Climate Change Impacts in the Russian Arctic Searching for Ways for Adaptation Сompillation of basic recommendations prepared by WWF-Russia Moscow • 2009 Climate Change Impacts in the Russian Arctic, Searching for Ways for Adaptation. Сompillation of basic recommendations prepared by WWF-Russia. WWF-Russia, Moscow, 2009. - 64 pp. The study addresses climate change impacts on Russian Arctic. It formulates recommendations on ecosystem resilience, including: 1) enhanced system of protected areas; 2) conservation of unique biodiversity; and 3) monitoring and early warning systems, timely update of prognoses and planned measures. The study could be used for planning and subsequent implementation of resilience building and adaptation strategies and plans in Russian Arctic, including activities of wide range of stakeholders: officials, business, ecological organizations and public at national and local levels. Compiled by Dr. Olga Krever Editors: Dr. Victoria Elias, Dr. Alexey Kokorin Translated by: Vadim Vinichenko Design and Production: Alexander Filippov Photo on the cover: © Wim van Passel / WWF-Canon Circulation: 200 November 2009, WWF-Russia, Moscow, Russia Any reproduction in full or in part of this publication must mention WWF. Use of photographs from this publication is prohibited without written permission of WWF-Russia. © text 2009 WWF-Russia. All rights reserved. For free distribution Table of Contents Introduction 3 Chapter I. Observed climate changes 7 1. Surface air temperature 7 2. Precipitation 8 3. Snow cover 8 4. Permafrost 8 5. Sea ice in the Arctic basin 9 Chapter II. Projected climate changes 10 1. Climate models 10 2. Surface air temperature 12 3. Snow cover 12 4. Permafrost 12 5. Sea ice in the Arctic basin 13 Chapter III. Effects of observable and projected climate changes in Russia 14 1. Effects of observable and projected climate changes on biodiversity 14 1.1. Terrestrial Arctic ecosystems 15 1.2. Ecosystems of northern seas of Russia 22 1.3. Animals 28 1.3.1. Rare and endangered animal species 28 1.3.2. Valuable commercial animal species 31 1.3.3. Aquatic and semi-aquatic birds 34 1.3.4. Ichthyofauna 34 1.4. Plants 36 1.5. Invasive species 37 1.6. Animals – agents or vectors of dangerous diseases 38 2. Arctic specially protected natural areas in the conditions of changing climate 38 3. Impact of observed and projected climate changes on economic systems 45 3.1. Transportation routes, buildings and infrastructures 45 3.2. Oil and gas industry 48 3.3. Fishing industry 49 4. Impact of observed and projected climate changes on the public health 51 Chapter IV. Climate change adaptation measures 53 1. Approaches to adaptation 53 2. Proposals on conservation and enhancement of ecosystem resilience in the Russian Arctic 55 Bibliography 62 Introduction Global climate change with its effects is one of the most important issues of the 21st century. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Pan- el on Climate Change (IPCC) states that progressive climate warming takes place virtually throughout the world. There is solid scientific evidence that this change is caused mainly by human economic activities involving combustion of increasing amounts of fossil fuels and deforestation, and thus leading to emissions of greenhouse gases and increasing greenhouse effect. Russia is also affected by global climate change. According to the Russian Fed- eral Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshy- dromet), in 2007 annual average temperature exceeded the average value for the previous 121 year (since 1886) by 2.1°С (Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Effects in Russian Federation, 2008). Continuation of this trend may lead to undesirable and even dangerous effects on natural and economic systems, and on human health. IPCC’s findings also support this conclusion. In order to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the at- mosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, and in accordance with the UN General Assembly resolution 46/169 of 19 December 1991 on protection of global climate for present and future generations of mankind, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted by more than 180 countries at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The Convention entered into force on March 21, 1994; in 1994 the UNFCCC was ratified by the Russian Federation. In order to further develop UNFCCC provisions with regard to commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reduction; in 1997 the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC was adopted. The Protocol has defined commitments of the Parties (developed countries and countries with economies in transition) to reduce or stabilize their greenhouse gas emissions in 2008-2012 compared to 1990. The Protocol has been ratified by 185 countries (collectively responsible for more than 80% of the global greenhouse gas emissions). The first com- mitment period has started on January 1st 2008, and will last for five years, till December 31, 2012, followed by entering into force of a new agreement SEARCHING FOR WAYS FOR ADAPTATION 3 IntROduCtIOn (it is expected that the new agreement will be adopted in December, at the UN Conference in Copenhagen). In order to meet international commitments arising from the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, in the Russian Federation: ■ the Federal Law No. 128-FZ of November 4, 2004 “On the Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- mate Change” has been adopted; ■ Russian Registry of Carbon Units has been created (order of the Govern- ment of the Russian Federation No. 215-r of February 20, 2006); ■ the activities on implementing provisions of the Kyoto protocol regarding car- bon sequestration through afforestation are carried out, in particular, on unused agricultural lands (pilot projects in Ulyanovsk and Nizhny Novgorod Regions); ■ about 50 Joint Implementation (JI) projects to be hosted by Russia in ac- cordance with Article 6 of the Protocol have been prepared; ■ a legal framework necessary for hosting JI projects in accordance with the article 6 of the Protocol has been created, in particular: • the Commission for the Review of the Applications for the Project Activ- ities Implemented in Accordance with the Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC has been established; • a list of independent expert organizations accredited to issue expert con- clusions on JI projects has been approved; • Russian system of JI projects and Russian participation in emission trad- ing have to be more robust and user-friendly (order of the Government of the Russian Federation No 884-r of June 27, 2009); ■ Russian Climate Doctrine is prepared, its’ main principles were success- fully considered by the Presidium of the Government at April 23, 2009. The document was presented for comments on the web-site of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology at May 28, 2009. Currently the Doctrine has been sent to the President for signature. The Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Fed- eration for the Period till 2020 (approved by the Order of the Government of the 4 CLimate CHANGE Impacts IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC IntROduCtIOn Russian Federation No. 1662-r of November 17, 2008) defines climate change as one of the main factors affecting global economic development, which will have a serious impact on socio-economic processes in Russia for the next 10 – 15 years. In view of the importance of the issue, a project for elaborating scenarios of development of natural processes and changes in water resources, taking into ac- count impacts of human activities and global climate change, has been included in the List of Research and Development Activities, approved by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 988 of December 24, 2008. However, existing assessments of potential effects of climate changes are focused mainly on various economic sectors, including energy (thermal power plants, hy- dropower etc.), agriculture, forestry, water resource management (water supply systems), transportation infrastructure, metal and oil refinery industry. In assessing potential measures to minimize climate change and its effects, taking into account financial potential of these measures, preference is given to financially sound options for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in eco- nomic sectors, first in the processing industry (cement production and ferrous metal industry) and transportation, and then in the energy sector. This is a reasonable approach, since these measures are aimed at meeting commitments arising from the UNFCCC provisions regarding preparation of regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases. At the same time, existing assessments of the effects of climate changes do not pay sufficient attention to impacts of these changes on biological diversity (particularly on vulnerable ecosystems, including Arctic ones, as well as rare and endangered animal and plant species), and reversibility or irreversibility and magnitude of these impacts. The area studied even less and therefore ignored is the mutual influence of climate and ecosystems. It remains unclear whether the effects of global warming are amplified or dampened by functioning of natural mechanisms. For example, a higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the air increases photosynthesis in some