American lifestyle. As they do, they become greater consumers and polluters; their individual ecological footprint increases. For example, the carbon footprint of the average immigrant is 302 percent higher than it would have been had s/he remained at home. This does not justify the consumptive patterns of Americans; however, it does indicate that that we can reduce the immediate stress upon our environment by limiting immigration to the U.S. The problem is not merely that immigrant’s ecological footprint increases after they arrive in America although that fact is troubling in itself. Immigration also causes overpopulation. Environment degradation does not solely depend on per capita consumption and waste; it also matters how many people there are. Simply stated: The more people there are in the United States, the more we as a whole degrade the environment. This is the problem of population growth, and immigration worsens it severely. The Pew Research Center estimates that post 1970’s immigrants and their children will constitute 82 percent of population growth from 2005 to 2050.2 We can not manage our nation’s ecological footprint unless we stabilize our population. But we cannot stabilize our population without reducing annual immigration to a sustainable level. For the sake of our environment, we need a moratorium on immigration.[Insert]Last printed 45 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 46 Impact Ext – EnvironmentIllegal immigration kills biodiversity Emma Marris 7/26/06; Marris is a freelance writer for nature; “Wildlife caught in crossfire of US immigration battle” nature – international weekly journal of science; http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v442/n7101/full/442338a.htmlRichard Felger, a conservationist who runs the Drylands Institute in Tucson, Arizona, used to stop and share coffee with people he met crossing the desert along the US–Mexico border. Not any more. A couple of summers ago he was robbed at gunpoint in the Sierra Madres by some drug runners. Another time he was almost carjacked. "You can't tell who's friendly anymore," he says. Felger and other conservation biologists say that the biologically valuable lands along the border have become a war zone; increasing numbers of migrants and drug-traffickers are travelling north via the desert, which means more Border Patrol agents pursuing them in cars and helicopters. The dangers are making research into how all the activity is affecting the region's endangered wildlife impossible. But researchers warn that proposals to erect hundreds of kilometres of fences and roads to try to stop the illegal crossings will damage many of the fragile species even further. The US–Mexico border is one of the longest policed borders in the world, stretching some 3,200 km. Cutting through the Colorado river delta, it then runs through the Sonoran Desert for much of its western length. The area is a conservation priority because its rich biodiversity is threatened by a declining water supply — humans use nearly all the water in the Colorado river. It hosts more plant species than any other desert, as well as vulnerable animals including the pronghorn antelope, and species of bat, owl and jaguar. Over the past decade or so, tougher border enforcement at major crossings such as San Diego in California and El Paso in Texas, has squeezed migrants and drug runners out into the desert. That's making life dangerous for local wildlife, and the biologists studying it. "The Sonoran Desert system can be pretty fragile," says Kathy Billings, chief ranger of the desert's Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument park. Billings began her job not long after ranger Kris Eggle was shot and killed when on duty in a drug-related pursuit in 2002. Billings describes the illegal trails beaten into the desert by immigrants and smugglers. The desert is spangled with trash — nappies, toothbrushes, backpacks and water bottles painted black for night walking. In places, "the smell of human waste is overwhelming", she says. About a third of the park is now closed to visitors, and researchers must frequently be accompanied by armed guards. "Today these groups are often carrying drugs and are a lot more dangerous," adds Mark Briggs, a restoration ecologist who has worked with the conservation group the WWF, and Big Bend National Park in Texas. "I've had some fairly frightening experiences. But you go on with your work, and they go on with theirs." The dangers mean that data on how badly the environment is being damaged are scarce. "It's a joke to say we can do pygmy-owl surveys with the amount of activity you see down there," says Jenny Neeley, southwest representative of Defenders of Wildlife. Neely, based in Phoenix, Arizona, is co-author of a report about how illegal immigrants and the Border Patrol hurt wildlife. Peter Morrison, director of the Pacific Biodiversity Institute in Winthrop, Washington, has been able to do some research on the problem. In a survey of the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, for example, he recorded an average of 4 km of illegal trails per square kilometre of land. Half the trails were found in the habitat of the endangered Pima pineapple cactus. Morrison presented his results last month at the annual meeting of the Society for Conservation Biology in San Jose, California. But he and his colleagues are now avoiding certain areas. "It's getting a bit scary," he says. "A lot of people in the field are questioning whether they want to keep doing this work." This election season, US politicians have focused their attention on the problems at the border. In the past couple of months President George W. Bush has sent thousands of National Guard troops to aid the 9,000-strong Border Patrol. And duelling bills in the House and Senate propose hundreds of kilometres of extra fencing and illuminated roads. "We are going to see some fencing built, and some roads built," says Marshal Fitz, director of advocacy for the American Immigration Lawyers Association based in Washington DC. "It's just a matter of how much and when." But although conservationists are pleased that attention is being paid to the situation, they are horrified by the influx of troops and the proposed fences. "What they are putting up is like a Berlin wall, and the border-control guys are creating roads left and right," says Briggs. "It has been a huge setback for the wildlife." "It's very important to try to maintain a wildlife-friendly border," agrees Morrison. "If we put up a 12- or 25-foot high wall, it stops everything except things that fly from crossing. That would be a real disaster in the long term." Researchers are particularly worried about the easily spooked migratory Sonoran pronghorn antelope. Fences would fragment the endangered antelope populations into even smaller groups, and the extra stress caused by border-control traffic might push them over the brink. Meanwhile trash piles attract ravens, which might eat threatened tortoises, and all-night lights disrupt bugs, bats and nocturnal cats such as the ocelot and jaguarondi.Last printed 46 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 47 Impact Ext – Environment Immigrants are the main cause of population growth resulting in environmental depletion Muradian 06 (Roldan Muradian, Development Research Institute IVO, Ecological Economics Volume 59, Issue 2, 12 September 2006, Pages 208- 213 Migration, Globalization and the Environment - Migration, Globalization and the Environment) Most of the scholars who have used environmental concerns for opposing immigration in the U.S., such as D. Pimentel, P. Ehrlich, and H. Daly, belong to the Malthusian tradition. This stream of thought stresses the notion of natural limits and assumes that human populations are constrained by the carrying capacity of the environment, as any other species on earth. The environmental arguments against immigration can be summarized as follows: population growth, particularly of wealthy people, is one of the main causes of local and global environmental degradation. Since immigration is one of the main driving forces of population growth in the U.S., it should be reduced to minimum levels, in order to preserve the local environment and prevent an increase in the global negative environmental effects of American consumption. It is argued that immigrants contribute directly to the degradation of the local environment by means of urban sprawl, congestion and pollution, waste generation, water consumption, land conversion, depletion of natural resources and biodiversity loss (BALANCE, 1992 and Garling, 1998). The underlying premise is that the U.S. has already exceeded its carrying capacity (Pimentel et al., 1998 and Cassils, 2004). Sometimes anti-immigration policies have been justified on the moral ground of the universal right to a healthy environment (Chapman, 2000). Environmental arguments are normally accompanied by socioeconomic concerns: immigrants exert a downward pressure on wages, particularly, but not only, of low-skilled labor, thus undermining the living conditions of the Afro-Americans, other immigrants and native-born middle classes (Beck, 1996 and Daly, 1997). Environmental restrictionists often also state that immigration increases housing problems, weaken the bargaining power of unions, undercuts community organization, represents a disproportionate public cost, and contributes to the deterioration of education and health facilities. The overall conclusion is that the current level of immigration–about 1 million legal immigrants per year–seriously threatens the quality of life and the conditions of the local environment in the U.S.Illegal immigrants destroy the environment Congressman Tom Tancredo June 06 “In Mortal Danger” Chapter 16 – Environmental Impact from Illegal immigration; scerp.org/bi/bi_ix/Tancredo%20chapter16.docPeople coming into this country illegally have essentially destroyed large chunks of our pristine desert along the southern border. Millions upon millions of feet walking have created thousands of footpaths that cannot be regenerated by the natural environment. In 2002 nearly ninety-two thousand acres of the Coronado National Forest near Tucson, Arizona, were lost to forest fires. In a repot by Gal Achenbrenner, public affairs officer at the Coronado National Forest, “warming and cooking fires built and abandoned by undocumented aliens have caused wildfires that have destroyed natural and cultural resources.” Where plants are threatened and destroyed, so is wildlife. In 2004, Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS) revealed that “99percent of its native grassland, 80 percent of its coastal wetlands and at least 73 plants and animal are extinct in our state. Over 150 animals and 280 plants are listed as endangered, threatened, rare.” Diana Hull, president of CAPS, argued that the prevention of environmental degradation is impossible to stop “until we stabilize our populations. California also faces water and energy shortages, but politicians lack the courage and will to tackle the problems.” Hull’s Statement points to another serious problem threatening not just the landscape of the border states but the rest of the nation’s natural resources. By allowing millions of pole into the country, the increase in the consumption of natural resources leaves and ever-decreasing supply of those resources. According to the Census Bureau, of the 281 million people in the United States in 2000, 31 million were naturalized citizens, resident legal aliens, and resident illegal aliens. By the year 2100, the Census Bureau projects that the population will increase by 50 percent with 66 percent of the population consisting of post-2000 immigrants and their families. With this kind of projected growth, there are certain aspects of the environment that are sure to be impacted. Consider the following:Last printed 47 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 48 Impact Ext – EnvironmentIllegal immigration kills the environment – overpopulation Larry West – writer for About.com; No Date; “Is Immigration Bad for the Environment?” http://environment.about.com/od/environmentallawpolicy/a/immigration.htmWhat to do about booming legal and illegal immigration rates is one of the most controversial topics on Americans’ political agenda these days. More than a million immigrants achieve permanent resident status in the United States every year. Another 700,000 become full-fledged American citizens. The non-profit Pew Research Center reports that 82 percent of U.S. population growth is attributable to immigration. U.S. Population is Growing Rapidly Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that U.S. population will grow from 303 million people today to 400 million as early as 2040. While many industrialized nations, including Japan and most of Western Europe, are experiencing slowdowns in population growth due to below-replacement birth levels and little immigration, the United States is growing so fast that it trails only India and China in total numbers. Does Immigration Stress the Environment and U.S. Infrastructure? Advocates for U.S. population stabilization, including some environmental organizations and leaders, fear that this ongoing influx of new arrivals is forcing the nation to exceed its “carrying capacity,” stressing an already overburdened physical infrastructure. David Durham of Population-Environment Balance says that Americans who care about the environment should insist on reducing immigration, to recognize “ecological realities such as limited potable water, topsoil and infrastructure.” He also cites studies showing that a permissive U.S. immigration policy drives up fertility rates in the sending countries “which is the last thing these sending countries need.” Last printed 48 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 49 Impact Ext – Environment Illegal immigration degrades the environment, drains natural resources, and destroys the quality of life James H. Walsh is a former federal prosecutor and associate general counsel, U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service (1983-1994) 5/9/06; “Illegal Aliens’ Impact on Public Health and Environment” newsmax.com, http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/5/8/230000.shtmlImmigration is an environmental issue. For more that three decades, congressional Democrats and Republicans have been briefed repeatedly by three separate presidential commissions on the need to stabilize the U.S. population by limiting immigration. The President's Commission on Population Growth and the American Future (1970-1972), chaired by John D. Rockefeller III, called for border enforcement, the curbing of illegal immigration, and recognition of the link between an ever-increasing immigrant population and environmental degradation. The Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy (1978-1981), chaired by Father Theodore Hesburgh, president of the University of Notre Dame, repeated these admonitions; as did the Jordan Commission on Immigration Reform (1990-1997), originally chaired by former Rep. Barbara Jordan. The chairs of these commissions were as diverse as the American people – a billionaire businessman, a president of a Catholic university, and a former member of Congress, who was a prominent black woman. In 1972, the Rockefeller Commission reported to Congress that the growth of the U.S. population (then at 205 million people) as the result of immigration (legal and illegal) was threatening the environmental legacy of future generations of Americans. These commissions, one after the other, called for immigration policies to address the real harm that unregulated growth was doing to the ecology of the United States. Repeatedly, Congress has rejected the correlation between an uncontrolled, uncounted immigrant population and environmental degradation. Instead, members of Congress have played to the special interest groups that advocate open borders. The 1986 immigration legislation granted cover of legitimacy to illegal aliens under the guise of "amnesty," just as some senators and representatives want to do again in 2006. Nothing has changed except the number of illegal aliens residing in the United States, and that number continues to escalate along with the harm being done to natural resources in the United States by this uncounted and unaccounted for ghost population – a ghost population that has taken to the streets with signs and foreign flags. The findings of the three commissions were validated in 2001 when the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that two-thirds of the future growth of the United States will result from immigrants (legal and illegal), immigrants who have arrived since 1994 plus their off-spring and extended families. The estimated population of the United States in 2005 was 298.2 million up from 243.1 million in 1980. Part of this increase can be traced to the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA), another piece of muddled legislation that granted amnesty to an estimated 2.7 million illegal aliens, but this was just the beginning. Amnesty served as a pathway for the legal entry of an estimated 4 million family members of the previously illegal aliens. Scientific consensus supports the findings of the presidential commissions on the direct relationship between population and environmental degradation. Air pollution, increased human waste, destructive pressures on the oceans, forest conversions, habitat destruction, reduced agricultural land and productivity, soil erosion, water consumption, and energy demands will impact the environmental landscape, including desert and mountain ecosystems, and ultimately the quality of life as we know it – the very quality of life that drew the immigrants. Population stability both in the United States and worldwide is threatened by migrations from underdeveloped countries to developed countries. Migration from the majority of the world's countries to Europe, Australia/New Zealand, Canada, and the United States is economically based. The United Nations in a 2002 report estimated that 91 million people are living as migrants in Europe and North America, which doubles the 1975 estimate. The new immigration agencies in the Department of Homeland Security estimate that 60 percent of migrants residing in the United States are from Mexico. This, in turn, creates a new paradigm of demographics – highly fertile young migrants supplanting an aging native population. In 1864, George Marsh, a diplomat and New Englander, wrote the book, "Man and Nature," linking human action with deforestation, desertification, avalanches, wildlife extirpation, and additional environmental degradation. The link between population and environment was introduced to the public by such works as Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring" (1962), Garrett Hardin's "Tragedy of the Commons" (1968), and Paul Ehrlich's "The Population Bomb" (1968). Although Ehrlich's widespread famines have yet to occur, natural disasters are on the rise. In 2005, damage caused by hurricanes Stan, Wilma, and Beta in Central America and especially Mexico sent a new wave of environmental immigrants to the United States. The damage to Cancun and the Mayan Riviera shattered the tourist, fishing, and agricultural industries and dislocated skilled and semi-skilled workers. The entrenched politicians of Mexico and Central America encourage migrations to the United States, using suggestions of climate change, natural disasters, environmental changes, over-population, and unhealthy conditions to urge a northward migration. March 22, 2006, was World Water Day, and the 4th World Water Forum met prior to it in Mexico City. This United Nations-sponsored meeting addressed the link between water and culture, concluding, "Cultural traditions, indigenous practices, and societal values determine how people perceive and manage water in the world's different regions." The message was that the United States and other developed countries must acquiesce to the new cultural and societal values of immigrants, legal or illegal. Considering the environmental aspects of immigration, why are the environmental groups not more vocal [continues]Last printed 49 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 50[continued from above] on the subject? Why do prestigious groups, such as the National Audubon Society and the Sierra Club, waffle on the impact of the illegal alien population on the environment? The Green Party and most environmentalists remain silent on the subject. As with Congress, most environmental groups show no profiles in courage. There are, however, exceptions. In February 2006, the Defenders of Wildlife issued a report acknowledging the vast damage caused by illegal aliens crossing the fragile ecosystem of the U.S. Southern border. With an average of 1 million illegal aliens apprehended each year since 1988 and another 1.1 million illegal aliens entering the country uncaught, the damage to the desert ecology is increasing. The presence of 12 million to 20 million (perhaps up to 30 million) illegal aliens in the United States has consequences. This uncounted, unplanned for population of lawbreakers is affecting the quality of life in the United States. Air pollution, water pollution, energy consumption (gas, coal, wood, and electricity), deforestation, soil erosion and agricultural degradation, over-fishing, and ocean exhaustion threaten the sustainability of natural resources. As natural resources become scarce and prices rise, the economic stability of the country is undermined. The U.S. immigration system is broken and has been for decades. The U.S. Congress, now in session, in its legislative attempts to fix the malfunctioning immigration system, must address protecting public health, sustaining natural resources, and improving environmental quality. Congress must cast aside timidity and the lobbying efforts of special interests and act to stabilize the U.S. population by limiting the number of legal immigrants admitted each year and by stopping illegal immigration at the border. A stable population and sustainable environment depend on congressional action. It is all well and good for the president to sign strict public health executive orders, but they are meaningless if Congress continues to counteract them with muddled immigration legislation that perpetuates weak enforcement. For the last 40 years, the U.S. Congress has failed to protect the nation's public health and environment from a foreign-born population explosion. With the current rate of illegal immigration worldwide, public health and environmental quality in developed nations could approach the levels of disease and environmental degradation in many Third World countries. The United States of America can best help developing nations by staying strong and healthy itself. With the survival of the United States – as united states – at risk, U.S. citizens must demand the government they deserve. Last printed 50 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 51Last printed 51 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 52 Impact Module – PollutionIllegal immigration increases pollution Bonnie Erbe 6/25/09; “Illegal Immigratioin is Bad for the Environment” US News and World Report, http://www.usnews.com/blogs/erbe/2009/06/25/illegal-immigration-is-bad-for-the-environment.htmlI come to my opposition to mass illegal immigration from an environmental perspective. This country's ballooning population is polluting our water, our air, turning beautiful open space into tacky suburbs and malls and generally degrading the quality of life here. Individual immigrants, whether legal or illegal, are generally good people. They want what native-born Americans want— to make a good living and provide for their families. That's completely understandable. Unfortunately, at this point in our history, there is no way they can do so here without degrading the environment. It's tough to say that, as looking at new immigrants, my heart goes out to them. But does my heart hurt to the point where I want to see the American countryside destroyed, rural life pushed aside, and our air and water polluted to the breaking point? No. Granting amnesty to people who broke U.S. law turns our laws upside down and sends a message that U.S. laws can be broken with impunity. That's the wrong message to send. It is difficult for politicians to stand up against the immigration lobby, which is huge and powerful. But I commend Sen. Schumer for so doing.Air pollution results in extinction. Driesen ‘3 (David, Professor of Law, Syracuse, Buffalo Environmental Law Journal, Fall, 2002 / Spring, 2003, p. LN) Air pollution can make life unsustainable by harming the ecosystem upon which all life depends and harming the health of both future and present generations . The Rio Declaration articulates six key principles that are relevant to air pollution. These principles can also be understood as goals, because they describe a state of affairs [*27] that is worth achieving. Agenda 21, in turn, states a program of action for realizing those goals. Between them, they aid understanding of sustainable development's meaning for air quality. The first principle is that "human beings. . . are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature ", because they are "at the center of concerns for sustainable development." n3 While the Rio Declaration refers to human health, its reference to life "in harmony with nature" also reflects a concern about the natural environment. n4 Since air pollution damages both human health and the environment, air quality implicates both of these concerns. n5Last printed 52 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 53 Impact Module – CrimeIllegal immigrants live lives of crime and gangs Wooldrige, BA in Journalism, 2004 (Frosty, 1/29/2004 “Immigration’s Third Momentum Crime Wave,” http://www.frostywooldridge.com/articles/art_2004jan29.html) [Charlie Stephens]In her recent scathing report, ‘THE ILLEGAL ALIEN CRIME WAVE’ by brilliant investigative reporter, Heather MacDonald, our country is being assaulted by a crime wave that grows steadily and viciously. A full 95% of all outstanding warrants for homicide, which totaled 1,500 last year in Los Angeles, pointed to illegal aliens. Soberingly, two thirds of all fugitive felony warrants, totaling a horrifying 17,000, were for illegal aliens. To make matters worse, in 1995 a report showed that 60% of the 20,000-strong 18th Street gang in southern California was composed of illegal aliens. That gang collaborates with the Mexican Mafia on drug distribution schemes, extortion and drive-by assassinations. They commit assault and robberies every day of the week. A night of crime to them is like a day of work for American citizens.