Zurich Open Repository and Archive University of Zurich Main Library Strickhofstrasse 39 CH-8057 Zurich www.zora.uzh.ch Year: 2012 City development under the constraints of complexity and urban governance: A case study on the application of systems modelling and ‘syntegration’ to the city of Fürth Mieg, Harald A ; Grafe, Fritz-Julius Abstract: This paper presents insights from the so-called ‘syntegration’ process, which helped the German city of Fürth to overcome severe financial deficit. The approach comprises both systems modelling, in order to grasp the developmental prospects of a city, and an accelerated process of consensus-building within the city, which is closely connected to implementation. Syntegration is viewed within the context of urban governance. The findings suggest that leadership is indispensable in initiating and controlling such an urban change process. ‘Syntegration’ and ‘Malik Syntegration’ are registered trade marks owned by Malik. Posted at the Zurich Open Repository and Archive, University of Zurich ZORA URL: https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-201126 Journal Article Accepted Version Originally published at: Mieg, Harald A; Grafe, Fritz-Julius (2012). City development under the constraints of complexity and urban governance: A case study on the application of systems modelling and ‘syntegration’ to the city of Fürth. Journal of Urban Regeneration and Renewal, 6(1):91-100. Mieg:JSC page.qxd 05/10/2012 11:50 Page 91 City development under the constraints of complexity and urban governance: A case study on the application of systems modelling and ‘syntegration’ to the city of Fürth Received: 20th July, 2012 Harald A. Mieg and Fritz-Julius Grafe are geographers and urban researchers at the Georg-Simmel Center for Metropolitan Studies of the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (www.gsz.hu-berlin.de). The Georg-Simmel Center is an interdisciplinary platform for the coordination of research and teaching, directed by Harald A. Mieg 2005–2011. Harald A. Mieg is particularly concerned with sustainable urban development, Fritz Grafe with urban system analysis. ABSTRACT This paper presents insights from the so-called ‘syntegration’ process, which helped the German city of Fürth to overcome severe financial deficit. The approach comprises both systems modelling, in order to grasp the developmental prospects of a city, and an accelerated process of consensus-building within the city, which is closely connected to implementation. Syntegration is viewed within the context of urban governance. The findings suggest that leadership is indispensable in initiating and controlling such an urban change process. ‘Syntegration’ and ‘Malik Syntegration’ are registered trade marks owned by Malik. Keywords: systems modelling, syntegration, consensus building, urban governance, leadership, cross-sectoral communications INTRODUCTION or demographic change) to understand Economic change with uncertain prospects, and steer urban development. This presents demographic change and empty public two fundamental questions: First, what are coffers describe a situation typical of many the impact factors? Secondly, how do they mid-sized German towns and cities interact? Demographic change, either (between 10,000 and 100,000 inhabitants). through ageing of a city’s population or These are just some of the facets that define increased migration, also influences the urban development, not only in Germany, economic base of the city, particularly but in many cities around the world. The local consumption patterns. Factors for Harald A. Mieg and Fritz-Julius Grafe question arises: How can urban urban development go by many Georg-Simmel Center for development be managed effectively within descriptions within the literature. For Metropolitan Studies, Humboldt-Universität zu the context of a multitude of external and instance, at the highest level of abstraction, Berlin, Berlin, Germany. internal pressures? Pacione1 and Stratmann2 defined a set of E-mail: [email protected], In practice, it is necessary to identify ‘global trigger factors’ describing changes [email protected] relevant factors (such as economic growth in urban development: demographic, ᭧ Henry Stewart Publications 1752-9638 (2012) Vol. 6, 1, 91–100 Journal of Urban Regeneration and Renewal 91 Mieg:JSC page.qxd 05/10/2012 11:50 Page 92 Mieg and Grafe Political Change? Cultural Change Demographics Economy Technologies Figure 1: Trigger factors of urban development societal (eg vertical and horizontal Horizonte, Brazil; and Werl, Germany. The mobility within a city), technological, following section provides an introduction economic, cultural (eg changing values to the city of Fürth and its greatest and lifestyles), political and, finally, development problem — spiralling deficit. environmental. Figure 1 shows possible The paper then turns to the urban change interrelations between these impact process through which the city has factors. For instance, economic change attempted to address this deficit problem. seems to be closely tied to several others The third section introduces the method factors, such as technological change or applied: syntegration, a consensus-building changing social structures, whereas tool related to systems modelling. The demographics constitutes a more final section summarises the results and independent factor. The role of politics or highlights the issue of leadership. even political change cannot be clearly portrayed in this way. Not every combination of factors is THE CITY OF FÜRTH relevant at all times or for every example; Fürth’s best-known son is the diplomat however, the complexity increases and Nobel Peace Laureate Henry exponentially with the number of factors Kissinger, who remains a firm supporter of taken into account; here, systems Fürth’s football club, Spielvereinigung modelling comes into play. Systems Greuther Fürth. Historically, Fürth was modelling allows simultaneous evaluation first documented in 1007, and therefore of the interactions between a great has a typical early-medieval city number of factors, and thus identification foundation. Today, it is located in the of the most active factors within a system. Bavarian administrative district of Middle In this context, a research project was Franconia; together with Nürnberg and initiated on the current use and prospects Erlangen, it creates a dense city triangle of systems modelling-based tools in cities. that forms the centre of the Middle The following presents a case study3 on Franconian agglomeration. This the German city of Fürth, which is highly agglomeration is also the heart of the indebted, and sought to innovate a European Metropolitan Region solution via professional consultancy and a Nürnberg, with a total of 3.5 million fundamental systemic analysis of the city’s inhabitants. As with most European cities, options. Other cities under examination Fürth experienced its most rapid growth are: St. Veit, Austria; Si Ping, China; Belo during industrialisation, and today has 92 Journal of Urban Regeneration and Renewal Vol. 6, 1, 91–100 ᭧ Henry Stewart Publications 1752-9638 (2012) Mieg:JSC page.qxd 05/10/2012 11:50 Page 93 City development under constraints 115,000 inhabitants and is considered a administration, including all major city. heads-of-department, those in charge of Economically, the brewery sector and finances, as well as the Mayor himself. the games industry are of great historical Politicians from the city parliament were and contemporary significance in the not included. The workshop was guided region. Until recently, Fürth was host to by the question: ‘From today on, how can the headquarters of Europe’s largest mail we develop the operability of the city of order company, Quelle GmbH; however, Fürth in all areas, in order to permanently the company is currently in liquidation, and effectively remove the structural greatly affecting local business tax deficit of e30 million by 2013?’. The revenues. Fürth also considers itself an target for the syntegration workshop was emerging research centre, with to identify savings of e13 million; dependence on the Fraunhofer Institute as following the syntegration workshop, well as several solar and material science potential sustainable savings approaching companies. e21 million were identified (Ammon, S., Fürth was traditionally regarded as a personal communication, June 2012). workers’ city and continues to struggle The syntegration workshop was with low educational attainment, lack of accompanied by a systemic analysis of skilled workers and a large out-commuter Fürth. The modelling exercise was based quota of the proportion that are highly on the sensitivity model approach of skilled. Combined with enduring Frederic Vester,4 which encompasses economic change, all of this results in a impact factors within a system and defines massive household deficit that has their interrelations. Sensitivity modelling paralysed the city in recent years. A series has its roots in the pioneering works of Jay of failed attempts were previously made to Wright Forrester of MIT, who, as early as consolidate the city budget, which were 1969, tried to apply systems thinking to initiated internally, and also through the cities.5,6 It is used for studies of land-use use of external consultancies. The decision planning: for instance, by the ETH to try the systemic approach was a (Zürich) or the Graduate Institute of ‘last-ditch effort’ in an attempt to avoid a Urban Planning (National Chung-Hsing ‘lawnmower’ policy, under which the University, Taipei).7