<p> Easum, Bandy & Associates</p><p>“Emerging Trends and 21st Century Realities Re-Shaping The Role of Denominational Leaders” From our 2001 Denominational Event</p><p>Bill Easum</p><p> [email protected] www.easumbandy.com</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 “Emerging Trends and 21st Century Realities Re-Shaping The Role of Denominational Leaders” </p><p>I. Introduction</p><p>A. One retiring denominational leader said to me, "I'm glad this nightmare is about over. My conscience would not allow me go on much longer doing to churches what we have to do to place all of our pastors."</p><p>B. However, some things are changing. Another denominational leader joyfully said to me, “Since I started being a consultant to individual churches instead of playing problem solver for all the churches on my district I have had a rewarding time.”</p><p>II. Three realities to keep in mind during these two days</p><p>A. Christianity doesn’t depend on denominations for its existence or success.</p><p>B. The history of denominations as we know them today is barely 500 hundred years old. Therefore, it is foolish to take them for granted or feel that they are God- ordained.</p><p>C. We are living in transitional times. Something really Big has been taking place the last 40 years that happens only once or twice in a millennium. Every four or five hundred years the world profoundly changes. We are living in such a time.</p><p>1. The ontological and epistemological foundations of Modernity and Christendom are giving way to new world views. The death of the Modern Age. The death of Christendom.</p><p>2. We’re moving from incremental and exponential change to radical discontinuity from all that has come before. The world twenty years from now will not be recognizable.</p><p>D. The result is that we now live in a world with no rules. </p><p>E. Scientists have a word for what we are going through. They call it a “wormhole*.” Two theories exist about wormholes. One theory is that a wormhole is a portal in space that offers rapid travel from one universe to another. Scientist think that whatever enters, exits the other side totally different. The other theory is that a wormhole is a hole in space into which whatever enters ceases to exist. We are spiraling away from a world view that has existed for 500 years to one that is not yet born.</p><p>F. The primary characteristics of the world of the wormhole are speed, blur, and flux. In such a world flexibility is essential. Whether one is liberal or conservative or belongs to this group or that no longer matters. All that matters is that one is revolutionary in the way mission is carried out. For more on this subject see my new book Leadership On The OtherSide from Abingdon.</p><p>G. This wormhole is causing major shifts in denominational trends that should concern us.</p><p>1. As of 1997, every mainline denomination is declining in membership and is getting older. The tried and true long-term church members are dying off faster than we are</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 replacing them. We are sitting on the edge of a mesa. Nothing suggests that this trend is going to change.</p><p>2. The changing culture is intensifying the financial challenges for denominations. People who have not grown up in a church culture will not automatically support denominational issues. Nor will they simply be church members. Young adults feel no loyalty to institutions or denominations. The average age of donors is increasing. Over the past four years our average age has ranged from 55.4 to 61.4 years of age. Over the next 25 years the majority of the best givers in U.S. history will pass from the scene and those who remain have not been taught the joy of tithing nor do they operate out a sense of duty.</p><p>3. There will be fewer denominational leaders in the 21st century. 35% of mainline denominations are cutting staff.</p><p>4. Each year there are fewer mainline congregations mostly due to constant bickering and a fear of taking a risk.</p><p>5. A full 40% of pastors are either passive or hostile to denominational pressures for money. The pastor is denominations primary link to the congregation.</p><p>6. Too many denominational officials are still in denial. Ever heard anyone say the following:</p><p>“All we need to do is ride out this storm and everything will return to normal.”</p><p>“When the Boomers grow up they will support the system.”</p><p>“The problem is in the pew not the headquarters.”</p><p>“Young people will give once their kids are raised.”</p><p>H. In such a world, can we assume that denominations will continue to exists or will something replace them?</p><p>III. Wormhole questions that may hold the key to understanding the future. The answer to these questions is found in further questions yet to be fully realized. </p><p>A. The following questions should open some doors for conversation during the roundtable.</p><p>1. What changes will denominational leaders make when they understand that North America is a mission field?</p><p> a. What is the difference in being missional church and an institutional church?</p><p> b. What is the difference in being a representative of the denomination and being a representative of the Kingdom?</p><p> c. What will be the role of church planting in a missional church?