[Insert]Last printed 53 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 54 Impact Module – DiseaseIllegal immigrants massively increase infectious diseases Whitehead 5-8-09 - president of the Rutherford Institute [John W., "Swine flu pandemic: Silent invasions and deadly consequences" http://www.wmicentral.com/site/news.cfm? BRD=2264&dept_id=581907&newsid=20311470&PAG=461&rfi=9]Yet unlike those who arrive in the United States through official channels, those who cross the borders illegally make it increasingly difficult to control who and, more critically, what enters the country. Indeed, as the report "Immigration's Silent Invasion, Deadly Consequences" details, "The invasion of illegal aliens pouring over the borders of the United States is taking an ominous turn. They are not alone! Their bodies may carry hepatitis A, B and C, tuberculosis, leprosy and chagas disease. Chagas is a nasty parasitic bug common in Latin America where 18 million people are infected and 50,000 deaths occur annually." What's more, as a result of the influx of illegal immigrants, measles is reportedly making a comeback. As an American, I have always been inspired by the fact that my country welcomes those "huddled masses" who come here seeking refuge. And as long as government officials maintain our borders and ensure that those coming from other countries are screened in order to protect those who legally live here, the concept of welcoming immigrants is a noble one. Yet the stakes are too high for us not to be more prudent in guarding our borders and screening those who travel in and out of the country. Some of the worst epidemics historically have resulted from global travel and trade. As Professor Steven Mintz of the University of Houston notes: "Throughout history, the movement of people has played a critical role in the transmission of infectious disease. As a result of migration, trade, and war, disease germs have traveled from one environment to others. As intercultural contact has increased - as growing numbers of people traveled longer distances to more diverse destinations - the transmission of infectious diseases has increased as well. No part of the globe has been immune from this process of disease transmission."Disease spread will cause extinction. Steinbruner 98 Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution [John D., “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy, Dec 22Its a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a key to our survival that, so far, the main lines of defense against this threat have not depended on explicit policies or organized efforts. In the long course of evolution, the human body has developed physical barriers and a biochemical immune system whose sophistication and effectiveness exceed anything we could design or as yet even fully understand. But evolution is a sword that cuts both ways: New diseases emerge, while old diseases mutate and adapt. Throughout history, there have been epidemics during which human immunity has broken down on an epic scale. An infectious agent believed to have been the plague bacterium killed an estimated 20 million people over a four-year period in the fourteenth century, including nearly one-quarter of Western Europe's population at the time. Since its recognized appearance in 1981, some 20 variations of the mv virus have infected an estimated 29.4 million worldwide, with 1.5 million people currently dying of AIDS each year. Malaria, tuberculosis, and cholera--once thought to be under control--are now making a comeback. As we enter the twenty-first century, changing conditions have enhanced the potential forwidespread contagion. The rapid growth rate of the total world population, the unprecedented freedom of movement across international borders, and scientific advances that expand the capability for the deliberate manipulation of pathogens are all cause for worry that the problem might be greater in the future than it has ever been in the past. The threat of infectious pathogens is not just an issue of public health, but a fundamental security problem for the species as a whole.Last printed 54 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 55 Impact Ext – DiseaseIllegal immigrants bring over deadly diseases Gibson, 05 (Dave, “Illegal Immigrants Are Spreading Dangerous Diseases Across This Nation,” http://www.americandaily.com/article/77510) [Charlie Stephens] It is often said that the flood of illegal immigrants into this country is reaching 'epidemic proportions.' While that statement is true--it is just as true that the illegal immigrants pouring over the U.S.-Mexican border are endangering this country with actual epidemics. Tuberculosis, hepatitis, dengue fever, chagas, and even leprosy are being imported into the U.S. inside the bodies of illegal aliens...And you thought they only carried heroin-filled balloons inside their bodies! A 'hot-zone' of disease can be found in this nations border states. Illegal immigrants are setting up so-called "colonias" just inside the states of New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona. The shanty towns are comprised mostly of cardboard shacks and huts made with cast- off building materials. They have no sanitation, and are surrounded by mounds of garbage. The estimated 185,000 illegals share their makeshift towns with armies of rats. Illegal immigrants bring deadly diseases to America Wooldrige, BA in Journalism, 2003 (Frosty, “Illegal Aliens Spreading Deadly Diseases Across USA,” http://www.frostywooldridge.com/articles/art_illegal_aliens_spreading_diseases.html) [Charlie Stephens]If you travel into the Third World such as Mexico, Central and South America, you will notice that while visiting a bathroom there is a box for used toilet paper in the corner and no soap or paper towels at the lavatory. The sewage systems cannot handle toilet paper so it is a habit to throw it in the box provided which is open to flies and cockroaches. Additionally, for most Third World people, washing hands is non-existent. Today, in California, Florida, Georgia and spreading to other states across the nation, recent arrivals are so accustomed to throwing their used toilet paper into boxes, they throw it into trash cans. Whether they work at the counter or chopping tomatoes, they often do not wash their hands. Thousands carry head lice, leprosy, tuberculosis and hepatitis A, B, and C. Annually, an estimated 800,000 illegal aliens cross America's southern borders while avoiding a health screening. They are not stopped or vaccinated for a host of diseases they're bringing into America. Who is at risk? Everyone, but especially our school children when they come in contact with in- excess of three million illegal alien school children daily. What can those three million kids unknowingly transfer to our kids? Tuberculosis, five years ago, was almost non-existent in the USA. Last week, a school in Sebewaing, Michigan reported 30 children and four teachers had tested positive for tuberculosis infections. Michigan supports a large Latin illegal alien population that migrated from Mexico. In the past four years, 16,000 cases of multi drug resistant (MDR) TB, which was formerly endemic ONLY to Mexico, crossed over the borders inside the bodies of illegal aliens. These adults and their children have spread out across the country to work in fast foods and harvesting. Another outbreak occurred in Austin, Minnesota where eight police officers tested positive for tuberculosis. A similar outbreak occurred in Portland, Maine last week with 28 testing positive for tuberculosis. On November 6, 2003, at a local restaurant chain, Chi-Chi's in Beaver Valley, Pennsylvania, unscreened employees 'served' up plates of infectious hepatitis A to their patrons. Over 3,000 had to receive the painful gammaglobulin shots while two Americans died. Health officials reported, "Workers may have contaminated food by failure to follow basic hygiene in cleaning hands after using the bathroom." The employees were not health screened by the restaurant chain. Another distressing disease, leprosy, long feared from Biblical times, totaled 900 cases in the USA in the past 40 years. In the past three years, according to a report from the NY Times in February, 2003, leprosy has infected over 7,000 people in the United States. It was brought in by illegal immigrants from India, Brazil, Mexico and the Caribbean. Leprosy spreads by infected illegal aliens working in fast food, dish washing and hotels. Chagas Disease is brought directly from Mexico and Latin America where it has infected over 18,000,000 people. The T-Cruzi protozoan destroys heart tissue and other organs. "One can contract it by eating uncooked food contaminated with infective feces of the Vinchuca Bug. It crosses over the border in the bodies of an average of 2,200 illegal aliens daily. Whether it's dengue fever, now in Florida, Hemmorhagic Fever coming up from Texas border towns or E-coli intestinal parasites arriving with illegal aliens from Mexico daily, every American citizen is under a form of 'Bio Terrorism'. Tom Ridge of Homeland Security presents Americans with color coded 'alert' levels from Al Queda, but what he doesn't protect us from is a mounting invasion from an 'unarmed army' of disease carrying illegals who are becoming just as deadly as 9/11.Last printed 55 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 56Impact Ext – DiseaseIllegal immigrants bring and help spread diseases Dave Gibson 5/12/05; Dave Gibson is a freelance writer and political consultant for American Daily, “Illegal immigrants Are Spreading Dangerous Diseases Across This Nation” American Daily; http://www.americandaily.com/article/7751It is often said that the flood of illegal immigrants into this country is reaching 'epidemic proportions.' While that statement is true--it is just as true that the illegal immigrants pouring over the U.S.-Mexican border are endangering this country with actual epidemics. Tuberculosis, hepatitis, dengue fever, chagas, and even leprosy are being imported into the U.S. inside the bodies of illegal aliens...And you thought they only carried heroin-filled baloons inside their bodies! A 'hot-zone' of disease can be found in this nations border states. Illegal immigrants are setting up so-called "colonias" just inside the states of New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona. The shanty towns are comprised mostly of cardboard shacks and huts made with cast-off building materials. They have no sanitation, and are surrounded by mounds of garbage. The estimated 185,000 illegals share their makeshift towns with armies of rats. Of course, diseases only common to Central and South America run rampant in these places.One of the imports to this country is chagas disease. It is caused by a parasite known as trypanosome. It is a blood-borne disease and is spread by triatomine insects. The parasite burrows into human tissue (usually in the face), where it then begins to multiply. In addition to being spread by insects, it can also be contracted through blood transfusions.After cases of chagas were reportedly discovered to have been spread by transfusions in Canada, that nation began testing all blood donations for the disease.For 40 years, the number of recorded cases of leprosy within the United States totaled 900. Today, we know of more than 7,000 current cases of leprosy in the U.S.Dr. John Levis of New York's Bellevue Hospital's Hansen Disease Clinic said of America's documented cases of leprosy: 'There are probably many, many more and they are spreading." Most of those in the U.S. who are suffering from leprosy are from Mexico, India, Brazil, and the Caribbean. However, there are a few documented cases in which the person became infected with leprosy inside the U.S. The majority of the cases have been discovered in this nation's northeastern region. Once thought to be nearly eradicated in this country, TB is now making a strong comeback. In a recent interview with Mother Jones Magazine, Dr. Reichman of The New Jersey TB Clinic recently said: In the 1990's, cases among foreign born Americans rose from 29 percent to 41.6 percent. Antibiotic resistant strains from Mexico have migrated to Texas. Since three years ago, 16,000 new cases of TB were discovered in the United States. Half were foreign born. Strains of TB once only found in Mexico have migrated to the border states of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California. It will move north as illegal aliens work in restaurants as cooks, dishwashers, and food handlers. We sit on the edge of a potential catastrophe." In 2001, New York's Tuberculosis Control Program discovered that 81 percent of that city's new cases of TB were attributed to immigrants Cases of TB are now being found in many areas of the country, where there are high concentrations of illegal immigrants. In March of 2002, The Washington Post reported that Virginia's Prince William County experienced a 188 percent increase of TB infections over the previous year. Yes, the streets of Prince William County are over-run with illegal aliens seeking day-laborer jobs. Last year, the rate of TB in the northern part of Virginia rose 17 percent. The Va. Department of Health blamed the rise on that region's recent flood of illegal immigrants. Many strains of TB are being found in certain neighborhoods, which are dominated by illegal Latin American immigrants. The threats posed to our country by illegal immigration are many. However, our political leaders will undoubtedly continue to ignore them. Our own president is willing to place all Americans at risk, in exchange for securing the Latino vote for the Republican Party. If left unchecked, illegal immigration will destroy this nation one way or another.Last printed 56 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 57 Impact Ext – DiseaseIllegal immigrants spread dangerous diseases Fee, 98 (Allsion, “NOTE: FORBIDDING STATES FROM PROVIDING ESSENTIAL SOCIAL SERVICES TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS: THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF RECENT FEDERAL ACTION,” 7 B.U. Pub. Int. L.J. 93) [Charlie Stephens]Undocumented immigrants will not seek medical treatment if they fear being reported to authorities by their doctor. The health care system should focus on controlling health care costs and stopping the spread of preventable diseases. n110 Illegal immigrants commonly live in high-risk communities where poverty, poor [*110] housing conditions and poor nutrition are prevalent. As a result, they are more susceptible to infectious diseases such as tuberculosis. n111 Many illegal aliens earn their living as farm hands or in food services, handling food and often coming into contact with legal residents. n112 Additionally, migrant workers, both legal and illegal, tend to suffer higher rates of respiratory, infectious and digestive diseases than the general population. n113 These individuals are therefore more likely to suffer from debilitating preventable diseases that are communicable and could place the entire community at risk. Last printed 57 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 58 Impact Ext – Disease Illegal immigrants bring deadly, resistant diseases to America Wooldrige, BA in Journalism, 2003 (Frosty, 9/29/2003 “Disease Creeps in Along with Illegals,” http://www.frostywooldridge.com/articles/art_disease_creeps_in_along_with_illegals_2003.html) [Charlie Stephens]Across the country this week, hundreds of bus loads of illegal immigrants are bringing a message to Washington DC that they want better treatment and instant citizenship. What they don't mention is their reckless disregard for legally immigrating into the USA has created a growing health care crisis in America. They demand their rights, but they disregarded our rights by illegally crossing into our country without being health screened. It's what they are carrying that we don't want. There is another ticking bomb crossing our borders daily by the thousands-- entirely unregulated, unscreened and untracked in our nation. Their numbers average two per minute and over 800,000 annually, according the Center For Immigration Studies in Washington, DC. SARS and West Nile virus make big news, but other diseases are creeping into the heartland unnoticed. In the past 40 years, the US incidents of leprosy stood at 900 recorded cases. Today because of massive immigration from Third World countries, we have more than 7,000 people suffering with leprosy, "And those are the ones we know about," said Dr. John Levis, physician at Bellevue Hospital's Hansen's Disease Clinic in New York. "There are probably many, many more and they are spreading." Most of those infected in the United States are immigrants from global leprosy hot spots, places: Mexico, Brazil, India and the Caribbean. But, in the past six years, Levis and his colleagues have proved that a few of his patients — including a 73-year-old man from Queens who had never been out of the country and an elderly Jewish man from Westchester County, New York — have contracted leprosy in the United States. Leprosy's symptoms--bumpy rashes, skin indentations and loss of feeling in hands and feet. As a result, The disease is now officially endemic to the Northeastern United States for the first time ever. Another bug riding in the bodies of newcomers to America is tuberculosis. In a recent article from 'THE PATIENT PREDATOR', Dr. Reichman of New Jersey TB Clinic, "In the 1990s, cases among foreign born Americans rose from 29 percent to 41.6 percent. Anti biotic resistant strains from Mexico have migrated to Texas. Since three years ago, 16,000 new cases of TB were discovered in the United States. Half were foreign born. Strains of TB once found only in Mexico have migrated to border states of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California. It will move north as illegal aliens work in restaurants as cooks, dishwashers and food handlers. We sit on the edge of a potential catastrophe." Disease is another crisis 'sneaking' across our borders in the form of unrestricted illegal immigration. Once it's inside our country, it's our problem and we will be forced to pay for it. If American political leaders okay the matricula consular card, give them drivers licenses and assist illegal immigration by not enforcing our Homeland Security laws, American citizens and their children are susceptible to more diseases. Hepatitis A,B and C run rampant in fast food workers. These diseases kill. It's that simple and that harsh.Last printed 58 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 59 Impact Ext – DiseaseIllegal immigrants bring a plethora of for diseases into the U.S. that effect millions a year P.F. Wagner 07; Editing additions contributed by Dan Amato of the immigration website Diggers Realm; “The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration” http://www.usillegalaliens.com/impacts_of_illegal_immigration_diseases.htmlLegal immigrants are required to have medical screening to ensure that they do not bring any contagious diseases into the United States. Illegal aliens are not screened and many are carrying horrific third world diseases that do not belong in the USA. Many of these diseases are highly contagious and will infect citizens that come in contact with an infected illegal alien. This has already happened in restaurants, schools, and police forces. Malaria was eradicated from the USA in the 1940s but recently there were outbreaks in southern California, New Jersey, New York City, and Houston. Additionally, Malaria tainted blood has been discovered in the blood supply. Dengue was first recognized in the 1950s, affects most Asian countries and has become a leading cause of death among children in the infected areas. Heretofore unknown in the US, Dengue outbreaks have now occurred in the United States. Leprosy, a scourge of Biblical days, is caused by a bacillus agent and is now know as Hansen's Disease. In the 40 years prior to 2002, there were only 900 total cases of leprosy in the US. In the following three years there have been 9,000 cases and most were illegal aliens. As noted in the article Leprosy in America: new cause for concern by Dr. William Levis, head of the New York Hansen's Disease Clinic. "It's creeping into the U.S. ... This is a real phenomenon. It's a public health threat. New York is endemic now, and nobody's noticed." In the same article, Dr. Terry Williams, who runs a Houston-based clinic serving leprosy patients across southern Texas, said that the bulk of the cases treated by his clinic were immigrants. "A lot of our cases are imported," he said. "We see patients from everywhere--Africa, the Philippines, China, South America." (emphasis added) Hepatitis A-E is a viral infection that primarily attacks the liver. In 2004, more than 650 people contacted Hepatitis A at a single Chi-Chi's Mexican restaurant in Pennsylvania. Four latter died. Hepatitis B is one of the major diseases of mankind and is a serious global public health problem. It is estimated that 2 BILLION people are infected and about one million persons die each year. The new vaccine is only 95% effective in preventing an infection and will not cure a person who already has Hepatitis B, which results in a lifelong infection, cirrhosis (scarring) of the liver, liver cancer, liver failure, and early death. An estimated 1.3 million people in the US are currently infected. No vaccine is currently available to prevent Hepatitis C-E and treatment for chronic Hepatitis C costs about $1,500 per person. Tuberculosis (TB) kills approximately 2 million people each year. It is estimated that between 2002 and 2020, approximately 1,000,000,000 people will be newly infected, over 150 million people will get sick, and 36 million will die. TB is a highly contagious disease. Like the common cold, it spreads through the air. When infectious people cough, sneeze, talk or spit, they propel TB germs, known as bacilli, into the air. Each person with active TB will infect on average between 10 and 15 people every year. The United States currently has one of the lowest rates of TB in the world. Mexico has 10 times the rate of prevalence and many African countries along with Afghanistan, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Indonesia have rates that are 100 – 150 times higher. Making matters worse, a few years ago a Multi-Drug-Resistant (MDR) strain of TB has emerged that is resistant to all standard anti-TB drugs. Treating a single case of MDR TB costs over $250,000 and as much as $1,200,000 per person, and even with treatment about half of the patients with MDR-TB prematurely die. In an article in the Journal of the American Medical Assn., Dr. Reuben Granich, a lead investigator for the CDC commented on MDR-TB: "Evidence of it has surfaced in 38 of 61 California health jurisdictions, and it could ‘threaten the efficacy of TB control efforts,' Granich said. The infected were said to be four times as likely to die from the disease and twice as likely to transmit the disease to others ... Reluctant to label the infected as ‘illegal' or even ‘undocumented' aliens, the report notes that of the 407 known cases of MDR-TB, 84% were ‘foreign-born' patients, mainly from Mexico and the Philippines who'd been in the U.S. less than five years. The percentage of TB cases among the ‘foreign-born' jumped from 29% in 1993 to 53% as of last year." Recently, there was a TB Outbreak In Oklahoma City in a hospital affecting thousands. Hopefully, this will not be the new extensively drug-resistant XDR strain just being brought in by illegal aliens (now 4% of US cases) and which is currently impossible to cure at any cost. In any case, it would not be surprising to find that the source of the outbreak is an illegal alien working in the hospital or an infected resident worker who becameLast printed 59 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 60 infected through contact with an infected illegal alien since the TB rate for residents in the USA is very low. Last printed 60 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 61 Impact Ext – DiseaseIllegal immigrants spread deadly foreign pathogens and other diseases through the U.S. P.F. Wagner 07; Editing additions contributed by Dan Amato of the immigration website Diggers Realm; “The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration” http://www.usillegalaliens.com/impacts_of_illegal_immigration_diseases.htmlChagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis), endemic to South and Central America, is spread by infected triatomine bugs, known as the "kissing bugs," that bite people. It was unknown in the United States until fairly recently. It is now estimated that between 100,000 and 500,000 people in the US have Chagas Disease. Who is infected? Mostly illegal aliens. Since Chagas Disease is basically unknown outside of the illegal alien community most doctors won't recognize it and the blood supply just started being screened for it. Most cases of Chagas Disease that occur in patients other than illegal aliens are thought to be contracted from tainted blood – blood sold by illegal aliens with Chagas Disease before the blood supply started being tested for it as of August of 2006. HIV The number of illegal Mexican and Central American immigrants with HIV or AIDS is unknown, mostly because researchers rarely ask about immigration status. However, it is known that the rate of HIV infection among Latino women in California is about twice the rate of white women. At one free California health clinic, all of the women have HIV or AIDS. Most are Mexican or Central American "immigrants." Then there is Schistosomiasis, Guinea Worm Infection, Whooping cough, Cysticercosis, Morgellon's, and a host of others. All these diseases and pathogens, and a plethora of others that are not endemic to the US, are being brought in by unscreened illegal aliens who then spread them to an unsuspecting population. These diseases will give you something to think about the next time you are eating at a restaurant with the grunt work being done by illegal aliens who didn't have medical screening before preparing and handling your food. As recently reported in Hepatitis Risk for East Asians in New York, among east Asian immigrants in New York City, one person in seven carries the Hepatitis B virus and that researchers at New York Univ. School of Medicine, found that 15% of east Asians in New York - as many as 100,000 people - are chronic hepatitis carriers, with the rate highest among immigrants from China. That infection rate is 35 times the rate found in the general population. The article did not mention how many of the infected people were illegal aliens but odds are the vast majority were. Health reporter Bill Sardi noted: "Recently an outbreak of hepatitis traced to Chi-Chi's Mexican restaurant, in Pennsylvania was inexplicably traced to contaminated green onions, not the most obvious cause, undocumented food workers who harbored Hepatitis. For the most part, Hepatitis is a blood-borne, not a food-borne disease. The Hepatitis outbreak infected over 650 individuals, caused 9,000 Americans to undergo immune globulin shots, and killed 4 people. If Americans found out restaurants can commonly infect their customers from food workers, it would be a serious blow to the restaurant industry. Better blame the green onions. Let's concede the onions, grown in Mexico, were contaminated from fecal material containing Hepatitis. Did all the green onions imported from Mexico end up in one single restaurant? There were no other outbreaks of Hepatitis anywhere elsewhere from green onions. There were 13 restaurant workers who had Hepatitis. They were the likely source of the transmitted infection. While the unions resist mandatory Hepatitis screening and vaccination for food workers, the government mandates that newborn babies be jabbed with Hepatitis vaccines before they can leave the hospital. The logic in this defies understanding until one realizes that newborn babies of immigrant families can more easily acquire Hepatitis so all babies are given the vaccines." As noted in a May 2006 article, Milford taking harsher stance against illegals than Framingham, increased levels of TB are being noted and some municipalities are finally starting to take action to protect their citizens. As unfortunate as it may be, the US can not bear the financial burden for treating the world's sick, ill, and infected populace, but the Govt. should be protecting American citizens from the diseases being brought in by illegal aliens. How many more citizens will come down with Hepatitis, Leprosy, E-coli, or Chagas Disease from contact with an infected illegal alien before something is done? How many school children must get TB before our government takes action to protect them? Remember the movie Alien and how the creature popped out of infected bodies? The Guinea Worm is a mini-version. Maybe your kids can take advantage of the experience on show & tell day. If we screen legal aliens for contagious diseases, why are we allowing unscreened and contagious illegal aliens to roam the country infecting the citizenry? Diseases - collateral damage from a "victimless crime" to save ten cents on a head of lettuce.Last printed 61 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 62 Impact Ext – Disease Population migration empirically transmits deadly diseases Barnett and Walker, Saunder’s Company, ‘08 (Elizabeth D. Barnett, Maxwell Finland Laboratory for Infectious Diseases. Patricia F. Walker, Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases and International Medicine. November 2008. “Role of Immigrants and Migrants in Emerging Infectious Diseases” Medical Clinics of North America - Volume 92, Issue 6) Population migration has been associated with the spread of diseases ranging from plague, smallpox, measles, and syphilis to, more recently, HIV and TB. Travel and trade are also associated with the spread of disease vectors, such as the mosquito vectors for yellow fever and dengue fever.