Weekly Iraq .Xplored report 29 April 2017 Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq garda.com/ips Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 29 April 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ACTIVITY MAP .................................................................................................................................................... 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook ............................................................................................................................ 4 SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Turkish airstrikes against PKK aligned group in Sinjar increase tensions ................................................. 5 THREAT MAP ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................................... 7 Mosul Update ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 Political ................................................................................................................................................................ 8 WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 10 Countrywide Military/Security Situation ........................................................................................................ 10 ACRONYM LIST ................................................................................................................................................ 15 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES .............................................................................................. 16 GARDAWORLD.................................................................................................................................................. 16 This report is an abridged version of GardaWorld Weekly Iraq .Xplored April 29, 2017. To subscribe to the full versions of the daily/weekly Iraq .Xplored reports, or for enquires relating to other GardaWorld services, please contact [email protected] Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise. Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [2] garda.com/ips Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 29 April 2017 ACTIVITY MAP Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [3] garda.com/ips Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 29 April 2017 OUTLOOK Short term outlook . Hundreds of thousands of Shia pilgrims are currently making pilgrimages to Kadhimiyah to commemorate the anniversary of the death of Imam Musa al-Khadim on April 23. Restrictions and associated travel disruption/delays are also anticipated on routes between Sunni areas such as Mansour and Kadhimiyah where the commemorations will take place. IS have followed patterns set during previous pilgrimages, targeting pilgrims with suicide and VBIED attacks, though ISF have appear thus far to have disrupted several attacks. Mass casualty attacks may occur against secondary targets in outlying Shia neighbourhoods such as Bayaa, New Baghdad Sadr City, though successful attacks in more central areas cannot be ruled out given the high level of foot traffic. As the operation in West Mosul grinds on, there is a heightened risk of high-profile attacks in permissive areas across Iraq including Baghdad, Salah ad Din and Diyala, as IS retains intent to increase sectarian tensions and force a redeployment of ISF resources away from Mosul. This is underlined by recent VBIED attacks in Shia-dominated areas of Baghdad City as well as multiple lower level IEDs, especially in eastern Baghdad. With ethno-sectarian tensions currently heightened in Kirkuk, there is also an increased possibility of high- profile attacks in Kirkuk City, although IS capability to conduct such an attack is assessed as less than in those areas with a majority Sunni demographic. An increase in attacks can also be expected in eastern Anbar, in particular the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, as evidenced by recent high-profile attacks in the region. The security footprint and other local factors in the south, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the sort seen in the north and the west of the country, though the threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province. Medium to long term outlook . In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates. Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS. While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant. Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [4] garda.com/ips Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 29 April 2017 SIGNIFICANT EVENTS Turkish airstrikes against PKK aligned group in Sinjar increase tensions In his weekly news conference, aired live by state-sponsored Iraqia News TV on April 25, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi warned Turkey against conducting further airstrikes inside Iraq. His comments came after the Turkish military confirmed that it had carried out airstrikes on April 25 against Sinjar Resistance Unit (YBS) locations in Sinjar Mountains in the northwest of Nineveh province. The strikes reportedly killed six and wounded 10 including several non-aligned forces. Abadi has denounced the ‘unjustified’ Turkish attack on Sinjar in northern Iraq, saying that it might lead to a dangerous escalation in the region. He also described the attack as a violation of Iraq's sovereignty and a breach of international law. Abadi warned Turkey against further strikes in the area, a move which he said would undermine regional efforts against IS. Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [5] garda.com/ips Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 29 April 2017 THREAT MAP COUNTRY WIDE INCIDENT TOTALS Confidential and proprietary © GardaWorld [6] garda.com/ips Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 29 April 2017 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS Mosul Update Mosul Tactical Update Fighting has continued in the remaining 30-40% of West Mosul still under IS control. CTS in the western districts have reported control over al-Thawra, Al-Islah al-Ziraie and Tanak, and fighting has progressed into adjacent Zinjili, north of the Old City, and into Rifai and Haramat, both north and east of al-Thawra. No progress has been reported in the confined, extensively fortified Old City, where Federal Police and Interior Ministry forces have reportedly held positions, including their 300m stand-off from the IS-held al-Nuri Mosque, for around a month. However, Federal Police have reported the rescue of thousands of civilians, forcibly held by IS as human shields in Mosul’s Old City. Similar reporting was also seen in Al-Islah al-Ziraie. Airstrikes have continued to attrit IS leadership in contested neighbourhoods, with at least four IS members