Changed Voting Changed Politics Changed Politics Changed Voting Lessons of Britain’s Experience of PR since 1997 Lessons of Britain’s The Constitution Unit Changed Voting Changed Politics The Constitution Unit Lessons of Britain’s Experience of PR since 1997 School of Public Policy, UCL 29–30 Tavistock Square London WC1H 9QU Final Report of the Independent Commission to Review Britain's Experience of PR Voting Systems £20 ISBN: 1 903903 29 7 ISBN: 1 903903 29 7 First Published April 2003 Copyright © The Constitution Unit Published by The Constitution Unit School of Public Policy, UCL 29–30 Tavistock Square London WC1H 9QU Phone: 020 7679 4977 Fax: 020 7679 4978 [email protected] www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/ This report is sold subject to the condition that is shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher’s prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. Changed Voting Changed Politics Lessons of Britain’s Experience of PR since 1997 Members of the Independent Commission Co-Chairs: David Butler, Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford Peter Riddell, Chief Political Commentator, The Times Vice-Chair: Professor Robert Hazell, The Constitution Unit, UCL Members: Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat MEP Professor John Curtice, Strathclyde University Chris Bryant, Labour MP (Rhondda Valley) Mark Lazarowicz, Labour MP (Edinburgh North) Jocelyn Davies AM, Plaid Cymru Chief Whip, Welsh Assembly Baroness Gould, Former Labour Party Official Darren Johnson, Green Party Leader, Greater London Assembly Peter Kellner, Chairman, YouGov Graham Mather, Former Conservative MEP Hugh Muir, The Guardian Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish National MSP Andrew Tyrie, Conservative MP (Chichester) Caroline White, BBC Secretary: Simon King, The Constitution Unit, UCL Online Consultation Mark Rickard, The Hansard Society Coordinator: The Commission is based at The Constitution Unit School of Public Policy, University College London 29–30 Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9QU phone: 020 7679 4979, fax: 020 7679 4978 web: www.prcommission.org 2 Background to the Commission and terms of reference In 1997 the Labour manifesto contained a generously financed by the Nuffield commitment to hold a referendum on the Foundation and the Joseph Rowntree voting system for the House of Commons. Charitable Trust. That commitment was not directly repeated. Instead, in 2001, the Labour manifesto The Commission includes members from all promised a review of Britain’s experience of parties, some of whom have expressed views the new PR voting systems, introduced in favour of proportional representation and during Labour’s first term, before considering some of whom have been defenders of first- any changes to the electoral system for the past-the-post (FPTP) voting; most, however, House of Commons. This Independent are uncommitted in the debate over electoral Commission has been established to assist systems. It is not the intention of the that review. Commission to arrive at a comprehensive The 2001 Labour Party General Election verdict for or against a change for Manifesto stated that: Westminster. The goal is to collect and analyse the evidence needed to inform any The government has introduced major decision about changing the voting system innovations in the electoral systems used in for the House of Commons or for regional or the UK—for the devolved administrations, other bodies. the European Parliament and the London Assembly. The [Jenkins] Commission on the Voting System made proposals for electoral reform at Westminster. We will review the experience of the new systems and the Jenkins Report to assess whether changes might be made to the electoral system for the House of Commons. A referendum remains the right way to agree any change for Westminster. The Independent Commission, set up by the Constitution Unit initiated a programme of research in advance of the 2003 elections, seeking to ensure that the Government’s review is based upon the best available evidence. This Commission has been 3 Ter ms of Reference ■ To review the experience of the new PR voting systems used in the elections for the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales, Greater London Assembly and for the European Parliament. ■ To consult as widely as possible, and in particular to seek the views of citizens and voters as well as politicians and the political parties about the new voting systems; ■ To consider the advantages and disadvantages of the new voting systems, and report on any implications for Westminster; ■ To consider elections to the second chamber as well as the House of Commons; ■ To produce an interim report in spring 