[11] The rapidity of air travel has facilitated the spread even of diseases with short incubation periods such as influenza and measles. [12] , [13] A 2003 Institute of Medicine report identified 13 factors affecting the appearance of new and emerging infectious diseases, many of which were related to migrating populations.[14] Migrant populations can, however, have other roles in changing the pattern of diseases present in a population. Some chronic conditions are associated with remote acquisition of infections, such as American trypanosomiasis or Chagas disease (heart and esophageal disease), the parasitic infection cysticercosis (seizure disorders), and hepatitis B and C infection (hepatic cirrhosis). The incidence of some cancers (hepatocellular carcinoma, cervical cancer) in the future may also be affected by the prevalence of infections such as hepatitis B and C and human papillomavirus (HPV) in mobile populations resettling in areas where these infections are less common.Immigrants transmit infectious diseases Barnett and Walker, Saunder’s Company, ‘08 (Elizabeth D. Barnett, Maxwell Finland Laboratory for Infectious Diseases. Patricia F. Walker, Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases and International Medicine. November 2008. “Role of Immigrants and Migrants in Emerging Infectious Diseases” Medical Clinics of North America - Volume 92, Issue 6) Immigrants may have a direct role in transmitting acute infectious diseases from one geographic location to another. This concern is especially great when large groups, such as refugees, are resettled to locations around the world. Since 2004, the resettlement of refugee populations has been disrupted in Kenya, Tanzania, Thailand, Ethiopia, and Ivory Coast by outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases including measles, mumps, rubella, polio, pertussis, hepatitis A, and typhoid fever. The planned movement of 8000 Liberian refugees scheduled to begin in June 2003 and conclude in April 2004 was interrupted several times by outbreaks of varicella, measles, o'nyong-nyong fever, and rubella.[15] During this period, 16 cases of varicella were imported into four states and an infant who had congenital rubella infection was born to a mother who had asymptomatic infection.[16] Experts in refugee resettlement have proposed immunization of large mobile populations before resettlement to reduce the spread of infectious diseases and to realize a cost-savings compared with administering all vaccines in the destination country.[17] The United States and Canada, through successful routine immunization programs, have reduced the rates of vaccine-preventable diseases to extremely low levels in the general population.[18] Disease due to Haemophilus influenzae type b has decreased by more than 99%, and most cases of measles and rubella in the United States are now imported or associated with imported cases. [19] , [20] , [21] Health care professionals have become less familiar with the typical clinical manifestations of some of these infections, leading to potential delays in diagnosis, as illustrated by several recent outbreaks of measles associated with children adopted internationally.[22] Other diseases, including varicella, pneumococcal disease, and pertussis, have been reduced significantly by routine childhood immunization, although clinicians continue with some regularity to see patients who have these diseases. [23] , [24] , [25] The major role of clinicians when evaluating newly arrived immigrants is to maintain a high index of suspicion for diseases that have become rare in the United States. Immigrants may not have received in their country of origin vaccines given routinely in North America, or may have had exposures that would be rare in North America.Doctors unfamiliar with diseases can’t treat them Barnett and Walker, Saunder’s Company, ‘08 (Elizabeth D. Barnett, Maxwell Finland Laboratory for Infectious Diseases. Patricia F. Walker, Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases and International Medicine. November 2008. “Role of Immigrants and Migrants in Emerging Infectious Diseases” Medical Clinics of North America - Volume 92, Issue 6) Immigrants may present with conditions unfamiliar to American-trained health care professionals, resulting in delays in diagnosis. Dermatologic conditions are especially challenging. Chronic conditions such as leprosy, leishmaniasis, and filarial disease can provide diagnostic dilemmas and may not be recognized easily. Keystone[45] provides an excellent overview of skin conditions of immigrants, and contrasts these with those likely to be seen in travelers. Arriving at the correct diagnosis often requires detailed information from the patient about migration history, access to specialized laboratories that can assist in making a diagnosis, and, for some diseases, access to specialized medications with limited availability. Once a diagnosis is made, additional challenges include addressing the stigma associated with diseases such as Hansen's disease (leprosy), the long period of treatment required (sometimes with specialized medications), and, with conditions such as visceral leishmaniasis, addressing the possibility of HIV coinfection.Last printed 62 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 63Impact – Disease => Poverty Diseases perpetuate poverty Sachs, Columbia University, 05 (Prof. JD Sachs, Ph,D. Economist and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. “Global health leadership and management” 2005. Pgs. 113-117)Last printed 63 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 64 Impact – Disease => State failure Disease leads to state failure Sachs, Columbia University, 05 (Prof. JD Sachs, Ph,D. Economist and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. “Global health leadership and management” 2005. Pgs. 113-117)Migrant isolation patterns most susceptible to disease Holtgrave and Crosby, Center for AIDS Research, 02 (David R. Holtgrave & R.A. Crosby, Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, Center for AIDS Research, 8-5-02, http://sti.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/79/1/62) Several causal mechanisms have been postulated for the linkages between social capital and health: (a) social isolation has been linked to poor health and socially isolated individuals tend to live in areas low in social capital ; (b) social capital may influence healthy behaviours, in part, by establishing social norms supporting those behaviours; (c) social capital may lead to the development of, and foster accessibility to, healthcare services; (d) social capital may foster mutual trust and respect leading residents of an area to take more responsibility for each other; and (e) social capital may foster egalitarian democratic political participation and thereby lead to the development of policies that protect all citizens.3 Within the literature on social capital and public health, however, the relation of social capital to infectious diseases has received relatively little attention.12 Cohen et al correlated gonorrhoea rates at the block level with a "broken windows" index that could be a proxy for the lack of social capital in a community.13 Thomas and Thomas observed that migration patterns appeared to contribute to racial disparities in sexually transmitted disease in a rural county, and they postulated that these migration patterns served to erode the social capital of the community.14Impoverished are prone to diseases Holtgrave and Crosby, Center for AIDS Research, 02 (David R. Holtgrave & R.A. Crosby, Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, Center for AIDS Research, 8-5-02, http://sti.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/79/1/62) The relation between social capital is especially interesting to explore because while social capital would seem to build the social infrastructure for a community to prevent and respond to infectious disease outbreaks, higher levels of trusting social interactions also could lead to increased opportunities for disease transmission. The association of social capital with health measures is often posited to be related to, or mediated by, the key societal variables of poverty and income inequality.2,10,11,15 Therefore, any exploration of the correlation between social capital and infectious diseases should include examination of the interrelations with poverty and income inequality as well.Last printed 64 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 65 Disease Impacts Social environments dictate the bearing on diseases Bynum, The Lancet, 08 (Bill Bynum, The Lancet, “Road Maps to Health,” Volume 372, Issue 9650, 8 November 2008-14 November 2008, Pages 1626-1627) Is health or disease the default mode of the human condition? Are we born healthy and become sick, or do we carry from our conceptions the seeds of disease? The modern answer to this old question, posed so poignantly by Alexander Pope, is not either/or, but both/and. In our age of genomics, it would be a brave commentator who would discount the role of genes in the functions and dysfunctions of our bodies. It would be equally short sighted to discount the role of our physical and social environments in health and disease, however these two elusive terms might be defined. Consider the following categories: environment, the moral dimension of moderation, occupation, poverty, and politics. Each has had its analysts in the long history of medicine. We are not the first generation to appreciate that how and where we live has a powerful bearing on the diseases that plague us. The environment was a particularly powerful force because of the traditional assumption of what biologists call “soft” heredity, or the inheritance of acquired characters. It is sometimes dubbed Lamarckianism, but that is a mistake, because Jean-Baptiste Lamarck was merely operating within the traditional explanatory paradigm when he argued that giraffes can acquire long necks by generations of them stretching to eat the leaves at the tops of trees. The major cause of poverty is disease Bynum, The Lancet, 08 (Bill Bynum, The Lancet, “Road Maps to Health,” Volume 372, Issue 9650, 8 November 2008-14 November 2008, Pages 1626-1627) Disraeli's comment could have been at the masthead of the Victorian public-health movement, for poverty and its health consequences became leading candidates in the social investigations of death rates that drove reform. Villermé's counterpart in Britain was Edwin Chadwick (1800–90), and like Villermé, Chadwick was much concerned with the striking differential mortality between rich and poor. Chadwick, a lawyer and disciple of the utilitarian Jeremy Bentham (1748–1832), became interested in health issues through his concern with the English Poor Laws. He masterminded their systematic examination in 1832–34, largely wrote the report that led to the New Poor Law of 1834, and administered his brain-child for a decade. He became increasingly aware that a major cause of poverty was disease, as breadwinners fell ill and could not work, and medical expenses placed strains on precarious family budgets. Chadwick's major work, Report on the Sanitary Condition of the Labouring Population of Great Britain (1842), documented with the newly available numerical techniques of the early Victorian period (called by them “statistics”, although little more than systematic enumeration), showed how gentry, tradesmen, and labourers in Manchester, had average ages of death of 38, 20, and 17 years, respectively. Much of this discrepancy was, as he recognised, due to the much higher child mortality of working families, but even among adults, there were still major differences. His conclusion was clear: poor people have lower life expectancies than rich ones.Ensuring equality means preventing diseases Bynum, The Lancet, 08 (Bill Bynum, The Lancet, “Road Maps to Health,” Volume 372, Issue 9650, 8 November 2008-14 November 2008, Pages 1626-1627) Traditional explanations of poverty were moral in their implications. The poor were feckless, given to drunkenness and other vices, and spent what money they had unwisely. A thrifty labourer, so the scenario went, could rise above his circumstances, with discipline and determination. The gospel of Self-Help, elaborated so powerfully by Samuel Smiles (1812–1904), an unsuccessful doctor turned successful author, preached all the middle-class virtues, and made the rags to riches trajectory part of modern folklore. Chadwick would not have demurred except for one thing: disease. Disease pauperised large portions of the labouring population, and needed to be prevented to give everyone an equal playing field. Eliminate the filth diseases of overcrowding and insanitary living conditions, and the whole nation would be better off. Disease causes poverty.Last printed 65 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 66 Disease Impacts Even conservative estimates concede that a global epidemic will kill over 100 million people—no other threat compares in likelihood or lethality Falkenrath 06 (Richard A. Falkenrath, Former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Policy, Former Plans within the Office of Homeland Security, and Former Director for Proliferation Strategy on the National Security Council, “PUBLIC HEALTH MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS,” Committee on Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, CQ Congressional Testimony, March 16, 2006 Thursday, pg. l/n) A catastrophic disease event is admittedly an extreme scenario, residing at the very highest end of the threat spectrum. With respect to manmade threats - bioterrorism - I am not suggesting that such a scenario can be easily effectuated or is imminent. Nonetheless, I do not believe that the trends are in our favor. With every passing year, the latent technological potential of states and non-state actors to use disease effectively as a weapon rises inexorably. With respect to naturally occurring disease threats, no one can estimate precisely the likelihood, timing, or consequence of the appearance of a new human pathogen.5 However, for at least one potentially catastrophic disease, even the conservative World Health Organization concludes that "the world may be on the brink of another pandemic."6 According to the WHO, a pandemic along the lines of the relatively mild pandemic of 1957 would result in 2 million to 7.4 million deaths worldwide. A pandemic with the death rate of the 1918 Spanish flu - perhaps the most extreme human disease event in history - could result in several million fatalities in the United States and perhaps over one hundred million abroad. In sum, when viewed in comparison to all other conceivable threats to U.S. national security, the catastrophic disease threat is and for the foreseeable future will remain the gravest danger we face. No state, no terrorist group, no ideology or system of government, no other tactic or target or category of weapons, no technological accident, and no other natural phenomenon, presents as terrifying a combination of likelihood, poor defenses and countermeasures, and consequence. Infectious diseases are the greatest threat to mankind. Stefansson 03 (Halldor, social anthropologist and Head of the Science and Society Office of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory in Heidelberg, Germany; "Infectious Diseases and Bioweapons;" http://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v4/n6s/full/embor843.html) Microorganisms—parasites, bacteria and viruses—are the invisible, mindless rulers of the animate world. They evolve, mutate and recombine to find their way through the defences of 'higher' organisms with devastating consequences. From an evolutionary perspective they are 'the fittest' and the chances are slim that human ingenuity will ever get the better of them. One in three people in the world may be infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB), and people with multiple HIV infections may become the source of new, even more virulent, strains (see the articles by P. van Helden and R. Weiss, in this issue). These scourges cannot be eradicated with the tools available at present. The best we can hope for is a gradual advancement in knowledge and technologies that allow us to slow down, restrict or contain the pathogenic onslaught. Such successes, as marginal as they may appear, are of vital importance to humanity, because infectious diseases remain the greatest cause of death and suffering in the world, killing more people than famine, war, accidents or crime.Last printed 66 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 67 Impact Module – Drug TraffickingDrug trafficking from illegal immigration becoming an increasing problem Republican Herald 09 (Ben Wolfgang, Republican Herald, 5-17-09, http://www.republicanherald.com/news/1.21977) Democrat Joe Devine wants to deliver justice. A 33-year U.S. Postal Service veteran, Devine, Pottsville, is challenging county Sheriff Joseph G. Groody in Tuesday's Primary Election. "Every citizen has a right to challenge the authorities," Devine told The Republican-Herald editorial board last week. "I'm not backed by any machine." He said that while he respects Groody, he wants voters in Schuylkill County to have a fair choice. Groody, a former Ashland police officer, has not yet been elected sheriff. He was appointed to the office last year after former Sheriff Harold Rowan resigned. Devine, who also served in the Air Force and 21 years in the Navy Reserves, cited illegal immigration and drug trafficking as the biggest problems facing Schuylkill County. "With the drugs come the burglaries, assaults," Devine said. Should he become sheriff - if he wins the primary, he'll likely face Republican Dale L. Repp, 57, of North Manheim Township, in the November General Election - he said he'd use all powers available to the sheriff's office to bring drug dealers to justice. He said the sheriff's central booking database brings local law enforcement into "the 2009 era of nailing these people." He also suggested another countywide database for tracking any and all "illegal aliens," although he conceded that database may be hard to assemble. "I think the problems that come into Schuylkill County are not directly because of the people born and raised here," Devine said. "It's a quick entrance and exit." He cited the county's close proximity to Washington, D.C., New York City, Philadelphia and other major urban centers as an explanation for drug and other crime problems. He also drew a distinction between the terms "illegal immigrant" and "illegal alien," referring to immigrants as only individuals who come into the country legally. Devine said he'd work with federal and state agencies to bring illegal aliens to justice. [Insert]Last printed 67 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 68 Impact Ext – Drug TraffickingIllegal immigrants supply America with the majority of it’s drug supply Staten, ENN Publisher, 97 (C.L., 5/28/97, “The Mexico/USA Border: A Gathering Storm,” http://www.emergency.com/mexusa97.htm) [Charlie Stephens]It would appear that the illegal immigration problem is also tied to the drug trafficking problem. The trips of literally hundreds of so-called "mules," illegal aliens carrying drugs and attempting to enter the United States, are reportedly facilitated each week by the Mexican drug cartels. They are allegedly provided with vehicles, fraudulent identification papers, and information about the best points of entry. In some cases, both U.S. and Mexican Custom's officials are also allegedly bribed to "look the other way" and ensure their easy crossing of the border. Specifically in regard to drugs, according to counter-drug officials, an estimated 75% of all cocaine and 40% of all heroin that reaches the streets of America was smuggled through Mexico. DEA agents say that Mexican drug lords have become as powerful or more powerful than those leading the Colombian cartels. A 1996 San Francisco Chronicle article said that there is evidence that the Mexican drug lords are spending in excess of $500 million dollars a year to bribe and corrupt Mexican police and military officials.Last printed 68 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 69Impact Ext – Drug TraffickingIllegal immigration spurs drug trafficking Pete Bosak 6/22/08; “Illegal Immigration, drug trafficking on rise along I-80” Americans for Legal Immigration, http://www.alipac.us/article3293.htmlMotorists traveling Interstate 80 would likely be stunned if they knew how much criminal activity was riding along the highway with them. In 2007, Rockview state police arrested 109 illegal immigrants on I-80 in Centre County. Already this year, state police at Rockview have nabbed 157 illegal immigrants on the highway. Illegal immigrants and drug runners with fistfuls of cash and packages of narcotics travel the highway, police say. And state police troopers based at Rockview are doing something about it. TOPICS: Illegal Immigration, illegal immigrants, traveling Interstate 80, drug trafficking, I-80, state police troopers, drug runners, Centre County, Safe Highway Initiative Through Effective Law Enforcement Detection, or SHIELD, drug money, criminal activity, Armed with training through a fairly new patrol initiative, Safe Highway Initiative Through Effective Law Enforcement Detection, or SHIELD, state police at Rockview already have set a number of records for arrests and the number of illegal immigrants taken into custody on I-80. In 2007, Rockview state police arrested 109 illegal immigrants on I-80 in Centre County, according to state police Trooper David McGarvey, public information officer for Troop G based in Hollidaysburg. Already this year, state police at Rockview have nabbed 157 illegal immigrants on the highway, he said. While the state police do not keep formal statistics on SHIELD-related arrests and seizures, Sgt. Wayne Kline, who works with the SHIELD program based in Harrisburg, said Rockview’s arrests have noticeably jumped in the past year. “It is definitely evident the numbers have increased for Rockview in that Milesburg area,” Kline said. The jump in numbers can be attributed to SHIELD training, McGarvey said. In 2007, Rockview had about four troopers who had SHIELD training, he said, compared with eight to 10 troopers now trained. “So the logical conclusion is they would have higher numbers,” McGarvey said. But it’s not only illegal immigrant apprehension that is showing a marked increase. In the past 12 months, state troopers at Rockview have seized almost $775,000 in drug money, said state police Sgt. Jim Emigh, station commander at Rockview. “People would be shocked to know of the criminal activity that goes through Centre County on the interstate,” Emigh said. In January, a state trooper on a SHIELD detail pulled over a car on a routine traffic stop but picked up on signs of criminal activity taught during the specialized training. Consent was granted to search the vehicle, and $359,000 in alleged drug money was found in a hidden compartment. In February, state police seized two grams of marijuana and $20,000 in cash on the interstate, then another $35,000 in alleged drug money later that month, Emigh said. In March, state police seized 60 pounds of marijuana and $900 in cash. In April, another traffic stop in which a trooper’s training told him something was not right resulted in another $351,000 seizure of drug money. Last printed 69 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 70 Impact – Sex traffickingIllegal immigrants are the main supply of sex trafficking victims in the United States Schurman-Kauflin, Ph.D. Violent Crimes Institute, LLC, 2006 (Deborah, “Profiling Sex Trafficking: Illegal Immigrants At Risk,” http://www.drdsk.com/articles.html#SexTrafficking)Women and girls are trafficked from many countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Mexico is the number one source for young female sex slaves in North America. Tlaxcala, in Central Mexico serves as a hotbed for slave traders. Young women and girls are abducted, tricked, and sometimes sold by poor families into a caged life. Highly prized are 12 year old girls sneaking across the border into the United States. The girls are grabbed by Los Lenones, aka pimps, and dragged to unfamiliar areas where they are 'broken in.' It is well known that this often occurs in Mexico. The initiation process entails 20-30 men per day having brutal sex with the girls and women. Victims are beaten, drugged, and repeatedly raped until their wills are broken. It is then that the sale is possible. Buyers' can travel to various countries and actually buy females for the sole purpose of using them as sex slaves in the United States. Once the 'buyer' arrives in a country, it is easy to find 'sellers' ready to move their 'merchandise.' In some instances, a buyer is brought to a secluded location, where sellers actually make the female victims strip. This is to ensure that the victim looks good and has no visible defects. Likewise, in parts of Mexico, captives are made to parade in front of potential customers, much like cattle at auction. Vendors are even present to sell snacks.Moral obligation to fight trafficking – affront to the idea that each life has dignity and worth Rep. Deborah Pryce 2006 (R Ohio, Humanevents.com, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=14618)We have a moral obligation to fight this evil. Trafficking in human beings is an assault on our most cherished beliefs, that every human being has freedom and dignity and worth. A nation that stands for the freedom and dignity of every human being cannot tolerate the exploitation of the innocent on its own soil. This needs to be a national priority, because it is a global outrage.Last printed 70 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 71 Impact Ext – Sex TraffickingFemales are abducted for sex trafficking during the process of illegal immigration Schurman-Kauflin, Ph.D. Violent Crimes Institute, LLC, 2006 (Deborah, “Profiling Sex Trafficking: Illegal Immigrants At Risk,” http://www.drdsk.com/articles.html#SexTrafficking) The females are usually young and idealistic. Many hope to come to the United States for a better life, and in the process, they are re-routed into terror. Some make the mistake of trusting someone who lies to them. Others attempt to sneak into the U.S. and get kidnapped along the way. And yet others are simply sold by parents. These girls tend to be loyal but emotionally or physically abandoned. They are surrounded by high stress