Supplemental Lecture Material

Supplemental Lecture Material

<p> Data File 1</p><p>Supplemental Lecture Material Separating the Wheat and the Chaff: • One . . . [example of a spurious con- Spurious Correlations nection] is the strong positive correlation between places of worship in a locale and Researchers commonly encounter behaviors the number of bars in the same vicinity. that seem to be related to one another in some The explanation is obvious: Religion way. In the case of the number of miles a car drives people to drink. (Beins, p. 3) is driven and its gas consumption, there is an obvious and genuine connection. But simply In most research problems, however, the because two behaviors share a significant spurious nature of the correlation may not be statistical correlation does not always prove immediately clear, requiring additional that there is a real relationship between the information and careful interpretation to two variables. establish the real nature of the connection With complex systems, it may be difficult between the variables. Indeed, important to determine if a statistical correlation is issues may be riding on correctly evaluating genuine or completely coincidental and and understanding the correlation. spurious. While the continental drift of the West Coast of North America may be highly [A] story I sometimes use is based on a correlated with the growth of the federal Nova television show from a few years deficit in recent decades, it is unlikely that back. Chinese medical researchers had there is a meaningful connection between the found a correlation between incidence of two. Apparently, there is also a strong human esophageal cancer and the negative correlation between the number of incidence of tumors in chickens. Were the PhDs and the number of mules in a state. As chickens the source of the human cancers? one commentator remarked, “Are the PhDs Were the humans giving the chickens their created when mules die?” Similarly, a positive tumors? What they eventually found was correlation exists between ice cream sales and that regional preferences for a fermented deaths by drowning. The same researcher cabbage dish and minerals in the soil in humorously asked if “people buy more ice which the cabbage was grown gave both cream when they hear of a drowning?” Even the humans, who ate the cabbage, and the when a connection exists, it may be trivial or chickens, who ate the scraps, their tumors. misleading. In the end, correlation is worthless (Street, p. 3) without interpretation, and that interpretation should be as well-grounded as possible. Discussion Questions Consider the following examples: • My favorite spurious correlation is 1) What steps can individual researchers between shoe size and the ability to solve adopt to prevent spurious correlations? What mathematical equations (or any other task can the community of researchers do? requiring schooling). The students usually express a lot of puzzlement over that one, 2) What spurious correlations have you come until you point out that children’s feet tend across in your own thinking? to grow as they go through school. (Wuensch, p. 3) 3) Can you think of spurious correlations that have had important effects upon history Data File 2</p>

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