Braintree District Council Chelmsford City Council Colchester Borough Council Tendring District Council Objectively Assessed Housing Need Study Peter Brett Associates July 2015 Office Address: 16 Brewhouse Yard, Clerkenwell, London EC1V 4LJ T: +44 (0)207 566 8600 E: [email protected] Project Ref 33171 Minor revisions to paragraph 7.18 – 7.22 (24/07/2015) Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the client. This report has been prepared for the client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2015 THIS REPORT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING. ii Objectively Assessed Housing Need Study CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 2 DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET AREA ............................................................... 3 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 3 The NHPAU geography ................................................................................................ 3 Migration ...................................................................................................................... 4 Commuting ..................................................................................................................10 Maldon – migration and commuting .............................................................................14 House prices ...............................................................................................................16 Conclusions.................................................................................................................17 3 THE OFFICIAL HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ..........................................................18 Introduction .................................................................................................................18 Recent releases ..........................................................................................................18 The 2012-based projections ........................................................................................19 4 ALTERNATIVE DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIOS .........................................................21 Introduction .................................................................................................................21 Fixed vs non-fixed migration profiles ...........................................................................21 Unattributable Population Change ...............................................................................22 Alternative base periods ..............................................................................................26 Conclusions.................................................................................................................29 5 LONDON’S HOUSING NEED .....................................................................................30 The GLA demographic scenario ..................................................................................30 Impact on the HMA......................................................................................................32 Conclusions.................................................................................................................33 6 FUTURE EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................34 Introduction .................................................................................................................34 The Experian forecast .................................................................................................39 Conclusions.................................................................................................................41 7 PAST PROVISION AND MARKET SIGNALS ............................................................43 Introduction .................................................................................................................43 The HMA .....................................................................................................................43 House prices ...............................................................................................................45 Affordability .................................................................................................................46 Overcrowding and concealed households ...................................................................49 July 2015 iii Objectively Assessed Housing Need Study Summary .....................................................................................................................50 Braintree .....................................................................................................................51 Chelmsford ..................................................................................................................54 Colchester ...................................................................................................................57 Tendring ......................................................................................................................60 Conclusions.................................................................................................................63 8 AFFORDABLE HOUSING ..........................................................................................64 National guidance .......................................................................................................64 9 CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................66 The housing market area.............................................................................................66 The demographic starting point ...................................................................................66 Adjustments ................................................................................................................67 Alternative distributions ...............................................................................................68 Policy implications .......................................................................................................69 TABLES Table 2.1 Migration containment, strategic HMA, 2010-11, persons ...................................... 8 Table 2.2 Overall migration containment for alternative areas ..............................................10 Table 2.3 Overall commuting containment, strategic HMA, 2011 ..........................................13 Table 2.4 Commuting - overall containment .........................................................................14 Table 2.5 House price changes, Essex districts, 2002-12 ....................................................17 Table 3.1 Population, households and dwellings, 2013-37, ONS/CLG 2012 .........................19 Table 3.2 Components of population change, 2013-37, ONS/CLG 2012 ..............................19 Table 4.1 Alternative scenarios, change p.a. 2013-37, Braintree ..........................................27 Table 4.2 Alternative scenarios, change p.a. 2013-37, Chelmsford ......................................27 Table 4.3 Alternative scenarios, change p.a. 2013-37, Colchester .......................................27 Table 4.4 Alternative scenarios, change p.a. 2013-37, Tendring ..........................................28 Table 4.5 Alternative scenarios, change p.a. 2013-37, total HMA .........................................29 Table 5.1 SNPP 2012 & GLA Central Scenario compared ...................................................32 Table 6.1 Job growth, 2013-37, Edge Analytics ....................................................................36 Table 6.2 Net new dwellings p.a. 2013-37, SNPP 2012 and Edge Analytics Employed People scenario....................................................................................................................37 Table 6.3 Population 2011-31: EEFM and SNPP 2012.........................................................38 Table 6.4 Economic activity rate % .......................................................................................39 Table 6.5 Unemployment rate % ..........................................................................................39 Table 6.6 Jobs 2011-31: Experian and EEFM ......................................................................40 Table 7.1 – Mean house prices ............................................................................................45 July 2015 iv Objectively Assessed Housing Need Study Table 9.1 Population, households and dwellings, 2013-37, ONS/CLG 2012 .........................66 Table 9.2 Objectively assessed housing need, 2013-37 per annum .....................................68 Table 9.3 Alternative distribution ..........................................................................................69