levels and are often uneducated and unskilled. They truly desire the opportunity to work in the U.S. Sadly, many come from countries where police are as corrupt as their traffickers, so when they reach the States, they are reluctant to seek the help of law enforcement.Sex trafficking victims are raped and subjected to multiple psychological harms and diseases Department of Health and Human Services, No date given (“Sex Trafficking Fact Sheet,” http://www.acf.hhs.gov/trafficking/about/fact_sex.pdf) [Charlie Stephens] Sex traffickers frequently subject their victims to debt-bondage, an illegal practice in which the traffickers tell their victims that they owe money (often relating to the victims’ living expenses and transport into the country) and that they must pledge their personal services to repay the debt. Sex traffickers use a variety of methods to “condition” their victims including starvation, confinement, beatings, physical abuse, rape, gang rape, threats of violence to the victims and the victims’ families, forced drug use and the threat of shaming their victims by revealing their activities to their family and their families’ friends. Victims face numerous health risks. Physical risks include drug and alcohol addiction; physical injuries (broken bones, concussions, burns, vaginal/anal tearings); traumatic brain injury (TBI) resulting in memory loss, dizziness, headaches, numbness; sexually transmitted diseases (e.g., HIV/AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, UTIs, pubic lice); sterility, miscarriages, menstrual problems; other diseases (e.g., TB, hepatitis, malaria, pneumonia); and forced or coerced abortions. Psychological harms include mind/body separation/disassociated ego states, shame, grief, fear, distrust, hatred of men, self-hatred, suicide, and suicidal thoughts. Victims are at risk for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) – acute anxiety, depression, insomnia, physical hyperalertness, self-loathing that is long-lasting and resistant to change (complex- PTSD).Rape is a fate worse than death and causes multiple psychological problems to the victim Glazer, Assistant D.A. of Bronx County, 97 (Yale, "Child Rapists Beware! The Death Penalty and Louisiana's Amended Aggravated Rape Statute", American Journal of Criminal Law, Fall, 25 Am. J. Crim. L. 79) Rape is one of the fastest growing violent crimes reported in the United States; it is estimated that a rape is reported every two to six minutes and that one of every six women will be raped at some point in their lives. Studies of rape show it to be a violent and brutal crime, often involving sexual humiliation and physical abuse. "Rape is unique among acts of violence: it shatters not only a victim's physical well-being but also her emotional world. Psychologists say that the surviving victim's sense of self-esteem, security and basic trust may be irreparably damaged." Rape has been called a "fate worse than death." As a result of being raped, victims often suffer extreme trauma, both physically and emotionally. The symptoms experienced by rape victims have been compared in severity to post-traumatic stress disorder observed in war veterans. Rape often induces a cycle of behavioral problems that extend well beyond the time when the physical damage from the assault has healed. Women often experience "intense attacks on [their] psychic equilibrium," often requiring intensive psychotherapy treatments. Other long-term consequences of rape include self-destructive behavior, impaired self-esteem, interpersonal problems, and a greater likelihood of becoming a drug or alcohol addict.Last printed 71 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 72 Impact – Sex Crimes1 million sex crimes result from illegal immigrants Schurman-Kauflin, Ph.D. Violent Crimes Institute, 2006 (Deborah, “The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration: Nearly One Million Sex Crimes Committed by Illegal Immigrants in the United States,” http://www.drdsk.com/articles.html#Illegals) [Charlie Stephens]After conducting a 12 month in-depth study of illegal immigrants who committed sex crimes and murders for the time period of January 1999 through April 2006 , it is clear that the U.S. public faces a dangerous threat from sex predators who cross the U.S. borders illegally. There were 1500 cases analyzed in depth. They included: serial rapes, serial murders, sexual homicides, and child molestation committed by illegal immigrants. Police reports, public records, interviews with police, and media accounts were all included. Offenders were located in 36 states, but it is clear, that the most of the offenders were located in states with the highest numbers of illegal immigrants. California was number one, followed by Texas, Arizona, New Jersey, New York, and Florida. Based on population numbers of 12,000,000 illegal immigrants and the fact that young males make up more of this population than the general U.S. population, sex offenders in the illegal immigrant group make up a higher percentage. When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended. Based on this 2% figure, which is conservative, there are approximately 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States. This translates to 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders coming across U.S. borders illegally per day. The 1500 offenders in this study had a total of 5,999 victims. Each sex offender averaged 4 victims. This places the estimate for victimization numbers around 960,000 for the 88 months examined in this study.Last printed 72 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 73 AT: Immigrants Help the EconomyImmigration fuels the upper class – contributes little to economy Biggs, staff of the House Banking Committee, 97 (Andrew G. Biggs, staff of the House of Banking Committee, November 14, 1997, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T7001803750&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T7001803757& cisb=22_T7001803756&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8176&docNo=10 Lexis) Recent studies by the Rand Corporation and the National Academy of Sciences find that immigration contributes little overall to the economy. Moreover, the meager gains are unequally divided. The upper classes are the beneficiaries of low cost restaurant workers, landscaping and housekeeping, while working-class employees accept lower wages or even leave their home regions in order to avoid immigrant competition. The United States is like a company that every employee wants to work for or a college that every student wants to attend. The best and brightest of every country wish to live in the United States for its prosperity, freedom and tolerance. To use family reunification rather than skills and education as the criteria for admitting immigrants is like the company intentionally hiring inferior employees or the college turning away the best applicants. The question is not one of free trade versus protectionism. It is whether America wants to be a high-skill, high-wage economy or a unskilled economy that attracts jobs based on low labor costs.Last printed 73 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 74 2NC OverviewBecause of the economic recession, illegal immigrants aren’t able to find any jobs so are staying in their home countries. Social services act as a magnet toward people who want to find better economic opportunities than those available in their country. This causes them to come to America and draw on the social services the plan offers in order to create a better life. This destroys the economy because not only will this cost thousands to tax payers, but illegal immigrants are often hired by corrupt corporations for very low wages, reducing potential jobs for tax-paying citizens. This is bad because failure to address the issues that make the economy worse and the impact is mostly felt on developing capitalist systems because their economic systems are not developed enough to survive a recession. This results in multiple internal links into violence and wars: religious zealots, authoritarian takeover, and political radicals.The disadvantage outweighs case: 1. Magnitude: When war breaks out on a global scale, it will eventually escalate as power wars develop and other countries get dragged in. 2. Timeframe/Probability: The economic recession we are in currently proves just how close we are to reaching the full collapse, unless we get rid of the reasons we are in the recession, illegal immigrants, will we be able to prevent this full-blown war. 3. Turns case – a. Malanga ’06 states that illegal immigrants crowd out social services from citizens obtaining benefits, meaning their impact is inevitable after plan passage. b. Immigration crowds out social services – turns case Rector 06 - Senior Research Fellow in Domestic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. [Robert E., "Importing Poverty: Immigration and Poverty in the United States: A Book of Charts" http://www.heritage.org/research/immigration/sr9.cfm]Because immigrants have comparatively low education levels, they have a high propensity to be poor and thus to receive welfare benefits. The fiscal impact of this is somewhat offset by the fact that illegal immigrants, who constitute around a third of all immigrants, are ineligible for most welfare programs. Welfare benefits are only part of the costs that low-skill immigrants impose on government. The National Academy of Sciences estimated that, on average, each immigrant without a high school education creates a net cost to gov ernment (i.e., benefits received minus taxes paid) of $89,000 over the course of his or her lifetime. The net cost to government of low- skill immigrants is so large that even when the projected taxes and benefits of the immigrant’s descendents over the next 300 years are added into the calculation, the long-term net present value to the govern ment of immigrants without a high school education remains negative.[20]Last printed 74 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 75 Uniqueness Extensions1. Extend NYT 5/14 - The economic recession is creating a shortage of jobs, especially among ones that require little skills. Without job opportunities Illegal immigrants don’t come to the United States.2. Immigration has substantially reduced - economy and enforcement Mcclathy Newspapers, 7/23 (Mcclathy Newspapers, 7/23/09 The McClatchy Company is the third-largest newspaper company in the United States, a leading newspaper and internet publisher dedicated to the values of quality journalism, free expression and community service http://www.mcclatchy.com) Their job prospects battered by a deep recession, fewer immigrants are being caught trying to cross illegally into the United States than at any time since the 1970s, two reports based on new federal data say. But it remains unclear whether many illegal immigrants already here are heading back home. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border are down 34 percent over the past two years, according to new U.S. Department of Homeland Security data — and on pace to be even lower in fiscal 2009. With record removals of unauthorized migrants in the U.S. and increased spending on border security, the economic and enforcement barriers to crossing into California and other Southwestern states have rarely been higher, federal officials and immigration experts say. "It’s far riskier to cross the border, it costs more, and the rewards are simply not there — the jobs that have driven people here for 40 years," said Al Camarillo, a Stanford historian who follows Latin American immigration. A new Pew Research Center report estimates that for the 12 months ending in February 2009, the net migration between Mexico and the U.S. — the number of people coming to the U.S. minus those returning to Mexico — was about 203,000, less than half of the 547,000 two years earlier. 3. More illegal immigrants are leaving than coming Iliff, staff writer, 2/9/09 (Laurence, Dallas Morning News, “Recession slows illegal border crossings,” http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/world/mexico/stories/DN-immigration_09int.ART.State.Edition1.4c445b0.html) [Charlie Stephens] Analysts agree that the number of illegal Mexican immigrants in the U.S. is falling for the first time in a long time as young people stay put in places like San Luis Potosí and do not replenish those who return home for a variety of reasons, some of them economic ones. Meléndez, the 18-year-old from Villa Juárez, said word from his friend in Dallas is that the employment situation is dicey for illegal workers. "She says she's working just two days a week, so I am trying to make it here for now," he said. "Maybe I'll go later." At the same time that many would-be immigrants are staying put, a recent study suggested that an exodus of immigrants from the U.S. was under way, although other U.S. and Mexican authorities dispute that. Citing U.S. Census Bureau data, a July study by the "pro-immigrant, low-immigration" Center for Immigration Studies found that the Hispanic illegal immigrant population had "declined by 11 percent through May 2008 after hitting a peak in August 2007." The decline, it said, was 1.3 million people – from 12.5 million to 11.2 million – and was mostly "illegal immigrants leaving on their own."4. Illegal immigration decreasing Meckler and Simpson, 5/21/09 (Laura and Cam, staff writers, Wall Street Journal, “White House, Lawmakers to meet on immigration,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124286885555741791.html?mod=relevancy) [Charlie Stephens]Federal data released Wednesday suggest illegal immigration into the U.S. is approaching a low for modern times, a decline analysts have pegged to the recession. Apprehensions along the border with Mexico are down 27% during the current fiscal year compared with the same period a year ago, even as enforcement efforts have been increased. If the trend continues, this year's decline would be steeper than the 24.5% drop in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Last printed 75 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 76 AT: OUR AFF solves the ImpactNo risk of offense – immigration short-circuits aff solvency –1. faster impact – economic collapse will occur before the effects of the plan are in place – our internal links are based on plan passage2. we control the internal link to economy – illegal immigrants causes high unemployment – ensures we fall back into recession Douglas A. McIntyre 6 – 29 – 09. Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St., LLC. He has previously been the Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of Financial World Magazine. He has been CEO of FutureSource, LLC and On2 Technologies, Inc. He has served on the board of directors of Vicinity Corporation, The Street.com, and Edgar Online. McIntyre is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard. [“With Unemployment Moving To 9.6%, Economic Impact Of Jobs Is Just Beginning”]http://247wallst.com/2009/06/29/with-unemployment- moving-to-9-6-economic-impact-of-jobs-is-just-beginning/Unemployment is called a “lagging” indicator by most economists. The jobless rate recovery often runs a quarter or two behind an upturn in GDP. A prolonged period of unemployment higher than 10% may break that mold. A large enough number of people without work could hamper consumer spending enough that some parts of the economy could move back into a recession next year. The ranks of the unemployed are rarely good credit risks. This poses important problems for banks which hope to see the quality of their loan portfolios begin to rebound. There is a point at which unemployment becomes both a lagging and leading economic indicator. It shows the end of one recession and foretells the beginning of another if double-digit joblessness persists for any period beyond next year. The modern economy has not experienced this but once in the last several decades. That was in the early 1980s. The banking system was not as riddled with problems among its largest firms then and the auto industry was not in need of nearly complete nationalization.3. Crowds out social services and diverts welfare benefits from intended targets Rector 06 - Senior Research Fellow in Domestic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. [Robert E., "Importing Poverty: Immigration and Poverty in the United States: A Book of Charts" http://www.heritage.org/research/immigration/sr9.cfm]Because immigrants have comparatively low education levels, they have a high propensity to be poor and thus to receive welfare benefits. The fiscal impact of this is somewhat offset by the fact that illegal immigrants, who constitute around a third of all immigrants, are ineligible for most welfare programs. Welfare benefits are only part of the costs that low-skill immigrants impose on government. The National Academy of Sciences estimated that, on average, each immigrant without a high school education creates a net cost to gov ernment (i.e., benefits received minus taxes paid) of $89,000 over the course of his or her lifetime. The net cost to government of low- skill immigrants is so large that even when the projected taxes and benefits of the immigrant’s descendents over the next 300 years are added into the calculation, the long-term net present value to the govern ment of immigrants without a high school education remains negative.[20]Last printed 76 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 77 AT: Immigration will increase when the economy improves1. Our impacts are linear and systemic- even if they win the uniqueness will change at some point- we still win that an increase in immigration now will make our impacts worse2. And our uniqueness is not temporary- economic recovery will not fix unemployment Lee, 7-2 (Don- journalist for the LA times specializing in economics, LA Times, “Hiring might not rebound in an economic recovery” July 2, 2009 http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobless-recovery2-2009jul02,1,5303958.story Even as the nation's economy begins clawing its way out of the worst recession in 60 years, there are growing signs that this recovery could come with an unsettling twist: The wheels of commerce may begin to turn again without any substantial boost in jobs. Not only is the national u nemployment rate, now 9.4%, likely to climb into double digits later this year, but it is also expected to remain there well into 2010, economists say. That would prolong the misery of the unemployed, squeeze retailers and other businesses, and add millions of dollars in government costs and lost productivity. It could even threaten the recovery itself. Though it's common for the jobless rate to keep climbing for a time after economic output turns positive, the aftermath of the last two downturns , in 1990-91 and 2001, introduced the idea of a "jobless recovery ." Even though the economy improved, many unemployed workers discovered that jobs as good as the ones they'd lost were almost impossible to fin d. This time, many economists say, there are new factors that could make the problem worse. Many more layoffs in this recession have been permanent, not temporary. And mass layoffs are continuing at a record pace; in May they cost nearly 313,000 workers their jobs. Since the recession began in December 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 6 million payroll jobs. That tally is expected to grow today when the Labor Department releases the June employment figures. And nobel prize winner Paul Kruger agrees Parker, 7-1 (Jennifer, ABC News, Quoting Princeton Economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Kruger, “Krugman: U.S. Headed for 'Jobless' Recovery” July 1, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=7966402) Nobel-Prize winning economist Paul Krugman said the nation is on course for a "prolonged jobless" economic recovery unless the Obama administration steps in with a second round of government stimulus money. "The fact of the matter is that the unemployment rate is much worse than the administration contemplated or that most people expected," Krugman told ABC News. "So the economy is much weaker than we thought it'd be, meaning, in fact, it could use more stimulus." Krugman: 'I'm Trying to Move the Debate' Criticizing the president's policies is nothing new for Krugman, 56, a frequent Roundtable guest and contributor on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos." The Princeton University economist and New York Times columnist has become one of the leading voices of the left critiquing the Obama administration's handling of the economy, the financial industry bailout, health care reform and climate change. "I'm trying to move the public debate in a better, more sensible direction," Krugman said. "There were not a whole lot of voices at least in the public eye saying what a lot of economists had concluded, which was that the Obama stimulus plan was, if anything, too small." Recovery won’t bring jobs- high unemployment, employer cautioin Miller, 6-10 (Don- Associate Editor of Money Moring, Money Morning, Is the U.S. Economy Headed for a “Jobless Recovery?” http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/06/10/jobless-recovery/) An Economic Recovery May Not Bring New Hiring . So what happens to the labor market when the layoffs end and the economy starts to grow again? All indications are that the road to recovering the millions of job lost during this recession will be a bumpy one. Employers remain skittish as they slowly recover from the biggest economic upheaval since World War II and are already saying they will be cautious about replenishing payrolls anytime soon. And just the sheer numbers of people on the street dictates that it will take some time to bring even a portion of them back into the work force. But to get to the heart the matter - the one factor that will keep the job market moribund for some time - analysts point to the bubble-bursting events that let the air out of the gigantic auto and housing sectors, the economic engines that drive manufacturing. “It will take a recovery in automobiles and housing for the manufacturing sector to once again prosper,” Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, told The Kiplinger Letter, noting those sectors have shed more than 1.5 million jobs in the past two years. And despite the government’s monumental stimulus program to create 3 million jobs in the next two years, those critical sectors are likely to face moribund prospects until at least 2010 - and perhaps even longer. “It’s going to take five or six years for homebuilders and automakers to fully recover from this recession, and it may take longer,” says Martin Hutchinson, a Money Morning contributing editor who has written extensively about the current downturn. “You’re not going to see aggressive hiring in those industries for a good while.” Hutchinson says the automobile business is in particular difficulty from outsourcing. “A great deal of the cutting-edge technology associated with the U.S, automobile business is currently being outsourced to other countries, which will further hinder product development and sales for that sector and constrain future hiring,” Hutchinson said. Federal Chairman Bernanke also says that the labor markets may continue to suffer for some time. In a speech to Congress on May 9, Bernanke pointed to lack of consumer spending and weakening demand for commercial and industrial loans as constraints on future hiring. “Even after a recovery gets under way … we expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly,” Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers. “In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, implying that the unemployment rate could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes.” Last printed 77 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 78 A/T: Other Things Are Magnets1. Social services entice low-income illegal immigrants to come to the United States, because they offer stability and help to new low-skill illegal immigrants This crowds out social services, turning case. That’s Malanga in 06 from the 1NC. 2. Social services are magnet for illegal immigrants Malanga, 2006 (Steven, How Unskilled Immigrants Hurt Our Economy,” City Journal, http://www.city- journal.org/html/16_3_immigrants_economy.html ) [Charlie Stephens] Immigration's bottom line has shifted so sharply that in a high-immigration state like California, native-born residents are paying up to ten times more in state and local taxes than immigrants generate in economic benefits. Moreover, the cost is only likely to grow as the foreign-born population - which has already mushroomed from about 9 percent of the U.S. population when the NAS studies were done in the late 1990s to about 12 percent today – keeps growing. And citizens in more and more places will feel the bite, as immigrants move beyond their traditional settling places. From 1990 to 2005, the number of states in which immigrants make up at least 5 percent of the population nearly doubled from 17 to 29, with states like Arkansas, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Georgia seeing the most growth. This sharp turnaround since the 1970s, when immigrants were less likely to be using the social programs of the Great Society than the native-born population, says Harvard economist Borjas, suggests that welfare and other social programs are a magnet drawing certain types of immigrants - nonworking women, children, and the elderly - and keeping them here when they run into difficulty. Almost certainly, immigrants' participation in our social welfare programs will increase over time, because so many are destined to struggle in our workforce. Despite our cherished view of immigrants as rapidly climbing the economic ladder, more and more of the new arrivals and their children face a lifetime of economic disadvantage, because they arrive here with low levels of education and with few work skills—shortcomings not easily overcome."3. Immigrants are not coming right now because of the recession and lack of jobs. Only social services give the economic incentive for illegal immigrants to come to the United States – That’s New York Times in 5/14 evidence from the 1NC.4. Even if they win immigrants come to the United States for other reasons, we will still win that the disad turns the case, because those immigrants will use social services to crowd them out – That’s Malagna in 06 from the 1NC. Last printed 78 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 79 2NC Disad Turns CaseDiad turns case multiple reasons1. Illegal immigration undermines social services by spreading out funding and push current people further down by crowding out jobs Federation for American Immigration Reform 05 ["Illegal Immigration is a Crime" http://www.fairus.org/site/News2? page=NewsArticle&id=16663&security=1601&news_iv_ctrl=1007] Apologists for illegal immigration try to paint it as a victimless crime, but the fact is that illegal immigration causes substantial harm to American citizens and legal immigrants, particularly those in the most vulnerable sectors of our population — the poor, minorities, and children. Illegal immigration causes an enormous drain on public funds. The seminal study of the costs of immigration by the National Academy of Sciences found that the taxes paid by immigrants do not begin to cover the cost of services received by them. The quality of education, health care and other services for Americans are undermined by the needs of endless numbers of poor, unskilled illegal entrants. Additionally, job competition by waves of illegal immigrants desperate for any job unfairly depresses the wages and working conditions offered to American workers, hitting hardest at minority workers and those without high school degrees.2. Immigration increases poverty – overloads services turning case Meese and Spalding, Chairman of the CLJS and Director of Simon Center for American Studies, 07 (Edwin Meese III and Mathew Spalding Ph.D. Chairman of the Center for Legal and Judicial Studies and Director of B. Kenneth Simon Center for American Studies. May 10, 2007, “Where We Stand: Essential Requirements for Immigration Reform,” http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/bg2034.cfm) Government provides a generous system of benefits and services to both the working and the non-working poor. While government continues its massive efforts to reduce overall poverty, immigration policy in the United States tends to produce results in the opposite direction, increasing rather than decreasing the poverty problem. Immigrants with low skill levels have a high probability of poverty and of receiving benefits and services that drive up governmental welfare, health, social service, and education costs.3. Disease- A. Immigrants transmit infectious diseases Barnett and Walker, Saunder’s Company, ‘08 (Elizabeth D. Barnett, Maxwell Finland Laboratory for Infectious Diseases. Patricia F. Walker, Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases and International Medicine. November 2008. “Role of Immigrants and Migrants in Emerging Infectious Diseases” Medical Clinics of North America - Volume 92, Issue 6) Immigrants may have a direct role in transmitting acute infectious diseases from one geographic location to another. This concern is especially great when large groups, such as refugees, are resettled to locations around the world. Since 2004, the resettlement of refugee populations has been disrupted in Kenya, Tanzania, Thailand, Ethiopia, and Ivory Coast by outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases including measles, mumps, rubella, polio, pertussis, hepatitis A, and typhoid fever. The planned movement of 8000 Liberian refugees scheduled to begin in June 2003 and conclude in April 2004 was interrupted several times by outbreaks of varicella, measles, o'nyong-nyong fever, and rubella.