</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 2. Will denominational leaders have any authority in an out-of-control, anti-institutional, non-religious worldview? Our present world is undergoing deconstruction in every facet of life. Institutions are losing favor and spirituality is back and is redefined. </p><p> a. What does it mean to live in a world where one’s spirituality is more important than credentials?</p><p> b. If authority is based on relationships rather than credentials or office, will there be a need for national denominational leaders, and if so, what will be their role?</p><p> c. How will denominations respond to Called pastor who refuse to attend seminary?</p><p> d. How will denominations respond to gifted pastors who refuse to be supervised and advised by the denomination but are willing to enter into an accountability relationship?</p><p> e. In a world where people tend not to join groups, how will denominations compete with parachurch groups?</p><p>3. What will Christianity look like when it is not defined by the printed word? When personal narratives, electronic ink, visual images, holographics, and virtual reality occupy much of people’s time, at least three questions emerge;</p><p> a. How will we communicate the message and engage truth?</p><p> b. How do we transition from handing out data that informs people to offering an experience that transforms people?</p><p> c. How will we help people grow spiritually instead of just teaching them more about the Bible?</p><p>4. What will be the role of denominational leaders when the church is understood as missional rather than institutional. The Reformers “marks of a true church” is out. Church will not be defined as the place where the gospel is rightly preached , the sacraments dully administered, and church discipline exercised. Already, concerns such as house churches, cell groups, warehouse churches, cyberchurches, and “city reaching” are gaining priority over the health or growth of our congregations.</p><p> a. Will denominations survive or be relevant in an anti-institutional world? And if so, how and what will they look like? </p><p> b. How will we “be” the church instead of “go” to church?</p><p> c. How will we celebrate such things as communion, baptism, and ordination?</p><p>5. The ultimate question as we move through the wormhole - What is non- negotiable and what is eternally significant to God’s mission? All else will probably change. </p><p>IV. Because there are so many important trends, I will focus only on what I consider to be the Mega Clues that will directly effect denominational leaders. Here are the Mega Clues:</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 A. The machine oriented, command and control, top down world of the Industrial Age is giving way to an Organic oriented, out-of-control, bottom up world of Postmodernism. In such a world the nurture and growth of people replaces the management of organizations.</p><p>B. Western capitalism based on values from Greece, Rome, and Jerusalem is giving way to the postmodern, value-free form of capitalism. In such a world, the tried and true methods of fund raising are being replaced by new forms of giving.</p><p>C. The belief in multiple forms of truth is replacing the concept of ultimate truth. In such a world, clarity of mission is essential. </p><p>D. National causes are being replaced by local issues. In such a world regional judicatories will be more effective, giving to denominational issues will continue to decline, and generic programming is obsolete.</p><p>E. The anti institutional sentiment of the last 25 years continues to grow. In such a world most denominations will continue to become smaller.</p><p>F. The Internet continues to grow and will become the primary form of communication, information, commerce, and networking throughout the world. In such a world, new ways are needed to communicate with pastors and congregations.</p><p>G. Communication and education are entering the visual, experiential, and interactive world of virtual reality. In such a world experience, not denominational affiliation, will become the rallying point.</p><p>H. The transformation of and the apathy toward authority and tradition. Authority must now be earned and even then is seldom given. The basic root of authority now is the individual human being. In such a world, how one lives before others determines the amount of authority they might receive but even then authority is more team oriented. This means that the local or regional denominational leader could play a more relevant role than national judicatories.</p><p>The following was posted one of our online forums.</p><p>“I sometimes think that as judicatory authority wains, what is "required" and what is "recommended" begin to merge and then cross over. What I mean is that congregations seem increasingly prone to ignore or reject direct judicatory requirements (literally daring further action), and yet seem increasingly prone to accept recommendations (provided of course that they are daringly and credibly offered). The recommendation of a spiritual leader, a credible, authentic, mentor to congregations, has more power than the requirement of a mere institution or hierarchical authority figure”.