COUNTY OF SAN MATEO SEA LEVEL RISE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT COUNTY OF SAN MATEO SEA LEVEL RISE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT PUBLISHED MARCH 2018 This report was completed with funding from the California State Coastal Conservancy. SEA LEVEL RISE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS San Mateo County Board of Supervisors Circlepoint District 1 – Dave Pine Provided design services to create custom graphics and District 2 – Carole Groom lay out the assessment. District 3 – Don Horsley Project Advisors District 4 – Warren Slocum County of San Mateo District 5 – David Canepa Supervisor Dave Pine Project Funders Supervisor Don Horsley California State Coastal Conservancy Peggy Jensen Authors Jim Eggemeyer County of San Mateo Danielle Lee Hilary Papendick, Climate Change & Adaptation Michael Barber Program Manager Deborah Hirst Jasneet Sharma, Climate Resiliency Specialist Jim Porter Carolyn Raider, Resource Conservation Specialist Sandy Wong Avana Andrade, Resource Conservation Specialist Matt Fabry Emi Hashizume, Resource Conservation Specialist Brian Perkins Montserrat Plascencia, Sustainability Fellow Erika Powell Sally Prowitt (former Climate Resiliency Specialist) Joe LaClair Timothy Carter (former Sustainability Fellow) Kim Springer Reid Bogert California State Coastal Conservancy Kelly Malinowski, Project Manager, California State Coastal Conservancy San Francisco Bay Area Kelly Malinowski Matt Gerhart Arcadis Amy Hutzel Jessica Ludy Alex Trahan Stakeholder List Heather Sprague Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) Alain Pinel Realtors Project Manager Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Hilary Papendick, Climate Change & Adaptation Bay Area Regional Collaborative (BARC) Program Manager Bay Localize Consultants Bay Planning Coalition Arcadis Bayshore Sanitary District Served as a technical lead on the project, completed California Coastal Commission asset inventories and asset maps, and developed California Department of Fish and Wildlife the assessment methodology, asset characterization California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) report, the Asset Vulnerability Profiles, the sea level District 4 rise and groundwater report, recommendations for California State Coastal Conservancy reducing risk, and the administrative draft report. California State Lands Commission California State Office of Assemblyman Rich Gordon AECOM California State Office of Assemblyman Kevin Mullin Completed the Sea Level Rise & Overtopping Analysis California State Office of Congresswoman Jackie Speier for San Mateo County’s Bayshore report, collected California State Office of Senator Jerry Hill GIS data, and developed the asset exposure maps and the OCOF and ART memo. SEA LEVEL RISE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Caltrain San Carlos Airport Cargill, Inc. San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development City of Belmont Commission (BCDC) City of Brisbane San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) City of Burlingame San Francisco International Airport (SFO) City of Daly City San Francisco Public Golf Alliance City of East Palo Alto San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) City of Foster City San Francisquito Creek Joint Powers Authority (SFCJPA) City of Half Moon Bay San Mateo - Foster City School District City of Menlo Park San Mateo County Department of Public Works City of Millbrae San Mateo County Economic Development Association City of Mountain View (SAMCEDA) City of Pacifica San Mateo County Harbor District City of Redwood City San Mateo County Office of Education City of San Bruno San Mateo County Office of Emergency Services (OES) City of San Carlos San Mateo County Office of Supervisor Horsley City of San Mateo San Mateo County Office of Supervisor Pine City of South San Francisco San Mateo County Office of Sustainability City of South San Francisco/San Bruno Water Quality San Mateo County Office of the County Counsel Control Plant San Mateo County Parks Department City/County Association of Governments of San Mateo San Mateo County Resource Conservation District (RCD) County (C/CAG) San Mateo County Transit (SamTrans) Committee for Green Foothills San Mateo County Transportation Authority (SMCTA) Coravai, LLC. San Mateo County Union Community Alliance County of Marin Santa Clara County Office of Sustainability East Palo Alto Sanitary District Sewer Authority Mid-Coastside Environmental Risk & Financial Solutions (ER&FS) Shore Up Marin Facebook Sierra Club, Loma Prieta Chapter Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Silicon Valley Clean Water (SVCW) Region IX Silicon Valley Community Foundation Foster City Chamber of Commerce Silicon Valley Joint Venture Genentech, Inc. South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project Gilead Sciences, Inc. San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Google Association (SPUR) Granada Community Services District (GCSD) Sustainable San Mateo County Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) Sustainable Silicon Valley Kaiser Permanente Town of Atherton League of Women Voters Town of Colma Life Moves Maple Street Shelter Town of Hillsborough Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Town of Portola Valley Midcoast Community Council Town of Woodside Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Mid-Peninsula Water District United States Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) Montara Water & Sanitary District United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration West Bay Sanitary District (NOAA) Westborough Water District North Coast County Water District (NCCWD) Youth United for Community Action (YUCA) Oracle Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Plus members of the Sea Level Rise Community Task Pacifica Care Center, Inc. Force, and over 100 community members Point Blue Port of Redwood City SEA LEVEL RISE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT | 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 11 ES.1 Vulnerability Assessment Goals ...................................................................................................................... 11 ES.2 Methodology and Approach ............................................................................................................................ 12 ES.3 Vulnerability Analysis........................................................................................................................................... 13 ES.3.1 Public Health................................................................................................................................................... 14 ES.3.2 Governance and Vulnerability ................................................................................................................. 14 ES.3.3 Cascading Impacts ..................................................................................................................................... 14 ES.4 Adaptation Planning .......................................................................................................................................... 14 ES.4.1 Adaptation Planning Considerations...................................................................................................... 14 ES.4.2 Policy Responses in the County of San Mateo ..................................................................................... 14 ES.4.3 Strategies for Adaptation .......................................................................................................................... 14 ES.5 Getting Ahead of Sea Level Rise ..................................................................................................................... 15 ES.6 Research Needs .................................................................................................................................................. 16 ES.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 16 Chapter 1 | Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 18 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 1.2 Background on Sea Level Rise and Key Concepts ........................................................................................ 19 1.2.1 Adaptation to Climate Change ................................................................................................................... 19 1.2.2 Regulatory Context ....................................................................................................................................... 20 1.2.3 Sea Level Rise Science ................................................................................................................................. 21 1.2.4 Sea Level Rise in California, the San Francisco Bay Area, and San Mateo County .......................... 21 1.2.5 Impacts from Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................................................... 22 1.2.6 San Mateo County ........................................................................................................................................