2003, and a final report by early 2004. The Commission has focused on the lessons Winetrobe. In London we are grateful to from Scotland and Wales, from the 1999 Tony Travers, Hugh Muir, Dermot Scott and European Parliament elections, and the 2000 Darren Johnson. elections for the London Assembly. It also looked at the evidence from Northern Ireland Many put a lot of work into preparing the of voters’ attitudes to the single transferable report. In particular Ben Seyd, Meg Russell, vote (STV), and their capacity to cope with David Farrell, Chris Ballinger, John Curtice, different electoral systems. Finally, the Caroline White and Peter Kellner. In addition Commission has examined the Alternative several academics were particularly helpful, Vote. Although this system is not currently namely Ron Johnston, Anthony King, Patrick used in the UK, it was recommended by the Dunleavy, Helen Margetts, Michael Independent Commission on the Voting Gallagher, Vernon Bogdanor, Bill Hartas, System, chaired by the late Lord Jenkins. Philip Kestelman, Clive Payne and Adrian Blau. We would also like to thank Ben Acknowledgements Marshall of the Electoral Commission for making survey data available. The Commission are extremely grateful to those who assisted in answering questions, Finally the chairmen would like to thank providing venues for seminars and helping to Simon King for his tireless work in write the report. In particular they would supporting the Commission and in like to thank: Jocelyn Davies, Dafydd researching and drafting the report. The Trystan, Leigh Jeffes, Jessica Morden, Huw thoroughness of the report and the extensive Roberts, Hugh Rawlings and Paul Silk in bibliography are testament to his scholarship Cardiff. In Edinburgh we would like to and his industry: he has been unstinting in thank Derek Barrie, Brian Taylor, George his support. Reid, Katie Grant, Mark Lazarowicz, Lord Douglas-Hamilton, Paul Tyler and Barry 4 Table of contents Members of the Independent Commission 2 Background to the Commission and terms of reference 3 Terms of Reference 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 CHAPTER ONE: OUR TASK: REVIEWING BRITAIN’S EXPERIENCE OF NEW VOTING SYSTEMS 11 Introduction: The Scope and Nature of our Enquiry 11 CHAPTER TWO: THE VOTING SYSTEMS IN THE UK: A QUICK GUIDE 14 CHAPTER THREE: THE CURRENT SYSTEM 15 Issues in this chapter 15 Historical and Political Context 15 Debating the virtues and vices of first-past-the-post 15 Defects of first-past-the-post 17 Conflicting views of representative government 19 Public Understanding and attitudes to first-past-the-post 19 Online Consultation 20 Conclusion 22 CHAPTER FOUR: CRITERIA FOR JUDGING BRITAIN’S EXPERIENCE 24 Issues in this chapter 24 Criteria used by others 25 Our criteria 28 5 CHAPTER FIVE: FAIRNESS 30 Issues in this chapter 30 Introduction 30 Votes and seats 30 Thresholds 31 Public attitudes to fairness 33 Conclusion 34 CHAPTER SIX: ELECTORAL SYSTEM DESIGN AND VOTER CHOICE 35 Issues in this chapter 35 Introduction 35 Voter choice 36 The Supplementary Vote 38 The Alternative Vote 39 The Single Transferable Vote 40 Voter confusion 41 Party control 44 International Evidence 48 Conclusion 49 CHAPTER SEVEN: PUBLIC ATTITUDES TO DIFFERENT ELECTORAL SYSTEMS 50 Issues in this chapter: 50 Introduction 50 Public Attitudes to Different Systems 50 Variations In Attitudes To Electoral Systems 53 International evidence 58 Factors influencing Public Attitudes to Electoral Systems 58 Evidence From The Online-Consultation 59 Conclusion 60 CHAPTER EIGHT: PARTY COMPETITION AND CAMPAIGNING 61 Issues in this chapter 61 Introduction 61 The effect of different electoral systems on the number of political parties 61 Have new voting systems led to different styles of campaigning? 66 6 Campaigns under AMS 67 The 1999 European Parliament Campaign 69 Conclusion 69 CHAPTER NINE: PARTY CANDIDATE SELECTION 71 Issues in this chapter 71 Introduction 71 Party centralisation 71 Conclusion 76 CHAPTER TEN: MOBILISATION 78 Issues in this chapter 78 The Decline in Voter Turnout 78 Turnout in Scotland, Wales, London and the European Parliament 80 Conclusion 82 CHAPTER ELEVEN: REPRESENTATION 84 Issues in this chapter 84 Introduction 84 The Different Roles of List and Constituency Representatives under AMS 85 Competition and Tension between Constituency and List Representatives 89 MEPs, Constituency Work and the Electoral System 93 Constituency Service under STV 94 Conclusion 95 CHAPTER TWELVE: THE EFFECT OF ELECTORAL SYSTEM CHANGE ON GOVERNMENT 96 Issues in this chapter 96 Introduction 96 Achievements of the coalition governments in Scotland and Wales 97 The ‘new politics’ in Scotland and Wales 98 The role of elections 101 The nature of the government outcome 101 The role of