[15] During this period, 16 cases of varicella were imported into four states and an infant who had congenital rubella infection was born to a mother who had asymptomatic infection.[16] Experts in refugee resettlement have proposed immunization of large mobile populations before resettlement to reduce the spread of infectious diseases and to realize a cost-savings compared with administering all vaccines in the destination country.[17] The United States and Canada, through successful routine immunization programs, have reduced the rates of vaccine-preventable diseases to extremely low levels in the general population.[18] Disease due to Haemophilus influenzae type b has decreased by more than 99%, and most cases of measles and rubella in the United States are now imported or associated with imported cases. [19] , [20] , [21] Health care professionals have become less familiar with the typical clinical manifestations of some of these infections, leading to potential delays in diagnosis, as illustrated by several recent outbreaks of measles associated with children adopted internationally.[22] Other diseases, including varicella, pneumococcal disease, and pertussis, have been reduced significantly by routine childhood immunization, although clinicians continue with some regularity to see patients who have these diseases. [23] , [24] , [25] The major role of clinicians when evaluating newly arrived immigrants is to maintain a high index of suspicion for diseases that have become rare in the United States. Immigrants may not have received in their country of origin vaccines given routinely in North America, or may have had exposures that would be rare in North America.Last printed 79 IMMIGRATION GENERIC Dartmouth 2K9 Berthiaume 80 2NC Disad Turns CaseB. Disease causes more poverty and prevents effective solvency Sachs, Columbia University, 05 (Prof. JD Sachs, Ph,D. Economist and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. “Global health leadership and management” 2005. Pgs. 113-117)Last printed 80 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K981 2NC “mexico econ is worse means disad inev.”1. Immigration is significantly down because of the U.S. economic recession; there is no incentive for immigrants to come because of a lack of benefits- that’s NYT 5-14This means even if the Mexican economy is bad, the current status in the United States doesn’t provide a solution for them to get out of their problems.2. They ignore the risk and economic cost of coming over- this outweighs the rewards from the journey Mcclathy Newspapers, 7/23 (Mcclathy Newspapers, 7/23/09 The McClatchy Company is the third-largest newspaper company in the United States, a leading newspaper and internet publisher dedicated to the values of quality journalism, free expression and community service http://www.mcclatchy.com) Their job prospects battered by a deep recession, fewer immigrants are being caught trying to cross illegally into the United States than at any time since the 1970s, two reports based on new federal data say. But it remains unclear whether many illegal immigrants already here are heading back home. Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border are down 34 percent over the past two years, according to new U.S. Department of Homeland Security data — and on pace to be even lower in fiscal 2009. With record removals of unauthorized migrants in the U.S. and increased spending on border security, the economic and enforcement barriers to crossing into California and other Southwestern states have rarely been higher, federal officials and immigration experts say. "It’s far riskier to cross the border, it costs more, and the rewards are simply not there — the jobs that have driven people here for 40 years," said Al Camarillo, a Stanford historian who follows Latin American immigration. A new Pew Research Center report estimates that for the 12 months ending in February 2009, the net migration between Mexico and the U.S. — the number of people coming to the U.S. minus those returning to Mexico — was about 203,000, less than half of the 547,000 two years earlier. Last printed 81 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K982 AT: Magnet Theory Not True1. Their arguments aren’t warranted; we provide clear evidence that immigration and social service offers are linearly related – that’s Malanga. 2. Even if they win that there are alternate causes to immigration, they won’t win that they bring a huge turnover in immigration or that the immigrants brought over actually qualify for social services. Our impacts are garnered off of a large migration of immigrants due to social services.3. The aff is wrong. Pantoja ‘06 (Adrian Pantoja, Ph.D, expert in Chicano Studies and Political Studies, 4-1-06, “Against The Tide? Core American Values and Attitudes Toward US Immigration Policy in the Mid-1990s”, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/635844_731197592_741617437.pdf ) The absence of values in public opinion studies on immigration is surprising since much of the debate over immigration is framed around the economic costs and benefits immigrants bring to the nation (Borjas 1990; Briggs 1996; Brimelow 1995; Huddle 1993; Simon 1989). whether */in the jargon of US immigration law, become a ‘public charge’. The public charge doctrine has been a major component of immigration law since colonial times (Edwards 2001) and since most immigrants during the 1990s were coming from less developed nations there was a widespread belief that the majority lacked the skills necessary to survive without relying on public assistance. In fact, policies such as Proposition 187 were based on the belief that the welfare magnet , above all others, was the motivating factor attracting most immigrants. Former INS director Alan Nelson, who helped write Proposition 187, stated that their aim was to cut off social services in order to ‘demagnetize the draw for illegal aliens’(Chavez 2001: 247). Debates over immigration are often intrinsically tied to the role of the welfare state in providing a safety net for its citizenry or prospective citizenry (Feldman 1999). Traditionally, variations in support for social welfare programmes have centred on differences in nations’ political cultures (Almond and Verba 1963; Inglehart 1977; Weber 1958). McClosky and Zaller (1984: 17) define political culture as the ‘set of widely shared beliefs, values, and norms concerning the relationship of citizens to their government and to one another in matters affecting public affairs’. Thus, the core values that pervade within the public sphere underlie a nation’s political culture.Last printed 82 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K983 Generic Social Services Link Ext.1. Extend Malanga in ’06 – he warrants a huge turnaround in immigrant migration due to the social services being offered since the 70’s. This has led to a huge cost to social services as the immigrants that are enticed by the services are primarily unskilled or non-working people creating a lifetime of economic disadvantage. 2. An increase in social services would not only add more immigrants to the struggling services, but also keep them in the country due to their dependence on the service, creating a long-lasting drain on social services. 3. Increased social services results in illegal immigration Gray 06 - Chief Policy Analyst of the Civitas Institute [Becky, "Civitas Institute: Higher Minimum Wage Would Be Magnet For Illegal Immigrants" http://www.wsoctv.com/news/9829933/detail.html] Raising the minimum wage, in addition to the other benefits provided by the state, could encourage a greater number of illegal immigrants to come to North Carolina. Keeping the minimum wage at the current rate of $5.15 per hour won’t end the allure for illegal immigrants, but it won’t encourage more to come.In the Senate Budget Bill (SB 1741), and in a free-standing bill before the House (HB 2174), legislators want to raise the minimum wage to $6.15 per hour, one dollar more than the federal rate. This would make North Carolina’s minimum wage the highest of surrounding states, the highest between Florida and New Jersey, and the 14th highest in the country. Six states have no minimum wage state laws. They let the free market determine what workers are paid. Twenty-seven states (N.C. currently among them) adhere to the rate set by the federal government — $5.15 per hour. Nineteen states have minimum wages higher than the federal level (N.C. would join these states). Of the five states with the highest illegal populations (estimated, no one really knows), four have minimum wage rates higher than North Carolina. The fifth is Texas, which many would argue is a magnet for illegals, regardless of its minimum wage, because of its proximity to Mexico. Ten million illegal immigrants live in the United States, although some estimates put that number at 20 million. They come to escape extreme poverty and poor living conditions. They come to America to work, and many send money back home to their families. North Carolina’s illegal immigrant population is estimated at 400,000- 600,000. They come here because of the generous Medicaid benefits, a plethora of social services, schools for their children, easy drivers’ license requirements, lax voting laws, and most importantly, jobs. Most illegals fill the lowest paying jobs the market has to offer. Who benefits when the pay for these jobs is raised? The workers at the bottom of the pay scale, and a great many of them are illegal immigrants. Not only would the illegal immigrant workforce benefit immediately, but, since North Carolina would be offering the highest minimum wage in the region, the $6.15 starting pay rate would be a magnet for illegals to choose North Carolina as their new, albeit illegal, home. Last year the legislature proposed offering in-state tuition to illegal immigrants. Now these same legislators want to raise the minimum wage for jobs that would most benefit illegals. Why does the leadership in the General Assembly continue to want to provide more and more benefits to people who are here illegally — all paid at taxpayers’ expense? When low skilled illegal workers flood the workplace, the value of all low skilled workers is diminished — it hurts American workers. A minimum wage keeps rates artificially low, and since there are more workers than jobs available, unemployment goes up. When unemployment goes up, there is more demand for social services and welfare. Until meaningful immigration reforms are established, making North Carolina more attractive to illegal workers, by raising the minimum wage, is bad public and economic policy.Last printed 83 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K984 Link Ext. – Jobs 1. Job opportunities are the reason illegal immigrants come to America, increasing social services that will help them obtain skills or get jobs will inevitably increase illegal immigrants trying to get a job.2. Extend Malanga ’06 – social services are magnets toward illegal immigrants and act as a safety net if they are unable to find jobs.3. Welfare programs create markets for illegal immigrant labor ensuring immigration Paul, Texas member of congress, 05 (Raun Paul, Republican member of congress from texas, 8/9/05 http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul269.html) We must end welfare state subsidies for illegal immigrants. Some illegal immigrants – certainly not all – receive housing subsidies, food stamps, free medical care, and other forms of welfare. This alienates taxpayers and breeds suspicion of immigrants, even though the majority of them work very hard. Without a welfare state, we would know that everyone coming to America wanted to work hard and support himself. Our current welfare system also encourages illegal immigration by discouraging American citizens from taking low-wage jobs. This creates greater demand for illegal foreign labor. Welfare programs and minimum wage laws create an artificial market for labor to do the jobs Americans supposedly won’t do.Last printed 84 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K985 2NC Healthcare Links1. Illegal immigrants are drawn by social services such as Medicaid, because they often need health services. That’s Malangna in 06 from the 1NC2. Health coverage spurs illegal immigration Birkey, 9 (Andy, journalist with a degree in sociology and urban studies, Minnesota Independent, “Bachmann: Children’s health insurance a “magnet” for “illegal aliens””March 21, 2009, quoting Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann, http://www.tcdailyplanet.net/article/2009/03/18/bachmann-children%E2%80%99s-health- insurance-%E2%80%9Cmagnet%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%9Cillegal-aliens%E2%80%9D.html?print=1)Minnesota’s most outspoken member of Congress, Republican Michele Bachmann, took to the House floor Monday evening to lambaste Democrats on everything from gay marriage and abortion to taxes, immigration and Mountain Dew. At one point she said the State Childrens Health Insurance Program, recently reauthorized by Congress, would be a “magnet” for “illegal aliens.” Bachmann: “[B]ecause now President Obama even voted for the SCHIP bill, which we all know will now for the first time swing the door wide open for illegal aliens. I know one thing: The people in my district are not interested in paying for the health care for illegal aliens that are coming across our border to be yet one more magnet to bring people in that should come here legally.” On taxes and Mountain Dew: “Congress just had a sugar high. It’s as though every member of Congress just ingested a 24-pack of Mountain Dew and said, ‘Hallelujah. I’m on a sugar high. We’re going to spend money, and we’re going to rev this economy up.’ Well, I’m telling you, if you had a 24-pack of Mountain Dew, you would not only be on a sugar high, you would be zooming, but you would crash. And that’s about what we are going to be seeing. That crash is called taxes, Mr. Speaker. And the American people haven’t seen anything yet when they open up their tax bills.” On the French Revolution: “I know these Minnesota accents are a little tough to get through, but I also want to mention, just for point of reference, I am a federal tax attorney. That’s my background. That’s what I do. Taxes are us. “But the Obama administration has taken a completely different view. They have taken the view of the French Revolution, which is to tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend. And now they have even taken another cue from them — off with their heads.3. Universal health care is a huge magnet for illegal immigrants McKinley, a bureau chief of the New York Times, 07 (Jesse Mckinley, He is the San Francisco bureau chief of The New York Times. Previously, he was an arts reporter at the Times, 1/10/07 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/us/10health.html) Chief among the challenges, politicians and policy analysts said Tuesday, is the enormous number of political players — from big labor and big insurance to small-county government — that would be affected by any universal health care bill. “I cannot think of another topic that requires so many people to be heard to build consensus,” said one Democratic lawmaker, Don Perata, Senate president pro tem. “You’d have to rent out Madison Square Garden to get them all in there.” Mr. Schwarzenegger’s plan would extend care to the 6.5 million Californians who currently have no insurance, including an estimated one million illegal immigrants. That is just one of the elements to which Republicans are objecting. “Health coverage for illegal aliens is a nonstarter for us,” said Robert Huff, chairman of the Assembly’s Republican caucus. “It creates a magnet for them coming here rather than staying there.” Last printed 85 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K986 Aff Uniqueness Immigration rates are high despite the recession McCombs 4-19-09 - Arizona Daily Star reporter [Brady, "And still, Mexicans come" http://www.azstarnet.com/business/289318]Tiburcio Cuba Diaz has heard all about the dismal state of the U.S. economy. "Everyone says the crisis is very bad," Cuba, 34, a father of five from Puebla, Mexico, said in Spanish, "that they are firing people and there is very little work." But Cuba is still determined to cross the border illegally and make it to New York, where relatives say he'll be able to find work at a restaurant. His decision boils down to simple economics. "If the economy is bad in the United States, it's worse in Mexico," said Cuba, who was in Nogales last week after being caught by the Border Patrol on his first try. "The economy in the U.S. is always better." A host of indicators show that the flow of illegal immigration across the Southwest border has slowed to decade-low levels, but there are still thousands trying to cross each day, especially in Arizona. Not even the worst U.S. recession in a quarter century has brought the flow of illegal immigrants to a halt. The pull of jobs in the United States may have weakened, but the push from Latin America remains fairly strong. "In Mexico, they are always in crisis," said Faustino Gonzalez, who provides assistance at the Aid Center for Deported Migrants in Nogales, which provides food and medical services to illegal immigrants. "The Mexican never loses hope that crossing over to live in the United States will work out." Whether it's deported illegal immigrants trying to get back to their families in the U.S. or people leaving countries with economies even worse than ours, there are still enough people to keep coyotes, or guides, in business. U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions along the Southwest border and in the Tucson Sector have dropped by 37 percent in the last two years, but agents in the 262-mile Tucson Sector still made more than 1,000 apprehensions a day in March. Agents catch one in three border crossers, according to research from Wayne Cornelius, director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California-San Diego. If that's true, as many as 3,000 people cross through the sector daily. "Those folks don't have any alternative," Cornelius said. "They have to take the risks of migration even under these conditions because they have no economic options in their hometowns." Two migrant aid centers in Nogales, Sonora, have seen fewer than half as many deported migrants this year, but they are still providing food and medical care to as many as 400 people daily. "The American dream is very powerful," said Ramiro Quintero Chavez, of the Sonoran State Commission for the Care of Migrants. "The illusion is still there." With more than 13 million people in the United States jobless and the 8.5 percent unemployment rate higher than any other time in a quarter century, why would anybody spend thousands of dollars, leave their families behind and risk their lives when such a dismal economy awaits them? It is a complex answer best explained by four key factors: Global recession The recession is trickling down to other parts of the world, especially Mexico, which accounts for more than 92 percent of people apprehended by the Border Patrol on the Southwest border. "This recession is not just affecting the U.S.; it's a global recession," said Judith Gans, immigration-policy program manager at the University of Arizona's Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy. "It's affecting people in sending countries as well." The International Monetary Fund and World Bank both expect the Mexican economic growth to slow to less than 2 percent this year from nearly 5 percent in 2006. The value of the Mexican peso plummeted by 30 percent from August 2008 to March of this year before regaining some value in the past month and a half. The same 100 pesos that would have been worth $10 in August 2008 are now worth $7.60. Most of the rest of the world began feeling the trickle-down effects of the U.S. recession around September 2008, said Demetrios Papademetriou, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank that advocates for comprehensive immigration changes. The National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that the U.S. recession began in December 2007. "If the No. 1 consumer in the world no longer consumes, everyone that relies in one way or the other on the United States will be affected," Papademetriou said. "If American banks don't lend, that means any economic activity around the world that needs money in order for that to move forward is also going to stall." What does that mean for illegal immigration? As long as the gap between pay in Mexico and the United States remains large, people will continue to come. Even after taking a cut in hours recently at the thrift store she had worked at for six years in Chicago, illegal immigrant Carla Contreras is still trying to return to the U.S. after going home to Hidalgo, Mexico, for a family emergency. "Part-time work in Chicago is better than no work in Hidalgo," Contreras said in Spanish. Family reunification Many illegal border crossers are trying to reunite with family already in the United States. The number of illegal immigrants deported from the interior of the country by Immigration and Customs Enforcement has increased every year since 2004, including a 24 percent increase in the past two years. Nearly 73,000 people were deported from Arizona in fiscal 2008, compared with 44,376 the year before. A recent study from the Pew Hispanic Center found that 73 percent of the children of illegal immigrants were born in this country and are U.S. citizens. Last printed 86 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K987 Aff Uniqueness Immigration will increase (Carl Haub, senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau, 02 08, “U.S. Population Could Reach 438 Million by 2050, and Immigration Is Key,” http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/pewprojections.aspx <http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/pewprojections.aspx> )It is no surprise that immigrants and their descendants will play a large role in future U.S. population growth, as they do now and have for much of the country's history. But the projections detailed in the new report, authored by demographer Jeffrey S. Passel and writer D'Vera Cohn, differ from previous projections from the U.S. Census Bureau by assuming that the rate of immigration will hold steady —sending the net number of immigrants from 1.4 million per year in 2005 to 2.1 million per year by 2050 as the population total rises. This assumed increase in immigrants is, as the Pew report puts it, "in line with, but somewhat slower than, the growth trend of the last several decades."The Pew projections also offer a unique analysis of immigrants' role by taking into account the different birth rates of first-, second-, and third-generation immigrants. The authors estimate that immigrants arriving after 2005, and their children and grandchildren, will account for 82 percent of the population growth between 2005 and 2050.Pool of potential immigrants is expanding. (Carl Haub, senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau, 02 08, “U.S. Population Could Reach 438 Million by 2050, and Immigration Is Key,” http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/pewprojections.aspx <http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/pewprojections.aspx> )Global demographic trends also point to continued U.S. immigration. The populations of many sending countries and regions continue to grow, creating an expanding pool of potential immigrants. Africa will grow by about 1 billion between 2005 and 2050, India by at least a half billion. Latin America, the source of at least one-half of today's immigrants, will add another 40 million or so.Highest immigration rate in history of America now Scott, staff writer, 2009 (Jenny, 2-10-09, “Immigration High” http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/10/weekinreview/february-3-9-national-immigration- high.html?scp=4&sq=immigration%20high&st=cse) [Charlie Stephens] The number of foreign-born residents and children of immigrants in the U.S. has climbed to its highest level in history, the Census Bureau announced. More than a quarter are from Mexico; that is the largest share held by any country since 1890, when Germany accounted for 30 percent. On average, they are more urban, less educated and less affluent than other Americans, but as likely to be in the labor force. They make up 20 percent of the population -- less than the 1910 peak of 35 percent.Last printed 87 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K988 AFF – EconomyImmigrants key to the economy Farrell, Economics Editor for Business Weekly, 02 (Christopher Farrell, Economics Editor for Business Weekly, April 26, 2002, http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/apr2002/nf20020426_6091.htm Lexis) Hold on, please. Policymakers should move cautiously when it comes to immigration. Its net economic benefits have been substantial in the U.S., especially in the increasingly integrated global economy. America's historic ability to absorb newcomers in its vast melting pot is a vital source of competitive advantage. Immigrants and their contributions, more than stock market investment or information technology, may well be the defining feature of the New Economy. Certainly, the numbers are stunning. From 1981 to 2000, more than 16.4 million people legally poured into the U.S. (at least 7 million to 8 million more illegal aliens managed to get in), a figure exceeding the great immigration wave of 1900 to 1914 (see table). The foreign-born now make up 11% of the