</p><p>I. The world population is moving to the city. In such a world, denominations must be involved in urban missions, reaching the city, and new church starts. </p><p>J. Immigration is changing the face of North America. Europe is no longer the major stream of immigration to North America. In such a world, denominational leaders will have to be multi-cultural and multi-racial.</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 K. Society continues to become more hostile to local congregations and more open to spirituality. In such a world, only high commitment groups and denominations will do well.</p><p>L. Historically few denominations have existed more than 200 years. In such a world we must be aware that our experience with denominational life is not normative. </p><p>II. The implications of these Mega Clues for effective ministry in the 21st century.</p><p>A. By far the greatest challenge of the early part of the 21st century is the need to raise leaders who can function in a world of speed, blur, and flux.</p><p>1. Denominational leaders need to support the mavericks who minister at the edges.</p><p>2. Denominations need to pour more time, energy, and money into training than they do construction. For more on the issue of leadership see my new book Leadership On The OtherSide, by Abingdon.</p><p>B. The clash between the old and the new will shape most of the first two decades of the 21st century. Radical change in society leads to turbulent and trying times in society and for established organizations.</p><p>1. The only established churches that will survive are those that are culturally relevant and biblically sound.</p><p>2. This means that if not careful, the primary role of denominational leaders will be that of conflict resolution. If this trend continues, it will be the death blow of the denomination.</p><p>C. The growing segments of Christianity will continue to rediscover first century Christianity. This means that:</p><p>1. The sharpest contrast between thriving and dying churches will be a commitment to Jesus Christ, indigenous styles of worship, and lay ministries. In a pagan society you have to say which God you are referring to - the God of Jesus Christ. At the heart of this church will be the question, What is it about your relationship with Jesus Christ that the world cannot live without knowing? Indigenous worship is in the language, technology, and culture of the people you are trying to reach. The Priesthood of the believer will finally emerge. Most of the ministry in healthy churches will be done by the laity. Lay pastors will be the norm.</p><p>2. All leadership will be based on experience and proven results rather than academic training or forms of elections. Authority is no longer just what one knows or the degrees one has; now it is how one lives and what one does with his life. More and more pastors will bypass the traditional seminary.</p><p>D. The effective denominations are organized around The Prime Directive. In a world of no rules, the church must be clearer than ever about its mission, thus the current emphasis on mission or purpose statements or core values. </p><p>1. The Prime Directive is making disciples who make disciples. Felt needs will be responded to primarily in order to make disciples.</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 2. A Permission-Giving system undergirds the prime directive. </p><p> a. Denominational leaders will have less and less direct control over congregations.</p><p> b. Church government will change from representative democracy including nominating and voting to permission giving structures based on spiritual gifts and demonstrated leadership. For more on this see my book Sacred Cows Make Gourmet Burgers from Abingdon. </p><p> c. Representation and representative democracy will disappear in the church. Voting is out; prayer is in.</p><p>3. Leaders are willing to drop anything that does not enhance the PD or add anything that might enhance it.</p><p>4. Innovation and risk taking is a normal way of life.</p><p>E. Reaching a defined area or group of people (Postmodernity’s emphasis on organic and relational) will replace the present focus on growing churches (Modernity’s emphasis on institutions). Institutional life will cease being the PD. The focus will be on the Kingdom rather than institutions. </p><p>1. This focus on kingdom is behind one of the most potentially revolutionary ministries in the U.S. .... the many trans-denominational efforts to reach large metropolitan areas. The number of parachurch groups and multi-denominational emphasis on reaching the large city is multiplying each year with groups such as Vision New England, lead by Steve Machia; Mission Houston, lead by Jim Herrington; International Urban Associates, led by Bakke; and the Harambee Christian Family Center in Los Angeles, lead by Rudy Carrasco. These ministries and leaders have roots in the community. Their goal is not just to convert people and to help local congregations as much as it is to spiritually and socially transform the city. 0 For more on this subject visit our website at www.easumbandy.com and look under the FAQS section.</p><p>2. Emphasis will shift from an emphasis on small, medium, and large churches to what is the percentage of penetration of all the churches into the city.</p><p>3. Missional alliances rather than denominational affiliation will be the primary loyalty in the 21st century. Examples are Willow Creek Association, Calvary Chapels, Vineyard Churches, Promise Keepers, Good News Movement, Confessional Methodists, Chrysalis, Cursillo, Emmaus, etc. </p><p>(1) They are bound together by a common mission and faith statement.