Conceptual Master Plans for the Brackenridge Tract PROJECT REPORT - APPENDICES VOLUME 3 APPENDIX D. Market Analysis D1. MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS SYSTEM: Brackenridge Tract Project Report Appendix AUSTIN, TEXAS Project Report University of Texas System Conceptual Master Plan for Development of the Brackenridge Tract Prepared for Cooper, Robertson, and Partners New York, NY Submitted by Economics Research Associates and Capital Market Research 14 October 2008 (revised September 25, 2009) ERA Project No. 17848 1101 Connecticut Avenue, NW Suite 750 Washington, DC 20036 202.496.9870 FAX 202.496.9877 www.econres.com Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Chicago Washington DC London New York Table of Contents I. Introduction and Project Overview .............................................................................. 5 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 5 II. Housing Market Analysis.............................................................................................. 7 Austin Apartment Market Overview......................................................................................... 7 Austin Apartment Demand Overview....................................................................................... 2 Central Market Area Apartment Market Conditions.................................................................. 4 Central Market Area Multifamily Demand Forecast................................................................... 6 III. Office Market ............................................................................................................. 11 Austin Office Market Overview .............................................................................................. 11 Downtown and Central Austin Office Market Conditions ....................................................... 13 Downtown and Central Austin Market Area and Study Area Absorption Forecast................... 18 IV. Retail Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 21 Trade Areas and Inflow .........................................................................................................22 V. Hotel Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 28 Hotel Demand Summary ....................................................................................................... 28 Hotel Market......................................................................................................................... 28 Visitation .............................................................................................................................. 29 Hotel Supply ......................................................................................................................... 29 Current Market Performance ................................................................................................. 31 Unmet Demand ....................................................................................................................31 VI. Appendix .................................................................................................................... 36 Economics Research Associates Project No.17848 Page 1 Index of Tables Table 1: Austin Apartment Summary 1991 - June 2008 .................................................................. 1 Table 2: Housing Demand, Austin MSA .......................................................................................... 2 Table 3: Citywide Apartment Summary Forecast 1991 - 2010.......................................................... 4 Table 4: Central Market Area Historical Occupancy.......................................................................... 6 Table 5: Multifamily Unit Demand, Central Market Area.................................................................. 7 Table 6: Planned Multifamily Central Market Area ........................................................................... 8 Table 7: Planned Multi-Family, Central Market Area .................................................................... 9 Table 8: Subject Absorption Forecast, Central Market Area............................................................ 10 Table 9: Employment Projections, Travis County (in 000s of persons)............................................. 12 Table 10: Office Market Summary, Select Market Areas, YTD......................................................... 13 Table 11: Absorption Trends, Select Market Areas, 2003 – 2008 YTD ............................................ 15 Table 12: Occupancy Trends, Select Market Areas, 2003 - 2008 YTD............................................. 15 Table 13: Full Service Rental Rate Trends, Select Market Areas, 2003 - 2008 YTD........................... 16 Table 14: Office Market Deliveries, Select Market Areas, 2003 - 2008 YTD..................................... 17 Table 15: Office Space Planned and Under Construction, Select Markets, 2003 - 2008 YTD ........... 17 Table 16: Office Space Demand and Absorption Schedule............................................................. 20 Table 17: Trade Area Retail Opportunity Gap ................................................................................ 24 Table 18: Primary Trade Area Retail Support.................................................................................. 24 Table 19: Secondary Trade Area Retail Support ............................................................................. 25 Table 20: In-Flow by Retail Category ............................................................................................. 25 Table 21: Market Demand Segmentation ...................................................................................... 26 Table 22: Supportable On-Site Retail Space (Sq Ft) ........................................................................ 26 Table 23: Current Hotel Supply, 25-mile radius of site ................................................................... 30 Table 24: Supportable Demand ....................................................................................................33 Table 25: Hotel Performance, 2001-2007 ..................................................................................... 34 Table 26: Historical Average Occupancy, Central Market Area ....................................................... 37 Table 27: Historical Average Rent per SF, Central Market Area....................................................... 38 Table 28: Travis County CoStar Detail............................................................................................ 39 Table 29: Austin City CoStar Detail................................................................................................ 40 Table 30: West Central Submarket Costar Data ............................................................................. 41 Table 31: CBD Submarket CoStar Detail ........................................................................................ 42 Table 32: Central Submarket CoStar Detail .................................................................................... 43 Table 33: Primary Trade Area Retail Demand Calculations.............................................................. 44 Table 34: Secondary Trade Area Retail Demand Calculations ......................................................... 45 Economics Research Associates Project No.17848 Page 2 Index of Figures Figure 1: Historical Absorption and New Units Added ..................................................................... 1 Figure 2: CoStar Office Submarkets............................................................................................... 14 Figure 3: Pipeline Office near Subject Site...................................................................................... 18 Figure 4: Retail Trade Areas .......................................................................................................... 22 Figure 5: Area Hotel Occupancies ................................................................................................. 31 Figure 6: Austin CBD Hotels .......................................................................................................... 35 Figure 7: Retail Sales Distribution .................................................................................................. 46 Figure 8: Retail Businesses Near Subject Site by Sales Volume ........................................................ 46 Economics Research Associates Project No.17848 Page 3 General & Limiting Conditions Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate as of the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Economics Research Associates from its independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and information provided by and consultations with the client and the client's representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, the client's agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report is