U.S. population, twice the share of the 1970s. In the nation's fastest-growing cities, the overall populations of Hispanics and Asians grew by 72% and 69%, respectively. Almost all of the gain was driven by immigration. HIGH-TECH LYNCHPINS. Since 1995, the foreign-born have contributed fully one- third of household growth in the U.S., and these immigrants are avid homebuyers. Among Asians age 25 to 44, the homeownership rate rose from 32.9% in 1995 to 37% in 2000, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The comparable figures for Hispanics are 28.9% and 31.2%. Many economists believe that immigrants play a dynamic role in the New Economy. More and more, America's high-tech industries, from semiconductors to biotechnology, depend on immigrant scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs to remain competitive. About half of foreign-born students who get their doctorate in science at an American university stay in the U.S. (see table). As of 1997, 21% of chemical engineers in the U.S. were foreign-born, as were 20% of computer scientists. Multinational corporations and export-oriented companies are highly dependent on immigrant managers and workers. Immigrants' links to their old countries are a boon to U.S. exports to such fast-growing regions as Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. ON THE MARGINS. The demand for less-skilled immigrants is also strong in an economy facing a long- term labor shortage. Those with less education are filling in the kinds of low-wage jobs that make a modern service economy run, such as in the hotel and restaurant industries. Over 15% of construction workers nationwide are immigrants.Immigrants add to US competitiveness Riley, EET Writer, 07 (Shiela Riley, Electronic Engineering Times Writer, January 8, 2007, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T7001803750&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T7001803757& cisb=22_T7001803756&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=155278&docNo=9 Lexis) A tech entrepreneur and a native of India, Wadhwa also is executive-in-residence at Duke's Pratt School of Engineering. The key to maintaining U.S. global economic competitiveness is to use its strengths, and skilled immigrants are one of those strengths, Wadhwa says. "To maintain our competitiveness, we need to attract the best and brightest from all over the world," Wadhwa said. "We want these people . . . on our side rather than competing with us." Advocates of increasing the quota for skilled temporary foreign workers say the research supports their position, though. Skilled immigrants add value to the economy, said Washington, D.C., attorney Marcy Stras, head of the business immigration practice at the law firm Baker Hostetler. "I'm very happy that there's something the government can take note of that positively proves that," Stras said. Last printed 88 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K989 AFF – EconomyImmigrant entrepreneurs create “enclave economies” aiding the business economy Iwata, USA Today, 07 (Edward Iwata, USA Today staff writer, February 7, 2007, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T7001803750&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T7001803757& cisb=22_T7001803756&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8213&docNo=13 Lexis) The growing number of immigrant entrepreneurs in major U.S. cities is giving a huge lift to urban economies and even outpacing self- employed native-born Americans, according to a report Tuesday. "It's not just a handful of mom-and-pop enterprises," says Jonathan Bowles, director of the Center for an Urban Future, a non-profit think tank in New York that conducted the study. "Immigrants have become a real engine for economic and job growth in many sectors." Immigrants, of course, have started small shops, restaurants and other neighborhood businesses throughout U.S. history. But with the fast-rising immigrant population in recent years, highly skilled immigrant entrepreneurs in many industries are creating broader "enclave economies" of supermarkets, food-manufacturing companies, health clinics, banks, law firms, high-tech start-ups and other companies. The report, "A World of Opportunity," says the immigrant economy is thriving in: *Los Angeles. Immigrants started 22 of the city's 100 fastest-growing businesses, including Red Peacock International, a consumer electronics wholesaler; PriceGrabber.com, an online comparison-shopping store; and Norstar Office Products, a workplace furniture company. Los Angeles County also boasts more businesses owned by Latinos and Asians than any U.S. county. *New York. While the number of businesses citywide rose only 9.6% from 1994 to 2004, the number of firms exploded in immigrant neighborhoods such as Flushing (55%), Sunset Park (47%), Sheepshead Bay-Brighton Beach (34%) and Washington Heights (18%). Job growth in immigrant neighborhoods also outpaced New York's citywide job gain of 7%. The job rate grew 28% in Jackson Heights, 23% in Sunset Park and 13% in Sheepshead Bay-Brighton Beach. *Houston. Perhaps best known for its energy and oil industry, Houston has a teeming economy of tens of thousands of immigrant entrepreneurs, from Mexico, Vietnam, China, Nigeria and other countries. Little known outside Texas, Houston boasts a suburban Asian business district of strip malls, shopping centers and offices along Bellaire Boulevard. A real estate developer and Vietnamese immigrant from the area, Hubert Vo, is a Texas state lawmaker. Why the surge in immigrant entrepreneurs? Many come from strong merchant cultures -- such as Syria, Iran, Greece, South Korea, Israel and Brazil -- that have existed for centuries, according to Bowles. Millions are well-educated, middle- class professionals. And many possess the same drive to succeed as U.S. business leaders. "A lot of immigrants are the cream of the crop," Bowles says. "They have highly developed skills, a work ethic, good education, business backgroundsIllegal immigrants have a positive impact on the economy USA TODAY 4/23/08; “Illegal immigrants add to states’ economies” Lexis, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/returnTo.do? returnToKey=20_T7011622537Oklahoma Rep. Randy Terrill's claim that it's "indisputable" that illegal immigration imposes a "net financial drain" on states ignores some recent and important research regarding the financial impact of illegal immigrants ("Oklahoma is doing its job," Opposing view, Illegal immigrants debate, April 16). A 2006 study conducted by Texas' then comptroller, Carole Keeton Strayhorn, found that illegal immigrants represented a $420 million net gain to the state in 2005. Overall, Hispanic immigrants add to the economy. A study on North Carolina's Hispanic population, published by the Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, found that in 2006, the Hispanic population imposed a cost of $61 million on the state government but contributed more than $9 billion to the state economy. Of course, this research does not prove that illegal immigrants impose no costs on state governments or on populations, but it does show that assertions such as Terrill's are baseless scare tactics that only fuel anti-immigration sentiment.Last printed 89 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K990 AFF – EconomyIllegal immigration key to economic growth Bloomberg 09 (Nicholas Johnston, Bloomberg, 4-30-09, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=anIvyAQU6XRk&refer=us) Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that illegal immigration makes a “significant” contribution to U.S. economic growth by providing a flexible workforce. Greenspan, appearing before a Senate subcommittee today, said illegal immigrants provide a “safety valve” as demand for workers rises and falls. “There is little doubt that unauthorized, that is, illegal, immigration has made a significant contribution to the growth of our economy,” Greenspan said. An overhaul of U.S. immigration laws is “badly needed” to create legal avenues for skilled and unskilled workers to enter the country legally, he said. “Our immigration laws must be reformed and brought up to date,” Greenspan told the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Refugees and Border Security. Congress is beginning hearings on an overhaul of U.S. immigration policies, a legislative priority of President Barack Obama. The Senate blocked legislation in 2007 that would have given an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants a way to earn legal status and would have created a new guest-worker program, a measure supported by then-President George W. Bush. Working Groups Obama again endorsed an overhaul of U.S. immigration laws during a prime-time news conference last night and said he will soon convene working groups with lawmakers “to start looking at a framework of how this legislation might be shaped.” “No one is happy with our current system,” New York Democrat Chuck Schumer, the subcommittee’s chairman, said as the hearing began. “There is a recognition in America that the status quo is not working.” A key sticking point during the last immigration debate was how to treat the millions of immigrants who are in the country illegally. Opponents said giving them a path to legal status rewards people who broke the law. They also argued that low-skilled immigrant workers suppress wages for U.S. workers and burden local governments with demands for services. Greenspan dismissed those concerns. “Economists generally view the overall economic benefits of this workforce as significantly outweighing the costs,” he said. Skilled Workers Greenspan also endorsed an expansion of the H-1B visa program for skilled workers that is backed by technology companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. The 2007 legislation would have increased the size of the program to 115,000 annual visas, up from 65,000. Greenspan said U.S. schools don’t produce enough skilled workers and the gap must be filled with immigrants who have advanced degrees. “If we are to continue to engage the world and enhance our standards of living, we will have to either markedly improve our elementary and secondary education or lower our barriers to skilled immigrants,” Greenspan said. Schumer and Senator Jon Kyl, an Arizona Republican, cautioned that it will remain difficult to reach agreement on the immigration issue. Texas Republican John Cornyn said the Senate devoted 36 days of floor consideration during the last debate to no avail. “This will be very, very hard to do,” Schumer said. “Make no mistake, this will not be an easy task.”Last printed 90 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K991 Immigration Good- Economy/ AT: DA Turns the Case (1/2) Illegal Immigrants help the economy and are vital to future social services- (academic studies, economic consensus, tax revenue, lower costs) Gittelson, 8 - (Robert, immigration attorney, text of a speech given by the author to the Notre Dame Law School “Dispelling The Divisive Myths Of Comprehensive Immigration Reform” September 30, 2008, http://www.ilw.com/articles/2009,0107- gittelson.shtm)This leads me to the second myth that I'd like to tackle, that being that our illegal immigrants are a net burden to our tax base. This is perhaps the most disingenuous myth in the Restrictionist's arsenal. I've heard tons of erroneous propaganda to this effect. Often they site the "costs of illegal immigration" as totaling in the billions of dollars. Well, they are half right. Illegal immigrants do cost taxpayers billions of dollars in social services. However, it is disingenuous to stop the argument there. It's like saying that it costs Toyota $15,000 to build a car. Yes, there is a cost associated with building a car, just as there is a cost associated with illegal immigration. On the other hand, if Toyota sells that car for $25,000, then there is actually a gross profit of $10,000, which is an entirely different and much more accurate way to look at the picture. The same is true with illegal immigrants in this country. The vast majority pay income taxes. Many pay property taxes, some pay corporate taxes, and all of them pay sales taxes. The vast majority of the academic and government studies have concluded that illegal immigrants actually pay more taxes into the system then they receive in benefits, although to be fair, there have been a few studies commissioned by anti-immigration organizations such as the Heritage Foundation and the Center for Immigration Studies, which have not surprisingly reached an opposite conclusion. According to Francine Lipman, a Tax Law Professor at Chapman Law School, "Every empirical study of illegals' economic impact demonstrates the opposite . . .: undocumenteds actually contribute more to public coffers in taxes than they cost in social services. Moreover, undocumented immigrants contribute to the U.S. economy through their investments and consumption of goods and services; filling of millions of essential worker positions resulting in subsidiary job creation, increased productivity and lower costs of goods and services; and unrequited contributions to Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance programs. Eighty-five percent of eminent economists surveyed have concluded that undocumented immigrants have had a positive (seventy-four percent) or neutral (eleven percent) impact on the U.S. economy."6 That being said, I say that these academic arguments are, well, academic. The reality is that it really doesn't matter if the undocumented population pays a little more or a little less then what they receive back in social services, because these revenue figures are dwarfed by the only figure that really counts. The important figure is the amount of tax revenue that is generated directly and indirectly to our tax base because of, and through the presence of, these 12,000,000 to 20,000,000 undocumented people. While of course these people pay taxes, (and they would pay even more taxes after CIR), their tax contributions are minute compared to the taxes paid by: The corporations that the undocumented workers generate revenue for. The additional legal co-workers that owe their income, in whole or in part, to the presence of the undocumented workers that work with them, (often at much higher tax rate salaries or commissions then the undocumented lower wage employees). The owners or shareholders of the companies that they work for, (again, at much higher tax rates because of much larger incomes). The property taxes paid by the business's that the undocumented work for. The taxes paid by the companies, owners, and the employees of business's that produce revenue by working with the companies that employ the undocumented workers, (grocery chains, for example, that sell produce picked by undocumented workers). However, even these figures, while much larger then the direct taxes paid by the undocumented workers, really don't tell the whole story at all. To really appreciate the fiscal impact of the 12,000,000 to 20,000,000 undocumented people on our economy, and therefore on our tax base, you have to look at the full macroeconomic impact of these people on the overall economy. When one considers the multiplicative effect of each dollar spent or generated by the undocumented people, as well as the legal citizens that they work with directly and indirectly, on the overall economy, the amount of tax revenue attributable to the labor of the undocumented workers skyrockets. This is because the multiplicative effect takes into consideration the fact that when one person spends a dollar, that same dollar gets recycled several times throughout the economy, generating tax revenue at each stop along the way. When you look at this equation through a macro-economic lens, (which is the only accurate way to look at it), then the tax revenue generated through and because of the undocumented population is several times the amount that they receive back in social services . It's not even remotely close . Many economists believe that immigrants are not the problem, but rather are the solution to many economic problems. Julian Simon, renowned economist, has noted that "every study that provides dollar estimates show that when the sum of the tax contributions to city, state and federal government are allowed for, those tax payments vastly exceed the cost of the services used, by a factor of perhaps five, ten or more."7 (continues…no text removed)Last printed 91 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K992 Immigration Good- Economy/ AT: DA Turns the Case (2/2)(continues… no text removed) In fact, contrary to the myth that illegal immigrants cost us more in social services than they contribute to our tax base, I would also argue that the legalization of our undocumented immigrant population, not to mention our future need for additional immigrants , will greatly and positively impact the viability of our country's future social service commitments to our aging citizenry, particularly Social Security and Medicare. In short, we will need the vital financial contributions that these immigrants will be paying into these programs for years to come. According to Dowell Myers, a planning professor in the USC school of Policy, Planning, and Development, in his book Immigrants and Boomers, "Immigrants and boomers need each other. These are two populations whose destinies are going to converge in less than 20 years. We already know a lot about the boomers' coming retirement impacts, but we still underestimate the immigrants and how they can help. Between 1980 and 2015, the cost of programs for the elderly will increase from 31 percent of the federal budget to 48 percent. Meanwhile, the ratio of seniors to working-age residents, including immigrants, will grow from 250 seniors per 1,000 working-age residents in 2010 to 411 per 1,000 in 2030."8 According to Francine Lipman, "Over the next 75 years, new immigrants will provide a net benefit of approximately $611 billion in present value to the Social Security system."9 Also, according to the Immigration Policy Center, "Immigrants Pay More in Taxes Than They Use in Services Over Their Lifetimes: Depending on skills and level of education, each immigrant pays, on average, between $20,000 and $80,000 more in taxes than he or she consumes in public benefits. Immigrants' Relative Youth Contributes To Social Security's Health: Current levels of immigration will provide a net benefit to the Social Security system of nearly $450 billion in taxes paid over benefits received during the 2006-2030 period, and almost $4.4 trillion during the 2006-2080 period. This is because 75 percent of immigrants arrive in the United States when they are in their prime working years (age 18 to 65). But the share of native-born citizens in their prime working years now stands at only 60 percent, and will decline rapidly over the coming decades as the Baby Boomers retire."14 So, in point of fact, we either have to start having many more babies as soon as possible, or we need to face up to the reality that we need Comprehensive Immigration Reform going forward, if for no other reason that we need the tax contributions of all of these immigrants to help pay for our retirement.Last printed 92 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K993 Immigration Good- EconomyImmigration key to the economy- business profits and social security White, 9 - journalist specializing in liberal politics [Deborah, Washington Post 5-19-09"Illegal Immigration Explained - Profits & Poverty, Social Security & Starvation" http://usliberals.about.com/od/immigration/a/IllegalImmi.htm] And undocumented workers, grateful for any job, will work for lower wages and minimal or no benefits, therefore enabling employers to make higher business profits. Cheaper labor costs and lesser working conditions equal greater profits for business owners. In a January 2005 World Net Daily article, a report by investment firm Bear Stearns was cited that clearly illustrates that millions of US jobs have shifted from the legal workforce "as employers have systematically replaced American workers with lower wage illegal aliens." For illegal immigrants, it's about finding any work to feed, clothe and shelter their families. For employers, it's about profits. But why would the US government look the other way, allowing employers to replace American workers with undocumented workers from other countries? "...experts blame the twin pressures of ethnic advocacy and business interests" reports the Christian Science Monitor. Translation...."ethnic advocacy" means buying favor...and votes....within the illegal immigrant community. If an immigrant doesn't vote, he/she has relatives who do. In the 21st century, Hispanics surpassed African-Americans as the largest ethnic group in the United States. Many believe that the Bush Administration's lack of immigration enforcement in 2004 was directly connected to the Republican Party's goal to court the Hispanic vote, and to entice Hispanics to join Republican ranks. Translation..."business interests" means profits. When labor costs are lower, business profits are higher. When thousands of businesses have higher profits, then the US business community is stronger (and happier). More votes and more voter perception of success. A major economic drawback, though, to allowing thousands...probably millions...of US businesses to pay under-market wages and benefits to undocumented workers is that it depresses wages for all workers in the US. All Americans workers, then have decreased incomes, lower benefits and higher rates of poverty and hunger. An obvious moral drawback to allowing US businesses to pay under-market, lower than even minimum wage rates, is that it's wrong. Minimum wage and standard minimal working conditions are established to humanely provide for the safety and welfare of all workers...not just American-born workers. It's a matter of decency and human rights, rooted in the United States' Christian-Judeo heritage. It's wrong and exploitative, and it's immoral. It's an updated form of economic slavery. Writes Dr. Groody, "Immigrants die cutting North Carolina tobacco and Nebraska beef, chopping down trees in Colorado, welding a balcony in Florida , trimming grass at a Las Vegas golf course, and falling from scaffolding in Georgia.... With an economic gun at their backs, they leave their homes because hunger and poverty pushes them across the border....Every day, immigrants dehydrate in deserts, drown in canals, freeze in mountains and suffocate in tractor trailers. As a result, the death toll has increased 1,000 percent in some places." And there's one more reason why would the US government would look the other way, thus allowing US employers to replace American workers with undocumented workers from other countries. A huge, seemingly insurmountable reason. A $7 billion a year problem: Social Security. Part 4 - Undocumented Workers Give $7 Billion Annually to Social Security According to a New York Times article on April 5, 2005, "...the estimated seven million or so illegal immigrant workers in the United States are now providing the system with a subsidy of as much as $7 billion a year....Moreover, the money paid by illegal immigrants and their employers is factored into all the Social Security Administration's projections." However,since illegal immigrant workers are here illegally, and ostensibly presented fake ID to the US employer, they will never collect Social Security benefits. "For illegal immigrants, Social Security numbers are simply a tool needed to work on this side of the border. Retirement does not enter the picture," reports the New York Times. The Social Security Administration remains solvent in large part due to deductions taken from the paychecks of illegal immigrant workers, yet Social Security will never pay benefits to those workers. The workers pay in, but they never receive back. Wouldn't the federal government detect fake Social Security numbers? According to that April 6, 2005 New York Times article, "Starting in the late 1980s, the social Security Administration received a flood of W-2 earnings reports with incorrect---sometimes simply fictitious---Social Security numbers. It stashed them in what it calls the 'earnings suspense file' in the hope that someday it would figure out whom they belonged to. The file has been mushrooming ever since: $189 billion worth of wages ended up recorded in the suspense file over the 1990s, two and a half times the amount of the 1980s. In the current decade, the file is growing, on average, by more than $50 billion a year, generating $6 billion to $7 billion in Social Security tax revenue and about $1.5 billion in Medicare taxes. ...the mismatched W-2's fit like a glove on illegal immigrants' known geographic distribution and the patchwork of jobs they typically hold. An audit found that more than half of the 100 employers filing the most earnings reports with false social Security numbers from 1997 through 2001 came from just three states: California, Texas and Illinois." As shown by this information, the federal bureaucracy clearly knows which companies employ probable illegal immigrant workers, and it even knows which workers are likely illegals. And the government does nothing about it. Not one penalty was levied by the federal government against an employer in 2004 for hiring undocumented workers. SUMMARY The equation to explain the whys of illegal immigration into the US is simple: Add: Widespread abject poverty and starvation in Mexico after US corporations relocated their cheap-labor plants from the US-Mexico border to Asia, and after Mexican banks and telecommunications were privatized, creating dozens of instant billionaires and plunging millions into poverty. Add: An extremely porous, under-enforced US-Mexico border. Add: US employers anxious for more profits, and willing to exploit the poverty and fears of illegal immigrants to do so. Add: The federal government anxious to curry favor with , and garner votes from, business owners and the Hispanic community...thus, willing to under-enforce borders and immigrations laws, and ignore illegal hiring by employers. Add: The Social Security Administration dependent on taking in $7 billion annually of contributions from illegal immigrant workers who will never receive benefits from the system. THE RESULT: Millions of illegal immigrants working for low wages and in poor working conditions, grateful for "scraps to fall from the US table of prosperity," per Dr. Groody. Wealthier US businesses, and a much-richer Social Security Administration, neither which reimburse local and state authorities and taxpayers for the costs (education, health care, law enforcement and more) associated with illegal immigrants. And a very angry US citizenry, who vilify immigrants for being here, rather than blaming the business owners who hire and exploit them, the US government which lets them enter the US and profits greatly from them, and the Mexican government which is happy to see them immigrate out of their country. "Our nation virtually posts two sign on its southern border: 'Help Wanted: Inquire Within' and 'Do Not Trespass," says Pastor Robin Hoover of Humane Borders. " Without the help of immigrant labor, the US economy would virtually collapse . We want and need cheap immigrant labor, but we do not want the immigrants." Last printed 93 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K994 Immigration Good – Economy Illegal immigrants are key to the economy Mark Thoma 10/1/06; “Immigration is Good” Economist’s View, http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/10/immigration_is_.htmlThis argues that, when the costs and benefits are compared, illegal immigration is a net benefit: Illegal -- but Essential, by David