</p><p>(2) This effort will eliminate many of the traditional roles of judicatories.</p><p>(3) Ecumenism based on mission or trans-denominational missions is on the rise.</p><p>(4) Cooperation between congregations of different denominations is increasing.</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 F. Churches will become smaller, more intimate, and will ask for higher commitment.</p><p>G. Multiple Sites will become the norm because of the loss of the importance of place in the 21st century. The many technological advances such as the Internet will make location irrelevant. Couple this with the desire to follow the PD instead of building institutional churches and you have a formula for churches with more than one location.. For a list of churches with multiple sites see our website at www.easumbandy.com and look under the FAQS section.</p><p>H. Multi-track churches will become the norm. Many churches will find that established patterns of worship, education, pastoral care, and nurture will be necessary to reach people born on either side of and in the middle of the wormhole. </p><p>I. Mainline denominations will continue to decline while new loosely associated groups will emerge. The market share of mainline churches has shrunk from 40% in1906 to 16% in 1999. This raises a serious question for young pastors - Is the established course the best course for us to follow? </p><p>1. Parachurch groups will take over most of the educational and support aspects of denominations and judicatories of all levels.</p><p>2. Denominational affiliation of the larger, effective churches will either increase or diminish depending on whether denominational leaders view the church as a teaching church or do they view it as a maverick to bring in line or a cash cow from which to extract money? Large churches no longer need the denomination. Will their vast knowledge be tapped by denominational leaders?</p><p>J. The clergy picture is changing. Every mainline denomination will have fewer clergy each year. The average age of present clergy is 48. The number of young males entering the ministry is declining. The number of second career and thus shorter careers is increasing. The number of women entering seminary is not enough to offset the almost 50% decline in men since the 1970's. The majority of mainline clergy will be women by the midpoint of 21st century. More and more mainline clergy resemble corporate executives climbing a career ladder. More and more clergy are not attending seminary or they are not attending a denominational affiliated seminary. More and more of the great churches are raising up their future pastors and staff from within the congregation. More and more Protestant pastors will be women and the majority of Catholic churches will be run by Deacons and Women Religious. We are already seeing Protestant seminar enrollment reflect the growing role of women. More Women Religious are running many Catholic Churches.</p><p>K. Cyberchurches will become some of the largest churches and may be the new form of megachurch.0 Those who say that the cyberchurch is not authentic because it can not offer valid community, simply have not been part of a cybercommunity.</p><p>L. Social ministries will flourish as government continues to fail in the social sector. The government has come to the realization that it cannot provide everything that society needs. . We will see it pull away from social services more and more. This abandonment of people will leave a vast hole into which our churches can step and again become the primary educator and service providers. 0</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 M. The attitude of denominational officials is changing rapidly.</p><p>1. Twenty years ago no one would listen to me when I said we were in trouble.</p><p>2. Today most denominational officials realize that the effectiveness of denominational leaders is declining.</p><p>3. The future belongs to those who can change the fastest and easiest for the purpose of making disciples who make disciples.</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 Recommended Books</p><p>Darrell L. Gruder, The Missional Church, Eerdmans, 1998 Thomas Bandy, Christian Chaos, Abingdon Press, 2000 Bill Easum, Leadership On The OtherSide, Abingdon Press, 2000 Michael Mazarr, Global Trends 2005, St Martin’s Press, 1999. Dee Hock, The Chaordic Age, Berrrett-Koehler, 1999 Joseph Pine and James Gilmore, The Experience Economy, Harvard Press, 1999 Don Tappscott, Growing up Digital, McGraw Hill, 1998 Eddie Gibbs, ChurchNext, Intervarsity Press, 2000 George Hunter, The Celtic Way Of Evangelism, Abingdon Press, 2000. Brian McLaren, The Church On The Other Side, Zondervan, 2000. A New Kind Of Christian, Zondervan, 2001</p><p>Copyright: Easum, Bandy & Associates, 2000 0 .Three good books on this growing field are City Reaching by Jack Dennison; Cities: Missions’ New Fronteir, by Greenway and Monsma; and Planting and Growing Urban Churches, edited by Conn.</p><p>0 .Two examples of churches online are www.cyberchurch.org www.hawaiian.net/~rnpilot</p><p>0 .For more see James Dale Davidson & William Ress-Mogg, The Sovereign Individual (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1997).</p>