Patterns of gun trafficking: An exploratory study of the illicit markets in Mexico and the United States A thesis presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Security Science David Pérez Esparza Department of Security and Crime Science Faculty of Engineering Sciences University College London (UCL) September, 2018 1 Declaration I, David Pérez Esparza confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. 2 Abstract This thesis aims to explain why, against the background of a fairly global crime drop, violence and crime increased in Mexico in the mid-2000s. Since most classical hypotheses from criminological research are unable to account satisfactorily for these trends, this study tests the explanatory power of a situational hypothesis as the main independent variable (i.e. the role of opportunity). In particular, this involves testing whether the rise in violence can be explained by an increase in the availability of illegal weapons in Mexico resulting from policy changes and rises in gun production in the bordering U.S. To conduct this study, the thesis develops and implements an ad hoc analytic strategy (composed of six steps) that helps to examine each gun market (i.e. pistols, revolvers, rifles, and shotguns) both in the supply (U.S.) and in the illegal demand for firearms (Mexico). Following this market approach, the study finds that patterns of gun production in the U.S. temporally and spatially coincide with the patterns of gun confiscation (and violent crime) in Mexico. More specifically, analyses suggest that changes in illegal gun availability (across time and space) provide a better explanation for the observed difference in state-level homicide in Mexico than traditional hypotheses. The thesis presents additional analyses in favour of the situational hypothesis (through triangulation) and reports the findings of novel interviews with law enforcement officers with experience on gun trafficking in the U.S.-Mexico context. The study concludes by reviewing the key findings concerning the illicit markets between Mexico and the U.S., their theoretical and policy implications, as well as possible avenues for future research. 3 Impact statement Between 2005 and 2011, more than 52,000 civilians were killed with a gun in Mexico. During the same period, around 105,000 guns were confiscated in this country. While Mexico has one of the most restrictive gun policies in the world, the availability of illegal guns has increased substantially. Gun violence has become the leading cause of death, triggering a reverse in the life expectancy of the Mexican population, for the first time in recorded history. This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis concerning gun trafficking in this country. The research presents new spatial and temporal patterns regarding the supply and demand for guns. It is estimated that these analyses can provide policymakers, health specialists, and crime prevention practitioners with a background to design and implement crime-reduction initiatives based on empirical evidence. 4 Acknowledgements First of all, I wish to thank my supervisors, Professor Shane D. Johnson and Doctor Paul Gill, for their guidance, time and support. Both have been consistently very kind and generous. I am particularly indebted and grateful for all their patience, recommendations and advice throughout my doctoral research. I would also like to extend thanks to many people and organisations who generously contributed to the work presented in this thesis. I am very grateful to the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and to CONACYT for their generous financial support. I am also deeply indebted to all academics and security officers who shared their perspectives and enriched this thesis. I wish to show gratitude to a number of friends whose support has been very meaningful during this period. I would like to thank Ana, Eugenio, Helden, Juan, Martin, Christian, Francisco, Rodrigo, Fernando, Carola, Edgar, Fede, René and many others for all we have shared. Profound thankfulness goes to my friends Florian and Ciro, who were always there supporting me. Special mention also goes to my family, and particularly to my sisters, Elsa and Tania, who have always helped and supported me in many ways through the years. Last but not least, I am particularly grateful to my parents, Elsa and Jesus, for all their unbelievable guidance and continuous support. They are the most important persons in my life, and I dedicate this thesis to them. 5 Contents Chapter 1 . Introduction ...................................................................................... 15 1.1. Background and motivation ......................................................................... 15 1.2. The limitations of existing explanations for crime increase in Mexico........... 17 1.3. Situations and opportunities ........................................................................ 20 1.4. The trafficking of guns and the market approach ......................................... 22 1.5. Structure of the thesis ................................................................................. 23 Chapter 2 . Literature review ............................................................................... 28 2.1. Explanations for crime and crime increase .................................................. 28 2.1.1. Crime-related paradigms....................................................................... 31 2.1.2. Positivistic paradigm ............................................................................. 33 2.1.3. Rational choice ..................................................................................... 39 2.1.4. A critical appraisal of opportunity theories ............................................. 51 2.2. The study of firearms trafficking ................................................................... 57 2.2.1. The scope of firearms trafficking ........................................................... 58 2.2.2. Defining firearms trafficking ................................................................... 61 2.2.3. Distinctive features of firearms trafficking .............................................. 64 2.3. Firearms trafficking: the market approach ................................................... 72 2.4. More guns, more crime? A background to existing debates ........................ 80 Chapter 3 . The security challenge ..................................................................... 85 3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................. 85 3.2. Patterns of homicide in Mexico .................................................................... 89 3.3. Gun trafficking as explanatory variable for homicide increase ..................... 95 3.3.1. Changes in U.S. federal gun policy ....................................................... 95 3.3.2. Stability and stringency in Mexico’s federal gun policy .......................... 98 3.3.3. Testing gun trafficking between the U.S. and Mexico .......................... 102 3.4. Method and Results .................................................................................. 107 3.4.1. Data .................................................................................................... 107 3.4.2. Data on firearm production in the U.S ................................................. 111 3.4.3. Data on illegal firearm availability in Mexico ........................................ 114 3.4.4. Data on homicide in Mexico ................................................................ 115 3.5. Inferential Analyses ................................................................................... 117 3.5.1. Were changes in gun law associated with gun production in the U.S.? 117 3.5.2. Was the illegal availability of firearms in Mexico associated with gun production in the U.S.? ................................................................................. 118 6 3.5.3. Was illegal gun availability in Mexico associated with the increase in homicide? ..................................................................................................... 121 3.6. Conclusion ................................................................................................ 127 Chapter 4 . Understanding the supply: gun production in the U.S. ............... 130 4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 130 4.2. Manufacturing relocation ........................................................................... 133 4.2.1. Gun reforms as a contributing factor for relocation .............................. 136 4.2.2. A case for relocation ........................................................................... 139 4.2.3. Agglomeration economies and specialisation ...................................... 141 4.3. Data and methods ..................................................................................... 145 4.3.1. Data .................................................................................................... 145 4.3.2. Analytic Strategy ................................................................................. 145 4.4. Results ...................................................................................................... 158 4.4.1 National (aggregate) trends ................................................................