Streitfeld, LA Times: Shortly after dawn, the day laborers began gathering beneath a San Diego Freeway overpass in West Los Angeles. A house painter pulled up in a pickup, looking for an assistant. He offered $12 an hour. A worker jumped in. Next to arrive was a white-haired woman driving a Honda. Her garden needed a makeover. She'd pay $11 an hour. She departed with a second worker. ... Down here, at the West L.A. Community Job Center, arrangements were being made to remodel ... living rooms, landscape ... yards, rebuild ... decks. The work is undertaken by men from Mexico and Central America. Most are in this country illegally. The jobs, which last only a day or two and pay cash, are all but invisible to the state and federal governments. No one has to fill out paperwork, follow safety regulations or pay taxes. Yet what happens here is far from marginal. The jobs that flow out of this day-laborer hiring spot — and from thousands of others around the state, some as informal as a street corner — are a pillar of California's economic strength. To see why, check out Adrian Lopez, 20, who is kicking around a soccer ball as he waits. Lopez, who came here from the Mexican state of Oaxaca, is carrying in his Everest backpack a Sony Walkman from the Best Buy across the street. It's got a CD ... bought at a Ritmo Latino store. He has a bottle of Kirkland Premium Drinking Water, purchased at Costco, and a spare Old Navy shirt. He likes the grilled steak at Baja Bud's. ... "Immigrants buy everything here," Lopez said in Spanish. The presence in the United States of Lopez and 12 million other illegal immigrants is one of the most contentious issues of the era. ... Economists are less divided. In the main, they say the American engines of industry and commerce have always been fueled by a steady supply of new arrivals. Immigrants, they contend, contribute to consumer spending and, instead of replacing native workers, create jobs. ... Measuring the contributions of illegal workers is a difficult task, however. Many numbers are vague or open to dispute. A few experts contend that the gains are not clear-cut and that any benefits are far from being universally shared. ... [E]conomists concede that [some] ... native-born Americans may be hurt by competition from illegal immigrants who are willing to work cheaply. But any harm, they say, is outweighed by the benefits to the overall economy. ... Restaurant prices are pushed down by illegal labor in the kitchen, fruit and vegetable prices by illegal field hands, new-home prices by illegal drywallers. Immigrants aren't just a weapon against inflation. The tens of thousands of illegal nannies in the Los Angeles area, for example, lower the cost of child care, freeing mothers to return to work. This in turn increases families' incomes, which encourages spending and fuels the economy. Many immigrants send a portion of their earnings home to their families, but their influence here remains potent. The Economic Roundtable, a Los Angeles think tank, estimates that the 400,000 illegal workers in L.A. County spend $5.7 billion annually on food, rent, transportation and other necessities. The sales taxes they pay on all those consumer purchases boost the state treasury. The growing number of immigrants who use false papers to get payroll jobs are contributing to Social Security without the right to receive payments from the fund. That props up the beleaguered system by at least $5 billion a year, analysts say. Other benefits may be less obvious, such as the gains in property values enjoyed by homeowners. ... Their apartments and houses may be shabby, but their sheer numbers exert a profound effect. In a state that never has enough housing, the hundreds of thousands of units rented to immigrant families put upward pressure on all prices. Then there are the bad things that aren't happening despite the immigrants' presence. For instance, they don't seem to be creating an unemployment problem. Joblessness in California, with 24% of the country's illegal immigrants, has tracked the low national rate. All this evidence, many economists say, makes a powerful argument that immigrants' role can be characterized as somewhere between important and irreplaceable.Last printed 94 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K995Immigration Good – Economy Illegal immigration is good for the economy – provides a flexible workforce Nicholas Johnston 4/30/09; “Greenspan Says Illegal Immigration Aids U.S. Economy” Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=anIvyAQU6XRk&refer=usApril 30 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that illegal immigration makes a “significant” contribution to U.S. economic growth by providing a flexible workforce. Greenspan, appearing before a Senate subcommittee today, said illegal immigrants provide a “safety valve” as demand for workers rises and falls. “There is little doubt that unauthorized, that is, illegal, immigration has made a significant contribution to the growth of our economy,” Greenspan said. An overhaul of U.S. immigration laws is “badly needed” to create legal avenues for skilled and unskilled workers to enter the country legally, he said. “Our immigration laws must be reformed and brought up to date,” Greenspan told the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Refugees and Border Security. Congress is beginning hearings on an overhaul of U.S. immigration policies, a legislative priority of President Barack Obama. The Senate blocked legislation in 2007 that would have given an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants a way to earn legal status and would have created a new guest-worker program, a measure supported by then-President George W. Bush. Working Groups Obama again endorsed an overhaul of U.S. immigration laws during a prime-time news conference last night and said he will soon convene working groups with lawmakers “to start looking at a framework of how this legislation might be shaped.” “No one is happy with our current system,” New York Democrat Chuck Schumer, the subcommittee’s chairman, said as the hearing began. “There is a recognition in America that the status quo is not working.” A key sticking point during the last immigration debate was how to treat the millions of immigrants who are in the country illegally. Opponents said giving them a path to legal status rewards people who broke the law. They also argued that low-skilled immigrant workers suppress wages for U.S. workers and burden local governments with demands for services. Greenspan dismissed those concerns. “ Economists generally view the overall economic benefits of this workforce as significantly outweighing the costs,” he said. Skilled Workers Greenspan also endorsed an expansion of the H-1B visa program for skilled workers that is backed by technology companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. The 2007 legislation would have increased the size of the program to 115,000 annual visas, up from 65,000. Greenspan said U.S. schools don’t produce enough skilled workers and the gap must be filled with immigrants who have advanced degrees. “ If we are to continue to engage the world and enhance our standards of living, we will have to either markedly improve our elementary and secondary education or lower our barriers to skilled immigrants,” Greenspan said. Schumer and Senator Jon Kyl, an Arizona Republican, cautioned that it will remain difficult to reach agreement on the immigration issue. Texas Republican John Cornyn said the Senate devoted 36 days of floor consideration during the last debate to no avail. “This will be very, very hard to do,” Schumer said. “Make no mistake, this will not be an easy task.” Last printed 95 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K996Aff: Immigration K2 Economy Immigrants are a huge contributor to the economy Melissa Marietta 06. [“Undocumented immigrants should receive social services”] http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IMR/is_1-2_81/ai_n16599310/pg_3/?tag=content;col1 Americans need to recognize the contributions undocumented immigrants make to the U.S. economy. Their labor allows American citizens to live in affordable houses and eat food at lower prices. Their labor also helps American businesses compete in a global economy. Additionally, immigrants pay a variety of taxes to the government (i.e., sales tax, income tax, property tax, Social Security, and user fees). Some undocumented immigrants have even served in the armed forces. U.S. Marine Lance Corporal Jose Gutierrez, an undocumented immigrant, gave his life for this country during the Iraq war. (12) If the military allows undocumented immigrants to enlist and put their life on the line for the U.S., then they deserve the same veterans' benefits given to any soldier. Given these circumstances, undocumented immigrants should receive the benefits of government services when needed. Undocumented immigrants contribute to the American economy through their purchasing power and by helping American companies compete in foreign markets. Employers pay less for unskilled labor which allows them to offer savings to the American consumer. Some anti-immigrant advocates complain that undocumented immigrants are driving down wages for unskilled American citizens, but Douglas Holtz-Eakin, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), disagrees. A CBO report on the economic impact of immigration shows that, in the short term, immigration creates a small negative effect, but over the long term, the American economy is able to adjust. He attributes this to "the flexibility of the American labor market in which there are a variety of [economic] adjustments that can take place in response to an influx of immigration. Additional capital and incentives for the native born to acquire more education are two of those key adjustments." (13)Immigration is good for the economy – they contribute at least $10 billion each year Melissa Marietta 06. [“Undocumented immigrants should receive social services”] http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IMR/is_1-2_81/ai_n16599310/pg_4/?tag=content;col1The National Research Council has found that "immigration benefits the U.S. economy overall, and has little negative effect on the income and job opportunities of most native-born Americans." (17) It asserts that "immigrants add as much as $ 10 billion to the economy each year and they will pay more in taxes than they use in government services over their lifetimes." (18) Jeffery Passel, the author of several studies on immigration, adds "that all immigrants arriving after 1970 pay a total of $70 billion in taxes to all levels of government, thereby generating $25-$30 billion more than they use in public services." (19)Immigration is good for the economy – higher paying jobs can be created and cheaper labor Jonae Fredericks 7 – 2 – 09. [“How Does Illegal Immigration Hurt The Economy?”] eHow Editor. http://www.ehow.com/how-does_4600456_illegal-immigration-hurt-economy.html The presence of an illegal immigrant workforce benefits consumers and companies alike. The ability of a company to pay less for more work and still produce the same quantity of manufactured goods is a positive result of illegal immigrants working for United States companies. Not only is there an upswing in productivity, but more jobs can actually be created for higher paid workers due to flourishing business and increased consumer purchases.Last printed 96 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K997 AFF – No Link – Social ServicesSocial services don’t cause illegal immigration Fee, 98 (Allsion, “NOTE: FORBIDDING STATES FROM PROVIDING ESSENTIAL SOCIAL SERVICES TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS: THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF RECENT FEDERAL ACTION,” 7 B.U. Pub. Int. L.J. 93) [Charlie Stephens]Two myths of illegal immigration are that the "welfare magnet" draws undocumented immigrants to the United States and that theyuse welfare in disproportionate numbers. n99 There is very little evidence that public benefits attract illegal immigrants to the United States. n100 Jobs appear to be the primary motivation for entry into the United States. n101 In fact, all immigrants, legal and illegal, are less likely than native-born Americans to utilize social services. n102 Federal law bars illegal immigrants from using most public service programs n103 and their fraudulent use of these programs is quite low. n104 The few who are receiving benefits are doing so illegally. They can be punished under existing law for fraudulent use of a benefit program. Illegal immigrants are eligible for emergency medical care under Medicaid n105 and special supplemental vouchers under the Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children ("WIC"). n106 However, these programs do not cost the state anything and are one of the few examples where federal government pays for services that illegal immigrants have access to. n107 While the intent of the Reform Laws is surely to appease states who are fed up with paying for the failure of federal policy, the laws are not well reasoned. Barring illegal immigrants from receiving social services would not achieve a significant decline in illegal immigration because benefits are not the primary lure for these aliens. n108 In light of the inability of undocumented immigrants to receive most major federal assistance programs, an attack based on their disproportionate use of such services is misplaced. n109 States should allow illegal immigrants, without fear of deportation, to access services that are essential to public safety. Aside from the moral issues raised, one must consider the possibility that such a law will cost society far more in the long run by affecting the following three principal areas: medical care, police protection and education.Last printed 97 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K998 AFF – No Link – Social ServicesImmigrants are drawn to jobs which are inevitable – social services aren’t a magnet San Diego Union Tribune 2008 [Easy to Blame, Copely News Service, nexis] For those convinced that illegal immigration is responsible for so many of society's ills - from crime to pollution to crowded schools - it is easy to conclude that California would not be facing an $8 billion budget gap if the state wasn't home to so many illegal immigrants. It is undocumented immigrants, the argument goes, that put the Golden State in the red by taxing our schools, prisons and social services. What nonsense. In fact, those who think that way and blame illegal immigrants for California's economic crisis are making - to quote Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger - a "big mistake." Last week, Schwarzenegger was in San Luis Obispo to talk about the budget mess and some of his solutions to it when Diane Blakeslee, who happens to be the mother of GOP Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee, R-San Luis Obispo, asked the governor a simple question that we're sure many Californians have: How should the state handle the financial burden of illegal immigration? Schwarzenegger could have played along, as many Republican politicians do when asked such questions. Remember when former GOP presidential candidate Fred Thompson was asked how illegal immigrants brought about the mortgage crisis, and he went on about how it was absolutely true because many of the people who signed up for bad loans were illegal immigrants who couldn't understand English? Thankfully, the actor-turned-politician washed out and headed back to Hollywood where he can do less damage. Not Schwarzenegger. He put it right on the table. "There is always a time like this where you start pointing the finger at various different elements of what creates the budget mess, and some may point the finger at illegal immigrants," the governor said. "I can guarantee you, I have been now four years in office in Sacramento, I don't think that illegal immigration has created the mess that we are in." Of course, it hasn't. Concerned about the cost of illegal immigrants using schools, prisons and social services? Why not think about what it costs to run schools, prisons and social service agencies - thanks to the demands of greedy public servant unions? However, that approach could make political enemies. And so instead, Assembly Republicans took the easy road and proposed nearly two dozen bills they claim would reduce the "negative impact" that illegal immigrants have on the state budget. The proposals range from requiring individuals to show proof of citizenship when receiving state benefits to repealing a law that allows undocumented students who have lived in California most of their lives to pay in-state college tuition. It is these services that act as magnets that lure illegal immigrants to California, or so we are told. That's more nonsense. The real magnets are jobs, which illegal immigrants apparently have no trouble finding in this state at the hands of employers - the same employers who create jobs, make products, pay taxes and fuel the economic prosperity for which California has always been known.Illegal immigrants come to America for jobs, not benefits Smith and Grant, both have A.B.s and J.D.s, 1997 (Lamar and Edward, “Immigration Reform: Seeking the Right Reasons,” Lexis) [Charlie Stephens]The most powerful magnet for illegal immigration has always been the availability of well-paying jobs in America. The great engine of the U.S. economy has produced wages standing orders of magnitude above those available directly below our southern border and in the many other third-world and former second-world economies. Moreover, the U.S. unemployment rate has for years been well below that of European high-wage countries. As a result, millions of illegal aliens from all over the world have come to settle in this country. Most have come here knowing that they probably will have to work in relatively low-skilled jobsnand in the secondary labor market, where labor protections are scarce, job security low, and social status nil. However, even these conditions are preferable to those at home, and the illegal immigrant workers usually end up making more than the minimum wage.Last printed 98 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K999 AFF – No Link – Welfare Immigrants come for jobs, not social services Campeau, 6 (Dina, columnist specializing in affordable housing and the homeless, Morgan Hill Times“Pondering the Root Causes of Illegal Immigration”Mar 31, 2006http://www.morganhilltimes.com/opinion/182748-ponde ring-the-root-causes-of-illegal-immigration)There are as many as 25 different bills proposed to reform how America and California specifically deal with illegal immigrants. Not one will require Mexico's political administration to change its economic policies and practices that create abject poverty for its citizens and drive them north in the first place. Illegal immigrants from Mexico and other countries in Central America don't leave their families and decimate their communities with their exodus for the free health care and education. They come simply because even the lowest paying American jobs provide them with more income in a week than they would earn in months, sometimes a year, at home. It is a move by the desperate, not the adventurous. The proposed legislation contains lots of consequences that make it tough on immigrants to come or be here, all of which they have risked before and will continue to do so. None of it proposes ways to make staying in Mexico the better choice. Mexico's economy receives billions of dollars sent home to families left behind, so there is little motivation for any Mexican administration to discourage it. Given our nation's ability to make most of the world accede to our will, the lack of movement from our administration to tie its current and future aid to make that happen is what should be making us angry.There is no welfare magnet- Legrain, 7 (Philippe , journalist, economist, and Visiting Fellow at the European Institute of the London School of Economics “Immigrants, Our Country Needs Them” Interviewed byy Nick Schulz on TCS Daily, http://www.aei.org/article/26822, September 17, 2007)Legrain: Milton Friedman was right on many things, but I think he was wrong to claim that you can't have free migration and a welfare state. Admittedly, if people from poor countries are better off on welfare in rich countries than working in their country of origin, this could conceivably motivate them to migrate, and if enough poor people did this, a welfare state could become economically and politically unsustainable. But even in such cases, immigrants would still be even better off working than on welfare. So immigrants would have to be both enterprising enough to migrate in the first place but then suddenly sapped of enterprise once they arrive in a rich country. This is highly improbable--and there is no evidence, as even migration critic George Borjas concedes, that the US actually does act as a "welfare magnet" for people in poor countries. Besides, even legal migrants' access to social benefits is increasingly restricted in most rich countries. In the US, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996, commonly known as the welfare reform act, cut off immigrants' access to federal public benefits. If rich countries allowed free migration from poor countries, they could at the same time further restrict the availability of welfare so that only citizens or long-term residents could claim them. For instance, the British government has allowed workers from Poland and the other ex-communist countries that joined the European Union in 2004 to come and work freely in the UK, but barred them from claiming social benefits for two years. Likewise, although New Zealanders are free to move to Australia, since 2001 they no longer have access to social benefits until they become permanent residents. Free immigration is compatible with a welfare state, not only because few migrants are likely to move to claim social benefits when they could be earning much more working, but because they can be--and are--denied benefits that are available to citizens and long-term residents.Last printed 99 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9100 AFF – No Link – WelfareThe idea of the welfare magnet is false Hanson and Hartman, department of political science and sociology, 94 (Russell L. Hanson, John T Hartman, Department of Political Science at Indiana University and Department of Sociology at State University of New York at Buffalo In recent years policymakers have cited studies by social scientists to buttress their argument, but for different reasons these studies fail to provide a reliable test of the welfare magnet hypothesis. The Current Population Surveys supply a firm foundation for gauging the magnetic effects of high welfare benefits, and our results show that policymakers' fears of being overrun by poor migrants are groundless. We find no evidence that poor women are attracted to high benefit states by the possibility of receiving more assistance, or that poor women already living in high benefit states are liable to take advantage of relatively generous benefits provided therein. In short, the welfare magnet hypothesis is not sustained by data on the behavior of poor individuals. Consequently, state policymakers' efforts to restrict access to welfare are unnecessary (and unnecessarily harmful to those whose subsistence depends on welfare). Our findings also undercut those who argue for a national need standard in AFDC. At least the findings cut against those who base their argument on the need to extricate policymakers from a situation in which they find themselves unable to make reasonable assistance payments for fear of attracting too many migrants. In fact, that 29 was the motivation behind the study by Peterson and Rom, who hoped to show that a national need standard was needed to counteract the magnetic effects of interstate differentials in welfare benefits. That argument can no longer be made, unless new evidence of these magnetic effects is produced. Last printed 100 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9101 AFF – No Link - HealthcareHealthcare is not a magnet for immigration King, writer for Center for American Progress, 07 (Meredith L. King, Writer for Center for American Progress; a program dedicated to improving American lives through thoughts and actions 6/7/07 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/06/pdf/immigrant_health_report.pdf Job opportunities across the country are the “magnet” that draws immigrants to the country; not federal incentives such as health care coverage and services. Immigrants are most likely to be employed in indus-tries that do not offer health insurance coverage, such as agriculture, construction, food processing, restaurants, and hotel services.31 Immigrants are nearly four times more likely to work in the agricultural industry and two times more likely to work in the construction industry.32 Uninsured rates in these industries are over 30 percent for all workers compared to 19 percent for workers across all industries.33 Work opportunities through guest-worker programs also drive immigration. Yet the guest-worker pro-grams for temporary, unskilled labor (the H-2A program for agriculture workers and the H-2B program for non-agriculture workers) provide limited, if any, health care benefits to the documented immigrants in the programs.34 Immigrants in the H-2A program do have limited legal protections, including employer compensation benefits for medical costs and payment for lost time due to temporary or permanent work injury. But ag-ricultural employers in this program are not required to provide health insurance or other needed servic-es.35 And existing protections are rarely enforced. Immigrants in the H-2B programs do not even have those limited benefits. Their employers are obligated to offer full-time work and pay the prevailing wage rate, but there is no regulation requiring any of the benefits afforded H-2A workers.36 And while it may seem that H-2A workers have limited access to the health care system on paper, in practice they often find that they do not. These laborers often toil in two of the most dangerous industries, agriculture and forestry. Fatality rates in these two industries are nearly 10 times the national average.37 Yet both H-2A and H-2B workers often do not have health insurance to cover appropriate care. Even worse, if an injury or illness is severe, immigrant workers in these two programs lose their jobs and therefore their legal status to stay in the United States.38 Immigrant day workers experience a similar fate. A 2003–2004 national survey of predominantly undocumented day workers found a high level of occupational injuries. One-fifth of the day laborers had suffered a work-related injury, but less than half received medical care for their injuries.39 Purchasing health insurance through the private market is an unlikely option for mmigrants as well. The unskilled work of many immigrants is often low-wage;40 day workers were unlikely to have annual earnings that exceeded $15,000 and full-time immigrant workers average $23,000 in annual income in 2003.41 Yet the average annual premiums cost paid by a worker for individual employer coverage was $508 and for family coverage was $2412 that same year.42Last printed 101 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9102 AFF - No Link – HealthcareNo link – immigrants don’t take health care into consideration Frost, Steven Wallace is a professor in the UCLA School of Public Health, no date (Garrison Frost, Steven Wallace is , associate director of the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and professor in the UCLA School of Public Health No date, http://tcenews.calendow.org/pr/tce/insurance-expansion-undocumented-immigrants.aspx) New expansions of health insurance in California are unlikely to attract additional undocumented immigrants to the state, according to a new policy brief from the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. The brief notes that both legal and undocumented immigrants are primarily motivated to come to the state by employment opportunities and family reunification. As health insurance reform has risen to the top of California’s legislative agenda, the question of how such reform might impact undocumented immigration has become an important issue. “It’s a common misconception that undocumented immigrants will come to the state to take advantage of health insurance benefits,” said co-author Steven P. Wallace, PhD, associate director of the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and professor in the UCLA School of Public Health. “However, research shows that health insurance benefits are way down on the list of reasons undocumented immigrants choose a particular state. In most cases, these benefits have no influence on that choice at all.” For example, in-person interviews conducted in 1996-1997 with undocumented immigrants in four major cities in the United States (two in California), noted that less than 1 percent of respondents cited social services as the most important reason for immigrating. The most commonly cited reasons were employment or family reunification. To draw their conclusions, the brief’s authors reviewed existing research on the relationship between undocumented immigrants and public health insurance benefits. Because the number of these studies is relatively small, the researchers also analyzed the relationship between public health insurance benefits and legal immigration patterns, and the relationship between the migration patterns of low-income citizens crossing state lines in response to health insurance benefits offered by states. Other findings in the brief include: While a few studies of legal immigrants have found a small relationship between public benefit generosity and destination choice, most have found no association between the two factors. Studies also found that the location choice of legal immigrants is most strongly influenced by the presence of other immigrants from the same country, while the effect of public benefits offerings is weak at best. Immigrants in general and undocumented immigrants in particular, tend to be healthier than U.S.