ARABELLA ANALYTICAL REPORT DECEMBER 2006 enter for Global Development: C Evaluation of Impact PRODUCED FOR: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation William and Flora Hewlett Foundation John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Rockefeller Foundation CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT: EVALUATION OF IMPACT Evaluators: RICHARD BUMGARNER DOUGLAS HATTAWAY GEOFFREY LAMB JAMES G. MCGANN, PH.D. HOLLY WISE Project Manager: J. Andreas Hipple Edited by: J. Andreas Hipple Project Assistant: Stacy Leff Eric Kessler Stacy Leff Ann Olson December 2006 Copyright © 2006 Arabella Philanthropic Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS An Introduction to this Evaluation.................................................................................................... 5 Chapter I: Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 7 CGD at 5 ..........................................................................................................................................................................7 A Research Agenda with Impact ....................................................................................................................................8 Respected Analysis..........................................................................................................................................................9 Managing Outreach and Communications .....................................................................................................................9 Leveraging Partnerships................................................................................................................................................10 Chapter II: Key Findings................................................................................................................. 12 Rigor and Relevance ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Communications and Outreach....................................................................................................................... 13 Case Study: Making Markets for Vaccines Initiative.................................................................................... 14 Case Study: Nigerian Debt Relief Initiative................................................................................................... 15 Case Study: Population Dynamics and Economic Development Initiative................................................. 16 Chapter III: The Rigor and Relevance of CGD’s Products ........................................................ 17 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 17 CGD and the Pursuit of Rigor.......................................................................................................................................18 Setting the Research Agenda.........................................................................................................................................19 Rigor and Policy Relevance ..........................................................................................................................................22 Evaluating the Impact of Rigor.....................................................................................................................................35 Chapter IV: Communications and Outreach................................................................................ 38 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 38 Target Audiences, Message, and Strategy....................................................................................................................39 Products and Events.......................................................................................................................................................47 Online Communications................................................................................................................................................54 Media Relations.............................................................................................................................................................66 Outreach.........................................................................................................................................................................71 Chapter V: Case Study – Making Markets For Vaccines Initiative .......................................... 82 Context ...........................................................................................................................................................................82 Commentary...................................................................................................................................................................82 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 83 The Working Group.......................................................................................................................................................84 Did They Start at the Beginning?..................................................................................................................................86 Who Did the Work?.......................................................................................................................................................86 Whose Voice?................................................................................................................................................................87 Communicating and Consensus....................................................................................................................................88 Quality of Work.............................................................................................................................................................89 Where Did It End?.........................................................................................................................................................90 What Was the Impact?...................................................................................................................................................90 Chapter VI: Case Study – Nigerian Debt Relief Initiative .......................................................... 92 Context ...........................................................................................................................................................................92 Commentary...................................................................................................................................................................93 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 94 Motivation, CGD Decision-making and Work Process...............................................................................................94 Analytical Quality..........................................................................................................................................................95 Outcome and Impact......................................................................................................................................................99 Chapter VII: Case Study – Population Dynamics & Economic Development Initiative ......102 Context ........................................................................................................................................................................ 102 Commentary................................................................................................................................................................ 102 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................. 104 Motivation, Decision-making and Work Process...................................................................................................... 104 Quality and Relevance................................................................................................................................................ 106 Outcome and Influence............................................................................................................................................... 108 Appendix A: Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................110 Appendix B: About the Center for Global Development...........................................................111 3 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 112 Mission........................................................................................................................................................................ 112 Audience and Strategy...............................................................................................................................................