preparing for complexity European Parliament in 2025 CSG EP 2025 Long-term Trends Team March 2013 THE SECRETARY-GENERAL PREPARING FOR COMPLEXITY THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2025 ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION The present synthesis presented to the President and the Bureau is the result of an unprecedented collective brain- storming exercise involving all DGs of the European Parliament. Its aim was to identify structural changes to be initiated in order to prepare the European Parliament for a much more complex and challenging environment in the years to come. A first draft report (in this document: 'The Issues') drew on analyses of mega-trends from academic literature. The methodology followed was to compile central elements of theory from various disciplines (international relations, political sciences, social sciences, technology) concerning key long-term trends identified as relevant in the EP context. Academic works selected were among the most read and most frequently quoted ones. Those sources were completed by recent empirical analyses or opinions from think tanks, research bodies, expert groups or the media. This first draft report was discussed in the away-day of directors and directors general in September 2011. The different DGs then had the opportunity to raise their own questions about the complexity ahead of us and the way to prepare for it. As a result, a list of 130 questions was drawn up and circulated together with the report. The first draft report and the resulting questions were presented to the President, the Bureau and the Quaestors of the European Parliament on 27 January 2012 [The European Parliament 2025: Preparing for Complexity, Brussels, European Parliament, January 2012 (PE479.851/BUR], who supported the Secretary General's initiative. They shared the first conclusions, which outlined the growing complexity resulting from a more multi-polar world where governance is more and more a multi- level one, involving multiple actors in decision making and implementation. The multiple technologies becoming available are accelerating those changes. All DGs of the Secretariat were then asked to bring together their own answers to the question list approved by the Bureau, not only in their field of expertise but also on all other issues which they wished to address. Brainstorming in the DGs started in the second half of 2012, with answers gathered throughout every DG after internal meetings and consultations. A large number of relevant units were able to participate in the process. All these answers were compiled in consolidated documents at DG level and brought together [Preparing for Complexity. The European Parliament in 2025. Contributions of the Directorates-General by question, December 2012 (internal draft document)]. Further consolidation took place in the cabinet of the Secretary General to produce a second draft report deriving the best from DG contributions. This second draft report (in this document: 'The Answers') was submitted and discussed at the away-day of the directors and directors-generals in Bruges in January 2013 and revised after debates [Preparing for Complexity, The European Parliament in 2025. The Answers. January 2013 (internal draft document)]. This document is as presented to the Bureau of the European Parliament on 9 April 2013. EDITOR: Klaus Welle The Secretary-General European Parliament B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE: Franck Debié Team Leader EP 2025 Long Term Trends Cabinet of the Secretary General European Parliament B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSIONS: Original: EN REPORT COMPILED BY: Team EP 2025 Long Term Trends Cabinet of the Secretary General ___________ Manuscript completed in March 2013 Brussels, © European Parliament, 2013 ___________ DISCLAIMER Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. TABLE of CONTENT I. The European Parliament 2025 – Preparing for complexity - The Issues I.1. Part 1 – The report I.2. Part 2 – The questions II. Preparing for complexity – The European Parliament 2025 - The Answers PREPARING FOR COMPLEXITY THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2025 THE ISSUES THE SECRETARY-GENERAL THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2025 PREPARING FOR COMPLEXITY REPORT ABOUT THE REPORT Origin The present report is an initiative of the Secretary-General of the European Parliament. The objective is to progressively introduce an increased attention to the long term issues and to give to the EP's different stakeholders the opportunity to build their own vision of the long term major trends likely to impact their missions and their working processes. The purpose of the First Part (Part 1) of the Report was to initiate internal discussions, to raise questions and options (Part 2) as part of a continued and collective process to bring the functioning of the institution in line with its rapidly moving environment in a time of increased uncertainty. Methodology This First Part of the Report draws on analyses of mega-trends from academic literature. The methodology followed has been to compile central elements of theory from various disciplines (international relations, political sciences, social sciences, technology) concerning some key long-term mega-trends identified as relevant in the EP context. This short list of mega-trends is of course not exclusive. Academic works selected are among the most read and most frequently quoted ones. Those sources have been completed by recent empirical analyses or opinions from think tanks, research bodies, expert groups or the press, supporting hypotheses founded in theory. Findings The new multi-polarity of the globalised world, the multilevel nature of governance, the multiple players interacting in law-making, are likely to create a new context for the EP directly or indirectly. This heightened complexity may entail risks of fragmentation of (economic) governance, regulation and law. Fragmentation may lead to a loss of coherence, systematic overlaps and lasting conflicts between jurisdictions, as well as to an institutional paralysis, and, then, to democratic frustration, as it becomes more and more difficult to understand who is producing change in regulation and should be made accountable for success and failures. In order to contribute to actively prevent the risk of political and regulatory fragmentation, the EP has to prepare itself for this upcoming complexity. PE479.851/BUR EN This document has been presented to the President of the European Parliament, the Members of the Bureau of the European Parliament, Quaestors of the European Parliament and Directors General of the European Parliament during the 'Awaydays' meeting in La Hulpe, Belgium, on 26 & 27 January 2012. EDITOR: Klaus Welle The Secretary-General European Parliament B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE: Franck Debié Team Leader EP2025 Cabinet of the Secretary General European Parliament B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSIONS: Original: EN Translation: FR, DE REPORT COMPILED BY: Strategic Planning Team (2011) Cabinet of the Secretary General ___________ Manuscript completed in January 2012 Brussels, © European Parliament, 2012 ___________ DISCLAIMER Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. - 2 - TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 PART 1 - REPORT 11 INTRODUCTION - Four concepts bringing structure to a world of uncertainties 13 Multi-polar context 14 Multi-level governance 16 Multi-player policy making 19 20 Multi-tech accelerator shrinking time and space CHAPTER 1 - Multi-polar context 23 1. The realities of multi-polarity 24 2. Future of the European normative diplomacy and soft power 28 3. Relative decline of European foreign policy resources 30 4. EU changing security interests and influence channels of the Europeans 31 CHAPTER 2 - Multi-level governance 35 1. The rise and spill over of multi-level governance 35 2. Is decentralization sustainable? 40 3. The rise of localism 42 4. Making supra-national and multilateral decision levels effective and 43 accountable CHAPTER 3 - Doing politics in a multi-player context 47 1. Generational change and discontent with politics 47 2. Individual political entrepreneurship 50 3. Lobbying and coalition building at European level 52 4. Reforming the parliamentary institutions in face of growing anti-parliament 54 feeling - 3 - CHAPTER 4 - Legislative cooperation in the digital age 57 1. What basis for law in a globalised world? 58 2. What model of law? 58 3. The lack of transparency of EU law 59 4. From e-democracy to wikis: direct democracy nursing law? 61 5. The internet revolution and its effect on law 63 CHAPTER 5 - Ageing of the European population and related issues 65 1. World growth, stagnation in Europe and population ageing 65 2. Risk factors for excess mortality 67 3. Reduction in the national workforce and immigration 69 4. Socio-economic impacts of an ageing population 73 5. New patterns of work: unimaginable challenges 76 CHAPTER 6 - Multi-tech accelerator 81 1. Major trends in the development of the digital world 82 2. The challenges and risks of digitisation 87 CONCLUSION 95 BIBLIOGRAPHY 99 ANNEXE 1 AVAILABLE SOURCES 103 ANNEXE 2 PRESS ARTICLES 107 PART 2 - QUESTIONS 119 1. Multi-polar contexte 120 2. Multi-level