-born population and use fewer health care services. If health services acted as a magnet for immigrants, we would expect to see worse health conditions and higher use of health services than we currently observe. “With the health of Californians hanging in the balance it is critical that all discussion about health care reform be based on facts,” said Robert K. Ross, M.D., president and CEO of The California Endowment, which provided funding for the policy brief. “This should put to rest one of the more contentious issues standing in the way of comprehensive and affordable health coverage for all Californians.”Last printed 102 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9103 AFF – Immigration =/= enviro collapseEnvironmental impacts from immigrants aren’t based on qualified sources Muradian 06 (Roldan Muradian, Development Research Institute IVO, Ecological Economics Volume 59, Issue 2, 12 September 2006, Pages 208- 213 Migration, Globalization and the Environment - Migration, Globalization and the Environment) The underlying values and principles are critical when evaluating the immigration/environment relationship, because they provide the general framework and scale for the analysis. Besides, the evaluation of the overall environmental impacts of immigrants depends not only on the time and geographical scales adopted, but also on the capacity to determine the effects of changes in consumption patterns, the role of technology in abating or exacerbating specific environmental burdens, and the variables selected for measuring the impacts. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis should include political preferences of immigrants, long-term economic dynamics and cultural issues. Most of the statements made by environmental restrictionists on the relationship between immigration and the environment arise from partial analyses, focusing on local environmental impacts—mostly urban problems such as sprawl, traffic and pollution. Nevertheless, the complexity of the evaluation of the immigration/environment relationship would be considerably larger, and the outputs much more uncertain, if a broader scale of analysis, and a multicultural approach for tackling human values are adopted.Last printed 103 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9104 AFF – No Access to Welfare Illegal immigrants can’t access welfare benefits Fix and Passel, 02 (Michael and Jerry, Senior Vice President and Director of Studies at the Migration Policy Institute, “The Scope and Impact of Welfare Reform’s Immigrant Provision,” http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/410412_discussion02-03.pdf) [Charlie Stephens]For immigrants, PRWORA represented more than a simple regulation of access to cash benefit programs. Rather, the law’s immigrant provisions were a comprehensive revision of the nation’s laws governing access by legal immigrants, refugees, and illegal immigrants to virtually all federal, state, and local benefits for which eligibility is in some ways restricted. In this respect, the law departed from the piecemeal, program-by-program establishment of immigrant eligibility that had been typical in the past.Fear of deportation prevents illegal immigrants to access benefitsCornelius, Professor of Political Science, Gildred Professor of US_/Mexican Relations, and Director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies 2005 (Wayne A., “Controlling ‘Unwanted’ Immigration: Lessons from the United States , 1993-2004,” http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdf?vid=2&hid=101&sid=f08626ce-db48-4714-ac58-b7b7b937c6d1%40sessionmgr111) [Charlie Stephens] Welfare reform stimulated no mass exodus of unauthorised migrants, and there was no let-up in the massive wave of new immigration occurring in the second half of the 1990s. But immigrant parents whose children were eligible for benefits did not access them because of confusion and fear of disclosing information about themselves to the authorities. About three-quarters of all children living in immigrant-headed households in the United States are US citizens, and there was a significant decline in benefit use by such families in the latter half of the 1990s (Singer 2004: 31). In short, restricting access to public services has proved to be a very blunt instrument of immigration control; it creates major social problems, and it does not discourage illegal immigration.No link- immigrants can’t receive most public benefits Sakamoto, 3 (Izumi, Professor of Ethnic, immigration, and Pluralism Studies @ U of T “foreignness in the social work profession” 259-260, edited Rebecca Saunders, The concept of the foreign, 2003, http://books.google.com/books?id=c3MewfVUFQoC&pg=PA259&lpg=PA259&dq=%22welfare+magnet %22+and+illegal+immigration&source=bl&ots=X1Ju8eZfAP&sig=gDTua5XMqkHKRspOMyNZBEdV6kg& hl=en&ei=yp9NSs_AONO0tgfhrZCrBA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7)The meaning of the word immigrant has changed with the passage of time. The number of “white” ethnic immigrants has significantly decreased after a peak in the early 1900s, and more recent immigrants have mainly come from Latin America and Asia. Simultaneously, the word immigrant has come to represent the dissimilar other, particularly one who comes to the United States from a “less industrialized” or “poor” country, supposedly in order to receive social benefits such as a job and income security. One of the pervasive myths about foreigners in the United States is that “immigrants are heavy users of welfare and that both legal and illegal immigrants are drawn to this country by the lure of the ‘welfare magnet.’” This myth has been one rationale behind the tightening of public assistance for immigrants such as “welfare reform.” This is, however, a false notion since only refugees are entitled to receive public assistance from the date of entry, and other types of immigrants are restricted from receiving most forms of welfare. Moreover, in a logic of exclusion similar to that of COSs a hundred years ago, immigrants are often judged to lack the moral standards integral to American society and thus to be undeserving of public social services. While it is a fact that numerous public services exist today that were not available a hundred years ago, it is also a fact that eligibility of care is still established in ways that depend on a judgment about “personal responsibility” or the perceived “moral standards” of foreigners. Last printed 104 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9105 AFF – Welfare Magnet FalseThe welfare magnet theory is outweighed by multiple alternate causes Allard and Danziger, 2000 (Scott W., Associate Professor at the University of Chicago with expertise in social welfare policy, federalism and intergovernmental relationships, and urban policy. and Sheldon, Director, National Poverty Center Ph.D., Massachussetts Institute of Technology, “Welfare Magnets: Myth or Reality?” http://www.jstor.org/stable/2647678?seq=14) [Charlie Stephens] Migration is more influenced by factors other than welfare benefit levels: Racial minorities move less frequently than whites; younger heads of household move more frequently than older heads; the presence of family networks reduces a single head of household’s likelihood of moving; heads of household experiencing a recent divorce or separation move more than those who are already single parents; high school dropouts are less likely to move than those wit higher educational attainment. The findings and those of recent studies are at odds with the political rhetoric of state welfare magnets. Although most studies find that welfare benefits are not a major factor in interstate migrations, policy-makers continue to act as if the welfare magnet issue is an important one, and , as mentioned above, 15 states have recently adopted differential benefit levels for in-migrants.Last printed 105 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9106 AFF – AT: Immigrants => unemploymentImmigration doesn’t effect unemployment Salt Lake Tribune 5-20-09 ["Pro-immigration group's study contends immigrants don't impact unemployment" http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_12406866] Contrary to conventional wisdom -- and anti-illegal immigration rhetoric -- immigration rates have no direct effect on unemployment rates, according to a study released Tuesday. The study was conducted by the Center for Immigration Policy, the research arm of the pro-immigration American Immigration Law Foundation. It compared rates of unemployment with immigration rates in states across the nation, and found no direct correlation. "The level of unemployment in the U.S. is painful, sometimes scary and very difficult for those directly impacted," said Dan Siciliano, executive director of the Program in Law, Economics and Business at Stanford Law School and a research fellow for the Washington, D.C.-based center. "But the notion that immigration is causally related to unemployment belittles and questions the challenges of unemployment." The study included legal and illegal immigration. The center conducted the research in response to anti- illegal immigration groups blaming immigrants for high unemployment. The study's author cites unemployment rates that are about the same in the Pacific states and the East North Central states, although the rate of incoming "recent immigrants" --those arriving within the past 10 years -- is significantly higher in California than in Illinois. "We wanted to lay out the situation and dispel these notions," said lead author and demographer Rob Paral. "We wanted to untie this knot made between immigrants and unemployment." Mark Knold, chief economist at the Utah Department of Workforce Services questions the study itself, saying that immigration rates can not fairly be compared with unemployment rates. The reason for this is that if a family of five, for example, immigrated here, only one or two members may be seeking employment. "The unemployment rate is dictated by those who are actively looking for work," Knold said. However, he does agree with other pieces of the study, including the finding that an immigrant population can serve as a lubricant for a stalling economy. The study's author say immigrant populations are inherently more mobile, which means they can move to where the jobs are. "You're not going to round up laid-off workers in Michigan and put them on buses to agricultural fields in California," Siciliano said. "Having autoworkers picking lettuce is an absurd story." They argue that the economy is not a club where you can kick out those you don't want – immigrants-- to let others -- namely unemployed, U.S.-born workers -- take those positions. One anti-illegal immigration group, Save Utah, has created a program designed to honor employers who hire only workers legally able to work in the country. A business owner signs a pledge to hire only legal workers, and the group prints a certificate to hang up. But only half a dozen businesses have signed up since it launched earlier this year. In Utah, the 2008 employment rate was 3.5 percent for the whole population, but there was a large difference between whites and Latinos -- 3.3 percent versus 5.3 percent, respectively. Knold says that illegal immigration increases because the economy demands it, and immigration tapers off in economic downtimes. "We're not letting them come in legally in the volume that the economy is asking in the labor force, but there are side benefits. They are mobile and transitory, and they don't tend to stay in an area and weigh upon the social and economic costs in terms of unemployment and other benefits."Last printed 106 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9107 AFF – Impact Inev: Push factorsMultiple alt causes to illegal immigration Yoshida, 2000 (Chisato, “Illegal Immigration and Economic Welfare,” http://books.google.com/books? hl=en&lr=&id=hqDR06yTCE4C&oi=fnd&pg=PR7&dq=illegal+immigrants+welfare&ots=uedkRl1CuJ&sig=wahtNwIAioGRlZrWlk ZNrgN59JI) [Charlie Stephens] Since the 1980’s, there have been an increasing number of incentives for international migration, and still more incentives are to be expected in the future. In many poor countries, population growth exceeds the space of employment creation. Internal disturbances caused by political, ethnic and religious frictions reduce many to refugee statues, and they take shelter in safer and more prosperous countries. The extreme per-capita income gap between developed and less developed countries also induces large- scale migration. In addition, technological improvements in transportation and communications between countries reduce the costs of international migration, thereby encouraging international labor flows. These factors have caused undocumented illegal immigration from these poor countries to wealthier, developed countries. The U.S. government classifies illegal entrants under two categories. The first category includes persons who enter the country without any kind of legal visa (called “EWIs” since the “enter without inspection”). The second category includes persons who enter with legal visas (tourists and students, for example), but who then stay beyond the permitted time limit (called “visa overstayers” or “visa-abusers”). Most EWIs in the U.S. are from Mexico, and most visa overstayers are from non-Mexican countries (see Bean, Edmonston and Passel (1990)). First-time migrants into the U.S. often obtain assistance from U.S.-based relatives and friends, and/or buy services from a coyote (professional people- smugglers) in finding housing and employment (Cornelius (1989)).Alt causes- political instability, bad economies, and natural disasters Associated content 5-16-09 ["Tackling Illegal Immigration Epidemic in the United States" http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1657732/tackling_illegal_immigration_epidemic.html?cat=9]People migrate from their home country for one of the three major reasons: Political instability (Political Asylums), Economic crunch (high unemployment in their home country) or Acts of God (Natural Disasters - Humanitarian issues). a. Political Asylum - Political instability in many parts of the world is a major cause why people want to leave their home country. Because the United States is a dream-come-true for many throughout the world, human trafficking is also a major business for some. If one fears for their life in their home country, the best option would be to somehow scrape enough cash to pay a smuggler to smuggle them to... well anywhere, especially if an opportunity is presented to come to the greatest democracy in the world - the United States. Our government cannot be the world police. We can't resolvse all the world's problems and certainly can't prevent maniacs from causing political chaos to serve their individual purposes. We can however, give individual countries economical incentives to abandon their "nutty" ways of doing business.Last printed 107 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9108 AFF – Impact Inev Economic rebound will bring immigration surge Isackson, Border Reporter for KPBS, 6/5 (Amy Isackson, 6/5/09, Amy Isackson has been the border reporter at KPBS in San Diego since 2004. She covers breaking news and feature stories on California-Mexico border issues and immigration, for local and national broadcast, http://www.kpbs.org/news/2009/jun/05/study-predicts-illegal-migration-mexico-will-incre/) A new study shows migrants from Mexico are willing to brave tougher border enforcement if they know there's work on the U.S. side. KPBS Reporter Amy Isackson has more on the study from the Center for Comparative Immigration at the University of California San Diego. The Director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Wayne Cornelius and his team interviewed more than 1,000 people from a small town in the Mexican state Yucatan. He says three years ago, border enforcement didn't much factor into people's decision to cross. He says that's still the case, though 87 percent of people they spoke with believe it's very dangerous. Cornelius says enforcement has indirectly affected people's ability to migrate by making smugglers a necessity. “Relatives in the United States are the overwhelmingly important source to pay the coyotes' fees. The U.S. recession has reduced their disposable income, so they're no longer able to loan those thousands of dollars.” Cornelius says most people are waiting to cross until the U.S. economy rebounds. The study says smuggler's prices have tripled during the last eight years. Immigration inevitable- multiple reasons Stevenson, Writer for Associated Press 06 (Mark Stevenson, Writer for Associated Press 4/23/06 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi? f=/n/a/2006/04/23/international/i134728D82.DTL&feed=rss.news) America may want to stop illegal immigration, but most Mexicans accept it as a fact of life they can't imagine changing. Mexico's economy, society and political system are built around the assumption that migration and amnesties for undocumented migrants will continue — and that the $20 billion they send home every year will keep coming, and almost certainly grow. In fact, the government is counting on continued cash from a Mexican-born U.S. population it predicts will rise from 11 million to between 17.9 million and 20.4 million by 2030. "There have been amnesties and reforms before, and they will continue to occur periodically," said Jesus Cervantes, director of statistics for Mexico's Central Bank. President Vicente Fox is one of many Mexican who considers the migrants "heroes," because they send money to their impoverished home villages, and in some cases risk death walking into America in pitiless desert sun. Many families give their babies "American" names, figuring it will help them fit in when they make the inevitable trip north. In one central Mexican village, men on a dusty side road knowingly discuss which Long Island towns are best for day-labor work. Cervantes avoids using the common metaphor of migration as an escape valve for Mexico's social tensions, but says the country of 105 million people would be in trouble if 11 million migrants returned en masse. On the ground, the lure of America is evident. Abelardo Gonzalez, an elementary school director in the southern state of Oaxaca, said of his students: "From the time they are little kids, they have this idea of going north." So many people have left the farming town of Atotonilco in central Tlaxcala state, 480 miles from the U.S. border, that a sort of U.S. job placement network has grown up. Migrants send word home of a vacancy for a gardener in Los Angeles, a carpenter in Houston or a dishwasher in Raleigh, N.C. "A lot of people who leave already have jobs lined up," said Daniel Escalona Garcia, who sells building materials — largely for homes being built for absent migrants. When those homes will be inhabited is another question. Many remain half-built, or are finished but empty. It's common to see a well-built, two- story home being used to store hay. Skilled construction workers are scarce because most are in the United States. "All of the good houses belong to people who have emigrated," said Jose Contreras, whose five children live in the United States. Some of his grandkids were even given American names before they left. "They named one kid Johnny instead of Juan," the 79-year-old farmer said with a hint of disgust. "They thought it was a good idea." In the past, only adult men would go, said Escalona Garcia, "but now it's entire families, and boys as young as 14 or 15." Few in Mexico question the prevailing feeling that Mexicans have an inalienable right to go north, documented or not. A proposal in the Mexican Senate last year that would have kept migrants away from particularly dangerous border crossings when temperatures soared was denounced as doing the United States'"dirty work." It was withdrawn. Agustin Escobar, an immigration scholar at Mexico's Center for Research on Social Anthropology, is a maverick. He questions whether migration is good for Mexico, given that on average a migrant puts less money into the economy than a Mexican who stays here. But he doesn't get much of a hearing. "There is a great deal of resistance on the part of the government to even consider analysis of these issues," Escobar said. "The policy of not interfering with the flow of migrants has always been the easiest route." Last printed 108 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9109AFF – Drug Trafficking Good Drug trafficking is key to the Mexican economy StoptheDrugWar.org, 01 (6/29/01, “Drug Trade is Giant of Mexican Economy, New Book Claims -- Meanwhile, as Pursuit of Cartels Intensifies, Authorities Nervously Wait for Other Shoe to Drop,” http://stopthedrugwar.org/chronicle-old/192/shoetodrop.shtml) [Charlie Stephens]The Ciudad Juárez newspaper El Diario reported this week that, according to Mexican journalist Carlos Loret de Mola, author of a forthcoming book about the drug trade, Mexico's drug economy is almost twice as large as that country's largest legitimate economic sector, the oil exports. The annual income of the four "cartels" that dominate the traffic in Mexico would, if divided equally among them, amount to more than 17 times the annual income of Carlos Slim, Mexico's wealthiest man, for each cartel, writes Loret. Similarly, Loret concluded that profits from the cartels are three times greater than those of Mexico's 500 largest companies combined. According to El Diario, Loret's figures on the drug trade are derived from official and unofficial sources, as well as secret data compiled by the Mexican police agency CISEN and obtained by Loret. According to one CISEN document obtained by Loret, if the drug trade were to suddenly disappear in Mexico a hemispheric economic crisis would quickly ensue, with the US economy contracting by as much as a fifth and the Mexican economy reduced by more than half.Mexican economic collapse spreads worldwideRangel, staff writer, 1995 (Enrique, Dallas Morning News, 10/28/95, “Pressure on the Peso: Mexico’s Economic Crisis Global Implications,” With the exception of 1982 - when Mexico defaulted on its foreign debt and a handful of giant New York banks worried they would lose billions of dollars in loans - few people abroad ever cared about a weak peso. But now it's different, experts say. This time, the world is keeping a close eye on Mexico's unfolding financial crisis for one simple reason: Mexico is a major international player. If its economy were to collapse, it would drag down a few other countries and thousands of foreign investors. If recovery is prolonged, the world economy will feel the slowdown. "It took a peso devaluation so that other countries could notice the key role that Mexico plays in today's global economy," said economist Victor Lpez Villafane of the Monterrey Institute of Technology. "I hate to say it, but if Mexico were to default on its debts, that would trigger an international financial collapse" not seen since the Great Depression, said Dr. Lpez, who has conducted comparative studies of the Mexican economy and the economies of some Asian and Latin American countries.Last printed 109 0a3c12d5900b6e92f5df4167af11ae51.doc Dartmouth 2K9110 Aff- immigration inevitable Immigration will rebound- structure of our economy makes it inevitable Massey, 09 (Douglas Masey, Graduate from the University of Pennsylvania, 5/15/09 http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/05/15/nad_am_chiotakis_q_massey/) The United States has always been a nation of immigrants. But who will continue to seek opportunity here? Historically, more people have come from Latin America to this country. But that could be changing with stricter border enforcement and fewer jobs. Princeton sociology professor Douglas Massey joins us this morning and says there are consequences to all this. First off Professor Massey, good morning. What has immigration from Latin America meant to the U.S. economy over the years? DOUGLAS MASSEY: Well, it's been a major source of low-wage labor in the United States. It has played a leading role in sustaining the economic boom of the 1990s. As the boom of the 1990s developed, we hit record levels of low unemployment rates that economists said before couldn't be achieved without causing inflation. And yet, by the late 1990s we had rates of 4 percent or so. And we would have reached bottlenecks with labor shortages had it not been for immigration and immigrants coming into the country. CHIOTAKIS: But you don't think that, if there is a shortage of jobs, that people will say that more Americans and not immigrants will say, "OK, well, I'm getting a little desperate here. I don't mind changing the bedpans or going out and picking tomatoes or something like that." MASSEY: Well, in the short term that may be true. But in the longer term I think we'll return to a situation where those jobs will either be filled by immigrants, or they will disappear or move overseas. Every developed country has now become a country of immigration. And it's built into the economic structure of post-industrial societies, and it's built into the demography of post-industrial societies. Last printed 110

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